Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Meituan [22] Core Views - Meituan's core business outlook focuses on promoting conversion through cost-effectiveness and stabilizing/improving monetization rates as the key to profit growth [3] - The integration of Meituan's in-store and home delivery businesses is expected to drive more cost-effective product innovations and enhance bargaining power with merchants [5] - Meituan's organizational restructuring and business integration are expected to gradually show results, with a neutral assumption of a 0.3-0.4pct YoY increase in monetization rate and operating profit margin in 2024 [9] Business Trends - Meituan's food delivery business is expected to see a 13.9% YoY increase in order volume and a 11.3% YoY increase in GTV in 2024 [10] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to achieve a 32.6% YoY increase in GTV in 2024, with a monetization rate of 6.0% [10] - Meituan's new businesses, including Meituan Youxuan, are expected to reduce losses significantly, with a target of reducing operating losses by 8-10 billion yuan in 2024 [71] Competitive Landscape - In 2023, Douyin accelerated its local life services, achieving a 256% YoY growth in GTV, with over 4.5 million partnered stores [30] - Meituan responded to Douyin's competition by lowering commission rates for some in-store merchants and launching live streaming and special offers, stabilizing its in-store business sales at around 200 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [30] - In 2024, Douyin adjusted its organizational structure to focus more on commercialized monetization, while Meituan integrated its in-store and home delivery businesses to improve internal efficiency [35][12] Strategic Adjustments - Meituan's organizational restructuring in 2024 aims to integrate in-store and home delivery businesses, enhancing internal collaboration and operational efficiency [87] - The company is focusing on younger leadership and flattening its organizational structure to reduce resistance to business integration and improve synergy [90] - Meituan's membership system integration is seen as a key driver for future growth, aiming to enhance user retention and cross-category consumption [99] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce revenue grew by 27% YoY in Q1 2024, with instant delivery orders increasing by 28% to 5.46 billion [70] - The company's advertising revenue growth accelerated in Q1 2024, surpassing commission income, indicating a relative easing of competition in the in-store business [70] - Meituan's new business segment reduced losses significantly in Q1 2024, with an operating loss of 2.8 billion yuan, down from previous quarters [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 150.70 [23][30]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that Meituan will demonstrate resilience in profitability despite external pressures, with projected revenue for Q2 2024 reaching RMB 79.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [30]. - The company is expected to achieve a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 8.92 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% [30]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are projected at RMB 325.2 billion, RMB 383.7 billion, and RMB 450.1 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 18.0%, and 17.3% [30]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 219.96 billion, with projections of RMB 276.75 billion for 2023 and RMB 325.18 billion for 2024 [7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 3.95 billion in 2022 to RMB 22.63 billion in 2023, reaching RMB 42.17 billion in 2024 [7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 28.09 billion, with an EPS of RMB 4.51 [7]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 150.70 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with the home delivery business valued at HKD 81.2 based on a 20x PE for 2024, and the in-store business valued at HKD 55.3 [26][27]. - New business segments are valued at HKD 14.3, reflecting a shift towards reducing losses and focusing on high-quality growth strategies [27]. Market Position - The report highlights that Meituan's competitive position is expected to strengthen through synergies between its home delivery and in-store services, particularly with the introduction of the "Shen Membership" program [31][32]. - The in-store segment is projected to see a GTV growth of 35% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with revenue growth of 22% [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a target price of 140.4 HKD [4][7][17]. Core Insights - Meituan is expected to benefit from the recovery in offline consumption demand, with synergies from the integration of its delivery and in-store services [4][7]. - The company is confident in its business outlook, as evidenced by its substantial share buyback plans totaling 30 billion USD [4][7]. - The report anticipates that new business initiatives will continue to reduce losses and could become new growth drivers for Meituan in the future [4][7]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected revenues for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are 327.7 billion, 384.1 billion, and 437.1 billion RMB respectively [4][7]. - Adjusted net profits for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are expected to be 32.1 billion, 44.2 billion, and 56.8 billion RMB respectively [4][7]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in operating profit margins for the in-store