Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 113.20 per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of CNY 144.46 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 8.03 billion, a decrease of 32.0% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is focusing on electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, with new models set to launch in 2025, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7][8]. Revenue Summary - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached CNY 44.27 billion, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.1% and 3.3%, respectively. The automotive business revenue was approximately CNY 42.64 billion, also showing growth [1][2]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased slightly from CNY 270,000 in Q3 2024 to CNY 269,000 in Q4 2024, influenced by changes in product mix and customer interest subsidies [2][3]. Profit Summary - The automotive business gross profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 8.39 billion, with a gross margin of 19.7%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The operating profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 3.70 billion, with an operating margin of 8.4%, showing slight improvements year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 8.7 billion in Q4 2024, with free cash flow of CNY 6.1 billion [6]. - As of March 11, 2025, the company has established a robust charging network with 1,900 supercharging stations and 10,160 charging piles across 31 provinces and 214 cities [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are CNY 165.36 billion, CNY 202.45 billion, and CNY 222.69 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to grow significantly [8][10].

理想汽车（2015.HK）系列点评六 1.理想汽车（2015.HK）系列点评五：2024Q 3 毛利亮眼 智驾加速推进-2024/11/01 2.理想汽车（2015.HK）系列点评四：2024Q 2 毛利超预期 智驾加速推进-2024/08/30 3.理想汽车系列点评三：2024Q1 毛利维持健 康 静待纯电产品优化-2024/05/22 4.理想汽车系列点评二：理想 MEGA 发布 再 续强势产品周期-2024/03/02 5.理想汽车系列点评一：2023Q4 业绩大超预 期 新品周期持续强势-2024/02/28 ➢ 营收稳定增长 毛利保持健康 营 收 端 ： 2024Q4 公 司 总 营 收 为 442.7 亿 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +6.1%/+3.3%；其中 2024Q4 汽车业务收入约为 426.4 亿元，同比/环比分别为 +5.6%/+3.2%。车辆销售收入较 2023 年四季度及 2024 年三季度车辆销售收入 增长均主要由于交付量增加，但前者因产品组合变化、后者因客户利息补贴致使 平均售价下滑，部分抵消了增长态势。整体 ASP 由 2024Q3 的 27.0 万元下降至 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.20 HKD per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 144.46 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.03 billion RMB, a decrease of 32.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company is focusing on electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, with new models set to launch in 2025, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7][8]. - The company has a strong cash reserve and is continuously investing in charging infrastructure, with 1,900 supercharging stations and over 10,000 charging piles established across 31 provinces and 214 cities as of March 2025 [6][8]. Revenue Summary - In Q4 2024, the total revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The automotive business revenue was approximately 42.64 billion RMB, also showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2][3]. - The total vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 amounted to 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2][3]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit for the automotive business in Q4 2024 was 8.39 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 19.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The operating profit for Q4 2024 was 3.70 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 8.4%, showing an improvement of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with corresponding revenue expected to be around 23.4 billion to 24.7 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year decline of 8.7% to 3.5% [6][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 165.36 billion, 202.45 billion, and 222.69 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 10.11 billion, 13.46 billion, and 16.54 billion RMB [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is expanding its product matrix with two new electric SUVs, the Li Auto i8 and i6, set to launch in July 2025 and the second half of 2025 respectively [3] - The company aims to enhance its high-level autonomous driving capabilities alongside the new vehicle launches [3] - The company plans to increase its supercharging station network to 4,000 by the end of 2025, starting with 2,500 stations at the