Investment Rating - Maintains an **OUTPERFORM** rating with a target price of **HK$48.90** [2][4] Core Views - **Revenue and Profit Exceed Expectations**: Pop Mart reported 1H24 revenue of **RMB 4.56 billion**, up **62% YoY**, with adjusted net profit of **RMB 1.02 billion**, up **90% YoY** [2][4] - **Domestic and Overseas Growth**: Domestic revenue grew **32% YoY** to **RMB 3.21 billion**, while overseas revenue surged **260% YoY** to **RMB 1.35 billion**, accounting for **30%** of total revenue [2][4][8] - **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved by **3.6pct YoY** to **64%**, driven by higher sales prices, increased overseas business contribution, and improved production efficiency [4][8] Domestic Business - **Retail Store Performance**: Retail store revenue grew **25% YoY** to **RMB 1.47 billion**, with same-store sales up **14% YoY** [2][4] - **Online Channels**: Online revenue increased **34% YoY**, with strong growth in platforms like Tmall and Douyin [2][4] - **Store Expansion**: Net addition of **11 retail stores**, bringing the total to **374**, with further expansion planned [2][4] Overseas Business - **Rapid Growth**: Overseas revenue reached **RMB 1.35 billion**, up **260% YoY**, with **12 new retail stores** added [2][8] - **DTC Strategy**: Direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy focused on Europe and Southeast Asia, with offline sales contributing **70%** of overseas revenue [2][8] - **Market Penetration**: Expansion into new markets like Vietnam, Netherlands, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to open **50-60 stores** annually [2][8] Profit Structure - **Gross Margin Drivers**: Gross margin improved due to higher sales prices (**+2.7pct**), increased overseas business contribution (**+2.2pct**), and cost efficiencies (**+1.3pct**) [4] - **Expense Control**: Sales expense ratio decreased by **1.5pct YoY** to **29.7%**, while management expense ratio dropped by **2.2pct YoY** to **9.5%** [4] - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: Adjusted net profit margin rose **3.3pct YoY** to **22.3%** [4] IP and Product Development - **IP Revenue Growth**: Molly revenue grew **90% YoY** to **RMB 780 million**, while The Monsters revenue surged **3.5x YoY** to **RMB 630 million** [4][8] - **New IPs**: Successful launch of new IPs like Crybaby and Hirono, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure [4][8] - **MEGA and Plush Toys**: MEGA revenue grew **1.4x YoY** to **RMB 590 million**, while plush toy revenue surged **10x YoY** to **RMB 450 million** [4][8] Future Outlook - **Revenue Guidance**: Pop Mart expects **2024 revenue growth of at least 60%**, with overseas revenue growth exceeding **200%** [2][4] - **Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit for 2024-26 is projected to grow **97%**, **31%**, and **24%**, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of **22.7%**, **23.2%**, and **23.7%** [4][8] - **Valuation**: The company is valued at **25x FY24 PE**, with a target market cap of **HK$64.8 billion** [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) [2][3] Core Views - Pop Mart's 2024H1 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 4 558 billion and net profit of RMB 921 million representing year-over-year growth of 62% and 93 3% respectively [2] - Overseas business revenue surged by 260% indicating a harvest period for global expansion [2] - The company's gross margin and adjusted net margin improved to 64 0% and 22 3% respectively driven by product design optimization cost control and increased high-margin overseas sales [2] - Pop Mart's IP recognition continues to grow with artist IP revenue reaching RMB 3 69 billion accounting for 81 0% of total revenue [2] Financial Performance Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 3 206 billion up 31 5% year-over-year with significant growth in TikTok sales up 91% [2] - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1 351 billion up 259 6% year-over-year with Southeast Asia North America and Australia showing particularly strong growth [2] - Revenue from offline online and wholesale channels in China was RMB 1 79 billion RMB 1 10 billion and RMB 320 million respectively [2] Product Categories - Revenue from hand figures MEGA plush toys and derivatives was RMB 2 66 billion RMB 590 million RMB 450 million and RMB 870 million respectively [2] - Plush toys saw the most significant growth with a 993 6% year-over-year increase [2] Profitability - Gross margin increased by 3 7 percentage points to 64 0% while adjusted net margin rose by 3 3 percentage points to 22 3% [2] - Sales and administrative expense ratios decreased by 1 5 and 2 2 percentage points respectively [2] Future Outlook - Pop Mart plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia and Europe with a focus on opening flagship stores in global landmarks and enhancing online platforms [2] - The company aims to enrich its product lines through collaborations with well-known brands and artists to boost global influence [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 9 954 billion in 2024 RMB 12 462 billion in 2025 and RMB 15 394 billion in 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2 009 billion in 2024 RMB 2 508 billion in 2025 and RMB 3 175 billion in 2026 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to be 28X in 2024 23X in 2025 and 18X in 2026 [3] Operational Efficiency - Inventory turnover days decreased from 133 days in 2023 to 101 days in 2024H1 reflecting improved inventory management [2] - The company's total asset turnover is expected to increase from 0 68 in 2023 to 0 91 in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 27 70X in 2023 to 11 65X in 2026 indicating improving valuation attractiveness [8] - ROE is expected to rise from 13 93% in 2023 to 21 03% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit for the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by a successful global and multi-category strategy. The IP matrix has formed a strong competitive landscape, contributing to the underlying growth of performance. New categories such as plush toys have seen explosive growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 920 million yuan, up 93.3% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit reached 1.02 billion yuan, growing by 90.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 64%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 22.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [5][8]. Global Expansion - The company's global layout is entering a harvest period, with revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas regions reaching 1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 259.6%, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue, up 16.3 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue distribution from overseas markets includes Southeast Asia (41.1%), East Asia and Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan (35.4%), North America (13.2%), and Europe, Australia, and others (10.3%) [5][4]. IP Matrix and Product Categories - The company’s top three IPs, MOLLY, THE MONSTERS, and SKULLPANDA, generated revenues of 780 million, 630 million, and 570 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.1%, 292.2%, and 9.2%. Additionally, other IPs such as DIMOO, Hirono, Zsiga, and CRYBABY also achieved over 100 million yuan in revenue during the same period. The company successfully expanded beyond traditional blind box figures, with revenue from figures/derivatives and other categories accounting for 58.3%, 19%, 12.9%, and 9.8% respectively. Notably, plush toys generated 446 million yuan in revenue, nearly a 1000% increase year-on-year, significantly boosting sales for THE MONSTERS and CRYBABY [5][4].

哦哦 本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者关联机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准会议严禁录音或转发 任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资人大家晚上好我是国海传媒方如云然后今天来继续进行我们的泡玛特五节课的第二节课就是从渠道角度来穿透的来看泡玛特那今天正好就是在刚才呢泡泡也发布了今年上半年的整体的一个正式的预告那我可能先花一些时间来给大家大概分享一下今年上半年的业绩还有它整个上半年的一些亮点 首先是确实从业绩的角度它无论从收入还是利润都是同比非常高的增长并且是超过前段时间的预告的也是超大家的预 ...