business, projecting a rise from 31% in FY24Q2 to 34% by FY2024Q4 [4][7]. Business Integration and Growth Potential - The integration of delivery and in-store services is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth [4][7]. - As of July 4, the number of merchants participating in Meituan's "Shen Membership" program reached 5 million, indicating strong engagement [4][7]. - The report notes that competition in the delivery sector is easing, which may lead to improved profit margins for Meituan [4][7]. Financial Performance and Share Buyback - Meituan's significant share buyback plan reflects its confidence in the local business development and financial stability [4][7]. - The report indicates that the company has sufficient financial resources to support the buyback while maintaining a robust financial position [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating [53][176] Core Views - The company is a leader in the local life services industry, with its main business focusing on local life services [28][51] - The company's overall revenue scale continues to grow, with 2023 full-year revenue reaching RMB 276.7 billion, a 26% YoY increase [10] - The company's gross profit margin has been rising since 2022, reaching 35% in 2023 [10] - The company's core local commerce business accounted for 74.76% of total revenue in 2023, up 1.7 percentage points from 2022 [34] - The company has made strategic adjustments to its organizational structure to address increasing competition, including promoting Wang Puzhong to lead the core local commerce business and having founder Wang Xing directly oversee international and exploratory tech businesses [52][108] Financial Performance - The company's instant delivery transaction volume has shown continuous growth in recent years, driven by the development of its membership system and the promotion of various online consumption scenarios [5][9] - The company's sales expense ratio has fluctuated within a range since its IPO in 2018, while the management expense ratio has steadily declined, and the financial expense ratio remains low [10][14] - The company's core local commerce business has maintained steady growth in operating profit, while new businesses have continued to incur losses, though the loss amount has narrowed quarter by quarter [39] Management and Governance - The company maintains stable management decision-making power through a dual-class share structure, with Class A shares having ten times the voting rights of Class B shares [15] - Wang Xing, the company's founder and chairman, holds approximately 44.33% of the voting rights, while Mu Rongjun, another co-founder, holds about 7.25% of the voting rights [15] - The company's management team is stable, with co-founders holding key positions and overseeing strategic planning and business operations [15][16] Industry and Competition - The company leads in the local life services industry, with its active user scale ranking first in the local life segment according to Questmobile data [28] - The entry of content platforms like Douyin into the local life services market has intensified competition, with Douyin showing a high overlap in user base with the company [52][100] - The local life services market is expected to reach RMB 35.3 trillion by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.6% from 2020 to 2025 [91] Strategic Initiatives - The company has made several organizational adjustments in 2024 to strengthen its core local commerce business and prioritize international and tech exploration businesses [102][108] - The company is advancing its AI and tech strategy through both investments and in-house R&D, including acquiring Lightyear Beyond and investing in Zhipu AI [114][166] - The company has launched AI applications like "Wow" and "Ask Xiaodai" to explore AI-driven social and shopping assistant functionalities [144][145] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 333.3 billion, RMB 382.9 billion, and RMB 438.2 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 14% [53][175] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 27.5 billion, RMB 40.4 billion, and RMB 54.7 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with YoY growth rates of 99%, 47%, and 35% [53][175] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 36.5 billion, RMB 49.0 billion, and RMB 62.9 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with YoY growth rates of 57%, 34%, and 28% [53][175]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of HKD 149.50 [2][5] Core Investment Thesis - Meituan's "Pin Haofan" (拼好饭) introduces a new business model by leveraging group orders to enhance efficiency for users, merchants, and delivery riders [2][9] - The model focuses on "quantity for price" on the supply side and centralized delivery, significantly reducing per-order delivery costs [10][12] - The report forecasts Meituan's revenue for 2024-2026 at RMB 324.8/383.7/450.1 billion, with YoY growth of 17.4%/18.1%/17.3% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected at RMB 37.7/53.4/70.0 billion, with YoY growth of 62.1%/41.6%/31.1% [2] Market Trends and Growth Drivers - Post-pandemic recovery has driven strong growth in the food delivery market, with a 45% YoY increase in 2023 [3] - Food delivery's share in the overall dining market rose from 3.9% in 2015 to 28.3% in 2023, highlighting its growing importance [3] - The trend towards cost-effective dining is evident, with the average per capita dining expenditure dropping from RMB 43.2 in 2022 to RMB 42.6 in 2023 [3] - Lower-tier