launch of the Li Auto i8 [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 144.46 billion RMB, 172.86 billion RMB, 236.56 billion RMB, and 275.05 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 16.64%, 19.66%, 36.85%, and 16.27% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 11.70 billion RMB, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 681.65% [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.38 billion RMB, 14.49 billion RMB, and 17.51 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 16.79%, 54.41%, and 20.86% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 5.52 RMB, with forecasts of 3.79 RMB, 4.42 RMB, 6.83 RMB, and 8.25 RMB for the following years [4]

买入（维持评级） 3 月 14 日，理想汽车发布 24Q4 及 24 年全年财报： 1、营收：Q4 公司交付 15.9 万台，同/环比+20.4%/+3.8%。其中 L6/7/8/9/M 销量分别为 7.8/3.6/2.1/2.0/0.3 万辆，L6 占比 49%， 环比基本持平。Q4 营收 442.7 亿元，同/环比+6.1%/+3.3%；其中汽 车业务营收 426.4 亿元，同/环比+5.6%/+3.2%；我们计算 Q4 单车 ASP 26.9 万元，同/环比-12.3%/-3.8%。24 年全年，公司累计销售 50 万辆，同比+33.6%，营收 1444.6 亿元，同比+16.6%，单车 ASP 27.7 万元，同比-13.8%。 2、费用：Q4 研发&SGA 费用分别为 24.1/30.8 亿元，研发&SGA 费用 率 5.4%/4.9%，环比-0.6pct/-1.9pct，环比连续下滑。 3、利润：1） Q3 毛利率 20.3%，同/环比-3.2pct/-1.3pct；其中汽 车业务毛利率 19.7%，同/环比-3.1pct/+1.3pct；24 年全年，公司 毛利率/汽车业务毛利率分别为 20.5 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 144.46 billion, representing a 16.6% increase compared to RMB 123.85 billion in 2023[5] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 was RMB 10.67 billion, a decrease of 12.5% from RMB 12.20 billion in 2023[5] - The company’s operating profit for 2024 was RMB 7.02 billion, reflecting a decrease of 5.2% from RMB 7.41 billion in 2023[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.03 billion in 2024, a decline of about 31.5%[28] - Vehicle sales revenue increased from RMB 120.29 billion in 2023 to RMB 138.54 billion in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 15.7%[28] - Gross profit increased from RMB 27.50 billion in 2023 to RMB 29.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 7.9%[28] - Basic earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4.03, down from RMB 5.95 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 32.3%[90] Delivery and Market Performance - The total delivery volume for 2024 was 500,508 vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.1% and achieving the fastest record for a luxury car brand in China to exceed 500,000 annual deliveries[10] - The cumulative delivery volume reached 1,133,872 vehicles by December 31, 2024, making it the first Chinese new energy vehicle brand to achieve over 1 million cumulative deliveries[10] - The company achieved a market share of 15.3% in the new energy vehicle market priced at RMB 200,000 and above, ranking first among Chinese automotive brands[10] - The ideal MEGA became the best-selling new energy MPV priced above RMB 500,000 in China for 2024[13] Research and Development - Research and development expenditure for 2024 amounted to RMB 11.1 billion, accounting for 7.7% of total revenue[14] - The company launched two new vehicle models in 2024, enhancing its product matrix and user experience, with five models covering price ranges from RMB 200,000 to 600,000[11] - The company conducted 19 OTA upgrades in 2024, adding 310 new features and optimizing 324 existing features to enhance product intelligence and safety[12] - The company plans to continue investing in research and development, with R&D expenses projected to increase to RMB 11,071,358 in 2024 from RMB 10,586,129 in 2023[64] Operational Expansion - The company expanded its sales and service network, achieving over 3,700 retail centers by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%[19] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had established 1,727 supercharging stations with 9,100 charging piles, making it the largest high-speed supercharging network in the country[21] Financial Position and Debt - Cash position increased by 8.8% from RMB 103.7 billion as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 112.8 billion as of December 31, 2024[38] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.1% as of December 31, 2024, down from 57.8% as of December 31, 2023[43] - Long-term borrowings rose significantly to RMB 8,151,598 in 2024 from RMB 1,747,070 in 2023, an increase of 366.5%[68] - The company’s total borrowings as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 8,722,469 thousand, slightly decreasing to RMB 8,432,700 thousand by December 31, 2024[82] Corporate Governance - The company has established three committees: Audit Committee, Remuneration