Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" [8] Core Views - Meituan is a leader in local lifestyle services, with stable growth in food delivery, optimized in-store competition, and significant growth in flash purchase services [1] - The report anticipates that advertising revenue will enhance user experience (UE) optimization, driving profitability in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The competition with Douyin in the in-store business is expected to stabilize, with Meituan maintaining a strong user base and merchant resources [5][6] - Flash purchase services are projected to accelerate penetration into lower-tier markets, with significant growth in order volume [7][12] Summary by Sections 1. Delivery Business - Healthy growth in food delivery orders is driven by high penetration and favorable weather conditions, with expectations for advertising revenue to enhance UE [2] - The potential for increased profitability in food delivery lies in improving the advertising monetization rate [3] - There remains room for growth in order volume through repeat purchases and promotional strategies targeting both high and low-tier cities [3][4] 2. In-store Business - The in-store travel and dining segment has ample growth potential, with a competitive landscape that allows for differentiated strategies [5] - Meituan's user mindset and merchant resource base are solid, maintaining a competitive edge against Douyin [6] 3. Flash Purchase Business - The flash purchase segment is expanding rapidly, with a focus on potential categories and deeper market penetration [7][12] - The model of "flash warehouses" is particularly suited for lower-tier markets, enhancing order volume significantly [12] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 337.01 billion, CNY 390.99 billion, and CNY 449.64 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.78%, 16.02%, and 15.00% [15][20] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 431.71 billion, CNY 540.59 billion, and CNY 715.64 billion for the same years, reflecting substantial growth [15][20] 5. Valuation and Target Price - The target market capitalization for Meituan is set at CNY 1,081.2 billion, with an expected upside of approximately 17% based on a 20X NON-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) with a 6-month target price [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue and profits exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - Revenue: 93.6 billion RMB, 1.7% above consensus [1] - EBIT: 13.7 billion RMB, 41.0% above consensus [1] - Adjusted net profit: 12.8 billion RMB, 10.1% above consensus [1] Business Segment Performance Core Local Commerce - Revenue: 69.4 billion RMB, 1.5% above consensus [1] - Delivery service: 27.8 billion RMB [1] - Commission income: 26.1 billion RMB [1] - Online marketing: 13.4 billion RMB [1] - Operating profit: 14.6 billion RMB, 13.7% above consensus [1] Food Delivery - On-demand delivery orders grew 14.5% YoY [1] - Improved operational efficiency and user experience for Pinhaofan [1] - Expanded brand satellite stores with comprehensive online support [1] Meituan Instant Retail - User base and purchase frequency achieved double-digit YoY growth [1] - Increased night orders and faster growth in lower-tier markets [1] - Expanded Meituan Instant Retail warehouses to more lower-tier markets [1] In-store, Hotel & Travel - Order volume grew over 50% YoY [1] - Record high annual transacting users and active merchants [1] - Domestic hotel room nights showed steady growth [1] - "Shen Membership" program expanded nationwide [1] New Initiatives - Revenue: 24.2 billion RMB, 3.9% above consensus [1] - Operating loss: 1.03 billion RMB, 44.0% better than consensus [1] - Meituan Select continued to narrow losses quarter-over-quarter [1] - Other new initiatives achieved collective profitability in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026: 3,363/3,880/4,336 billion RMB [1] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026: 417/516/611 billion RMB [1] Competitive Advantages - Strong merchant base and decades of accumulated user reviews [1] - Solid barriers in food delivery business [1] - Clear external competitive landscape [1] - Continuous improvement in core local commerce profitability [1] - Successful reduction of losses in new initiatives [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [2][3] Core Views - Meituan reported 3Q24 revenue of RMB 93 6 billion, a YoY increase of 22 4% [3] - The company's core local commerce segment saw operating profit grow by 44 4% to RMB 14 6 billion, with an operating margin of 21 0%, up 3 5 percentage points YoY [4] - Meituan's new business segment achieved revenue of RMB 24 2 billion, a YoY increase of 28 9%, with operating losses narrowing by 79 9% to RMB 1 0 billion [4] - The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 42 5 billion as of September 30, 2024 [3] Operational Highlights - Meituan's instant delivery transaction volume reached 7 08 billion orders in 3Q24, a YoY increase of 14 5% [3] - Meituan Flash Delivery expanded to more lower-tier markets, with major retailers accelerating their presence [4] - The domestic hotel room nights continued to grow steadily, with the company collaborating with suppliers to offer more diverse options [4] - Meituan Youxuan's losses continued to narrow sequentially, while other new businesses achieved profitability as a whole in 3Q24 [4] - Keeta was officially launched in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in October [4] Financial Performance - Meituan's total expenses in 3Q24 were RMB 26 0 billion, with an expense ratio of 27 83%, down 4 55 percentage points YoY [4] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 6 2% to RMB 18 0 billion, but the expense ratio decreased by 2 9 percentage points to 19 2% [4] - R&D investment remained stable at RMB 5 3 billion, with the expense ratio decreasing by 1 3 percentage points to 5 7% [4] - Administrative expenses increased by 10 2% to RMB 2 8 billion, with the expense ratio remaining stable at 3 0% [4] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 15 2 billion in 3Q24 [4] Financial Projections - Meituan's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 276 7 billion in 2023 to RMB 450 2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 14 43% [5] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 13 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 56 7 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 23 20% [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 38 23% to 38 97% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - Return on equity is expected to be around 22 42% to 22 75% from 2024 to 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Views - Meituan's 3Q24 revenue reached 935.77 billion yuan (YoY +22%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.7% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was 145.29 billion yuan (YoY +135%), 9.0% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Adjusted net profit stood at 128.29 billion yuan (YoY +124%), 10.1% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating profit surged to 136.85 billion yuan (YoY +308%), 41% above Bloomberg consensus [2] Segment Performance Core Local Commerce - Revenue: 693.73 billion yuan (YoY +20%), 1.5% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating profit: 145.82 billion yuan (YoY +44%), 13.7% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0% [2] - Instant delivery orders grew 14.5% YoY to 7.1 billion, with daily orders reaching 77.17 million [2] New Initiatives - Revenue: 242.04 billion yuan (YoY +29%), 3.9% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating loss narrowed to 10.26 billion yuan (YoY +80%), 42.4% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Meituan Flash Shopping daily orders exceeded 10 million, with peak orders reaching 16 million during Qixi Festival [2] - Flash warehouses surpassed 30,000, covering multiple consumer categories [2] In-store, Hotel & Travel - Order volume grew over 50% YoY [2] - Annual transacting users and active merchants reached record highs [2] - "Hotel + X" cross-selling strategy enhanced supply diversification [2] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 3,367/3,857/4,352 billion yuan (previous: 3,344/3,889/4,421 billion yuan) [4] - 2024-2026 adjusted net profit forecast: 423/521/707 billion yuan (previous: 386/522/698 billion yuan) [4] - Revenue growth rates: 22%, 15%, 13% for 2024-2026 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates: 82%, 23%, 36% for 2024-2026 respectively [4] Key Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue: 3,366.99 billion yuan (YoY +22%) [6] - 2024E adjusted net profit: 423.05 billion yuan (YoY +82%) [6] - 2024E EPS: 5.71 yuan [6] - 2024E P/E ratio: 19x [6] Strategic Initiatives - Diversified supply through initiatives like Pinhaofan, Shenqiangshou, and brand satellite stores [2] - Merchant support measures including 6-12 month commission rebates and 1 billion yuan subsidies [2] - AI-powered location services for restaurant merchants [2] - Expansion of flash warehouses to 100,000 by 2027, targeting 200 billion yuan market size [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 215.76 HKD [2][12][11] Core Insights - Overall performance exceeded expectations with Q3 2024 revenue of 936 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 920 billion CNY [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2024 was 136 billion CNY, exceeding the expected 112 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 14.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 128 billion CNY, above the expected 118 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 936 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% [1] - Adjusted operating profit was 136 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 14.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 128 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [1] Core Local Business - Revenue from core local business was 694 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [1] - Adjusted operating profit for this segment was 146 billion CNY, exceeding expectations [1] - The operating profit margin improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 21.0% [1] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 242 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% [1] - Operating loss narrowed to 10 billion CNY, with a loss rate improvement to 4.2% [1] - The report highlights ongoing efforts in overseas markets and community group buying as potential growth areas [1] Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for 2024 to reach 1,670 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit expected to be 39,041 million CNY [6][12] - The target price reflects a valuation of 13,130 billion HKD for the company [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price raised to HK$240.00 from HK$193.00, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HK$172.20 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - Meituan's 3Q24 performance showed stable and sustainable profit growth, with revenue and operating profit growth in the instant delivery segment outpacing order volume growth [6][10]. - The report highlights a healthy growth forecast for the dine-in and travel segments, with expected revenue and operating profit growth of 25% year-on-year in 4Q24 [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in profitability prospects for core local businesses, including food delivery and dine-in services, leading to a projected 23% year-on-year growth in operating profit for 2025 [10][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 336,900 million, with an expected year-on-year growth of 22% [11][17]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 7.47, reflecting a 15% increase from previous estimates [9][17]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 47,348 million, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [11][17]. Segment Performance - The instant delivery segment reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in order volume, with management projecting that flash purchase orders could eventually capture 10% of the Chinese e-commerce market [8][10]. - The dine-in and travel segment saw a 50% increase in order volume in 3Q24, with revenue growth of 25% year-on-year [10][11]. - New business losses narrowed to RMB 10 billion in 3Q24, down from RMB 13 billion in 2Q24, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [10][11]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, estimating the food delivery business at USD 78 billion and the dine-in and travel business at USD 49 billion, both based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2025 [18][20][22]. - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 63 billion, using a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for 2025 [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 93.