房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 30 日 600048.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 8.33 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (4.0) (1.4) 0.1 (10.2) 相对上证综指 (4.8) 0.5 (1.0) (15.8) | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | --- | 24 年营收业绩承压； 25Q1 毛利率较 24 年回升；销售稳 居行业第一 摘要：保利发展公布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 3116.7 亿元，同比 下降 10.2%；归母净利润 50.0 亿元，同比下降 58.6%。2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入 542.7 亿元，同比 增长 9.1%；归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比下降 12.3%。公司延迟审议 2024 年利润分配方案。 投资建议与盈利预测： 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《保利发展：业绩与经营性现金流短期承压；销售稳 居行业第一》20240827 《 ...

公司研究丨点评报告丨保利发展（600048.SH） [Table_Title] 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间 ——保利发展 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] Q1 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间。周期压力已在后端业绩有所兑现，再次大幅下行压力 不大。投资边际转积极，重视库存去化与存量盘活，资产质量逐渐优化。可转债提升资金实力， 重视股东回报与市值管理。行业格局优化则为长期确定性逻辑，央企龙头仍存估值提升空间。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 刘义 袁佳楠 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490520070001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 保利发展（600048.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 投资边际转积极，估值仍存修复空间 2] ——保利发展 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank]投资评级 买入丨维持 ...

在政策强力提振之下，房地产市场在2024年踏上了止跌回稳之路。国家统计局数据显示，去年第四季度 全国成交同环比显著改善，且一线及核心二线城市回升更快，市场修复态势明显。 作为行业龙头，央企保利发展（600048.SH）始终把平稳发展摆在首要位置，提前预判、快速应变、精 准施策，牢牢把握每个窗口和机遇，在行业整体深度调整期也交出一份韧性十足的高质量答卷。 最新发布的2024年业绩报告显示，保利发展全年实现签约面积1796.61万平方米，签约金额3230亿元， 连续两年稳居行业第一；全年营业收入3116.7亿元，净利润97.4亿元、归母净利润50亿元；全年回笼资 金3277亿元，回笼率达101%，同比提升1.3个百分点。同时，债务结构持续优化，经营性现金流连续七 年为正，产品力持续跃升行业前列。 2025年，推动市场止跌回稳仍是房地产行业的核心主题。在29日举行的业绩发布会上，保利发展董事长 刘平指出，中长期看房地产仍然是规模大、影响广的重要行业。当前消费者的住房需求，已从单纯居住 转向"好房子"带来的更高品质生活体验，是行业下阶段平稳发展的坚实基础。 站在行业转型升级的关键节点上，刘平对房地产业表达了充分的信心 ...

房地产行业 持有（维持） 保利发展（600048）2024 年年报点评 行业周期性下行导致业绩承压，龙头地位仍稳固 2025 年 4 月 30 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 公 司 点 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 分析师：何敏仪 SAC 执业证书编号： | | | --- | --- | | S0340513040001 | | | 电话：0769-22177163 | 公 | | 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 司 研 | | 主要数据 2025 年 4 | 究 月 29 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 8.33 | | 总市值（亿元） | 997.14 | | 总股本(百万股) | 11970.44 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 11970.44 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.23 | | 12 月最高价(元) | 9.32 | | 12 月最低价(元) 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to reduced project turnover, with total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, down 10.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, achieving a sales contract amount of 323.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year, while maintaining a market share of 7.1% in 38 core cities [2][4] - The company's debt structure has improved, with interest-bearing liabilities reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, and a cash balance of 134.2 billion yuan, indicating a strong liquidity position [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 10.14% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decline in project turnover [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.00 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 58.56% year-on-year, largely due to impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][6] Sales Performance - The company achieved a signed area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, but still led the industry in sales amount [2] - The sales amount for the year was 323.03 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in the industry for two consecutive years [2] Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, marking two consecutive years of debt reduction [3] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3%, achieving a four-year consecutive decline [3] Land Acquisition and Development - The company expanded its land acquisition with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan in 2024, focusing 99% of its investment in 38 core cities [4] - The land reserve as of the end of 2024 was approximately 62.58 million square meters, with a 20% reduction in existing project area compared to the beginning of the year [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.31 billion yuan, 327.93 billion yuan, and 337.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 2.7%, and 3.1% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure from settlement results, but there are marginal improvements in sales and investment [6] - The company achieved a total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [6][7] - The company plans to invest 201 billion yuan in real estate and related industries in 2025, with new construction and completion areas expected to be 8 million square meters and 25.4 million square meters, respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 280.5 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 14.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [5][6] - The company reported a cash recovery of 327.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a cash recovery rate exceeding 100% [6] Sales and Investment Performance - In 2024, the company maintained its position as the industry leader with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, despite a year-on-year decline of 24.7% [6] - The company’s land acquisition amount in 2024 was 68.3 billion yuan, down 58% year-on-year, with a land acquisition area of 3.29 million square meters [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales area of 3.08 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, but the land acquisition amount increased significantly by 260% to 18 billion yuan [6] Financial Health - The company’s debt levels are stable, with a net debt ratio of 63% and an asset-liability ratio of 65% as of Q1 2025 [6] - The comprehensive financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down 46 basis points year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company maintains its leading position in the real estate industry and is actively expanding its presence in core cities [8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 311.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [8] - The company has achieved the highest sales volume in the industry for two consecutive years, with a sales area of 17.966 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year [8] - The company has optimized its land reserve structure, acquiring 3.29 million square meters of land in 2024, with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan [8] - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 346.89 billion yuan, with a projected decline in revenue for the following years [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 7.48 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.62 yuan by 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19.89 in 2024, decreasing to 13.30 by 2027 [1]

