Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 40%-45% for Q1 2024, with domestic revenue increasing by 20%-25% and overseas revenue soaring by 245%-250% [3] - The company continues to launch successful new products under its key IPs, with strong sales performance expected from upcoming innovative products [3] - Domestic revenue growth remains robust, driven by strong performance in offline retail and a recovery in online channels [3] - The overseas market is experiencing rapid growth, with new store openings in countries like Thailand, Australia, and France, and several IPs gaining popularity in the U.S. and Thailand [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,344 million RMB in 2023 to 11,382 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.07% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,082.34 million RMB in 2023 to 2,190.38 million RMB in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.06 RMB for 2024, 1.38 RMB for 2025, and 1.63 RMB for 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 29.08 to 18.96 over the same period [2][4]

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 泡泡玛特(9992.HK)24Q1 经营数据点评： 公司研究 24Q1 收入超预期，IP 联名&扩圈，海外市场 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 高增长 [T泡ab泡le玛_S特toc(k9A9n9d2R.anHkK]) [Table_ReportDate] 2024年4月23日 投资评级 上次评级 [T 事ab 件le ：_S 公u 司mm 披ar 露y] 24Q1未经审核经营数据，收入同增40-45%，其中中国大 陆同增20-25%，中国港澳台及海外同增245-250%、表现超预期。 [T刘ab嘉le仁_A u社th零or&]美 护首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110002 点评： 联系电话：15000310173 邮 箱：liujiaren@cindasc.com 我们预计线下同店表现亮眼。24Q1中国大陆零售店、机器人店分别同增20- 25%、15-20%，2023 年开始开店速度放缓但同店表现持续亮眼，2023 年 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 线下零售门店收入同增 46.6%，其中同店同增 25%，店均收入超 21 年水 执业编号：S150 ...

本次对话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者官邻机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准会议严禁录音或转发 任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资时谨慎 各位投资者晚上好,欢迎参加我们今天的电话会。我是国海传媒的手游分析师姚磊,今天主讲的还有我们团队的搭档方博云。我们今天的主题是泡玛特的推荐逻辑重申。 然后是那个IP加品类加全球化,因为泡玛特的话它其实是在2020年12月份上市的,然后我们团队的话呢是在2020年的6月份就是首次发布了那个泡玛特的一个深度报告,然后我们跟踪泡玛特的话也已经是将近有四年的一个时间了。 在这四年 ...

本次对话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而释其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议据此做出的任何投资决策与国海证券国海证券员工或者关联机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准会议严禁录音或转发 任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资者晚上好欢迎参加我们今天的电话会我是国海传媒的手游分析师姚磊今天主讲的还有我们团队的搭档方博云我们今天的主题是泡玛特的推荐逻辑重申 然后是那个IP加品类加全球化因为泡玛特的话它其实是在2020年12月份上市的然后我们团队的话呢是在2020年的6月份就是首次发布了那个泡玛特的一个深度 我们跟踪泡玛特已经将近四年的时间了在这四年当中对她上市到现在的业务的变化包括股价的 ...

