房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 30 日 600048.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 8.33 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (4.0) (1.4) 0.1 (10.2) 相对上证综指 (4.8) 0.5 (1.0) (15.8) | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | --- | 24 年营收业绩承压； 25Q1 毛利率较 24 年回升；销售稳 居行业第一 摘要：保利发展公布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 3116.7 亿元，同比 下降 10.2%；归母净利润 50.0 亿元，同比下降 58.6%。2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入 542.7 亿元，同比 增长 9.1%；归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比下降 12.3%。公司延迟审议 2024 年利润分配方案。 投资建议与盈利预测： 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《保利发展：业绩与经营性现金流短期承压；销售稳 居行业第一》20240827 《 ...

公司研究丨点评报告丨保利发展（600048.SH） [Table_Title] 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间 ——保利发展 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] Q1 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间。周期压力已在后端业绩有所兑现，再次大幅下行压力 不大。投资边际转积极，重视库存去化与存量盘活，资产质量逐渐优化。可转债提升资金实力， 重视股东回报与市值管理。行业格局优化则为长期确定性逻辑，央企龙头仍存估值提升空间。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 刘义 袁佳楠 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490520070001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 保利发展（600048.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间 2] ——保利发展 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank]投资评级 买入丨维持 ...

在政策强力提振之下，房地产市场在2024年踏上了止跌回稳之路。国家统计局数据显示，去年第四季度 全国成交同环比显著改善，且一线及核心二线城市回升更快，市场修复态势明显。 作为行业龙头，央企保利发展（600048.SH）始终把平稳发展摆在首要位置，提前预判、快速应变、精 准施策，牢牢把握每个窗口和机遇，在行业整体深度调整期也交出一份韧性十足的高质量答卷。 最新发布的2024年业绩报告显示，保利发展全年实现签约面积1796.61万平方米，签约金额3230亿元， 连续两年稳居行业第一；全年营业收入3116.7亿元，净利润97.4亿元、归母净利润50亿元；全年回笼资 金3277亿元，回笼率达101%，同比提升1.3个百分点。同时，债务结构持续优化，经营性现金流连续七 年为正，产品力持续跃升行业前列。 2025年，推动市场止跌回稳仍是房地产行业的核心主题。在29日举行的业绩发布会上，保利发展董事长 刘平指出，中长期看房地产仍然是规模大、影响广的重要行业。当前消费者的住房需求，已从单纯居住 转向"好房子"带来的更高品质生活体验，是行业下阶段平稳发展的坚实基础。 站在行业转型升级的关键节点上，刘平对房地产业表达了充分的信心 ...

房地产行业 持有（维持） 保利发展（600048）2024 年年报点评 行业周期性下行导致业绩承压，龙头地位仍稳固 2025 年 4 月 30 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 公 司 点 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 分析师：何敏仪 SAC 执业证书编号： | | | --- | --- | | S0340513040001 | | | 电话：0769-22177163 | 公 | | 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 司 研 | | 主要数据 2025 年 4 | 究 月 29 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 8.33 | | 总市值（亿元） | 997.14 | | 总股本(百万股) | 11970.44 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 11970.44 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.23 | | 12 月最高价(元) | 9.32 | | 12 月最低价(元) 7. ...

事件：公司公布2024 年年度及2025Q1 业绩报告，2024 年公司实现营收3116.7亿元（yoy-10.1%）；实 现归母净利润50.0 亿元（yoy-58.6%）。2025Q1 公司实现营收542.7 亿元（yoy+9.1%）；实现归母净利 19.5 亿元（yoy-12.27%）。 风险提示：房地产市场持续低迷；政策落地不及预期；可转债发行不及预期。 紧抓销售回款，积极盘活资金，融资成本持续下降。资金方面：2024 年公司实现销售回笼3277 亿元， 签约回笼率超过100%。此外公司积极采取多种方式盘活受限资金约475 亿，例如通过加速参股项目投 资回收、多种方式盘活预售监管资金、加快退税等，累计增加可动用资金313 亿元。同时，通过存量土 地收储、应收账款盘活、投资占压盘活等多种方式累计增加可动用资金162 亿元。 负债及融资方面：截至2024 年底，公司有息负债规模压降54 亿元至3488 亿元，连续两年实现债务规模 压降；年内公司新增有息负债综合成本同比下降22BP 至2.92%，有息负债综合融资成本同比下降46BP 至3.1%，均创历史新低。 2025Q1 销售实现正增，新拓项目均位于核心城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to reduced project turnover, with total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, down 10.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, achieving a sales contract amount of 323.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year, while maintaining a market share of 7.1% in 38 core cities [2][4] - The company's debt structure has improved, with interest-bearing liabilities reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, and a cash balance of 134.2 billion yuan, indicating a strong liquidity position [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 10.14% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decline in project turnover [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.00 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 58.56% year-on-year, largely due to impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][6] Sales Performance - The company achieved a signed area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, but still led the industry in sales amount [2] - The sales amount for the year was 323.03 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in the industry for two consecutive years [2] Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, marking two consecutive years of debt reduction [3] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3%, achieving a four-year consecutive decline [3] Land Acquisition and Development - The company expanded its land acquisition with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan in 2024, focusing 99% of its investment in 38 core cities [4] - The land reserve as of the end of 2024 was approximately 62.58 million square meters, with a 20% reduction in existing project area compared to the beginning of the year [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.31 billion yuan, 327.93 billion yuan, and 337.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 2.7%, and 3.1% [4][6]

