证券分析师：高博文 证书编号：S1160521080001 证券分析师：陈子怡 证书编号：S1160522070002 联系人：刘雪莹 电话：021-23586475 开始显现》 资料来源：Choice，东方财富证券研究所 盈利预测 行业竞争加剧； 政策监管风险。 东方财富证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格 分析师申明： 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数据均来 自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和 公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。 投资建议的评级标准： 报告中投资建议所涉及的评级分为股票评级和行业评级（另有说明的除外）。评级标准为报告发布日后3到12 个月内的相对市场表现，也即：以报告发布日后的3到12个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证 券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。其中：A股市场以沪深300指数为基准；新三板市场以三板成指（针对 协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的）为基准；香港市场以恒生指数为基准；美国市场以标 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 美团-W（03690.HK）2023 年报点评 推荐（维持） 23Q4 业绩超预期，预计 24 年基本盘稳步复 苏，新业务加速减亏 事项： 23Q4 收入/利润均超预期。公司 Q4 实现收入 737 亿元，YOY+23%，调整后净 利润 44 亿元，YOY+428%，经营利润 17.6 亿。其中，核心本地商业分部收入 为 551.3 亿，YOY+26.8%，经营利润为 80.2 亿，YOY+11.1%；新业务收入 185.7 亿，YOY +11.5%，经营亏损 48.3 亿。经营利润率为-26.0%，同比收窄 12.8pct， 减亏超预期。 评论： 核心本地稳健增长，闪购维持高增。Q4 核心本地商业收入 551.3 亿， YOY+26.8%，经营利润为 80.2 亿，YOY+11.1%，均略超此前彭博一致预期。 Q4 即时配送交易笔数（外卖+闪送）yoy+25%至 60 亿单，好于一致预期，表 现较好增长态势。具体来看，1）外卖：基本符合预期。收入、单量官方未披 露，我们估计 23Q4 收入 yoy+18%至 384 亿元，交易笔数 yoy+25%至 53 亿单， 受去年同期高基数下外 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 《美团2Q2023季报点评：核心本地商业OPM 21.8% 超市场预期，凸显竞争优势》 2023.09.10 《美团 1Q2023 季报点评：核心本地商业复苏 强劲，重视估值性价比》2023.06.14 《美团 4Q2022 季报点评：锚定下限，未来 可期》2023.03.28 经营概况：（1）业绩：4Q23 实现收入 737 亿元，同比增 22.6%；毛利率 35.3%， 环比增加 1.4pct；公司 4Q23 经营利润 18 亿元，经营利润率为 2.4%。经调整 EBITDA 为 37 亿元，同比增长 26.5%；经调整净利润为 44 亿元，同比增长 427.6%。 （2）运营数据：4Q23 即时配送交易笔数 60.5 亿单，同比增 25.2%。其中，①美 团闪购：2023 年订单量同比增长超 40%，年度活跃商家同比增长近 30%，美团闪 电仓已覆盖 200 多个城市。②到店、酒店及旅游：2023 年到店、酒店及旅游交易 金额同比增长超过 100%，年度交易用户及年度活跃商家数同比增长分别超过 30% 和 60%。③新业务：前置仓业务美团买菜升级为全新品牌小象超市， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a slight adjustment of the SOTP target price from HKD 180.00 to HKD 175.00 [6][27]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2024, 17% in Q2 2024, and 17% for the full year 2024, despite macroeconomic challenges and strategic adjustments in new business areas [4][20]. - The adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 has been raised by 19% following the updated forecasts [4][22]. - The report introduces forecasts for 2026, indicating a continued positive outlook for the company's financial performance [4]. Financial Summary - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 is projected at RMB 5,447 million, with a margin of 8.2%, and is expected to increase to RMB 8,788 million in Q2 2024 with a margin of 10.8% [3][4]. - The core local business is anticipated to generate revenues of RMB 8,601 million in Q1 2024, increasing to RMB 11,874 million in Q2 2024 [3]. - New business segments are projected to incur losses of RMB 3,153 million in Q1 2024, with losses expected to narrow over time [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation for the restaurant delivery business is set at USD 53 billion based on a 15x P/E multiple for 2024, reflecting a 60% discount compared to global peers [24]. - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x P/GMV multiple, which