Revenue Growth - Revenue increased by 62.0% to RMB 4,557,831 thousand compared to the same period last year[2] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 4,557,831 thousand, a 62% increase compared to RMB 2,813,812 thousand in the same period of 2023[14] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 4,557,831 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 2,813,812 thousand in the same period in 2023[18] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 4,557.8 million, a 62.0% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets[38] - The company's revenue increased by 62.0% year-over-year, from RMB 2,813.8 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 4,557.8 million in the first half of 2024[47] Profitability - Gross profit rose by 71.9% to RMB 2,919,105 thousand year-over-year[2] - Operating profit surged by 109.5% to RMB 1,126,417 thousand[2] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners grew by 93.3% to RMB 921,333 thousand[2] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 964,142 thousand, a 102% increase compared to RMB 477,242 thousand in the same period of 2023[14] - Gross profit rose by 71.9% to RMB 2,919.1 million, with gross margin improving to 64.0% in H1 2024[66] - Operating profit more than doubled, increasing by 109.5% to RMB 1,126.4 million in H1 2024[70] - Net profit increased by 102.0% from RMB 477.2 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 964.1 million in the reporting period[72] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit increased to RMB 1,017.6 million, with a non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin of 22.3%, up from 19.0% in the same period last year[73] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share increased by 96.0% to RMB 69.49 cents[2] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 69.49 cents, up from RMB 35.46 cents in 2023[26] - Diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 69.22 cents, compared to RMB 35.42 cents in 2023[27] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets increased to RMB 11,017,479 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 9,968,863 thousand at the end of 2023[5] - Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to RMB 3,608,674 thousand from RMB 2,077,927 thousand at the end of 2023[5] - Total equity attributable to the company's owners increased to RMB 8,399,036 thousand from RMB 7,769,927 thousand[6] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 2,564,822 thousand from RMB 2,188,481 thousand[6] - Non-current assets slightly increased to RMB 2,302,138 thousand from RMB 2,285,394 thousand[5] - Trade receivables decreased to RMB 263,722 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 321,337 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with a significant reduction in receivables from related parties[28] - Trade payables increased to RMB 555,137 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 444,944 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with 57.5% of payables within 30 days[34][35] - Payable licensing fees increased to RMB 287,214 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 194,200 thousand as of December 31, 2023, with the current portion rising to RMB 273,026 thousand[36][37] - Inventory increased slightly from RMB 904.7 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 916.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with inventory turnover days reduced from 133 days to 101 days[76] - Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly from RMB 2,077.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 3,608.7 million as of June 30, 2024, driven by increased cash flow from operations and reduced fixed deposits[77] - Trade payables increased from RMB 444.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 555.1 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days increasing from 53 days to 56 days[78] - The company had no bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024, and the asset-liability ratio increased slightly from 22.0% as of December 31, 2023, to 23.3% as of June 30, 2024[79] Regional Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Mainland China business reached RMB 3,206,354 thousand, accounting for 70.3% of total revenue, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas business reached RMB 1,351,477 thousand, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[14] - Segment profit from Mainland China business was RMB 886,788 thousand, and segment profit from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas business was RMB 400,191 thousand, totaling RMB 1,286,979 thousand[14] - Revenue from retail store sales in Mainland China was RMB 1,471,276 thousand, and revenue from online sales was RMB 1,095,669 thousand[17] - Revenue from retail store sales in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas was RMB 893,505 thousand, and revenue from online sales was RMB 247,244 thousand[15] - Domestic revenue in mainland China grew by 31.5% year-on-year to RMB 3,206.4 million, while overseas revenue surged by 259.6% to RMB 1,351.5 million, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[38] - Revenue from offline channels in Mainland China grew by 23.1%, from RMB 1,450.6 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 1,786.3 million in