隐证券 社会服务/本地生活服务Ⅱ 公 司 研 究 美团-W（03690.HK） 2024 年 12 月 02 日 短期业绩增速预期波动，整体利润上行趋势不变 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/11/29 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 168.70 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 217.00/61.100 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 10,265.83 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 10,265.83 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 60.85 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 60.85 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 44.69 | 股价走势图 -64% -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 美团-W 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《核心商业盈利能力及新业务减亏进 程均超预期—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.30 《核心商业货币化率提升，新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 168 70 [1] Core Views - Meituan's 3Q2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by improved profitability in core businesses and significant reduction in losses from new businesses [1] - The company's 3Q2024 revenue grew by 22 38% YoY while adjusted net profit surged by 124 00% YoY [1] - Meituan's gross margin increased by 3 99 percentage points and the expense ratio decreased by 4 73 percentage points in 3Q2024 [1] - The company's core local commerce segment saw a 20 25% YoY revenue growth with a 44 44% YoY increase in operating profit [3] - Meituan's new business segment revenue grew by 28 91% YoY although it still reported an operating loss [3] Financial Performance - Meituan's 1-3Q2024 revenue reached RMB 295 85 billion a 22 68% YoY increase with adjusted net profit of RMB 339 24 billion up 154 19% YoY [1] - In 3Q2024 Meituan's revenue was RMB 935 77 billion a 22 38% YoY increase with adjusted net profit of RMB 128 29 billion [1] - The company's gross margin for 1-3Q2024 was 38 67% up 3 12 percentage points YoY while the 3Q2024 gross margin was 39 28% [1] - Meituan's expense ratio for 1-3Q2024 was 28 49% down 3 72 percentage points YoY with the 3Q2024 expense ratio at 28 11% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Meituan's core local commerce segment contributed RMB 69 37 billion in revenue with a 21 02% operating margin in 3Q2024 [3] - Delivery services accounted for 40 05% of core local commerce revenue growing 20 89% YoY while commission income grew 24 27% YoY [3] - Meituan's instant delivery orders increased by 14 5% YoY in 3Q2024 reaching 7 078 billion orders [1] - The company's in-store hotel and travel business saw order volume grow over 50% YoY in 3Q2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report raises Meituan's 2024 2025 and 2026 adjusted net profit forecasts by 18% 7% and 4% respectively to RMB 49 07 billion RMB 54 99 billion and RMB 65 13 billion [1] - Meituan's core competitive barriers remain solid with continued improvement in profitability [1] - The company may increase investment in its overseas Keeta business although core business profitability still has room for improvement [1]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) for Meituan-W (03690 HK) [3] Core Views - Meituan-W reported better-than-expected Q3 2024 results with revenue of RMB 93 6 billion (+22 4% YoY) and Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 12 8 billion (+124% YoY) [4] - Local core commerce revenue grew 20 2% YoY to RMB 69 4 billion with an operating profit margin of 21% (+3 5pct YoY) [4] - New business revenue increased 28 9% YoY to RMB 24 2 billion with a narrowed operating loss of RMB 1 billion (-79 9% YoY) [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 3 376/3 941/4 461 billion in 2024/2025/2026 with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 43 8/57 0/73 3 billion respectively [4] Business Segment Analysis Food Delivery and Instant Retail - Food delivery and instant retail transaction volume reached 7 077 billion in Q3 2024 with daily orders of 76 93 million (+14 5% YoY) [4] - Delivery revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB 27 8 billion driven by reduced subsidies and increased merchant adoption of delivery services [4] - Flash purchase business saw double-digit growth in user numbers and transaction frequency with faster growth in non-food categories [4] In-Store Hotel and Travel - In-store hotel and travel order volume increased over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 with record high annual transacting users and active merchants [4] - The business achieved rapid growth in lower-tier markets with increased user frequency and new user acquisition [4] - Hotel business maintained stable room night growth with the Shen Membership program becoming a new growth driver [4] New Businesses - New businesses excluding Meituan Select achieved overall profitability in Q3 2024 [4] - Meituan Select continued to narrow losses despite increased cold chain investments [4] - Overseas expansion began with the launch of Keeta in Riyadh in October 2024 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15 1% from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 4 461 billion in 2026 [8] - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to improve from 13 0% in 2024 to 16 4% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 16 61% in 2024 to 20 45% in 2026 [8] - P E ratio is expected to decline from 21 64x in 2024 to 12 94x in 2026 reflecting earnings growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Meituan's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 22.4% year-on-year to 93.577 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.73%. The