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing market consensus of 92 billion RMB. Operating profit was 13.7 billion RMB, up 307.5% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 14.6%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion RMB, a 124.0% year-on-year increase, also above market expectations of 11.8 billion RMB [4]. - The core local business revenue was 69.4 billion RMB, growing 20.2% year-on-year, with operating profit of 14.6 billion RMB, up 44.4% year-on-year. The new business segment generated 24.2 billion RMB in revenue, a 28.9% increase, with operating losses narrowing by 79.9% to 1 billion RMB [4]. - The company's instant delivery orders reached 7.1 billion, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with daily average orders hitting 76.93 million. The food delivery segment saw a recovery in average order value, with a decrease in the decline rate compared to previous months [4]. - The company is strategically expanding into overseas markets, with the launch of KeeTa in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, indicating significant growth potential in the local delivery market [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 276.745 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 337.075 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 23.253 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.254 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 90.3% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2024, with adjusted EPS increasing from 3.78 RMB to 7.19 RMB [3][8]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back over 600 million USD worth of stock since early September, amounting to approximately 4.2% of its shares [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) with a target price raised to HKD 220, reflecting strong performance and growth potential in core local commerce [2][26]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 936 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and operating profit of RMB 137 billion, resulting in an operating profit margin of 14.6% [5][26]. - The core local commerce segment continues to show profitability improvements, with revenue of RMB 694 billion in Q3 2024, up 20.2% year-on-year, and an operating profit margin increase to 21.0% [9][26]. - New business initiatives are showing signs of reduced losses, with new business revenue of RMB 242 billion in Q3 2024, up 28.9% year-on-year, and operating losses narrowing to RMB 10 billion [15][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 936 billion, surpassing the expected RMB 917 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 128 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of RMB 117 billion [5][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 134.8% and 124.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 145 billion and RMB 128 billion respectively [5][26]. Core Local Commerce - The core local commerce revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 694 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [9][26]. - Instant delivery transactions reached 7.078 billion orders, with daily average orders at 78.64 million, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase [9][26]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 242 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2% [15][26]. - The company launched its food delivery platform Keeta in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of its ongoing international expansion efforts [15][26]. Market Position and Outlook - Meituan's competitive position in the local life services market remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in both food delivery and local services despite short-term macroeconomic challenges [26][12]. - The report anticipates that Meituan's business will continue to release operational profits, supported by improved governance and management focus on shareholder returns [26][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [1][9]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [1][9]. - The operating profit margin improved to 21.0%, although it slightly decreased from Q2 due to seasonal factors [1][9]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB, with a significant reduction in operating losses to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [1][12]. - The company estimates that the new business, including Meituan Preferred, reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB in Q3, with other new businesses contributing a profit of 600-700 million RMB [1][12]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its instant retail segment, which is expected to account for over 10% of e-commerce market share by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [1][15]. - Meituan is accelerating its overseas expansion, with Keeta entering Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in October, which may increase short-term investments but is expected to open new market opportunities in the long term [1][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Views - The adjusted performance in Q3 continues to show strong growth, with new businesses accelerating their loss reduction. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 93.58 billion RMB (+22.4%), net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+258.0%), and adjusted net profit of 12.83 billion RMB (+124.0%), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][7]. - Core local business revenue growth accelerated, with operating profit margin improving year-on-year. In Q3, core local business revenue reached 69.37 billion RMB (+20.2%), with operating profit of 14.58 billion RMB (+44.4%) and an operating profit margin of 21.0% (+3.5 percentage points) [9][14]. - New business revenue in Q3 was 24.2 billion RMB (+28.9%), with operating losses significantly narrowing to 1.03 billion RMB, down from 5.11 billion RMB in the previous year [12][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 93.58 billion RMB, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 12.83 billion RMB, reflecting a 258.0% increase. Adjusted net profit also reached 12.83 billion RMB, up 124.0% [1][7]. - Core local business revenue grew to 69.37 billion RMB, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 20.9%, 24.3%, and 18.1% respectively [9][14]. - Operating profit for Q3 was 14.58 billion RMB, marking a 44.4% increase, with an operating profit margin of 21.0% [9][14]. New Business Development - New business revenue reached 24.2 billion RMB in Q3, up 28.9%, with operating losses narrowing significantly to 1.03 billion RMB [12][14]. - The company estimates that the Meituan Preferred segment reduced losses to around 1.7 billion RMB, while other new businesses contributed a profit of 600-700 million RMB [12][14]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on sustainable development in the dining and service consumption ecosystem, with plans to accelerate overseas expansion. Meituan's instant retail is expected to capture over 10% of the e-commerce market by 2027, with projected GTV exceeding 200 billion RMB [14][15]. - The company launched the "Prosperity Plan" in September, investing 1 billion RMB to support merchant product and business innovation [14][15].