the first half of 2024[49] - Revenue from retail stores in Mainland China increased by 24.7%, contributing 82.4% of total offline revenue in the first half of 2024[50] - Revenue from robot stores in Mainland China grew by 16.2%, accounting for 17.6% of total offline revenue in the first half of 2024[50] - Overseas revenue surged significantly, with offline channels in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets generating RMB 946.7 million in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 190.4 million in the same period of 2023[48] - Online revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets reached RMB 247.2 million in the first half of 2024, a substantial increase from RMB 56.8 million in the first half of 2023[48] - Offline revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets skyrocketed by 397.3% YoY, from RMB 190.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB 946.7 million in H1 2024, with retail store revenue growing by 441.5% and robot store revenue increasing by 109.7%[55][56][57] - Online revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets surged by 335.4% YoY, from RMB 56.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB 247.2 million in H1 2024, with Pop Mart official website revenue growing by 465.5% and Lazada revenue increasing by 387.9%[58] - Wholesale and other revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets increased by 22.5% YoY, from RMB 128.6 million in H1 2023 to RMB 157.5 million in H1 2024, driven by business expansion and increased brand recognition[59] - Revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets grew by 259.6% YoY, from RMB 375.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,351.5 million in H1 2024, with Southeast Asia revenue increasing by 478.3% and North America revenue growing by 377.7%[60] Product and IP Performance - MOLLY achieved revenue of RMB 782.2 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.1%[39] - THE MONSTERS achieved revenue of RMB 626.8 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 292.2%[39] - SKULLPANDA achieved revenue of RMB 574.6 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%[39] - Hirono (Xiaoye) achieved revenue growth of 124.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[40] - Zsiga achieved revenue growth of 169.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[40] - MEGA COLLECTION achieved revenue of RMB 586.1 million in the first half of 2024, accounting for 12.9% of total revenue[40] - Plush products achieved revenue of RMB 446.1 million in the first half of 2024, accounting for 9.8% of total revenue[40] - Revenue from self-developed products increased by 69.5% to RMB 4,382.7 million in H1 2024, accounting for 96.2% of total revenue[61] - Artist IP revenue grew by 70.4% to RMB 3,687.8 million, representing 81.0% of total revenue in H1 2024[63] - Licensed IP revenue increased by 64.9% to RMB 694.9 million in H1 2024[63] - MEGA product revenue surged by 141.9% to RMB 586.1 million in H1 2024[64] - Plush toy revenue skyrocketed by 993.6% to RMB 446.1 million in H1 2024[64] Expenses and Costs - Cost of goods sold for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,282,095 thousand, up from RMB 923,921 thousand in 2023[19] - Employee benefits expenses increased to RMB 657,748 thousand in 2024 from RMB 496,416 thousand in 2023[19] - Commission and e-commerce platform service fees surged to RMB 206,785 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 70,262 thousand in 2023[19] - Advertising and marketing expenses rose to RMB 198,592 thousand in 2024 from RMB 141,978 thousand in 2023[19] - Distribution and sales expenses grew by 54.1% to RMB 1,353.2 million, driven by employee benefits and lease-related expenses[67] - The number of retail stores increased by 79, contributing to higher lease-related expenses of RMB 333.6 million in H1 2024[67] - Income tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 264,296 thousand, compared to RMB 141,305 thousand in 2023[23] - Capital expenditures for the first half of 2024 totaled RMB 186.4 million, a decrease from RMB 214.1 million in the same period last year[82] - The company employed 5,470 staff as of June 30, 2024, with employee costs amounting to RMB 657.7 million[83] Share Repurchase and Dividends - The company repurchased 4,700,000 ordinary shares during the six months ended June 30, 2024, at a total cost of HKD 85,827,000 (approximately RMB 78,031,000)[33] - The company repurchased a total of 4,700,000 shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a total consideration of approximately HKD 85,826,488 during the six months ended June 30, 2024[93] - The highest price per share paid for repurchases in January 2024 was HKD 19.96, while the lowest price was HKD 17.00[94] - In February 2024, the company repurchased 810,000 shares at a highest price of HKD 18.46 and a lowest price of HKD 17.62[94] - The company will not pay an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024[90] Future Plans and Strategies - The company plans to expand its IP portfolio, enhance product categories, and focus on sustainable and eco-friendly materials to strengthen its market position[84] - The company plans to expand its global business footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, and open offline channels in major global