Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HK$193.00, representing an upside potential of 88% from the current price of HK$102.80 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in key segments, with a significant increase in order volume for the in-store, hotel, and travel business, which saw a year-on-year growth of 60% in Q2 2024. The operating profit margin is expected to improve to 34% due to stabilizing industry competition [6][11]. - The report also notes that the on-demand delivery segment, which includes food delivery and flash purchase, experienced a 14.2% year-on-year increase in order volume in Q2 2024, with total revenue growth estimated at 17% [11][30]. - The report projects that the core local business operating profit will grow by 28% year-on-year in 2024, up from a previous estimate of 16%, driven by improved profitability in food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store services [12][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 334,451 million, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach RMB 44,161 million, a 24% increase [15][26]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 41,503 million, representing a 13% increase from previous estimates [15][26]. Segment Analysis - The in-store, hotel, and travel segment is expected to generate RMB 57,050 million in revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [26][68]. - The on-demand delivery segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 18.7% in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability due to reduced subsidies and enhanced operational efficiency [11][30]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a 15x P/E multiple to the food delivery business, resulting in a valuation of USD 65 billion, and a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for community e-commerce, leading to a valuation of USD 52 billion [17][19][30]. - The overall SOTP valuation for Meituan is estimated at HK$1,230 billion, supporting the target price of HK$193 [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) with a target price of 116.3 HKD [5] Core Views - Meituan's Q2 2024 revenue and profits exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates Revenue reached 82.3 billion RMB, 2% above expectations, while EBIT was 11.3 billion RMB, 29% above expectations Adjusted net profit was approximately 13.6 billion RMB, 28% above expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, 1% above expectations, and new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, 5% above expectations [5] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its strong merchant base and decades of accumulated user reviews, which solidify its moat [5] Business Segment Analysis Core Local Commerce - Q2 2024 revenue was 60.7 billion RMB, with delivery service revenue at 23 billion RMB, commission revenue at 22.1 billion RMB, and online marketing revenue at 12.3 billion RMB Operating profit was 15.2 billion RMB, 24% above Bloomberg consensus [5] - Food delivery maintained stable growth with improved operational efficiency, user retention, and order frequency The company focused on improving shelf model operations and enhancing "cost-effective" products [5] - Meituan Instant Delivery achieved strong growth with increasing annual transacting users and faster order frequency The company expanded its Meituan Lightning Warehouses and deepened supply chain integration [5] - In-store dining and hotel & travel saw over 60% YoY order growth in Q2 2024 The company expanded its "Shen Membership" program and invested in lower-tier markets [5] New Business - Q2 2024 new business revenue was 21.6 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 1.3 billion RMB, 38% better than Bloomberg consensus [5] - Meituan Youxuan improved operational efficiency through better product quality and supplier collaboration, leading to increased unit prices and price-to-cost ratios [5] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket made significant progress in product, operations, and fulfillment, achieving higher growth and efficiency than industry peers [5] - Other new businesses, including B2B food delivery, RMS, shared bikes, and power banks, all achieved healthy growth and efficiency improvements [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meituan's 2024-2026 revenue to be 3347/3843/4333 billion RMB (previous estimates: 3292/3809/4293 billion RMB) [5] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 408/606/724 billion RMB (previous estimates: 364/530/650 billion RMB) [5]

股价（2024 年 08 月 30 日） 118.2 港元 绝对表现% 9.95 11.09 8.54 -11.92 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 杨妍 yangyan3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523030001 ⚫ 整体：利润大超预期。收入端，24Q2 营收 823 亿元（yoy+21%）彭博一致预期为 804 亿元。利润端，24Q2 调整后营业利润 139 亿元（彭博一致预期为 102 亿 元），营业利润率为 16.9%（23Q2 为 8.7%，24Q1 为 9.5%），同环比均明显改 善，主要是核心本地商业利润释放和新业务亏损显著收窄。调整后净利润 136 亿元 （彭博一致预期为 103 亿元），净利润率为 16.5%（23Q2 为 11.3%，24Q1 为 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 美团-W（03690） 公司点评 2Q24 业绩点评：利润超预期，经营效率持续提升 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

到店酒旅将持续受益于线上渗透率提升：2 季度到店酒旅订单量同比增超 60%， 年交易用户（同比增 35%）及年活跃商户数创新高，受益于上线团购产品、打通 神会员体系等。拆分 GTV，休闲娱乐/丽人&医美 GTV 同比增 60%+/50%+，低线 城市 GTV 增速强劲，到店 GTV 增速仍快于酒旅。我们认为，线上渗透率提升是 到店酒旅业务的中长期增长动力，竞争格局趋于稳定，投入更加注重效率，美团 在商户侧的沉淀也利好满足用户侧需求，同时神会员体系利好交叉销售率提升。 王婷 (0755) 8168 2753 wangting9@essence.com.cn 2 图表 8:2Q24 经营活动现金流 250 亿元 规范性披露 投资评级： xx 买入 xx 图表 3: 核心本地商业收入结构 13 14 15 15 14 16 20 20 17 20.4 23.0 21.9 21.1 23.0 10 12 13 13 12 12 16 15 16 18.4 21.0 19.4 20.0 22.1 6 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 10.2 11.4 10.9 10.3 12.3 28.7 33.7 37.2 37.0 ...

