Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 226.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.0% from the current closing price of HKD 167.40 [1][4]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance was strong, with revenue reaching RMB 93.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit grew by 124% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][3]. - The core business and new initiatives showed growth, with core business revenue increasing by 20% and new business revenue by 29% [1][2]. - The report projects revenue growth rates of 22% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, with core business revenue expected to grow by 21% and 17% respectively [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 936 billion, with a net profit margin of 14% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 21% [1][6]. - The report estimates that Meituan's revenue for 2024 will be RMB 337.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8% [5][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 44.7 billion, reflecting an 85.9% increase year-on-year [5][12]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a year-on-year growth in revenue, driven by improved advertising monetization and reduced user subsidies [2][3]. - Flash purchase orders increased by nearly 35% year-on-year, with significant growth in user numbers and transaction frequency [2][3]. - The hotel and travel segment experienced a 50%+ increase in order volume, with GTV and revenue growth around 25% [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The report maintains previous valuation expectations, forecasting a net profit growth of approximately 25% for 2025, corresponding to a PEG ratio of 0.9 [3][12]. - Meituan's long-term competitive advantages include accumulated industry experience, strong traffic, and brand reputation [3][12].

上 市 公 司 社会服务 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 02 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 167.40 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7009.05 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 217.00/61.10 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 10,186.72 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,502.05 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0829 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% HSCEI.HI 3690.HK 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsre ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 浦银国际 公司研究 HKD 109 HKD 300 HKD 168.7 HKD 200 HKD… SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 注：截至 2024 年 11 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 美团 股价表现 （3690.HK） 美团（3690.HK）：业绩超预期，新业务 盈利可期 业绩超预期：公司 3Q24 收入为人民币 936 亿元，同比增长 22.4%，高 于市场预期 1.7%；调整后净利润 128 亿元，同比增长 124%，高于市 场预期 10.1%，调整后净利润率为 13.7%（2Q24 为 16.5%，3Q23 为 7.5%）。由于零售业务效率提升，毛利率同比改善 4.0pp 至 39.3%，销 售费用率同比下降 2.9pp 至 19.2%。公司年初至今已回购约 4.2%总股份。 单均配送收入同比提升，外卖业务海外试水营运：公司 3Q24 核心本 地商业收入同比增长 20.2%至 694 亿元，其中配送/佣金/广告收入分别 同比增长 21%/24%/18%；经营利润 146 亿元，同比增长 45%，经营利 润率同比提升 3 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ [Table_Contacts] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 美 团 -W （03690.HK） 本地商业效率提升，出海有望成为增长动能 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q3 业绩：公司发布 24Q3 业绩公告，Q3 实现营收 935.77 亿元（人 民币，下同），同增 22.38%；GAAP 归母净利润 128.65 亿元；NON- GAAP 净利润为 128.29 亿元，NON-GAAP 归母净利率为 13.71%。分 业务看，24Q3 核心本地商业实现收入 693.73 亿元（YOY+20.25%）， OP 145.82 亿元（YOY+44.44%）。新业务收入 242.04 亿元（YOY+ 28.91%），新业务 OP-10.26 亿元。期间费用来看，公司 Q3 销售费用 为 179.53 亿元，研发费用为 52.93 亿元，管理费用为 27.98 亿元。 ⚫ 本地核心商业强韧劲，新业务持续减亏。24Q3，即时配送交易单数为 70.78 亿单，YoY+14.54%。外卖业务呈现新的增长机 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of Meituan in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 92 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, also above the consensus estimate of 11.7 billion yuan [1] - The core local business profit and new business losses were better than expected, with core local business revenue of 69.4 billion yuan (yoy +20.2%) and operating profit of 14.6 billion yuan (yoy +44.4%) [2] - The delivery profit showed steady growth, with instant delivery transaction volume (including food delivery and flash purchase orders) reaching 7.078 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3] - The new business losses narrowed more than expected, with the overall new business achieving profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 220.08 billion yuan, with projections of 276.85 billion yuan for 2023, 337.62 billion yuan for 2024, 390.80 billion yuan for 2025, and 447.46 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 22.86% in 2022 and a projected 25.80% in 2023 [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2022 was a loss of 6.686 billion yuan, with a projected profit of 38.664 billion yuan for 2024, 49.913 billion yuan for 2025, and 64.193 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [1] Business Segments - The core local business revenue for Q3 2024 was 69.4 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 21.0%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Flash purchase volume grew by 35% year-on-year, with user numbers and transaction frequency also showing double-digit growth [3] Future Outlook - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 45.248 billion yuan, 57.257 billion yuan, and 71.242 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 13 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 211 for the next six months [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's core local business profit exceeded market expectations by 14% in Q3, with significant improvements in both food delivery and in-store travel services [10][11]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year in Q4, with core local business and new business revenues expected to grow by 18% and 22% respectively [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages in instant delivery and the ongoing digitalization of the travel sector, alongside controlled losses in overseas business ventures [13]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of HKD 276,745 million, a 26% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit reaching HKD 23,253 million, reflecting an 8.4% net profit margin [9][10]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 336,889 million, HKD 392,556 million, and HKD 447,463 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22%, 17%, and 14% [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to HKD 43,859 million in 2024, with a net profit margin of 13% [9][10]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Wang Xing with 8.90%, BlackRock with 5.97%, and Vanguard Group with 5.20%, while other shareholders account for 74.98% [7]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of -4.79% over the past month, but a significant increase of 76.51% over the past year [8]. - The stock price as of November 29, 2024, was HKD 168.7, with a market capitalization of HKD 1,008,936 million [5][6].