2024年，中国房地产行业在政策"组合拳"与市场分化中延续止跌回稳态势。 国家统计局数据显示，去年全年商品房销售面积与金额同比分别下降12.9%和17.1%，但四季度市场在 政策刺激下显著回暖，一线城市成交同比增长40%，核心城市结构性优势凸显。 在行业深度调整期，保利发展以"稳经营、调结构、化风险、促发展"为核心战略，交出了一份逆势增长 的成绩单：全年签约金额3230亿元稳居行业首位，经营性现金流连续七年为正，债务结构持续优化，产 品力跃升行业第二，展现出央企龙头的抗周期韧性与战略前瞻性。战略定力筑牢安全底线 在行业流动性风险蔓延的背景下，保利发展凭借央企信用优势与主动管理能力，构建起"融资成本低、 现金流稳、债务结构优"的护城河。 这份稳健的财务"安全垫"，源于其对债务结构的精细化调整与融资策略的前瞻性布局。 2024年，保利发展主动压降有息负债54亿元，存量有息负债综合成本降至2.92%，较上年下降22个基 点。全年新增融资中，公司债利率低至2.20%，中期票据利率2.30%，均创同期最低水平。 如果说债务结构的优化是筑牢财务安全的基石，那么现金流的稳健管理则是保利发展穿越周期波动的核 心动能。 在行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure from settlement results, but there are marginal improvements in sales and investment [6] - The company achieved a total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [6][7] - The company plans to invest 201 billion yuan in real estate and related industries in 2025, with new construction and completion areas expected to be 8 million square meters and 25.4 million square meters, respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 280.5 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 14.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [5][6] - The company reported a cash recovery of 327.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a cash recovery rate exceeding 100% [6] Sales and Investment Performance - In 2024, the company maintained its position as the industry leader with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, despite a year-on-year decline of 24.7% [6] - The company’s land acquisition amount in 2024 was 68.3 billion yuan, down 58% year-on-year, with a land acquisition area of 3.29 million square meters [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales area of 3.08 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, but the land acquisition amount increased significantly by 260% to 18 billion yuan [6] Financial Health - The company’s debt levels are stable, with a net debt ratio of 63% and an asset-liability ratio of 65% as of Q1 2025 [6] - The comprehensive financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down 46 basis points year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company maintains its leading position in the real estate industry and is actively expanding its presence in core cities [8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 311.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [8] - The company has achieved the highest sales volume in the industry for two consecutive years, with a sales area of 17.966 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year [8] - The company has optimized its land reserve structure, acquiring 3.29 million square meters of land in 2024, with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan [8] - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 346.89 billion yuan, with a projected decline in revenue for the following years [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 7.48 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.62 yuan by 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19.89 in 2024, decreasing to 13.30 by 2027 [1]

在深度调整的行业浪潮中，中国房地产市场正经历前所未有的结构性变革。消费者从盲目追涨转向理性 置业，产品创新也从单一规模导向转向精细化人居需求适配。这场变革既是挑战，更是行业洗牌的关键 节点——唯有提前洞察趋势、主动拥抱转型的房企，方能在市场震荡中走出独立行情。 作为长期主义的践行者，2024年保利发展紧紧围绕"稳经营、调结构、化风险、促发展"中心任务，提前 预判、快速应变、精准施策，在逆势中奋勇前行，成为行业内为数不多仍保持盈利的企业之一。 财报显示，2024年保利发展实现营业收入3116.7亿元；实现净利润97.4亿元；归母净利润50亿元。此 外，公司销售业绩连续两年位居行业第一、经营性现金流连续7年为正。一系列亮眼业绩的背后，是保 利发展敏锐捕捉市场趋势、精准调整经营策略的成果。 业内人士指出，在行业整体利润空间遭到挤压的背景下，保利发展展现出强大的韧性。这不仅体现了保 利发展在市场逆境中的卓越经营能力，更为行业提供了宝贵的借鉴样本：即使在艰难市场环境下，企业 仍可通过积极策略调整实现稳健发展。 产品破局立新章 规模市占双优领跑 业绩是反映企业发展状况和经营成果的一个关键性指标。保利发展盈利指标的达成离不 ...