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 资产负债表（百万元） | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表（百万元） | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 现金及现金等价物 | 33340 | 44243 | 62733 | 76892 | 营业收入 | 276745 | 337517 | 393081 | 451113 | | 应收款项 | 11235 | 30515 | 35539 | 40786 | 营业成本 | 179554 | 213166 | 237102 | 267367 | | 存货净额 | 1305 | 2850 | 3162 | 3560 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) with a target price of 158.8 HKD [18][30][40]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q2 revenue reached 82.25 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.0%. The adjusted net profit was 13.61 billion RMB, up 77.6% year-on-year. Core local commerce revenue was 60.68 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 15.23 billion RMB, significantly exceeding expectations [30][29][16]. - The report highlights the synergy between home delivery and in-store services, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth in local life services [30][29]. - New initiatives are showing improved efficiency and reduced losses, with a Q2 operating profit margin of -6.1%, a year-on-year increase of 24.9 percentage points [30][29]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 21% to 82.25 billion RMB, with core local commerce and new initiatives revenues growing by 19% and 29% respectively [3][30]. - Instant delivery orders rose by 14% year-on-year to 6.2 billion orders, with operating profit margin improving to 13.7% [4][30]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2024E-FY2026E is set at 41.3 billion, 51.5 billion, and 61.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight upward adjustment from previous estimates [16][30]. Business Segments - Core local commerce showed robust growth with delivery services, commissions, and online marketing services increasing by 13%, 20%, and 20% respectively [15][30]. - New business initiatives are expected to grow revenue by 25%, driven by improved pricing strategies and operational efficiencies [30][29]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, indicating a total value of 1,000.3 billion RMB for Meituan, with various segments contributing differently to the overall valuation [9][30]. - The target price of 158.8 HKD reflects a strong upside potential based on the current market conditions and company performance [18][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [21][17] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 82.3 billion, a 21% YoY increase, and Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 13.6 billion, up 77.6% YoY [12] - Local core commerce revenue grew 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion, with operating profit increasing 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion, and operating margin improving by 3.3 percentage points to 25.1% [12] - New business revenue increased 28.7% YoY to RMB 21.6 billion, with operating losses narrowing by 74.7% to RMB 1.3 billion, and the loss ratio improving by 24.9 percentage points YoY [13] Business Segments Food Delivery and Instant Retail - Food delivery and instant retail saw a 14.2% YoY increase in daily orders, reaching 67.77 million, with total transaction volume hitting 6.167 billion in Q2 2024 [12] - The "Pinhao Fan" service achieved a record daily order peak of 8 million, driven by affordable offerings that lowered the threshold for user orders and improved retention [12] - Flash delivery expanded its coverage, with the self-operated alcohol retail brand "Waima Songjiu" continuing to grow, and online medical insurance payments for non-prescription drugs driving growth in the healthcare category [12] In-Store and Hotel & Travel - In-store and hotel & travel business saw order volume grow over 60% YoY, with record-high annual transacting users and active merchants [12] - Leisure and entertainment categories experienced over 60% YoY growth in GTV and order volume, while beauty and medical aesthetics categories saw GTV growth exceeding 50% [12] - The "Shen Membership" system was upgraded and extended to the in-store and hotel & travel categories, enhancing the company's brand as a value-for-money platform [12] New Businesses - Meituan Select improved product quality and pricing through enhanced supply chain management, driving overall operational efficiency [13] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket led industry growth with continuous efficiency improvements, while B2B food supply chain services, restaurant management systems, and shared mobility services also achieved healthy growth [13] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 3.357 trillion, RMB 3.874 trillion, and RMB 4.410 trillion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be RMB 40.5 billion, RMB 50.0 billion, and RMB 65.8 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] - The P/E ratio is forecasted at 14.47x, 11.72x, and 8.90x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13] Valuation Metrics - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to improve significantly, from 9.11% in 2023 to 20.11% in 2026 [23] - The P/B (Price-to-Book) ratio is projected to decline from 4.21 in 2023 to 2.28 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - No specific financial data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific business line data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific market data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific company strategy or industry competition details mentioned in the provided content [1] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - No specific management commentary on the operating environment or future outlook mentioned in the provided content [1] Other Important Information - The conference call is for Meituan's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings, hosted by Ms Scarlett Xu, VP and Head of Capital Markets [1] Q&A Session Summary - No Q&A session details provided in the content [1]

Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 21.0% year-on-year to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024, up from RMB 68 billion in Q2 2023[30] - Operating profit grew by 36.8% year-on-year to RMB 15.2 billion, with an operating margin increase of 3.3 percentage points to 25.1%[26] - The company reported a profit of RMB 11.4 billion in Q2 2024, up from RMB 5.0 billion in Q1 2024[45] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 reached RMB 15 billion, reflecting significant growth compared to RMB 7.7 billion in Q2 2023[58] - The total operating profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 11,256,889 thousand, which is 13.7% of revenue, compared to RMB 4,712,999 thousand and 6.9% in Q2 2023[155] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 16,720,459 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 8,046,103 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of 107.5%[112] - The diluted earnings per share increased to RMB 2.58 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 1.21 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a growth of 113.2%[112] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from delivery services was RMB 37.3 billion, while commission revenue was RMB 34.2 billion, showing a slight increase from the previous period[2] - The core local business revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 15,233,585 thousand, accounting for 25.1% of total revenue, up from 21.8% in Q2 2023[155] - The core local business segment's revenue grew from RMB 51,200 million in Q2 2023 to RMB 60,700 million in Q2 2024, marking an 18.5% increase[185] - Revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 82.25 billion, up from RMB 73.28 billion in Q1 2024, marking a growth of approximately 12.7%[191] Expenses and Costs - General and administrative expenses rose by 17.3% from RMB 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.7 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 3.3% of revenue[6] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 14.8 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to seasonal factors[41] - Distribution-related costs increased to RMB 48,034,761 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 40,305,534 thousand in the same period of 2023, reflecting a rise of 19.5%[110] - Employee compensation expenses rose to RMB 22,361,745 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 20,724,480 thousand in the same period of 2023, an increase of 7.9%[110] - The cost of sales increased by 1.6% to RMB 48.36 billion in Q2 2024, with the cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 6.1 percentage points to 58.8%[194] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 5.2 billion, primarily due to net cash from financial investments, offset by purchases of property, plant, and equipment[8] - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, totaled RMB 54.7 billion and RMB 78.5 billion, respectively, as of June 30, 2024[54] - The company reported a net cash outflow from financing activities of RMB (32,413,691) thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB (1,697,222) thousand for the same period in 2023[106] - The company recorded a net cash flow of RMB 20.5 billion from financing activities in Q2 2024, primarily due to repayment of loan principal and interest, as well as repurchase of Class B shares[147] Business Segments and Growth - The number of instant delivery transactions reached 6,167.1 thousand, representing a 14.2% increase year-on-year[21] - New business segments, including B2B catering supply chain services and shared bicycles, achieved healthy growth and efficiency improvements, contributing to the overall ecosystem[28] - Revenue from the new business segment increased by 28.7% from RMB 16.8 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, primarily driven by growth in the merchandise retail business[60] - The new business segment's operating loss narrowed from RMB 5.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating loss margin improving by 24.9 percentage points to 6.1%[35] Strategic Initiatives - The company expanded its "Shen Membership" system to more categories in the hospitality sector, enhancing partnerships with merchants and offering diverse high-value products and services[27] - The company launched the "Must-Eat List" for 2024, covering nearly 2,800 restaurants across over 100 cities, aimed at increasing exposure and operational efficiency for listed merchants[27] - The company has expanded its "Meituan Flash Purchase" service, achieving strong growth in annual transaction users and increasing order frequency[153] - The company has deepened cooperation with leading brands and expanded its "Meituan Lightning Warehouse" to provide operational support for merchants, enhancing transaction conversion rates[153] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q2 2024 were RMB 5.3 billion, maintaining stability year-on-year, with the percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 6.5%[143] - Research and development expenses rose by 6.8% to RMB 5.34 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 6.5% of revenue[195] Market Performance - The company reported a significant increase in transaction amounts in lower-tier markets, driven by enhanced convenience and richer choices for local consumers[27] - The peak daily order volume for the "Pin Hao Fan" service exceeded 8 million orders, indicating strong performance in the second quarter[180]