core business and new business revenues were 69.373 billion yuan and 24.204 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20.25% and 28.91%. Operating profit surged by 307.5% to 13.685 billion yuan, also surpassing expectations by 41.04%. Adjusted net profit rose by 124.0% to 12.829 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.07% [1][2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 sales expenses increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 17.953 billion yuan, driven by higher advertising, user incentives, and employee compensation. The sales expense ratio decreased by 2.92 percentage points to 19.19% due to improved marketing efficiency. R&D expenses decreased by 0.52% to 5.293 billion yuan, with a R&D expense ratio of 5.66%, down 1.3 percentage points. Management expenses rose by 10.24% to 2.798 billion yuan, primarily due to increased compensation and taxes related to business growth, with a management expense ratio of 2.99%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. Core Local Business - The core local business revenue grew by 20.2% to 69.373 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg expectations by 1.52%. Operating profit increased by 44.44% to 14.582 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 13.69%, with an operating profit margin of 21.02%, up 3.52 percentage points. The order volume for the delivery business increased by 14.5% to 7.078 billion orders [2][3]. New Business Development - New business revenue grew by 28.91% to 24.204 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 3.90%. Operating loss narrowed by 79.93% to -1.026 billion yuan, better than expectations by 42.41%, with an operating profit margin of -4.24%, up 22.99 percentage points. The Meituan Preferred business saw a reduction in losses due to efficiency improvements and healthy growth [4][10]. Future Projections - Meituan is expected to achieve revenues of 336.898 billion yuan, 389.849 billion yuan, and 446.912 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.74%, 15.72%, and 14.64%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 41.737 billion yuan, 53.882 billion yuan, and 67.344 billion yuan, with growth rates of 79.49%, 29.10%, and 24.98%, respectively [10][12].

Revenue Growth - Revenue increased by 22.4% YoY to RMB 93.577 billion in Q3 2024, compared to RMB 76.467 billion in Q3 2023[4] - Core local commerce segment revenue rose by 20.2% YoY to RMB 69.373 billion, with operating profit up 44.4% YoY to RMB 14.582 billion[10][12] - New business segment revenue grew 28.9% year-over-year to RMB 24.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing by 79.9% to RMB 1 billion and an improved operating loss margin of 4.2%[23] - Meituan's total revenue increased 22.4% year-over-year from RMB 76.5 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 93.6 billion in Q3 2024, driven by growth in both core local commerce and new business segments[27] - Core local commerce revenue reached RMB 69.4 billion, with delivery services contributing RMB 27.8 billion and commission income at RMB 26.1 billion[28] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 20.2% from RMB 57.7 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 69.4 billion in Q3 2024, driven by growth in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services[31] - New business revenue grew by 28.9% from RMB 18.8 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 24.2 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to growth in the company's retail business[32] - Revenue increased by 13.8% from RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 93.6 billion in Q3 2024, with growth across both reporting segments[53] - Core local commerce revenue grew by 14.3% from RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 69.4 billion in Q3 2024, driven by increased transaction volume[56] - New business revenue increased by 12.2% from RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 24.2 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to growth in the retail business[57] Profitability - Operating profit surged by 307.5% YoY to RMB 13.685 billion, with operating profit margin improving from 4.4% to 14.6%[4] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 134.8% YoY to RMB 14.529 billion, and adjusted net profit increased by 124.0% YoY to RMB 12.829 billion[4] - New business segment narrowed its operating loss to RMB 1.026 billion from RMB 5.112 billion in Q3 2023[10] - Operating profit increased significantly from RMB 3.4 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 13.7 billion in Q3 2024, with the operating profit margin rising from 4.4% to 14.6%[42] - Core local commerce operating profit grew from RMB 10.1 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 14.6 billion in Q3 2024, with the operating profit margin increasing by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0%[45] - New business operating loss narrowed from RMB 5.1 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 1.0 billion in Q3 2024, with the operating loss margin improving by 23.0 percentage points to 4.2%[46] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.9 billion, compared to RMB 3.6 billion in Q3 2023[49] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was RMB 14.5 billion, slightly lower than the RMB 15.0 billion in Q2 2024[51] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 13.7 billion, with an operating margin of 14.6%, up from RMB 11.3 billion and 13.7% in Q2 2024[68] - Core local commerce operating profit decreased