香港交易所信息显示，德意志银行在理想汽车-W的持股比例于4月14日从17.03%降至16.70%。 ...

数据统计显示，中证港美上市全球智能驾驶主题指数近一个月下跌10.79%，近三个月下跌18.03%，年 至今下跌18.28%。 据了解，中证港美上市全球智能驾驶主题指数从中国香港和美国市场上市的证券中选取50只业务涉及感 知定位、决策规划、控制执行以及车联网等智能驾驶相关领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映中国 香港和美国市场上市的智能驾驶主题上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2016年12月30日为基日，以 1000.0点为基点。 金融界4月14日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证港美上市全球智能驾驶主题指数 (港美智能驾驶， 931901)报5531.79点。 从指数持仓来看，中证港美上市全球智能驾驶主题指数十大权重分别为：NVIDIA Corp（9.98%）、小 鹏汽车-W（9.95%）、理想汽车-W（9.21%）、Tesla Motors Inc（8.08%）、Marvell Technology Group Ltd（6.23%）、Rivian Automotive Inc.（5.01%）、Lucid Group Inc（4.03%）、舜宇光学科技 （3.46%）、Aurora Innovation Inc.（ ...

理想汽車 ( 於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的 有限責任公司 ) 股份代號 : 2015 2024 年度報告 目錄 | 公司資料 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 財務表現摘要 | 3 | | 業務回顧及前景 | 5 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 9 | | 董事會報告 | 14 | | 董事及高級管理層 | 33 | | 企業管治 | 38 | | 其他資料 | 57 | | 獨立核數師報告 | 73 | | 合併資產負債表 | 77 | | 合併綜合收益表 | 79 | | 合併股東權益變動表 | 81 | | 合併現金流量表 | 82 | | 合併財務報表附註 | 84 | | 五年財務摘要 | 159 | | 釋義 | 160 | 2024年度報告 2 公司資料 執行董事 李想先生 （董事長、首席執行官兼創始人） 李鐵先生 馬東輝先生 非執行董事 王興先生 樊錚先生 獨立非執行董事 肖星教授 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 審計委員會 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 肖星教授 （主席） 薪酬委員會 李想先生 姜震宇先生 趙宏強先生 （主席） 提名及企業管治委員會 肖星教授 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 （主席 ...