is a 20% discount relative to comparable companies [25]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately USD 71.08 billion [29]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net income of RMB 32,016 million in 2024, with a net income margin of 9.9% [22]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024 is projected to be RMB 5.03, reflecting a 19% increase from previous estimates [22][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company's core local business is showing robust growth, with a revenue increase of 26.8% year-over-year in Q4 2023, reaching 55.13 billion yuan [19][40] - The company has undergone organizational restructuring to enhance synergy within its core local business, which is expected to significantly reduce losses in its community group-buying segment [19][20] - The projected fair value per share is 176.38 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [19] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2023, the company reported total revenue of 73.696 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.6%, with a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.375 billion yuan [19][40] - The core local business generated revenue of 55.131 billion yuan in Q4 2023, with an operating profit of 8.019 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 11.1% [19][40] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 276.745 billion yuan, a 25.8% increase, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 23.253 billion yuan [19][44] Business Segment Analysis - The core local business segment's revenue for 2023 was 206.907 billion yuan, growing by 28.7% year-over-year, while the operating profit was 38.699 billion yuan, up 31.2% [19][45] - The new business segment, which includes community group buying, generated revenue of 69.838 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant operating loss of 20.166 billion yuan [19][45] - The company is focusing on reducing losses in its new business segment, with a clear target for loss reduction in community group buying [19][50] Strategic and Organizational Developments - The company has implemented a strategic transformation involving multiple organizational adjustments to adapt to changing market conditions and enhance operational efficiency [19][51] - The report highlights the importance of strategic evolution in driving organizational change, with the company having undergone several major iterations since its inception [19][51] - The latest organizational changes aim to consolidate business units and improve collaboration, particularly in the core local business and new business segments [19][20]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 总览: 收入增长稳健, 调整后利润率 5.9% 收入同比增长 23%,核心本地各业务均呈现稳建增长。202304,美团实现营业收入 737 亿元,同比增长 23%。按收入类型划分,本季度即时配送服务/交易佣金/营销服务收 入分别同比增长+11%/+33%/+41%。与去年同期相比，营销服务收入增速回升明显，主 要得益于到店酒旅需求复苏、以及外卖和闪购的货币化率提升,部分被到店酒旅的订 阅相关营销产品降价所抵消。 美团-W（03690.HK） 买入 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 买入(维持) | | 合理估值 | 125.00 - 144.00 港元 | | 收盘价 | 93.30 港元 | | 总市值/流通市值 52 周最高价/最低价 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 581698/5 ...