to RMB 14.6 billion in Q3 2024 from RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating margin dropping from 25.1% to 21.0%[70] - New business operating loss narrowed to RMB 1.0 billion in Q3 2024 from RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating loss margin improving from 6.1% to 4.2%[71] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.9 billion, compared to RMB 11.4 billion in Q2 2024[75] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was RMB 14.5 billion, compared to RMB 6.2 billion in Q3 2023 and RMB 15.0 billion in Q2 2024[80] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.8 billion, compared to RMB 5.7 billion in Q3 2023 and RMB 13.6 billion in Q2 2024[80] Cost and Expense Management - Sales costs increased by 14.8% from RMB 49.5 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 56.8 billion in Q3 2024, but the percentage of revenue decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 60.7% due to improved cost efficiency[34] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 6.2% from RMB 16.9 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 18.0 billion in Q3 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing by 2.9 percentage points to 19.2% due to improved marketing efficiency[36] - R&D expenses remained stable at RMB 5.3 billion in Q3 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 5.7% due to improved operating leverage[37] - Cost of sales rose by 17.5% from RMB 48.4 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 56.8 billion in Q3 2024, accounting for 60.7% of revenue, up 1.9 percentage points[59] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 21.0% from RMB 14.8 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 18.0 billion in Q3 2024, representing 19.2% of revenue[61] - R&D expenses remained stable at RMB 5.3 billion in Q3 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing from 6.5% to 5.7%[62] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 42.5 billion, with short-term financial investments totaling RMB 91.7 billion as of September 30, 2024[15] - Operating cash inflow reached RMB 15.2 billion in Q3 2024[15] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 42.5 billion as of September 30, 2024, with short-term financial investments at RMB 91.7 billion[82] - Net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 15.2 billion, primarily due to pre-tax profit and adjustments for non-cash items and working capital changes[84] - Net cash used in investing activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 11.9 billion, mainly due to purchases of financial investments and property, plant, and equipment[85] - Net cash used in financing activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 15.0 billion, primarily due to the repurchase of Class B shares[86] - Capital-to-debt ratio as of September 30, 2024, was approximately 22%, calculated as total borrowings and notes payable divided by total equity attributable to shareholders[87] - Total assets decreased to RMB 285.93 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 293.03 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - Property, plant, and equipment increased to RMB 30.39 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 25.98 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 42.47 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 33.34 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 125.66 billion as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 141.07 billion as of December 31, 2023[94] - The company repurchased 120,063,700 Class B shares for a total consideration of HKD 14.21 billion during the three months ended September 30, 2024[96] - The company issued USD 1.2 billion of 4.500% senior notes due 2028 and USD 1.3 billion of 4.625% senior notes due 2029 in October 2024[105] - The company's equity attributable to owners increased to RMB 160.32 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 152.01 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - Short-term financial investments decreased to RMB 91.69 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 111.82 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - Trade receivables increased to RMB 3.25 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 2.74 billion as of December 31, 2023[92] - The company's deferred tax liabilities increased to RMB 1.30 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 968.23 million as of December 31, 2023[94] Business Segment Performance - Core local commerce segment revenue rose by 20.2% YoY to RMB 69.373 billion, with operating profit up 44.4% YoY to RMB 14.582 billion[10][12] - New business segment narrowed its operating loss to RMB 1.026 billion from RMB 5.112 billion in Q3 2023[10] - Meituan's instant retail business saw double-digit year-over-year growth in both user numbers and transaction frequency, with non-food categories growing faster due to expanded supply and improved service quality[18] - Meituan's on-demand delivery network served over 1.6 million riders, improving efficiency and safety through initiatives like the "Rider-Friendly Community" and "Rider Home" features[19] - Meituan's in-store, hotel, and travel business achieved over 50% year-over-year growth in order volume, with record highs in annual transacting users and active merchants[20] - Domestic hotel room nights continued stable growth, with high-end hotels leveraging new marketing IPs and low-end hotels benefiting from increased demand for short trips and local travel[22] - Core local commerce