Committee, and Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee to oversee specific areas of the company's affairs[52] - The Audit Committee consists of three independent non-executive directors, ensuring proper oversight of financial reporting and risk management[53] - The Remuneration Committee is responsible for reviewing and recommending the remuneration of directors and senior management, ensuring alignment with performance[55] - The Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee ensures that the company's operations and management align with the interests of all shareholders and compliance with the Listing Rules[56] Legal and Compliance - The company has not engaged in any major litigation or arbitration that could significantly adversely affect its financial condition or operating results as of December 31, 2024[60] - The company is currently involved in two class action lawsuits in the U.S. related to alleged false statements regarding its business prospects, which may impact its operations[61] - The company has not proposed any annual dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024[63] Taxation and Regulatory - The company is subject to a 25% corporate income tax rate on global income if deemed a resident enterprise under Chinese tax law[96] - R&D expenses can be deducted at a rate of 200% until further notice, as announced by the State Taxation Administration[97] - The company must pay a 3% consumption tax on sales of extended-range electric vehicles[102]

Vehicle Deliveries and Sales - In Q4 2024, total vehicle deliveries reached 158,696 units, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.4%[9] - For the full year 2024, total vehicle deliveries amounted to 500,508 units, a growth of 33.1% compared to 376,030 units in 2023[9] - The company achieved a record annual delivery volume exceeding 500,000 vehicles, becoming the first Chinese luxury car brand to reach this milestone[21] - In January and February 2025, the company delivered 29,927 and 26,263 vehicles respectively, with a total of 500 retail centers and 488 after-sales service centers across 150 and 224 cities[18] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 vehicle sales revenue was RMB 42.6 billion (USD 5.8 billion), up 5.6% from RMB 40.4 billion in Q4 2023[10] - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 44.3 billion (USD 6.1 billion), an increase of 6.1% from RMB 41.7 billion in Q4 2023[10] - The total vehicle sales revenue for 2024 was RMB 138.5 billion (USD 19 billion), a 15.2% increase from RMB 120.3 billion in 2023[16] - The total revenue for 2024 was RMB 144.5 billion (USD 19.8 billion), reflecting a 16.6% increase from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023[16] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 8.0 billion (USD 1.1 billion), a decrease of 31.9% from RMB 11.8 billion in 2023[16] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 3.5 billion (USD 484.0 million), a decrease of 38.6% compared to Q4 2023, but an increase of 25.3% from Q3 2024[12] - The diluted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) for Q4 2024 was RMB 3.31 (USD 0.45), down 37.8% year-over-year but up 24.4% quarter-over-quarter[13] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 9.0 billion (USD 1.2 billion), down 8.3% from RMB 9.8 billion in Q4 2023[10] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, compared to 23.5% in Q4 2023[10] - The operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 3.7 billion (USD 507.4 million), an increase of 22.0% year-over-year and 7.9% quarter-over-quarter[12] - The operating profit margin for 2024 was 4.9%, down from 6.0% in 2023[16] - The gross margin for vehicle sales in 2024 was 19.8%, a decrease from 21.5% in 2023[16] Cash Flow and Expenses - The operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was RMB 8.7 billion (USD 1.2 billion), a decrease of 49.8% year-over-year[12] - The free cash flow for Q4 2024 was RMB 6.1 billion (USD 830.1 million), down 58.6% from RMB 14.6 billion in Q4 2023[12] - The R&D expenses for 2024 were RMB 11.1 billion (USD 1.5 billion), an increase of 4.6% from RMB 10.6 billion in 2023, primarily due to costs associated with expanding the product portfolio and technology[36] Market Presence and Future Plans - As of December 31, 2024, the company operated 502 retail centers across 150 cities and 478 after-sales service centers in 225 cities[7] - The company has established 1,727 Ideal Supercharging stations equipped with 9,100 charging