cities show significant growth potential, with penetration rates below 15% compared to 21.5% in higher-tier cities [3] Pin Haofan's Business Model - Pin Haofan's innovation lies in its ability to negotiate lower prices with merchants and centralize delivery, reducing per-order delivery costs by 46% [12] - The model encourages group orders, allowing riders to deliver 2-3 times more orders in the same time frame, cutting delivery costs from RMB 7 to RMB 3.7 per order [12] - By 2025, Pin Haofan is expected to account for 10%-11% of Meituan's total delivery orders, contributing RMB 4.4-8.5 billion to profit improvement [17] User and Merchant Benefits - Users benefit from lower prices, with Pin Haofan offering discounts of 15%-40% compared to regular orders [30][87] - Merchants gain increased exposure and reduced preparation costs, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized businesses [28][62] - Delivery riders achieve higher efficiency through centralized delivery, with per-trip income increasing by 21% [93] Financial Projections and Valuation - Meituan's core local commerce revenue is expected to grow to RMB 2,438/2,927/3,507 billion in 2024-2026, driven by home delivery and in-store services [104] - The report values Meituan's home delivery business at HKD 81.0 based on a 20x 2024E PE, and the in-store business at HKD 54.4 based on a 20x 2024E PE [106][107] - The SOTP valuation for Meituan is HKD 149.5 per share, reflecting the combined value of its home delivery, in-store, and new businesses [107] Operational Efficiency and Profitability - Pin Haofan significantly improves the unit economics (UE) of low-priced orders, reducing losses by 61.2% compared to regular orders [69][70] - The model is expected to achieve breakeven when the average group order size reaches 4-5 orders per trip [102] - Meituan's overall UE improvement is driven by both the substitution of low-priced orders and the addition of new orders, with the former contributing more significantly [99]

核心观点 ⚫ 考虑到宏观经济不确定性、广告货币化率提升、成本端优化及新业务减亏加速，我 盈利预测与投资建议 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------|----------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | 股价（ 2024 年 日） | 28 | 买入 | （维持） 111.1 港元 | | 目标价格 | | | 154.00 港元 | | 52 周最高价 / 最低价 | | 150/61.1 | 港元 | | 总股本 / 流通 H 股（万股） | | | 622,517/562,490 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | | | 691,616 | | 国家 / 地区 | | | 中国 | | 行业 | | | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | | 2024 年 06 | 月 29 日 | | | | | | | | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | 绝对表现 % | -6.64 | 14.77 | -12.59 | | 相对表现 % | -0.78 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 154.00 HKD [5][6][22]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached 733 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 25.0%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 690 billion CNY, primarily driven by better-than-expected core local business revenue [1][6]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2024 was 69 billion CNY, exceeding the expected 52 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 9.5%, improving from 7.5% in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q4 2023 [1][6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 27.4% year-over-year to 546 billion CNY, with adjusted operating profit of 97 billion CNY, also above the expected 84 billion CNY [1][6]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 733 billion CNY, with a 25.0% year-over-year growth, and adjusted net profit was 75 billion CNY, a net profit margin of 10.2% [1][6][21]. Core Local Business - Revenue from the core local business was 546 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 27.4% [1][6]. - The total orders for the delivery and flash purchase business reached 5.465 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.1% [1][6]. Delivery Business - The delivery business saw a significant increase in order volume, with a year-over-year growth of 24% [1][6]. - The average order value (AOV) saw a structural decline, but improved advertising monetization and optimized subsidies mitigated the negative impact on revenue [1][6]. Flash Purchase Business - Flash purchase orders grew nearly 60% year-over-year, with a significant increase in user purchase frequency and transaction numbers [1][6]. - The business is expected to continue high-speed growth in Q2 2024, driven by expanding supply categories and consumer demand for convenience [1][6]. New Business - New business revenue reached 187 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 18.5%, and operating losses narrowed to 28 billion CNY [1][6]. - The community group buying segment is focusing on operational improvements and high-quality growth, leading to a significant reduction in losses [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan, with a target price range of HKD 125-144 [136] Core Views - Meituan's local life business reorganization is expected to bring continuous optimization in operational efficiency, particularly through the integration of its home delivery, in-store, and platform businesses [2] - TikTok's local life business is facing challenges in achieving its annual GTV target, with a focus on post-cancellation GTV and profitability [9][10] - Meituan's strategy focuses on consolidating long-term competitive advantages rather than merely pursuing market share, with a shift from subsidy-driven growth to ROI-driven growth [42] Meituan's Local Life Business Progress - Meituan's local life business reorganization in early 2024 aims to integrate