revenue reached RMB 69.4 billion, with delivery services contributing RMB 27.8 billion and commission income at RMB 26.1 billion[28] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 20.2% from RMB 57.7 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 69.4 billion in Q3 2024, driven by growth in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services[31] - New business revenue grew by 28.9% from RMB 18.8 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 24.2 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to growth in the company's retail business[32] - Core local commerce revenue grew by 14.3% from RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 69.4 billion in Q3 2024, driven by increased transaction volume[56] - New business revenue increased by 12.2% from RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 24.2 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to growth in the retail business[57] Operational Metrics - Instant delivery transactions increased by 14.5% YoY to 7.078 billion orders in Q3 2024[8] - Meituan's instant retail business saw double-digit year-over-year growth in both user numbers and transaction frequency, with non-food categories growing faster due to expanded supply and improved service quality[18] - Meituan's on-demand delivery network served over 1.6 million riders, improving efficiency and safety through initiatives like the "Rider-Friendly Community" and "Rider Home" features[19] - Meituan's in-store, hotel, and travel business achieved over 50% year-over-year growth in order volume, with record highs in annual transacting users and active merchants[20] - Domestic hotel room nights continued stable growth, with high-end hotels leveraging new marketing IPs and low-end hotels benefiting from increased demand for short trips and local travel[22] - The company's active merchants are defined as those who have completed at least one transaction, purchased online marketing services, processed offline payments, or generated orders through the ERP system within a specific period[114] - The company's transaction amount includes the value of paid products and services on the platform, excluding pure payment transactions such as QR code payments and POS transactions[115] - The company's instant delivery transaction count includes transactions from food delivery and Meituan Flash Purchase businesses[116] - The company's transaction users are defined as user accounts that have paid for products and services on the platform within a specific period, regardless of subsequent refunds[117] - The company's transaction count is based on payment frequency, with specific rules for different business segments such as in-store, hotel booking, and shared mobility services[118] Corporate Governance and Shareholder Information - The company's board of directors includes executive directors Wang Xing and Mu Rongjun, and independent non-executive directors including Ou Gaodun, Leng Xuesong, Shen Xiangyang, and Yang Minde[107] - The company's financial performance and business outlook are based on unaudited management accounts and involve significant risks and uncertainties[108] - The company's A-class shares carry ten votes per share on most resolutions, while B-class shares carry one vote per share[110] - The company repurchased 120,063,700 Class B shares for a total consideration of HKD 14.21 billion during the three months ended September 30, 2024[96] - The company issued USD 1.2 billion of 4.500% senior notes due 2028 and USD 1.3 billion of 4.625% senior notes due 2029 in October 2024[105]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to reach 921 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 20 5% and a QoQ increase of 12% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is projected at 687 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 19% and QoQ growth of 13% [1] - The food delivery business is expected to generate 459 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 15% and QoQ increase of 13%, and an operating profit margin of 17 8% [1] - Flash delivery revenue is forecasted at 67 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 42% and an operating profit margin of 0 3% [1] - The in-store, hotel, and travel business is expected to achieve 154 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 25% and QoQ increase of 11%, and an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - New business revenue is projected at 235 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 25% and QoQ growth of 9%, and an operating profit margin of -8% [1] Core Local Commerce - Food Delivery Business - The food delivery business is expected to see a 14 6% YoY revenue increase to 459 billion yuan, with GTV growing 11% YoY and operating profit margin improving by 2 9 percentage points to 17 8% [1] - Order volume is expected to grow 12% YoY to 6 12 billion orders, driven by new supply models and marketing campaigns [1] - The "Autumn's First Milk Tea" campaign achieved a daily peak of 90 million orders in August 2024 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by adapting to consumer behavior changes and deepening the supply chain [1] Core Local Commerce - Flash Delivery Business - Flash delivery revenue is expected to grow 42% YoY to 67 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% YoY to 960 million orders [1] - The lightning warehouse model is a key driver, with over 30,000 warehouses currently and a projected 100,000 by 2027 [1] - Operating profit margin is expected to decline by 4 8 percentage points due