piles[7] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings in the future[4] - The company plans to launch next-generation intelligent driving technology and new electric vehicle models in 2025 to enhance its product matrix[21] Research and Development - The company’s R&D efforts are primarily focused on its unique range extension system and innovative electric vehicle technologies[46] - The company is a leader in China's new energy vehicle market, focusing on the design, research, development, manufacturing, and sales of luxury smart electric vehicles[46] - The company has successfully commercialized range-extended electric vehicles while also developing a pure electric platform[46] Financial Position - As of the end of 2024, cash reserves reached RMB 112.8 billion, providing a solid foundation for future growth[21] - The cash position as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 112.8 billion (USD 15.5 billion)[31] - Total assets increased to RMB 162.35 billion from RMB 143.47 billion, representing a growth of approximately 13.0% year-over-year[52] - Total liabilities rose to RMB 91.03 billion from RMB 82.89 billion, marking an increase of around 9.7%[52] Employee and Operational Metrics - The total number of employees as of December 31, 2024, was 32,248[38] - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 11,809,125,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 8,045,250,000 in 2022, representing a year-over-year growth of 46.5%[54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In February 2025, the company achieved sales of 26,263 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.2%. Cumulative sales for January and February reached 56,000 units, up 9.3% year-on-year. The company’s product advantages and brand design are well recognized, and the future vehicle planning is clear, indicating significant sales potential [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February 2025 sales reached 26,263 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.2%. Cumulative sales for the first two months of 2025 were 56,000 units, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year growth [2][4]. Product Development - The company announced its first pure electric SUV, the i8, on February 25, 2025. The i8 is positioned as a six-seat pure electric vehicle, with a design that bridges the L series and MEGA models. This new vehicle cycle is expected to enhance sales [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Dual Energy Strategy" is expected to further enhance the company's competitive edge. As of February 28, 2025, the company has over 10,000 charging piles and 1,874 supercharging stations, with ongoing improvements in smart technology to enhance user experience [7]. Future Outlook - The company has a clear vehicle planning strategy, with a product matrix that includes four range-extended electric models and one high-voltage pure electric model, covering the market above 200,000. The ongoing expansion of direct sales channels and the opening of new retail centers are expected to drive future sales growth [7]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 76.4 billion, 142.1 billion, and 195.6 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.1X, 16.2X, and 11.8X. The non-GAAP net profit projections are 106.4 billion, 147.1 billion, and 195.6 billion, with PE ratios of 21.6X, 15.6X, and 11.8X [7].

证券研究报告 2025年03月11日 乘用车 理想汽车（2015.HK）专题报告：从汽车到人工智能，公司 有望重估 评级：买入(上调) -57% -35% -13% 8% 30% 52% 2024/03/11 理想汽车-W 恒生指数 市场数据 2025/03/11 当前价格（港元） 113.00 52周价格区间（港元） 68.65-156.70 总市值（百万元） 225,435.61 流通市值（百万元） 225,435.61 总股本（万股） 199,500.54 流通股本（万股） 199,500.54 日均成交额（百万元） 2,374.99 近一月换手（%） 1.46 相关报告 | 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q3财报点评：2024Q3业绩环比增长，智驾持续加 | | --- | | 速（增持）*乘用车*戴畅》——2024-11-05 | | 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q2财报点评：2024Q2业绩环比增长，智驾持续加 | | 速（增持）*乘用车*戴畅》——2024-09-02 | | 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1点评报告：2024Q1销量业绩环比承压，新品上 | | 市静待反弹 ...

港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：2 月销量 2.6 万辆，官宣纯电 SUV i8 外观，期待后续新车周期开启 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 理想 2025 年 2 月销量 2.6 万辆，同比增长 29.7%，环比下降 12.2%。理想汽车产品优势和品 牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理 想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 事件评论 理想汽车智驾技术持续领先，产品优势和品牌设计深入人心，"双能战略"有望进一步扩 大理想汽车的优势。行业智驾渗透率提速，理想智驾持续迭代领先有望最大受益，后续新 车型陆续上市将进一步完善理想产品矩阵，提升理想整体销量空间，高单车售价叠加规模 效应有望保持较好盈利水平，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润（GAAP）分别为 76.4、142.1、 195.6 ...