landmarks to enhance consumer experience and brand awareness[85] - 30% of the net proceeds (HKD 1,692.5 million) will be allocated for consumer reach channels and overseas market expansion, including opening new retail stores (HKD 954.0 million) and new robot stores (HKD 346.9 million)[88] - 7.5% of the net proceeds (HKD 433.6 million) will be used for expanding business into overseas markets[88] - 18% of the net proceeds (HKD 1,040.7 million) will be allocated to expand the company's IP library, including acquiring popular IPs (HKD 693.8 million)[89] - 6% of the net proceeds (HKD 346.9 million) will be used for purchasing software and hardware to enhance digitalization and establish information systems for digital marketing, customer service, logistics, and supply chain management[88] - 10% of the net proceeds (HKD 578.2 million) will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes[89] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company's external auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, reviewed the interim financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and found no material misstatements[95] - The company's audit committee consists of two independent non-executive directors and one non-executive director, with Mr. Wu Liansheng serving as the chairman[95] - The company's board of directors includes three independent non-executive directors, providing sufficient checks and balances within the board[91] - The company's chairman and CEO, Mr. Wang Ning, also serves as the founder, ensuring consistent leadership and strategic planning[91] - The company confirmed that all directors complied with the Model Code for Securities Transactions during the six months ended June 30, 2024[92] - The company's interim results announcement and interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the company's website[96] Financial Performance Metrics - The aging analysis of trade receivables shows that 84.8% of receivables were within 3 months as of June 30, 2024, compared to 94.8% as of December 31, 2023[29] - Impairment provisions for trade receivables increased to RMB 9,338 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 7,319 thousand as of December 31, 2023[30] - Net finance income increased to RMB 83.8 million in H1 2024, up from RMB 63.4 million in the same period last year[70] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB 321.3 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 263.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days reduced from 15 days to 12 days[75] Market Expansion and Store Growth - The company opened 20 new offline stores in mainland China in the first half of 2024, bringing the total number of stores to 374[42] - The company's Douyin platform revenue reached RMB 208.9 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.7%[43] - The company's cumulative registered members in mainland China reached 38.927 million by June 30, 2024, with a member repurchase rate of 43.9%[44] - The company expanded its overseas presence with 92 stores (including joint ventures) and 162 robot stores (including joint ventures and franchises) as of June 30, 2024[45] - Retail store sales revenue in mainland China increased by 24.7% YoY, from RMB 1,179.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,471.3 million in H1 2024, with the number of stores increasing by 34 to a total of 374 stores as of June 30, 2024[51] - Robot store sales revenue in mainland China grew by 16.2% YoY, from RMB 271.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 315.0 million in H1 2024, with the number of robot stores increasing by 4 to a total of 2,189 stores as of June 30, 2024[52] - Online revenue in mainland China surged by 34.0% YoY, from RMB 817.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB 1,095.7 million in H1 2024, with significant growth in Douyin platform revenue (90.7%) and Tmall flagship store revenue (28.1%)[53] - Wholesale and other revenue in mainland China increased by 90.8% YoY, from RMB 170.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB 324.4 million in H1 2024, driven by revenue from Pop Mart City Park[54] Digital and Online Performance - The company's Douyin platform revenue reached RMB 208.9 million in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 90.7%

所以在配饰应该会成为一个新的产品线然后第二个的话就是服饰我们今天看到一些公司官方账号其实也发了一些图头未来可能会demo相关可能会出一些服饰的产品线我觉得也可以期待一下所以从产品的角度来讲我觉得核心是 探索出适合这个IP特性的一个新的品类比如说我们拿这个拉布布举例现在大家都知道拉布布了其实之前他也一直出盲盒然后包括可能会有的时候会出一些符合设计师审美但是不一定这个大众会很喜欢的这种系列 然后但是其实之前拉布这个IP一直都是相对就我们也看他收入大概是排第四嘛其实还可以但是也没有爆但是今年其实这个糖浆去年这个糖浆马卡龙其实在国内就是一个爆品然后今年四月份Lisa Bella之后其实现在不管是在泰国我觉得是在全球吧其实都是一个非常爆的品位 也让拉布布这个IP其实整体的渗透的人群其实是有了一个比较大的变化所以我们也看好公司积极的去通过品类的拓展产品线的拓展去增强这个IP的一个触达的人群这个我觉得是核心的要点并不是说它真的有什么新的 产品出来这个产品我喜不喜欢我觉得这个倒不是要点啊第三个是渠道呃渠道的话那我们也看到了就是公司年初的时候后现给的这个海外海外的渠道拓展的指引现在应该是远超了当时给的那个指引 然后去年其实就是 ...

泡泡玛特 (9992.HK 从产品出海到文化出海，泡泡玛特 海外业务增长靓丽，有望再造泡泡玛特。2023 年泡泡玛特中国内地外地区 A 实现收入 10.66 亿元，同比增长 134.86%，收入占全公司比重达到 16.9%，较 上年提升 7.1pct。2018-2023 年度，泡泡玛特中国内地外收入由 436 万元提升 至 10.7 亿元，年复合增长率高达 200.4%。根据公司规划，2024 年海外业务有 望超过集团 IPO 前 2019 年的收入（17 亿元），立志在海外再造一个泡泡玛特。 出海策略：由近到远，由试到铺。渠道方面，泡泡玛特海外渠道经历了"展 A 会 B2B-快闪店-零售店" 的变迁: 自 2017 年起主办潮玩展会, 以 B2B 批发形式 走出国门；2021 年战略重心转至 DTC，以快闪店形式较低成本试水，如 2021 年圣诞季公司在澳大利亚、日韩等落地近 20 家圣诞快闪店；最终公司选取当地 潮流地开设零售店; 截至 2023 年底, 公司共在中国内地外地区开设零售店/机器 人商店 (均含合营及加盟) 80/159 家。2023 海外线下渠道实现收入 6.40 亿元， 同比增长 324 ...