to increased marketing and seasonal delivery costs [1] Core Local Commerce - In-Store, Hotel, and Travel Business - Revenue for this segment is expected to grow 25% YoY to 154 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - The "Shen Membership" integration is driving synergies, with GTV expected to grow 35% YoY [1] - The National Day Golden Week saw a 41 2% YoY increase in in-store consumption and a 69 6% YoY increase in tourist spending [1] - The segment is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2026 [1] New Business - New business revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY to 235 billion yuan, driven by Xiaoxiang Supermarket [1] - The segment's loss is expected to increase slightly to 1 8 billion yuan, mainly due to seasonal cold chain investments [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 3,328 billion yuan, 3,863 billion yuan, and 4,389 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 33 2 billion yuan, 44 1 billion yuan, and 55 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41 5 billion yuan, 57 3 billion yuan, and 68 3 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The target price is set at 230 yuan (250 HKD) based on SOTP valuation [5] Market Performance - Meituan-W has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with a 46 8% increase over the past month, 65% over three months, and 80 8% over twelve months [1] - The current stock price is 194 90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 1,185,913 94 million HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 228, implying a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 183.60 [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's profit growth trend is expected to remain sustainable, leading to an upward revision of 2025 profit forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to report a 21% YoY increase in total revenue for Q3 2024, slightly above Bloomberg/Visible Alpha (VA) consensus of 20% [1] - Net profit is projected to surge 98% YoY to RMB 11.4 billion in Q3 2024, with a net margin of 12.3%, outperforming Bloomberg/VA expectations of 106%/109% growth [1] - Local commerce (CLC) is expected to grow 20% YoY, with delivery order volume up 14%, revenue up 18%, and profit up 36% [1] - In-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) business is forecasted to grow 20% in revenue and 32% in profit, with a margin of 35% [1] - New businesses are expected to grow 25% YoY, with quarterly losses narrowing to RMB 1.86 billion [1] Financial Projections - Local commerce revenue is projected to grow 21% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 30% and 27%, respectively [2] - IHT revenue is expected to accelerate, growing 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 20% and 33%, respectively [2] - New business losses are expected to narrow further in 2025, following a trend of reduced losses in H2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at 78% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, with a 2025 PEG ratio of 1x and a P/E of 25x [2] Industry Position - Meituan maintains a leading position in China's instant retail and delivery industry [2] - The company's food delivery business, despite high online penetration, continues to meet diverse user needs through products like "Pinhao Fan" [2] - Flash delivery faces competition but has significant market potential, with scale effects and category diversification being key to monetization [2] - Local life services market competition is largely under control, with emerging industry investments still in early stages [2] Financial Data Highlights - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 420.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 23.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 3.71 in 2023 to RMB 9.59 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 45.1x in 2023 to 17.5x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 235.6, up from the previous target of HKD 169.0 [2][7] Core Views - Policy tailwinds and consumption recovery are expected to boost Meituan's growth, with stronger profit elasticity anticipated [2] - Meituan's local life services leadership is expected to benefit from improved market confidence and operational efficiency [2] - The report forecasts 3Q24 revenue of RMB 92.1 billion (+21% YoY) and non-IFRS net profit of RMB 11.2 billion (+96% YoY) [2] - For 2024-2026, the report projects revenues of RMB 327.3/382.2/442.1 billion and non-IFRS net profits of RMB 40.2/58.8/75.2 billion [2] Business Segment Analysis Food Delivery Business - Meituan's food delivery business continues to deepen supply-side reforms, with 120 million users for its "Pinhaofan" service as of August 2024 [3] - New models like "satellite stores" and "collection stores" are helping merchants reduce costs and improve efficiency [3] - 3Q24 delivery orders are expected to reach 7.1 billion (+15% YoY), with food delivery orders at 6.1 billion (+12% YoY) [3] - Unit economics (UE) for food delivery is projected to improve to RMB 1.32 (from RMB 1.1 in 3Q23) [3] In-store Business - In-store GTV is expected to grow 30% YoY in 3Q24, driven by increased online penetration and category expansion [4] - Revenue from in-store services is projected to increase 23% YoY in 3Q24 [4] - Operating profit margin (OPM) for in-store business is forecasted at 36% for 3Q24 [4] New Initiatives - New business revenue is expected to grow 26% YoY in 3Q24 [5] - Meituan's self-operated Xiaoxiang supermarket is focusing on high-quality growth, with losses narrowing sequentially [5] - Overall operating loss for new businesses is projected to narrow to RMB 1.8 billion in 3Q24 [5] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted at 18.3%, 16.8%, and 15.7% for 2024-2026 respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow 118.7%, 54.6%, and 31.2% for 2024-2026 [6] - ROE is projected to improve from 17.5% in 2024 to 21.8% in 2026 [6] - PE ratios are estimated at 26.4x, 18.1x, and 14.1x for 2024-2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HKD 235.6 is based on a SOTP model, with valuations for different business segments [9][10] - Food delivery: HKD 125.0 (22x 2025E PE) - In-store: HKD 90.8 (24x 2025E PE) - New initiatives: HKD 19.8 (1.2x 2025E PS)

