Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK$41.46, reflecting a 10% upside potential from the current price of HK$37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has announced a positive earnings forecast for 1H24, with expected revenue growth of 55% year-on-year and net profit growth of 90%. This outperformance is attributed to increased global recognition of its IP, expansion of product categories, and strong overseas revenue growth [3][4]. - The company is rapidly expanding its overseas market presence, with approximately 20 new retail stores opened in 1H24 and plans to add 50 to 60 more by the end of 2024, totaling 130 to 140 overseas stores [4]. - The company is effectively controlling costs and enhancing profitability, with a significant improvement in profit margins due to optimized product costs and strengthened expense management [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 10,101 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60%. The Non-IFRS adjusted net profit is projected to be 2,092 million, reflecting a growth rate of 107% [6][7]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 includes revenues of 12,916 million and 15,458 million, respectively, with corresponding Non-IFRS adjusted net profits of 2,734 million and 3,297 million [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company is validating its overseas expansion capabilities, having opened stores in Vietnam, the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, and Thailand, with significant first-day revenues reported [4]. - The local IP strategy is proving successful, with collaborations and high sales figures in new product categories and partnerships [4]. Product Development - The company continues to see strong demand for its existing IP and new product launches, with several new categories and collaborations performing exceptionally well in the market [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 55% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with net profit growth of no less than 90% [4] - The company has seen rapid revenue growth outside mainland China, with significant increases in retail stores and robot stores in regions such as Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas [4] - Continuous product innovation and category expansion have contributed to revenue growth, with new product lines being developed and launched [4] - The company has optimized product costs and strengthened expense management, leading to improved profitability [4] - The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 18.24 billion and 24.29 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.5% and 33.2% [4][6] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.345 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.4% [5] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 1.082 billion, showing a significant increase of 127.5% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for 2023 is projected to be 61.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 0.80, 1.36, and 1.81 respectively [6][12] - The company’s revenue from offline channels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected growth rate of 64.68% in 2024 [7][8] Valuation - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27.0 and 20.3 for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with a target valuation range of 40.80 to 43.52 HKD [4][9]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 51.3, implying a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 40.2 [1] - The target price is derived using a DCF valuation method, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages [1] Core Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is a leader in China's trendy toy industry, benefiting from its strong IP incubation and monetization capabilities, which drive its global expansion [1] - The company has three key advantages: 1) industry leadership in a high-growth segment, 2) competitive moat through IP incubation and monetization, and 3) a well-developed omnichannel sales network [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion is gaining momentum, reducing its reliance on the Chinese market and providing a new growth driver [1] IP Incubation and Monetization - Pop Mart operates as an integrated IP platform, covering the entire value chain from IP acquisition, incubation, product design, production, to sales and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company has built a rich portfolio of over 40 artist IPs, with 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in sales each, reducing reliance on any single IP [8][12] - Pop Mart's IP monetization is supported by a diversified product portfolio, including blind boxes, figurines, BJDs, plush toys, and building blocks, catering to various consumer needs [17][18][23] Sales Network and DTC Strategy - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive omnichannel sales network, covering both offline (retail stores, robot stores, exhibitions) and online (Tmall, JD, Douyin, and its own app) channels [34][35] - The company's DTC (direct-to-consumer) strategy accounts for 88% of total revenue, enabling better consumer interaction, data collection, and personalized shopping experiences [44][45] - As of 2023, Pop Mart has 3,435 million registered members in mainland China, with a member repurchase rate of 50% and member sales contributing 92% of total revenue [46] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its overseas presence, with 80 retail stores and 159 robot stores in over 20 countries and regions as of 2023 [48][50] - Overseas revenue grew at a CAGR of over 140% from 2021 to 2023, reaching RMB 1.07 billion and accounting for 17% of total revenue in 2023 [51][52] - The company's overseas strategy includes localized product offerings, collaborations with global IPs (e.g., Marvel, Disney), and the establishment of overseas supply chains, such as its factory in Vietnam [54][55] Financial Performance and Outlook - Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.1 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.6% [56] - Overseas revenue is projected to grow faster than domestic revenue, increasing from RMB 1.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.7 billion in 2026, driven by continued market expansion [57] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 65.0% in 2026, supported by cost optimization and economies of scale [60]