[Table_Title] 净利润翻倍增长，验证 IP 运营开发核心竞争力不断 提升 [Table_ReportDate] 泡泡玛特（9992.HK）公司简评报告 | 2024.04.12 [评Ta级ble：_R 买ank入] 核心观点 [ Table_Authors] [Tabl e_Summary] 王建会 ⚫ 事件：公司披露 2023年业绩，2023 年，公司实现总营收 63.01 亿元， 传媒互联网首席分析师 同比增长36.5%；实现净利润10.88亿元，同比增长128.8%；经调整净 SAC执证编号：S0110522050001 利润11.91亿元，同比增长107.6%。 wangjianhui2@sczq.com.cn ⚫ 渠道和区域角度，店效驱动线下高速恢复，抖音渠道持续高增，海外市 李甜露 场翻倍增长。 传媒互联网联席首席分析师 SAC执证编号：S0110516090001 2023年，线下出游火爆带动线下商业快速恢复，公司零售店和机器人商 litianlu@sczq.com.cn 店收入分别同比增长46.6%和44.8%，尤其是考虑到公司在内地新开店 电话：86-10-8115 2690 铺 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][2][11] Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5%, primarily driven by the recovery of domestic offline stores and rapid growth in overseas business [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.08 billion yuan, a significant increase of 127.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 60.4% and 16.9%, respectively, with a decrease in overall expense ratio by 5.4 percentage points to 40.4% [5][11] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) was 5.24 billion yuan, up 25.7% year-on-year, with offline channel revenue growing by 46.3% to 3.03 billion yuan [11][5] - Overseas revenue reached 1.07 billion yuan, marking a 134.9% increase, driven by the expansion of overseas retail stores [11][5] IP Performance - The company's top IPs, including SKULLPANDA and MOLLY, generated revenues of 1.02 billion yuan each, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.3% and 27.2%, respectively [11][5] - The Pop Design Center (PDC) team has successfully developed four IPs with sales exceeding 100 million yuan, with the IP "小野" achieving a revenue of 350 million yuan, up 149.5% year-on-year [11][5] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.29 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 44%, 23%, and 19% respectively [2][11] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 1.16, 1.43, and 1.70 yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 17, and 14 times [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and potential [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.3 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.19 billion CNY, doubling from the previous year [2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its IP operational capabilities and monetization potential, with projected revenues of 8.18 billion CNY and 10.27 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 29.8% and 25.6% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 6.3 billion CNY, with mainland China contributing 5.23 billion CNY (up 25.7%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions contributing 1.07 billion CNY (up 134.9%) [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was 1.19 billion CNY, a 107.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 61.3% (up 3.8 percentage points) and a net margin of 18.9% (up 6.5 percentage points) [2]. Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its international market expansion, achieving a revenue of 1.066 billion CNY from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions in 2023, exceeding its previous guidance of 1 billion CNY [2]. - The overseas offline channels generated 640 million CNY in revenue, a 324.7% increase, with retail stores and robot stores contributing significantly [2]. IP Development - The company has expanded its IP matrix, with 10 IPs achieving over 100 million CNY in sales, including notable IPs like Skullpanda and Molly [2]. - The company is diversifying its IP monetization channels and has restructured its business into four segments: IP incubation and operation, trendy toys and retail, theme parks and experiences, and digital entertainment [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HK$27.39, indicating a potential downside of 4% from the current price of HK$28.65 [1][2][14]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in 2023, with revenue and adjusted net profit exceeding expectations by 36.5% and 106.3% respectively, driven by initial success in overseas markets and recovering domestic demand [4][5]. - Future growth is expected to heavily rely on overseas market expansion, while domestic growth may slow down [4][5]. - The target price has been raised to HK$27.39, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.4 times for 2024, up from a previous target of HK$20.30 [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 6,301 million, a 36.5% increase from 2022, with adjusted net profit at RMB 1,183 million, a 106.3% increase [6][12]. - The company expects total revenue to grow to RMB 8,027 million in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 27.4% [6][13]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 1.06, reflecting a 22.3% increase from the previous estimate [6][13]. Market Performance - The company has achieved significant growth in overseas markets, with revenue exceeding RMB 1 billion in 2023, marking over 100% growth [5][8]. - The number of retail and robot stores has expanded significantly, contributing to increased sales [5][8]. - The management has set a target for overseas revenue growth of 100% in 2024, aiming for overall revenue growth of 30% [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 24.5 for 2024 and 20.5 for 2025, with an expected adjusted EPS growth of 20.5% and 19.3% for the respective years [4][14]. - The report indicates that the current valuation reflects a reasonable risk-reward profile, considering the uncertainties associated with international expansion and competition [4][14].

2024 年 03 月 24 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 海外与抖音收入猛增，净利润翻倍 证券分析师： 姚蕾 S0350521080006 yaol02@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 ——泡泡玛特（ ） 年业绩点评 9992.HK 2023 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 3 月 20 日，泡泡玛特公告 2023 年业绩，2023 年公司收入 63.0 亿元 （YOY+36.5%），经调整净利润11.9亿元（YOY+107.6%），归母净 利润10.8亿元（YOY+127.5%）。2023年每股派息人民币28.2分，合 计3.79亿元，股利支付率35%。 投资要点 :  海外与抖音渠道收入猛增。 相对恒生指数表现 2024/03/22 （1） 2023年公司收入YOY+36.5%，其中大陆区域YOY+35.6%，海 表现 1M 3M 12M 外区域收入10.7亿元，首次突破10亿元（YOY+134.9%），占比自2022 泡泡玛特 43.7% 43.6% 41.0% 年的9.8%提升至 ...

研究报告Research Report 21 Mar 2024 泡泡玛特 Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 点评报告：收入利润新高，分红彰显信心 Review Report: Revenue and Profit Hitting New Record, Dividend Showing Strong Confidence [观Ta点ble聚_y焦em Ieniv1e]s tment Focus [Tab维le_持Info优] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：泡泡玛特发布 2023 年业绩。23 年收入 63.0 亿元，同比增 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 长 36.5%；毛利率 61.3%，同比提升 3.8pct；经调净利 11.9亿元， 现价 HK$24.70 同比增长 108%，经调净利率18.9%。公司指引 24年公司收入同比 目标价 HK$32.80 增长超30%，其中海外业务收入超100%。 HTI ESG 2.0-3.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, ...