Revenue Growth - Revenue for Q2 2024 increased by 21.0% to RMB 82,251 million compared to Q2 2023[5] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 rose by 22.9% to RMB 155,527 million[5] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 155.53 billion, a 22.9% increase YoY[8][9] - The company's total revenue increased 21.0% year-over-year from RMB 68.0 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024[17] - Revenue grew by 12.2% from RMB 73.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 82.3 billion in Q2 2024[31] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 155,526,961 thousand, a 22.9% increase compared to RMB 126,582,096 thousand in the same period of 2023[122] - The Core Local Commerce segment generated total revenue of RMB 115,307,565 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 94,085,282 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment reported a total revenue of RMB 40,219,396 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 32,496,814 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - Revenue from delivery services increased to RMB 44,086,329 thousand in 2024 from RMB 37,280,261 thousand in 2023, representing an 18.3% growth[158] - Commission income rose to RMB 43,482,551 thousand in 2024 from RMB 35,155,530 thousand in 2023, a 23.7% increase[158] - Online marketing services and other sales (including interest income) grew to RMB 45,207,335 thousand in 2024 from RMB 36,056,311 thousand in 2023, a 25.4% rise[158] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 155,526,961 thousand, up from RMB 126,582,096 thousand in 2023, a 22.9% increase[158] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 5,606,663 thousand, compared to RMB 5,598,132 thousand for the same period in 2023[199] - Online marketing services and other revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,843,000 thousand, up from RMB 3,362,473 thousand in 2023[200] - Revenue from shared bike and shared e-bike services for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 59,708 thousand, an increase from RMB 40,182 thousand in 2023[200] Profitability - Operating profit for Q2 2024 surged by 138.8% to RMB 11,256 million[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 grew by 95.2% to RMB 14,997 million[5] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 98.4% to RMB 16,466 million[5] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 grew by 77.6% to RMB 13,606 million[5] - Operating profit for core local commerce grew by 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 surged by 98.4% YoY to RMB 16.47 billion[8][9] - The company's operating profit increased from RMB 4.7 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024[16] - The company's adjusted EBITDA rose from RMB 7.7 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 15.0 billion in Q2 2024[16] - Operating profit for core local business rose to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024, with operating profit margin increasing from 21.8% to 25.1%[27] - New business operating loss narrowed to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with operating loss margin improving from 31.0% to 6.1%[27] - Total operating profit increased to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024, with operating profit margin rising from 6.9% to 13.7%[26] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 11.4 billion, compared to RMB 4.7 billion in Q2 2023[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 15.0 billion, up from RMB 8.1 billion in Q1 2024[30] - Operating profit surged from RMB 5.2 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 11.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating profit margin rising from 7.1% to 13.7%[42] - Core local commerce operating profit increased from RMB 9.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating profit margin rising from 17.8% to 25.1%[44] - New business operating loss narrowed from RMB 2.8 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 1.