证券研究报告 核心本地商业稳健增长，新业务显著减亏 得益于本地商业的快速恢复，核心本地商业取得稳健增长 考虑到公司核心本地商业业务的稳健增长以及新业务板块的显著减亏，我 们上调了对公司收入及经调整净利润的预估，预计 2024-2026 年收入分别 为 3328/3907/4440 亿元，对应增速分别为 20.3%/17.4%/13.7%，经调整净 利润分别为 340/492/601 亿元，对应增速分别为 46.1%/44.9%/22.2%。考虑 到美团仍有较快增长，参考可比公司估值倍数，我们给予公司 2024 年 18 倍 PE（基于经调整净利润），则公司合理市值为 6114 亿元/6740 亿港元， 目标价 97.91 元/107.94 港元（汇率取 0.90706），维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：经济下行风险；本地生活业务竞争加剧风险；公司运营风险； 社会服务/本地生活服务 Ⅱ 增持（维持） 93.40 港元 107.94 港元 2024 年 03 月 27 日 美团-W(03690) 事件： 2023 年全年，公司核心本地商业分部的收入为 2069 亿元，同比增长 28.7%； 经营利润为 387 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improved competitive dynamics in core businesses and a narrowing loss in new businesses [15][19] Core Views - The company's 4Q2023 revenue increased by 22.56% YoY, with adjusted net profit surging by 427.62% YoY [19] - The company's 2023 revenue reached RMB 276.745 billion, a 25.82% YoY increase, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 13.856 billion, turning from a loss in the previous year [19] - The company's 4Q2023 gross margin rose by 5.75 percentage points, while the expense ratio increased by 2.84 percentage points [15][20] - The company's real-time delivery transactions in 4Q2023 grew by 25.2% YoY, with peak daily food delivery orders reaching 78 million [21] Business Performance Core Local Commerce - Core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 55.13 billion, with a YoY growth of 26.82% [1] - Core local commerce revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 206.91 billion, a 28.71% YoY increase [2] - Delivery services accounted for 39.77% of core local commerce revenue in 4Q2023, with a YoY growth of 10.90% [2] - Commission income grew by 32.73% YoY in 4Q2023, contributing 35.24% to core local commerce revenue [2] New Business - New business revenue in 4Q2023 was RMB 18.57 billion, with a YoY growth of 11.46% [1] - New business revenue for the full year 2023 was RMB 69.84 billion, a 17.98% YoY increase [2] - The new business segment reported an operating loss of RMB 20.17 billion in 2023, with a negative operating margin of 28.88% [2] Financial Metrics - The company's 2023 gross margin was 35.12%, up 7.04 percentage points YoY [20] - The company's 2023 expense ratio was 32.74%, with sales and marketing expenses accounting for 21.18% of revenue [20] - The company's adjusted EPS for 2023 was RMB 3.73, with a projected increase to RMB 9.32 by 2026 [23] - The company's 2023 ROE (diluted) was 9.12%, with a projected increase to 18.57% by 2026 [7] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to RMB 424.038 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 13.72% [23] - The company's adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 58.121 billion by 2026 [23] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 40.52% by 2026 [7] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The company's core local commerce business has shown stable competitive dynamics, with significant growth in delivery and commission income [2][19] - The new business segment is expected to focus on reducing losses, with a projected narrowing of losses in 2024 and beyond [15][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [13] Core Views - The report indicates that the home delivery business is expected to show steady growth, while the in-store profit margin is likely to stabilize. New businesses are anticipated to significantly reduce losses, driving profit release [24][25] - The forecast for non-IFRS net profit has been adjusted to 31.7 billion, 44.4 billion, and 61.6 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.4%, 40.0%, and 38.7% [14][15] Summary by Sections Home Delivery Business - The home delivery business is projected to maintain steady growth in order volume, although the average order value may decline due to macroeconomic factors. Profit margins are expected to slightly decrease, with future focus on consumer recovery to drive order growth and potential upward revisions in average order value [2][24] In-store Business - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the post-redemption GTV performance in the in-store business for 2024. Profit margins are expected to stabilize, and a clearer market structure may restore operational profit margins, boosting market confidence [2][24] New Businesses - The community group buying business will prioritize user experience over market share expansion, aiming to reduce losses through increased average order value and reduced subsidies. Other new businesses are expected to reach breakeven [2][24] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 327.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 31.7 billion, reflecting a 36.4% increase [15][14] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including diluted EPS of 5.1, 7.1, and 9.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 11.8, and 8.5 [15][14]

估值：考虑2024年到店业务的投入和社区团购刚开始减亏，我们认为2025 年公司业绩或能反映美团实际价值，我们给予2025年本地商业15倍市盈率 ，并考虑新业务0.5倍市销率，保守原则不考虑社区团购业务，折现2024年 目标价为111港元（原93港元），维持买入。 1年股价表现 资料来源: FactSet 3/23 7/23 11/23 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%3690 HK 恒生指数 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 图表 1: 2023年4季度财务状况摘要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------|-------------------------------|---------|---------|---------| | 财务数据一览 年结 12月31 ...