泡泡玛特（9992.HK）深度报告 从产品出海到文化出海，泡泡玛特全球化启示 2024 年 08 月 01 日 ➢ 海外业务增长靓丽，有望再造泡泡玛特。2023 年泡泡玛特中国内地外地区 实现收入 10.66 亿元，同比增长 134.86%，收入占全公司比重达到 16.9%，较 上年提升 7.1pct。2018-2023 年度，泡泡玛特中国内地外收入由 436 万元提升 至 10.7 亿元，年复合增长率高达 200.4%。根据公司规划，2024 年海外业务有 望超过集团 IPO 前 2019 年的收入（17 亿元），立志在海外再造一个泡泡玛特。 ➢ 出海策略：由近到远，由试到铺。渠道方面，泡泡玛特海外渠道经历了"展 会 B2B-快闪店-零售店"的变迁：自 2017 年起主办潮玩展会，以 B2B 批发形式 走出国门；2021 年战略重心转至 DTC，以快闪店形式较低成本试水，如 2021 年圣诞季公司在澳大利亚、日韩等落地近 20 家圣诞快闪店；最终公司选取当地 潮流地开设零售店；截至 2023 年底，公司共在中国内地外地区开设零售店/机器 人商店（均含合营及加盟）80/159 家。2023 海外线下渠道实现收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of at least 55% YoY and profit growth of at least 90% YoY [1] - The company's strong performance is attributed to increased global recognition of its brand and IPs, diversified product categories, and optimized cost control [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the US, has been successful, with high single-store sales performance [1] - The company's new product lines, including blind boxes, plush toys, building blocks, and cards, have enhanced product playability and interactivity [1] - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" has contributed to the enrichment of its IP ecosystem and strengthened emotional connections with players [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue is expected to be at least RMB 4.362 billion, and profit is expected to be at least RMB 906 million, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - The company's 2024-2025 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 9.44 billion and RMB 12.53 billion, representing YoY growth of 49.8% and 32.7%, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is projected to be RMB 2.103 billion and RMB 2.749 billion, with YoY growth of 76.6% and 30.7%, respectively [1] Product and IP Performance - Pop Mart has 16 series in the top 20 of Tmall's blind box bestseller list, including "Dragon's Roar," "SKULLPANDA Temperature," and "THE MONSTER Invisible" [1] - The LABUBU Heart Macaron blind box has sold over 200,000 units on Tmall as of July 25, 2024 [1] - The company launched its building block product line POPBLOCKS in May 2024, starting with the LABUBU Forest Secret Base series, which enhances the storytelling aspect of its IPs [1] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart opened 26 new overseas stores in H1 2024, compared to 19 in H1 2023, with significant growth in the US and Southeast Asia [1] - The company opened 6 new stores in the US, including locations in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas [1] - In Southeast Asia, Pop Mart opened 2 new stores in Vietnam and 2 in Thailand, with the Bangkok LABUBU IP-themed store achieving a record-breaking RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic retail store revenue grew by 20%-25% YoY in Q1 2024, while robot store revenue increased by 15%-20% YoY [1] - Pop Mart's domestic market has shown resilience and strong alpha attributes compared to the broader market [1] New Business Initiatives - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" was released on June 27, 2024, and ranked first on the iOS China game download chart on its launch day [1] - The game, which combines simulation and party gameplay, has over 5 million pre-registrations and aims to deepen player engagement with Pop Mart's IPs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK$41.46, reflecting a 10% upside potential from the current price of HK$37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].