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating loss margin decreasing from 14.8% to 6.1%[44] - Net profit for the period rose from RMB 5.4 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 11.4 billion in Q2 2024[46] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 14,997.3 million, compared to RMB 7,682.4 million in Q2 2023[49] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 13,606.3 million, up from RMB 7,659.9 million in Q2 2023[49] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was RMB 23,067.6 million, compared to RMB 13,944.4 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,094.7 million, up from RMB 13,151.3 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 59,586,584 thousand, up 31.7% from RMB 45,215,430 thousand in the first half of 2023[122] - Operating profit for the first half of 2024 stood at RMB 16,466,281 thousand, a 98.4% increase from RMB 8,298,720 thousand in the same period of 2023[122] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company for the first half of 2024 was RMB 16,720,459 thousand, a 107.8% increase from RMB 8,046,103 thousand in the first half of 2023[122] - Basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were RMB 2.70, up 107.7% from RMB 1.30 in the same period of 2023[122] - The Core Local Commerce segment achieved an operating profit of RMB 24,932,432 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 20,583,591 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 4,071,258 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, an improvement from the operating loss of RMB 10,221,816 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The company's basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 increased to RMB 2.70, up from RMB 1.30 in the same period of 2023[169] - The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2.58, compared to RMB 1.21 in the first half of 2023[171] - The company's net profit attributable to equity holders for the first half of 2024 was RMB 16,720,459 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 8,046,103 thousand in the same period of 2023[169] Business Segments - Revenue from local commerce segment reached RMB 60,682 million in Q2 2024[7] - New business segment reported a loss of RMB 1,314 million in Q2 2024[7] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 18.5% YoY to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[11] - Operating profit for core local commerce grew by 36.8% YoY to RMB 15.2 billion in Q2 2024[11] - The company's core local commerce segment revenue was RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024, with delivery services contributing RMB 23.0 billion[18] - The company's new business segment revenue was RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, with other services and sales (including interest income) contributing RMB 20.8 billion[18] - Core local business revenue increased by 18.5% from RMB 51.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024, driven by growth in transaction volume and active online marketing merchants[20] - New business revenue grew by 28.7% from RMB 16.8 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to growth in merchandise retail business[20] - Core local commerce revenue increased by 11.1% from RMB 54.6 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 60.7 billion in Q2 2024[33] - New business revenue grew by 15.7% from RMB 18.7 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 21.6 billion in Q2 2024[33] - The Core Local Commerce segment generated total revenue of RMB 115,307,565 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 94,085,282 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment reported a total revenue of RMB 40,219,396 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 32,496,814 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The Core Local Commerce segment achieved an operating profit of RMB 24,932,432 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 20,583,591 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] - The New Initiatives segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 4,071,258 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, an improvement from the operating loss of RMB 10,221,816 thousand for the same period in 2023[154][155] Costs and Expenses - Sales cost increased by 13.6% from RMB 42.6 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 48.4 billion in Q2 2024, but decreased as a percentage of revenue from 62.6% to 58.8%[22] - Sales cost rose by 1.6% from RMB 47.6 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 48.4 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue decreasing from 64.9% to 58.8%[35] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 6.8% from RMB 13.9 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 14.8 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue dropping from 19.0% to 18.0%[36] - R&D expenses grew by 6.8% from RMB 5.0 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 5.3 billion in Q2 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of revenue at 6.5%[37] - General and administrative expenses increased by 17.3% from RMB 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 2.7 billion in Q2 2024, with the percentage of revenue remaining stable at 3.3%[38] - Delivery-related costs increased to RMB 48,034,761 thousand in 2024 from RMB 40,305,534 thousand in 2023, a 19.2% rise[159] - Employee compensation expenses grew to RMB 22,361,745 thousand in 2024 from RMB 20,724,480 thousand in 2023, a 7.9% increase[159] - Depreciation expenses for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 3,891,360 thousand, with the majority allocated to cost of sales[174] - Depreciation expenses for right-of-use assets in the first half of 2024 amounted to RMB 1,509,567 thousand, up from RMB 1,362,572 thousand in the same period of 2023[176] - Amortization expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 118,774 thousand, a decrease from RMB 191,480 thousand in the same period last year[179] - R&D expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased to RMB 16,899 thousand from RMB 13,741 thousand in the same period last year[179] - General and administrative expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, slightly decreased to RMB 86,373 thousand from RMB 88,023 thousand in the same period last