憶证券 轻工制造/文娱用品 公 司 研 究 产品场景化布局助力 IP 集团化推进，成长空间可期 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 2024 年 09 月 18 日 ——港股公司深度报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） | 骆扬（联系人） | | lvming@kysec.cn | zhoujiale@kysec.cn | luoyang@kysec.cn | | 证书编号： S0790520030002 | 证书编号： S0790522030002 | 证书编号： S0790122120029 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/9/17 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 49.250 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 49.500/16.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 56 2 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's 2024 H1 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 4 56 billion (+62 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 960 million (+102 0% YoY) [1] - Domestic market revenue grew 31 5% YoY to RMB 3 21 billion driven by strong performance across all channels [1] - Overseas markets saw explosive growth with revenue surging 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 35 billion accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Gross margin improved by 3 6 ppts to 64 0% due to supply chain optimization and higher contribution from high-margin overseas sales [1] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024 [1] Domestic Market Performance - Offline channels: Retail store revenue grew 24 7% YoY with 11 new stores opened and single-store sales up 13% [1] - Online channels: Revenue increased 34 0% YoY with strong growth in Douyin (+91%) and Tmall (+28%) [1] - Wholesale and other: Revenue surged 90 8% YoY driven by immersive IP experiences in theme parks [1] Overseas Market Expansion - Southeast Asia: Revenue grew 478% YoY with the LABUBU theme store in Bangkok achieving daily sales of RMB 10 million [1] - North America and Europe: Revenue increased 378% and 159% YoY respectively [1] - Offline channels: Retail store revenue surged 442% YoY with 13 new stores opened [1] - Online channels: Revenue grew 335% YoY led by strong performance on Lazada (+387 9%) and Shopee (+205 2%) [1] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 10 579 billion (+66 7%) RMB 13 855 billion (+31 0%) RMB 16 822 billion (+21 4%) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 2 152 billion (+98 9%) RMB 2 858 billion (+32 8%) RMB 3 537 billion (+23 7%) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: RMB 1 60 RMB 2 13 RMB 2 63 [1] Valuation - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 28X 21X 17X [1] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 6 1X 4 7X 3 7X [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in H1 2024, with total revenue reaching 4.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.1% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's overseas business is expanding rapidly, with revenue from regions including Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets growing by 259.6% to 1.351 billion yuan, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [2]. - The report forecasts continued growth, projecting revenues of 10.25 billion yuan, 11.58 billion yuan, and 12.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1.988 billion yuan, 2.306 billion yuan, and 2.583 billion yuan for the same years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Overview - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 64.0%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 22.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s inventory ratio was 10.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Domestic Channels - Revenue from online channels, retail stores, robots, and wholesale in mainland China reached 1.096 billion yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, 315 million yuan, and 324 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.0%, 24.7%, 16.2%, and 90.8% [1]. - The average revenue per retail store and robot store increased by 13.4% and 16.0% to 393.39 thousand yuan and 14.39 thousand yuan respectively [1]. International Channels - The company’s international revenue from online and offline channels saw substantial growth, with online sales increasing by 465.5% and retail store revenue by 441.5% [2]. - The company opened new stores in various international locations, including Bangkok, Los Angeles, and Oxford Street, increasing the number of overseas retail and robot stores to 92 and 162 respectively [2]. Product Performance - Key IPs such as MOLLY, THE MONSTERS, and SKULLPANDA generated revenues of 782 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 575 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.1%, 292.2%, and 9.2% [2]. - The high-end product category MEGA achieved revenue of 586 million yuan, while new IP Zsiga and Hirono saw revenue increases of 169.5% and 124.3% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue and profit showing substantial year-over-year growth [5] - Overseas revenue growth and domestic category expansion are key drivers of the company's performance [3][5] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, and cost control was effective [5] - The company's cash position increased, and operational conditions improved [5] - Overseas and Douyin (TikTok) channels contributed significantly to revenue growth [6][7] - The company has diversified its product categories, with blind box sales accounting for less than 60% of total revenue [9] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, expanding IP commercialization [10][11] Market Performance - The company's stock outperformed the Hang Seng Index significantly over the past 12 months, with a 104.1% increase compared to the Hang Seng Index's -1.3% [2] - The company's current stock price is HKD 47.75, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.90-48.25 [2] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 64,125.54 million, with a daily average trading volume of HKD 381.16 million [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue reached RMB 4.56 billion (YOY +62%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 920 million (YOY +93.3%) [4][5] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 1.02 billion (YOY +90.1%), with an adjusted profit margin of 22.3% (up 3.3 percentage points YoY) [5] - Gross margin increased to 64% (up 3.7 percentage points YoY) [5] - Cash on hand increased to RMB 7.01 billion (YOY +17.6%) [5] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 3.21 billion (YOY +31.5%), accounting for 70.3% of total revenue [3] - Overseas revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 1.35 billion (YOY +259.6%), accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [7] - Online revenue in 2024H1 grew by 34%, with Douyin channel revenue increasing by 90.7% [7] - Offline revenue in 2024H1 grew by 24.7% for stores and 16.2% for robots [3] Product and IP Performance - 7 IPs generated over RMB 100 million in revenue in 2024H1, with MOLLY revenue increasing by 90.1% [9] - Blind box and figurine revenue accounted for 58.3% of total revenue, down 14.2 percentage points YoY [9] - MEGA, plush, and derivative products saw significant revenue growth, with plush revenue increasing by 993.6% [9] - The company launched new product categories such as cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE [9] Expansion and Future Plans - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in the second half of 2024 [7] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, with the launch of its first mobile game "Dream Home" in June 2024 [10][11] - The company is expanding its IP commercialization through collaborations and pop-up stores [10][11] Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10.20 billion in 2024, RMB 13.09 billion in 2025, and RMB 15.48 billion in 2026 [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.06 billion in 2024, RMB 2.66 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.18 billion in 2026 [12] - The company's adjusted PE ratio is expected to be 26X in 2024, 20X in 2025, and 17X in 2026 [12]

Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report [3] Core Views - Pop Mart achieved a 62% YoY revenue growth in H1 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 93.3% YoY [1] - The company raised its full-year growth guidance, expecting revenue growth of at least 60% (up from 30%) and overseas revenue growth of at least 200% (up from 100%) [2][10][11] - Overseas expansion and new IP product launches are expected to drive further growth [1][10] Revenue Breakdown Overall Revenue - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 4.558 billion, a 62% YoY increase [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 921 million, up 93.3% YoY [6] Regional Revenue Mainland China - Revenue grew 31.5% YoY to RMB 3.206 billion [1][6] - Offline channels contributed 39.2% of revenue, with retail stores and robot stores generating RMB 1.471 billion and RMB 315 million, respectively, up 24.7% and 16.2% YoY [1][7] - Online channels accounted for 24.0% of revenue, with key platforms like Tmall and Douyin showing strong growth [1][7] - Wholesale and other channels grew 90.8% YoY to RMB 324 million, driven by Pop Mart City Park [1][7] Overseas Markets - Revenue surged 259.6% YoY to RMB 1.351 billion [1][6] - Offline channels grew 397.3% YoY, contributing 20.8% of revenue, with retail stores and robot stores generating RMB 894 million and RMB 53 million, respectively [2][7] - Online channels grew 335.4% YoY to RMB 247 million, with platforms like Lazada and Shopee showing strong performance [2][7] - Southeast Asia contributed 41.1% of overseas revenue, followed by East Asia and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan at 35.4% [6] IP Performance - Artist IP contributed 81% of revenue, generating RMB 3.69 billion in H1 2024, up 70.4% YoY [8] - Top IPs: MOLLY (RMB 782 million, 17.2% of revenue), THE MONSTERS (RMB 627 million, 13.7%), and SKULLPANDA (RMB 575 million, 12.6%) [8] - MOLLY revenue grew 90.1% YoY, THE MONSTERS surged 292.2%, and SKULLPANDA increased 9.2% [8] Product Categories - Handicrafts (blind boxes) accounted for 58.3% of revenue, growing 30.2% YoY [9] - MEGA products grew 141.9% YoY, contributing 12.9% of revenue [9] - Plush toys and derivatives grew 993.6% and 77.5% YoY, respectively [9] Profitability - Gross margin improved to 64.0%, up 3.6pp YoY, driven by cost control, supplier bargaining power, and higher