2025 年 03 月 22 日 理想汽车-W (02015) 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com ——25 年重点：纯电陆续登场，继续深耕智驾，开启海外 拓展 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 101.30 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8742.44 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 138.30/68.65 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,168.71 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,785.07 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0831 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -49% 1% 51% 101% HSCEI 理想汽车-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 联系人 樊夏沛 (8621)23297818× fanxp@swsresearch.com 投资要点：公司发布 2024 年年报，公司全年实现营收 1444.6 亿元，同比+16.64%；实现归 母净利润80.32亿元，同比-31.37%。24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a gradual ramp-up in its pure electric product cycle, with accelerated iterations in intelligent driving technology enhancing product competitiveness [1][3]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 44.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% for the full year, but a decline in net profit by 31.9% [1]. - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, with vehicle gross margin at 19.7%, impacted by changes in product mix and pricing strategies [1]. Sales and Store Situation - Total sales for Q4 2024 reached 158,696 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with annual sales of 500,508 units, up 33.1% [2]. - The company holds a 15.3% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above new energy vehicle segment, leading among domestic brands [2]. - By the end of 2024, the company plans to increase its retail presence to 3,700 locations, with significant expansions in service and charging infrastructure [2]. Intelligent Driving - The focus for 2025 will be on further upgrades to intelligent driving software and hardware, aiming to enhance product strength and competitiveness [3]. - The introduction of the MindVLA architecture aims to create a more integrated driving experience, potentially expanding the company's market reach [3]. Product Cycle and Technological Innovation - The company is set to launch new models in the L series and MEGA intelligent driving in the first half of 2025, with additional electric SUV models expected in the second half [4]. - Upgrades to the AD Max system will transition from dual Orin-X chips to a single Thor-U chip, enhancing driving assistance capabilities [4]. - The report suggests that the combination of product cycles and technological innovations may lead to exceeding sales expectations [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 132, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 105.1 [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 144.46 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6%, while net profit decreased by 31% to RMB 8.03 billion [2][4] - The key focus for the second half of 2024 will be the launch of new electric models I8 and I6, along with the application of the next-generation autonomous driving architecture, Mind VLA [4][3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3% [2] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 3.5 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.3% but a year-on-year decline of 38.6% [2] - The company anticipates Q1 2025 sales volume to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [2] Product Launches - The I8 model, a six-seat mid-size SUV, is set to debut at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April and will be launched in July [4] - The I8 will feature a 102.7 kWh battery from CATL and support 5C fast charging technology, allowing for a 500 km range in just 10 minutes [4] - The I6 is planned for release in the fourth quarter of 2024, further expanding the company's electric vehicle lineup [4] Market Position and Strategy - As of February, the company delivered 26,000 vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7%, although there was a month-on-month decline of 12% due to the shortened delivery cycle during the Spring Festival [3] - The company has established a robust charging network with 1,874 Ideal Supercharging stations and 10,000 charging piles across 150 cities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto-W (02015) has experienced a decline of over 3% due to a lack of significant new products in the first half of the year, impacting short-term performance [1] Financial Performance - Li Auto-W's stock price fell by 3.57%, reaching HKD 108.2, with a trading volume of HKD 819 million [1] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 19% and 16% respectively, reflecting the impact of the absence of major new products in the first half of the year [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit CAGR is projected to reach 24.2% from 2024 to 2027 [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expected to strengthen its product cycle with updates to the smart driving version and the launch of pure electric vehicles [1] - Li Auto-W plans to release the L series smart driving updated version in May and two new pure electric models starting in July [1] - The company aims to expand its market presence by increasing coverage in fourth and fifth-tier cities [1] International Expansion - Li Auto-W has made progress in Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific markets and plans to increase investments in Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe [1] - The short-term strategy focuses on parallel exports, with large-scale volume expected to begin in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][19]. Core Insights - Li Auto's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 144.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8 billion, down 31% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 net profit at RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are anticipated to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7%. Total revenue for this period is expected to be between RMB 23.4 billion and RMB 24.7 billion, down 8.7% to 3.5% year-on-year [3][10]. Financial Data Summary - Key financial metrics for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2023: 123,851; 2024: 144,460; 2025E: 189,483; 2026E: 210,516; 2027E: 230,781, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, 31.2%, 11.1%, and 9.6% respectively [2][3]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): 2023: 11,704; 2024: 8,032; 2025E: 13,146; 2026E: 15,434; 2027E: 17,955, with year-on-year growth rates of 681.7%, -31.4%, 63.7%, 16.6%, and 15.9% respectively [2][3]. - Fully Diluted EPS (in RMB): 2023: 5.52; 2024: 3.79; 2025E: 6.19; 2026E: 7.27; 2027E: 8.46 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing user experience through intensive OTA upgrades, which have led to an increase in the order proportion of the ADMax version, particularly in models priced above RMB 300,000 [3][10]. - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, in July 2025, as part of its dual-energy strategy, while also expanding its charging network with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging poles by February 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Li Auto (2015 HK) Core Insights - MindVLA is a significant technological advancement for Li Auto, transforming traditional vehicles into intelligent systems capable of autonomous decision-making and high-level intelligence [2][7] - The integration of visual, linguistic, and behavioral intelligence within the MindVLA system enhances the vehicle's ability to assess complex traffic scenarios and make rapid, safe decisions [2][8] - The next-generation VLA model introduces an action feedback module, achieving full-process closed-loop optimization from perception to execution, which significantly improves response times and safety in complex traffic environments [3][9] Summary by Sections Event - On March 18, during NVIDIA's GTC2025, Li Auto's head of intelligent driving presented the latest progress on MindVLA, with plans to launch it alongside the pure-electric SUV, Li Auto I8, this year [1][6] Comments - MindVLA represents a leap in technology, enabling vehicles to evolve into physical intelligent agents with advanced cognitive and decision-making capabilities [2][7] - The system utilizes a 3D Gaussian intermediate representation for spatial encoding and employs self-supervised learning to enhance decision-making in complex environments [2][8] - The combination of diffusion models with ODE-based samplers optimizes trajectory prediction, improving real-time responsiveness and adaptability [2][8] VLA Model Comparison - The next-generation VLA model outperforms existing end-to-end + VLM systems by integrating an action feedback module, allowing for real-time data fusion and intelligent decision-making [3][9] - This model enhances the vehicle's ability to predict risks and adjust strategies quickly, thereby improving overall robustness and safety [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]