year[179] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 54,704.2 million[53] - Net cash flow from operating activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 19,056.6 million[53] - Net cash flow from investing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 5,236.9 million[53] - Net cash flow used in financing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB (20,543.2) million[53] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was RMB 23,067.6 million, compared to RMB 13,944.4 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,094.7 million, up from RMB 13,151.3 million in the first half of 2023[51] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 25,038.3 million[53] - Net cash flow from investing activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 28,571.9 million[53] - Net cash used in financing activities for Q2 2024 was RMB 20.5 billion, primarily due to repayment of borrowings and interest, and repurchase of Class B shares[56] - Capital-to-debt ratio as of June 30, 2024, was approximately 23%, calculated as total borrowings and notes payable divided by total equity attributable to equity holders[56] - Total borrowings and notes payable as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 37.5 billion[57] - The company's operating cash flow increased to RMB 25,292,946 thousand in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 19,060,031 thousand in the same period of 2023[129] - Net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 28,571,875 thousand in the first half of 2024, compared to a negative RMB 10,548,255 thousand in the same period of 2023[129] - The company's net cash flow from financing activities was negative RMB 32,413,691 thousand in the first half of 2024, compared to negative RMB 1,697,222 thousand in the same period of 2023[130] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased by RMB 21,196,521 thousand in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 54,704,168 thousand at the end of the period[130] Investments and Assets - The company holds a significant investment in Li Auto with a book value of RMB 15.1 billion, representing 5.3% of total assets, and owns 258,171,601 Class A ordinary shares, equivalent to 12.94% equity[62] - Profit generated from the investment in Li Auto for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 500 million[62] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 285,558,370 thousand, a decrease of 2.5% from RMB 293,029,632 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Property, plant, and equipment as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 29,493,278 thousand, a 13.5% increase from RMB 25,977,845 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Intangible assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 30,311,940 thousand, a slight decrease of 0.3% from RMB 30,397,947 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Total equity attributable to equity holders of the company as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 160,555,342 thousand, a 5.6% increase from RMB 152,013,207 thousand as of December 31, 2023[124] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 125,059,010 thousand from RMB 141,073,265 thousand compared to the end of 2023[125] - Non-current liabilities decreased to RMB 30,803,061 thousand from RMB 40,199,170 thousand[125] - Current liabilities decreased to RMB 94,255,949 thousand from RMB 100,874,095 thousand[125] - Trade payables increased slightly to RMB 23,021,223 thousand from RMB 22,980,506 thousand[125] - Merchant payables increased to RMB

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [3] Core Views - Organizational restructuring has significantly boosted the growth potential of the core local commerce business, with the core local commerce segment contributing approximately 73.8% of total revenue in Q2 2024, generating 60.7 billion yuan [2] - The new business segment showed a notable improvement, with revenue increasing by 28.7% year-over-year to 21.57 billion yuan in Q2 2024, and operating losses narrowing to 1.31 billion yuan from 2.76 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [2] - The company continues to repurchase shares, with a board resolution to buy back up to $1 billion worth of Class B ordinary shares, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 82.3 billion yuan, a 21% year-over-year increase, with operating profit surging 139% to 11.3 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising 78% to 13.6 billion yuan [1] - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3,333 billion yuan, 3,829 billion yuan, and 4,382 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 40.9 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 63 billion yuan for the same periods [3] Business Segments - The "Pinhaofan" (拼好饭) service achieved a peak daily order volume of 8 million orders in Q2 2024, demonstrating strong performance [2] - The new business segment, including Meituan Youxuan, improved operational efficiency through enhanced product quality and supplier collaboration, leading to higher average order values and reduced losses [2] Valuation and Metrics - The company's market capitalization stands at 719.8 billion HKD, with a closing price of 115.7 HKD and total shares outstanding of 6.22 billion [5] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 34.16 in 2023 to 12.22 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in its core local commerce business while continuing to reduce losses in new business segments, driven by ongoing organizational reforms [3]