overseas sales [2][9] - Net profit margin rose 3.2pp to 20.3% [2][9] Expansion Plans - Pop Mart plans to open 30-40 new stores in Southeast Asia and North America in H2 2024 [10] - The company aims to enhance online channel penetration and collaborate with KOLs to boost IP visibility [10] - Supply chain management will be strengthened to support global operations [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][8][11] Core Views - The company's revenue grew by 62% year-on-year to 4.56 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with net profit increasing by 93% to 920 million yuan, driven by improved supply chain management and the scale effect of overseas business [4][8] - The company has successfully expanded its product categories, with the proportion of figurines decreasing to below 60%, enhancing fan engagement with its IPs [7][8] - Significant growth was observed in Southeast Asia and North America, with plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in the second half of the year [8] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 2.11 billion, 2.56 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 94.7%, 21.6%, and 14.3% [8][9] - The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 66.9%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, and finance have improved [5][6][8] IP Performance - Established IPs such as MOLLY, THE MONSTERS, and SKULLPANDA saw significant revenue growth, with THE MONSTERS performing particularly well in Thailand [6][8] - New IPs under PDC also showed strong performance, with revenues for Hirono, Zsiga, and HACIPUPU increasing by 124.3%, 169.5%, and 37.3% respectively [6][8] Market Expansion - The company reported remarkable revenue growth in various regions, with Southeast Asia seeing a 478.3% increase, and plans to continue expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 4.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and adjusted net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, up 90.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The growth in classic IP revenue is attributed to the strong commercialization potential of IP and the company's deeper understanding of IP operations. Classic IP Molly and The Monsters saw revenue growth of 90% and 292% respectively, contributing significantly to overall revenue [3] - The company has demonstrated strong growth in mainland China, with revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year, and a notable increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.213 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60.96% [2] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.302 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 93.40% year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 64% in the first half of 2024, benefiting from supply chain optimization and increased overseas sales [8] Market Expansion - The company has seen significant overseas growth, with revenue increasing by 260% to 1.35 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and expects over 200% growth for the full year [4][8] - The company plans to open 30-40 new stores in high-potential regions such as North America and Southeast Asia in the second half of 2024 [8] IP Development - The company has successfully diversified its IP portfolio, with seven IPs generating over 100 million yuan in sales, compared to five in the same period last year [3] - Non-figurine categories have shown remarkable growth, with plush toy sales increasing by 994% to 446 million yuan, marking a shift in product focus [3]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 泡泡玛特（9992.HK） 泡泡玛特（9992.HK）：优秀的 IP 运营能力再 次得到验证，海外扩张将驱动持续高速增长 泡泡玛特 1H24 净利润同比增长 102%，收入同比增长 62%，都高于公 司盈喜公布的预期。中国大陆收入同比大幅增长 32%，充分体现了泡泡 玛特的潮玩产品具有的强逆周期特性。海外收入同比增长 260%，归功 于公司成熟的出海模型和公司潮玩 IP 巨大的出海潜力。基于公司不断 提升的 IP 运营能力以及海外扩张能力，我们坚信泡泡玛特未来的增长 具有很强的确定性与可持续性。维持"买入"评级，泡泡玛特目前是我 们在可选消费行业的首选。 管理层 2H24 指引较为乐观：管理层表示公司有信心 2024 全年收入增 长不低于 60%，海外收入增速不低于 200%。管理层乐观的指引也说明 了公司 1H24 强劲增长的态势在 2H24 仍旧维持。利润率方面，管理层 表示 2H24 毛利率同比将继续扩张，并预计 2024 全年毛利率同比扩张 3.0ppt。尽管管理层表示未来毛利率将稳定在 2024 年的水平，但我们 判断海外业务收入占比的持续增 ...

研究报告 Research Report 21 Aug 2024 泡泡玛特 Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 点评报告：收入利润超预期，国内海外双开花 Review Report: Surpassing Profit and Revenue, Milestones Globally and Domestically [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | HK$41.85 | | 目标价 | HK$48.90 | | HTI ESG | 2.0-3.0-4.0 | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) | --- | --- | |----- ...

[Table_Author] [Table_OtherReport] 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 深度报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 泡泡玛特(9992.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 | --- | --- | |------------|----------------------| | 执业编号： | S1500523060001 | | 联系电话： | 13921189535 | | 邮 箱： | caixinyu@cindasc.com | [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 8 月 21 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 24H1 业绩，实现收入 45.58 亿元，同增 62%，经调整净 利润 10.18 亿元，同增 90.1%，经调整后净利率 22.3%，同比提升 3.3PCT。 头部 IP 矩阵再扩容，丰富品类组合&爆品打造彰显 IP 深度延展能力。24H1 共有7个IP实现收入超亿元，经典IP再创佳绩，MOLLY、THE MONSTERS、 SKULLPANDA 于 24H1 分别实现收入 7.82/6.27/ ...