Group 1: Poly Developments - Poly Developments reported a net profit of 5 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 58.6% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan in 2024, down 10% from the previous year [2] - The gross profit margin for settlements was 14%, a decline of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The company signed a total area of 17.9661 million square meters, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year, while sales contracts amounted to 323.029 billion yuan, down 23.5% [2] - The company maintained a cash balance of 134.2 billion yuan at the end of the year, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.257 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Mindray Medical - Mindray Medical reported a revenue of 36.726 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 5.14% year-on-year [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.668 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.74% compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was not disclosed in the provided data [6] Group 3: Unisplendour - Unisplendour announced plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9] - The company achieved a revenue of 79.024 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 2.22% year-on-year [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.572 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.23% compared to the previous year [10] Group 4: SF Holding - SF Holding reported a revenue of 69.849 billion yuan for the first quarter, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year [17][18] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.9% compared to the same period last year [17][18] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth between 500 million and 1 billion yuan [17] Group 5: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 10.445 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 2.91% year-on-year [20][21] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.710 billion yuan, an increase of 7.08% compared to the previous year [20][21] Group 6: China State Construction - China State Construction reported a revenue of 555.3 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 1.1% year-on-year [23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.6% compared to the same period last year [23] Group 7: WuXi AppTec - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 9.655 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 20.96% year-on-year [24] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.672 billion yuan, a significant increase of 89.06% compared to the previous year [24] Group 8: China Nuclear Power - China Nuclear Power reported a revenue of 20.273 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 12.7% year-on-year [25] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.55% compared to the same period last year [25] Group 9: Haitian Flavoring - Haitian Flavoring reported a revenue of 8.315 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 8.08% year-on-year [26] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.202 billion yuan, an increase of 14.77% compared to the previous year [26] Group 10: Yunnan Baiyao - Yunnan Baiyao reported a revenue of 10.841 billion yuan for the first quarter, a growth of 0.62% year-on-year [27] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.935 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.67% compared to the same period last year [27]

保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2024 年度董事会独立董事述职报告 作为保利发展控股集团股份有限公司(以下简称"保利发展"或 "公司")第七届董事会独立董事，本人在2024年的工作中严格按照 相关规定，认真、忠实、勤勉地履行工作职责，全面了解公司经营运 作情况，客观、独立和公正地参与公司决策，充分发挥专业优势积极 促进公司规范运作和持续健康发展，切实维护公司利益和全体股东尤 其是中小股东的合法权益。现将履职情况报告如下： 一、独立董事基本情况 作为公司独立董事，本人具有履行独立董事职责所必需的专业能 力和工作经验，具备法律法规所要求的独立性，并在履职中保持客观、 独立的专业判断，不存在影响独立性的情况。本人个人工作履历、专 业背景以及任职情况如下： 戴德明，男，1962年出生，中国国籍，会计学博士。现任中国人 民大学商学院会计系教授、博士生导师，于2024年11月4日离任本公 司独立董事。 二、独立董事年度履职概况 （一）出席董事会和股东大会会议的情况 | 本年应 | | 以通讯 | | | | 是否连续 | 出席股 | 出席独 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2024 年度董事会独立董事述职报告 作为保利发展控股集团股份有限公司(以下简称"保利发展"或 "公司")第七届董事会独立董事，本人在2024年的工作中严格按照 相关规定，认真、忠实、勤勉地履行工作职责，全面了解公司经营运 作情况，客观、独立和公正地参与公司决策，充分发挥专业优势积极 促进公司规范运作和持续健康发展，切实维护公司利益和全体股东尤 其是中小股东的合法权益。现将履职情况报告如下： 一、独立董事基本情况 作为公司独立董事，本人具有履行独立董事职责所必需的专业能 力和工作经验，具备法律法规所要求的独立性，并在履职中保持客观、 独立的专业判断，不存在影响独立性的情况。本人个人工作履历、专 业背景以及任职情况如下： 李非，男，1956年出生，中国国籍，经济管理学博士。曾任中山 大学管理学院教授、博士生导师，于2024年11月4日离任本公司独立 董事。 报告期内，公司共召开股东大会6次、董事会14次。本人任职期 间通过现场、视频和传真表决方式出席股东大会5次、董事会10次。 本人认真审阅议案及相关资料，与经营层进行询问沟通，针对公司年 度投资计划、房地产项目备案、资本市场融资、 ...