home delivery, in-store, and platform operations under a unified leadership, expected to enhance operational efficiency [2] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business strategy emphasizes expanding the merchant base, improving price competitiveness, and exploring low-tier cities through direct operations [34][36] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business has maintained stable market share through subsidies, with a focus on enriching product offerings and leveraging live streaming to drive impulse purchases [37][49] - Meituan's in-store and hotel business operating profit margin (OPM) declined from 48% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023 due to increased competition and subsidies, but showed a slight recovery to 31% in Q1 2024 [42][55] TikTok's Local Life Business Progress - TikTok's local life business GTV grew from RMB 77 billion in 2022 to nearly RMB 300 billion in 2023, but faces challenges in achieving its 2024 target of RMB 600 billion [9][42] - TikTok's local life business is focusing on post-cancellation GTV and profitability, with adjustments to sales compensation structures and a shift towards advertising as a key revenue driver [10] - TikTok's local life business has undergone organizational restructuring, with a focus on regional divisions to improve sales efficiency and merchant acquisition [13] - TikTok's local life business GTV growth is driven by increasing merchant coverage and category expansion, with GTV growth rates of 256% YoY in 2023, led by the hotel and travel sector [15] Competitive Landscape - Meituan and TikTok are adopting differentiated competitive strategies, with Meituan focusing on operational efficiency and TikTok leveraging its product strengths to explore new categories [42][129] - Meituan's core advantage lies in its evaluation system, which supports long-term merchant operations, while TikTok excels in short-term explosive growth through its product and marketing capabilities [81][95] - TikTok's local life business is more suitable for large KA merchants, while Meituan's strength lies in serving small and medium-sized merchants [97][101] Financial Projections - Meituan's in-store and hotel business is expected to achieve a 17% CAGR in operating profit from 2023 to 2025 under a neutral scenario [133] - Meituan's adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 36.6 billion, RMB 49.1 billion, and RMB 58.3 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19x, 14x, and 12x [136][151]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the stock, indicating that the company's stock performance is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 10% [158]. Core Insights - The report outlines the current development stage of Douyin's local life services and explores the differentiated competitive strategies between Douyin and Meituan this year [3]. - Douyin's local life service business has reached 4.5 million cooperative stores, while Meituan's active merchant count was approximately 9.3 million in 2022, growing over 60% to an estimated 14.88 million in 2023 [5][106]. - Overall, Douyin's GTV growth has been relatively weak this year, attributed not only to organizational adjustments but also to strategic decisions based on its development stage [12][166]. Summary by Sections 1. Meituan's In-store Travel Business Progress - Meituan's strategy focuses on consolidating long-term competitive advantages rather than merely pursuing market share [30]. - The company has adopted a subsidy strategy to stabilize its market share, with GTV growth of approximately 60% in Q1 2024 [34][39]. - Meituan's operating profit margin (OPM) has decreased from 48% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023 due to increased subsidies and operational costs [21][39]. 2. Douyin's Local Life Business Progress - Douyin's merchant coverage is estimated to be about 30% of Meituan's, with stable growth in restaurant merchants and ongoing development of new categories [26][144]. - The GTV growth in Douyin's local life services is driven by an increase in merchant coverage and category expansion, with a reported GMV growth of 256% in 2023 [105][86]. - Douyin's live streaming has become a new growth point for the travel industry, with significant increases in order volumes [112][129]. 3. Competitive Dynamics - The competition between Douyin and Meituan is characterized by a partial misalignment, with Douyin focusing on large chain merchants while Meituan caters to small and medium-sized businesses [51][56]. - Douyin's operational model is more suited for larger merchants due to higher costs associated with advertising and influencer marketing, while Meituan's model supports long-term operations for smaller merchants [60][77]. - Douyin is exploring differentiated new business opportunities rather than relying on price wars, with a focus on product innovation and category expansion [163][166].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 分析师声明 一般声明 特别声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------| | 投资评级声明 \n类别 说明 | | 评级 体系 | | | | | 买入 | 预期股价相对收益 20% 以上 | | | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 增持 | 预期股价相对收益 10%-20% | | 股票投资评级 | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 持有 | 预期股价相对收益 -10%-10% | | | | 卖出 | 预期股价相对收益 -10% 以下 | | | | 强于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 行业投资评级 | 自报告日后的 6 个月内，相对同期恒 | 中性 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%-5% | | | 生指数的涨跌幅 | 弱于大市 | 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 以下 | | --- | --- | ...