2024 年 07 月 21 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) yaol02@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 研究所: 证券分析师: 姚蕾 S0350521080006 [Table_Title] 2024H1 业绩超预期,海外高增+国内品类 扩张双催化 ——泡泡玛特(9992.HK)2024H1 业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 7 月 18 日,公司公告正面盈利预告,预计 2024H1 收入同比增 长不低于 55%,利润(不包括未完成统计的金融工具公允价值变动损益) 同比增长不低于 90%。 投资要点: 预计 2024H1 业绩大超市场预期。 (1)预计 2024H1 收入同比增长不低于 55%(即 43.9 亿元+),利润(不 包括未完成统计的金融工具公允价值变动损益)同比增长不低于 90%(即 9.1 亿元+),主要系:①丰富产品品类,提升 IP 全球知名 度,海外收入高速增长;②优化产品成本,加强费用管控。 (2)按照收入/利润同比增速+55%/+90%计,预计 2024H1 净利率约 20.6%(20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of over 55% in the first half of 2024, with projected revenue of at least 3.78 billion yuan, driven by domestic recovery and rapid overseas sales growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to increase by no less than 90%, corresponding to a net profit of at least 910 million yuan [6][12]. - Established IPs continue to perform strongly, with new IPs being launched in an orderly manner, showing initial success in category expansion. For instance, established IPs like SKULLPANDA, MOLLY, DIMOO, and THE MONSTERS saw revenue growth of 20.3%, 27.2%, 27.6%, and 39.9% respectively in 2023 [7][10]. - The company's international expansion is progressing smoothly, with overseas revenue reaching 1.07 billion yuan in 2023 and maintaining a high growth rate of 245% to 250% in the first quarter of 2024. The company expects overseas revenue for the entire year of 2024 to be no less than 1 billion yuan [11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue of 8.224 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. The net profit is projected to be 1.928 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 78.2% compared to 2023 [3][15]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.44 yuan for 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 21 times [12][15]. IP Performance and New Launches - The company is set to launch new IPs such as Peach Riot, CHAKA, POLAR, and Nyota in the first half of 2024, alongside established IPs that are performing well [7][10]. - The company is also expanding into new categories like games and parks, with the launch of the game "Dream Home" achieving over 700,000 downloads within three weeks [10][11]. International Expansion - The company has accelerated its overseas store openings, with new stores launched in Milan, Amsterdam, and Myeongdong, South Korea. The LABUBU IP-themed store in Bangkok achieved over 10 million yuan in sales on its opening day, setting a new record for overseas store sales [11][12].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·家庭电器及用品(HS) 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 公司 IP 价值持续释放，全年利润有望超预期 2024 年 06月 19日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 张良卫 [Table_EPS] 执业证书：S0600516070001 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 021-60199793 营业总收入（百万元） 4651 6344 8782 11347 13543 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) 2.67 36.40 38.42 29.22 19.35 证券分析师 周良玖 归母净利润（百万元） 475.66 1,082.34 1,628.75 2,154.36 2,641.13 执业证书：S0600517110002 同比(%) (44.32) 127.55 50.48 32.27 22.59 021-60199793 zhoulj@dwzq.com.cn Non-IFRS净利润（百万元） 573.54 1,190.52 1,708.59 2,214.14 2,680.87 研究助理 郭若娜 同比(%) (42.74) 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company continues to validate its product category expansion logic and accelerates its overseas market penetration [2] - New product lines, including the Labubu Forest Secret Base series building blocks, are expected to enhance domestic market growth and same-store sales [2] - The company is leveraging various promotional strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and KOLs, to enhance its IP and cultural outreach [2] - The company has initiated a global expansion strategy, transitioning from a B2B model to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, with significant growth in overseas revenue [3] - The company’s overseas revenue for 2023 reached 1.066 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 134.9% [3] - The company anticipates a multiplier effect on growth from its IP potential and channel expansion, projecting overseas revenue growth of no less than 100% in 2024 [3] - The Douyin channel has shown rapid growth, with significant increases in GMV [4] Summary by Sections Product Expansion - The company has launched new products, including the Labubu series and POPCARD collectible cards, with strong initial sales performance [2] - The company plans to introduce three major new product lines in 2024, which are expected to increase the proportion of non-blind box products [2] Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of June 11, 2024, is 38.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 51.1 billion HKD [3] - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 16.9% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant increase in contribution expected in 2024 [3] Financial Projections - The report projects the company’s revenue to reach 86.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 16.34 billion yuan [6] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 17.37 billion yuan for 2024, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 26.8 for 2024 [6][7]

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好,我是国海传媒分析师方默云,然后今天给大家分享的是,简短分享一下泡马特的一个更新,也是主要对整个出海的这条线做一个重新的梳理跟展开。首先就是整个出海的情况,其实公司, 确实已经过了0到1的这个阶段现在是从1到100的这个阶段其实最早的海外业务最早从有海外收入是从17年但正式的海外业务开始于18年而在18年到21年这个阶段公司主要是采用B2P和B2B2C ...

本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好,我是国海传媒分析师方默云,然后今天给大家分享的是,简短分享一下泡马特的一个更新,也是主要对整个出海的这条线做一个重新的梳理跟展开。首先就是整个出海的情况,其实公司, 确实已经过了0到1的这个阶段现在是从1到100的这个阶段其实最早的海外业务最早从有海外收入是从17年但正式的海外业务开始于18年而在18年到21年这个阶段公司主要是采用B2P和B2B2C ...