2 Dec 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Meituan (3690 HK) 3Q results beat; driving earnings growth in a more holistic perspective Meituan reported (29 Nov) its 3Q24 results: revenue was RMB93.6bn, up 22% YoY, 2% higher than both our estimate and Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adj. NP reached RMB12.8bn, 4%/10% better than our estimate/consensus, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, aided by subsidy opti ...

美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 核心本地业务稳健增长，关注出海业务发展 营收增长 22%，调整后利润率同比提升 7pct。本季度美团实现营业收入 936 亿元，同比增长 22%。按收入类型划分，本季度即时配送服务/交易佣金/营 销服务收入分别同比增长+21%/+25%/+18%。本季度美团实现调整后净利润 128 亿元，同比增长 124%；调整后净利润率 14%，同比提升 7pct。其中，毛 利率同比提升约 4pct，得益于成本效率提升；研发费率同比下降 1.3pct， 反映经营杠杆作用下人效比提升，销售费率同比下降 3pct 至 19%，主要由于 营销效率提升，管理费率基本与去年同期持平。 即时配送总单量同比增长 15%，外卖闪购单均盈利持续优化。我们测算，本 季度公司餐饮外卖订单量同比提升 12%，受益于高粘性用户下单频次稳 步增长以及拼好饭快速起量。广告收入提升以及单均配送成本下降带动 餐饮外卖 UE 提升。闪购订单量同比增长 36%，经营利润连续三个季度转 正受益于货币化率的提升和规模效应。根据业绩会，公司将提供补贴以 支持商家的进一步发展和业务创新，初步总金额为 10 亿元人民币。 到店酒旅 ...

Investment Rating - The target price for the company is HK$199.20, representing an 18.1% upside from the current price of HK$168.70 [10] - The investment rating is based on a DCF valuation, with the target price revised upward by 26% to HK$199.20, reflecting improved earnings forecasts and an extended valuation horizon to 2025 [25] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 93.6 billion, a 22% YoY increase, surpassing both the analyst's and Bloomberg consensus expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.8 billion, exceeding expectations by 4% and 10%, driven by better-than-expected performance in the Core Local Commerce (CLC) segment and reduced losses in new initiatives [6] - The company is focusing on operational integration within the CLC segment and expanding its food delivery (FD) business in the Middle East, which may slightly offset short-term earnings growth but supports long-term ecosystem development [6] Financial Performance Core Local Commerce (CLC) - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q3 2024 were RMB 69.4 billion and RMB 14.6 billion, respectively, growing 20% and 44% YoY, both exceeding expectations [7] - CLC operating margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0%, driven by increased delivery service revenue per order and optimized user subsidies [18] - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q4 2024 are expected to grow 18% and 44% YoY, reaching RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 11.6 billion, respectively [7] New Initiatives - New initiatives revenue in Q3 2024 grew 29% YoY to RMB 24.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 1.0 billion, better than expected [8] - Meituan Select's operating losses narrowed to RMB 1.7 billion in Q3 2024, significantly better than the RMB 5.0 billion loss in Q3 2023 [8] - Excluding Meituan Select, other new initiatives achieved an operating profit of RMB 70 million in Q3 2024 [8] International Expansion - The company is investing in FD expansion in the Middle East, with expected operating losses of RMB 5.55 billion in Q4 2024 due to this expansion [9] - The financial impact of international FD expansion is expected to fully materialize in 2025, with higher gross transaction value (GTV) margins compared to domestic FD due to higher average order values (AOV) and delivery fees [9] Forecast and Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were revised upward by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, reflecting better-than-expected FD revenue growth [23] - Operating profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were raised by 14.0% and 6.2%, respectively, due to improved unit economics in the FD segment [23] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 were increased by 5% to 9%, with the target price raised to HK$199.20 based on a DCF valuation [6] Valuation Methods - The DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, resulting in a target price of HK$199.20 [25] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation cross-check suggests a per-share valuation of HK$230.0, with FD and ISHT segments valued at 20.0x and 17.0x 2025E PE, respectively [28] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 336.97 billion, with a YoY growth of 21.8%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 45.04 billion, a 93.7% YoY increase [13] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve to 23.0% in 2024E, up from 9.9% in 2023A [13] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 25.5x, declining to 18.1x by 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [1][4][7] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue reached 935.8 billion yuan (YoY +22.4%), exceeding consensus expectations by 1.7%, driven by stronger-than-expected core local commerce revenue [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 128.3 billion yuan (YoY +124.0%), surpassing consensus by 10.1%, with a Non-IFRS profit margin of 13.7% (YoY +6.2pct, QoQ -2.8pct) [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3369/3898/4469 billion yuan and Non-IFRS profits of 417/539/673 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.9/17.7/14.2 [1][7] Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in Q3 2024 was 693.7 billion yuan (YoY +20.2%), 1.5% above consensus, with delivery orders reaching 70.8 billion (YoY +14.5%) [1] - Delivery revenue was 277.8 billion yuan (YoY +20.9%), 14.2% above consensus, driven by changes in accounting, increased merchant adoption of Meituan delivery, and higher long-distance, nighttime, and large-item orders [1] - Operating profit for core local commerce was 145.8 billion yuan (YoY +44.4%), 13.7% above consensus, with an operating margin of 21.0% (YoY +3.5pct, QoQ -4.1pct) [1] Food Delivery - Food delivery revenue was 467.1 billion yuan (YoY +17.0%), 2.9% below consensus, with total orders reaching 61.5 billion (YoY +12.3%, daily average of 66.86 million) [1] - Average revenue per order was 7.59 yuan (YoY +4.2%), driven by higher-than-expected delivery and advertising revenue, partially offset by lower AOV [1] - Operating profit for food delivery was 88.3 billion yuan (1.44 yuan per order, YoY +29.1%), with an OPM of 18.9% (YoY +1.8pct, QoQ -0.8pct), 0.9pct above consensus [1] Instashopping - Instashopping revenue was 66.9 billion yuan (YoY +39.5%), with total orders reaching 9.3 billion (YoY +32%, daily average of 10.76 million), achieving slight profitability [1] In-store, Hotel & Travel - In-store, hotel & travel revenue was 159.8 billion yuan (YoY +23.0%), 2.1% above consensus, with GTV growth of 23%, 1.5% above consensus [1] - Operating profit for this segment was 52.2 billion yuan (YoY +29.0%), with an OPM of 33.2% (YoY +1.5pct, QoQ -2.0pct), 0.8pct below consensus [1] New Business - New business revenue in Q3 2024 was 242.0 billion yuan (YoY +28.9%), 8.3% below consensus, with an operating loss of 10.3 billion yuan (YoY -79.9%, QoQ -21.9%), 42.4% better than consensus [2] - The operating loss margin was 4.2% (YoY +23.0pct, QoQ +1.9pct), with Meituan优选 (preferred selection) contributing significantly to the reduction in losses [2] - Overseas business investments are expected to increase significantly, with full-year new business losses projected at 72-73 billion yuan, aiming for breakeven by 2026-2027 [2] Financial Summary - Gross profit was 367.5 billion yuan (YoY +36.2%), 3.5% above consensus, with a gross margin of 39.3% (YoY +4.0pct), 0.6pct above consensus [6] - Sales expenses were 179.5 billion yuan (YoY +6.2%), 5.5% above consensus, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2% (YoY -2.9pct, QoQ +1.2pct) [6] - R&D expenses were 52.9 billion yuan (YoY flat), 17.3% below consensus, with an R&D expense ratio of 5.7% (YoY -1.3pct, QoQ -0.8pct) [6] - Administrative expenses were 28.0 billion yuan (YoY +10.2%), in line with expectations, with an administrative expense ratio of 3.0% (YoY and QoQ flat) [6] Investment Recommendations - Meituan's strong competitive position in food delivery and instashopping, coupled with its ability to innovate and optimize efficiency, is expected to drive continued revenue growth and profit extraction [7] - The company's strategic focus on differentiated product selection and overseas expansion is likely to support long-term growth, with profitability expected to improve in the coming years [7]