Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 144.46 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6% [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 12.198 billion CNY, showing a staggering year-on-year increase of 58,494.3%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.671 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 12.5% [5] - The gross margin for 2023 was 22%, with projections of 21% for 2024, 20% for 2025, and a return to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [5] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车年报点评：毛利率短期受优惠政策影响 有所波动，看好后续新车周期贡献增量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4 理想销量 15.9 万辆，同比+20.4%，环比+3.8%，实现营收 442.7 亿元，同比+6.1%， 环比+3.3%，车辆毛利率达 19.7%，同比-3.0pct，环比-1.2pct。理想汽车产品优势和品牌设计 深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理想汽 车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SFC：BUW101 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车年2] 报点评：毛利率短期受优惠政策影 响有所波动，看好后续新车周期贡献增量 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想汽车四季度实现营收 442.7 亿元，同比+6.1%；实现归母净利润 35.2 亿元，同比-37.7%。 事件评论 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC ...

25H2 i8、i6 陆续上市，i8 上市时将建厂 2500 座超充站 证券研究报告 理想汽车-W (2015 HK) 港股通 Q4 营收攀新高，纯电+智驾双擎发 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 17 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 公司 24 年营收/归母净利 1445/80 亿，同比+17%/-32%，毛利率 20.5%； 24Q4 营收/归母净利 443/35 亿，同比+6%/-38%。24 全年归母净利超我们 此前预测 30%，系 24Q4 交付量 15.8 万辆创新高。25 年 L 智驾系列焕新及 纯电 SUV i8、i6 预计上市，VLA 模型上车，维持"买入"评级。 24Q4 营收创新高，费用控制进一步改善 24Q4 营收 443 亿元，同/环比+6%/3%。同环比增长系 Q4 交付创历史新高。 24Q4 毛利率为 20%，同/环比-3pct/-1pct，毛利率下滑系产品结构及终端政 策变化。费用端，24Q4 SG&A 费用 31 亿元，同/环比-6%/-8%，运营效率 提升。研发费用 24 亿元，同/环 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 理想汽车-W(02015.HK) 24Q4 业绩符合预期，智驾布局加速、期待纯电新品周期 事件：理想汽车发布 2024Q4 业绩，2024Q4 实现营业收入 443 亿元（符 合此前指引中枢），同比+6%、环比+3%；净利润 35 亿元，同比-39%、环比 +25%；Non-GAAP 净利润 40 亿元，同比-12%、环比+5%。全年实现营业收入 1445 亿元，同比增加 17%，实现净利润 80 亿元、同比-32%，Non-GAAP 净 利润 107 亿元、同比-13%。 营业利润再创历史新高，单车利润环比增长。 受益补贴和权益放大，Q4 交付量提升带动营收增长。 2024Q4 公司汽车业务实现营收 426 亿元，同比+6%，环比+3%。24Q4 汽车交 付量为 15.9 万辆，同比+20%，环比+4%，报告期内受益于国补地补政策以 及终端权益放大（11 月 29 日推出全系 3 年 0 息方案），交付量及汽车业务 营收实现同环比增长。 受产品结构及权益放大影响，单车 ASP、毛利率有所下滑。 2024Q4 单车 ASP 约为 26.9 万元，同比下滑 3.8 万元、环比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company showed a slight decline in gross margin in Q4, but net profit exceeded expectations, with Q4 sales reaching 159,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [1] - The company is expected to launch new electric models and enhance its smart driving capabilities, which are anticipated to drive future sales growth [2] - The domestic sales channels are being optimized, and overseas expansion is accelerating, with significant progress in establishing retail centers and service centers in various regions [3] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [1] - The company forecasts Q1 deliveries between 88,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with expected revenue of 23.4 to 24.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% to 3.5% [1] - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company projects sales of approximately 600,000, 780,000, and 880,000 units, with total revenues reaching 159.9 billion, 202.2 billion, and 238.1 billion RMB respectively [4][5] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its electric vehicle offerings with the launch of the L series and MEGA models, as well as the i8 electric SUV, which is expected to be released in July [2] - The company is also preparing for extensive charging infrastructure, aiming to establish over 2,000 supercharging stations by Q1 2025, with plans to increase this number to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [2] - The report indicates that the company is making significant strides in optimizing its domestic retail presence, increasing the proportion of automotive city stores from 24% to 42% by the end of 2024 [3]

汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 理想汽车-W(2015.HK) 纯电节奏明确，智驾迭代再加速 推荐（维持） 股价：113.2 元（港币） 主要数据 | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | ir.lixiang.com | | 大股东/持股 | | | 实际控制人 | 李想 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2122.02 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 2217.24 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 33.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 56.07 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 公司发布 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 revenue reached 44.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%. The total vehicle deliveries for Q4 were 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [1][3]. - The company experienced a slight decline in gross margin, attributed to one-time settlements with suppliers, but overall performance met expectations. The net profit for the year 2024 is projected to be 10.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to face short-term pressure in 2025 due to increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment, but new electric vehicle launches are anticipated to drive future growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - Q4 2024 saw a total revenue of 442.7 billion yuan, with automotive revenue contributing 426.4 billion yuan. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 269,000 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 20.3%, with a slight decline expected for the full year 2024, where the gross margin is projected at 20.5% [2][4]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.4%, down from the previous year [2][4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts vehicle deliveries of 88,000 to 93,000 units in Q1 2025, with expected revenue between 23.4 billion and 24.7 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline [3]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.49 billion, 17.32 billion, and 24.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.2, 13.8, and 9.8 [4][7]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the extended-range vehicle market, which may impact the company's short-term performance [5]. - The company’s strategic focus on intelligent driving, AI, and robotics is expected to enhance its long-term growth potential despite current pressures [4].

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 123851 | 144460 | 172860 | 236560 | 275050 | | 同比(%) | 173.48 | 16.64 | 19.66 | 36.85 | 16.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11704 | 8032 | 9381 | 14485 | 17506 | | 同比(%) | 681.65 | (31.37) | 16.79 | 54.41 | 20.86 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 5.52 | 3.79 | 4.42 | 6.83 | 8.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.11 | 27.85 | 23.85 | 15.44 | 12.78 | 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 2024Q4 季报点评：Q4 业绩符合预期，持续 扩容产品矩阵，进阶高阶智驾能力 买入（维 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expanding its product matrix with two new electric SUVs set to launch in 2025, enhancing its advanced driving capabilities [3] - The company aims to establish 2,500 supercharging stations by the time the new model i8 is released, with plans to increase this to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 144.46 billion RMB, 172.86 billion RMB, 236.56 billion RMB, and 275.05 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.64%, 19.66%, 36.85%, and 16.27% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 11.70 billion RMB, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 681.65% [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.38 billion RMB, 14.49 billion RMB, and 17.51 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.79%, 54.41%, and 20.86% respectively [4] - The report projects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 4.42 RMB, 6.83 RMB, and 8.25 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.85, 15.44, and 12.78 [4]