2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 交易信心有所提振，后市仍将震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251215 要点 本周市场核心观点与市场复盘： 本周（2025.12.08-2025.12.12，下同）A 股震荡上行，市场量能有所提振。截 至周五（2025.12.12，下同），主要宽基指数量能择时指标均转为看多信号。沪 深 300、中证 500 指数时序波动率、横截面波动率均有提升，Alpha 环境好转。 资金面方面，融资增加额环比提升，资金交易情绪积极。 12 月中央经济工作会议进一步提振市场信心，资金面叠加情绪指标改善下，市 场或进一步震荡上行。风格方面，本周市场大市值风格显著、基本面因子表现相 对占优，市场或逐步实现资金面驱动向基本面驱动的过渡。中长线持续看好"红 利+科技"配置主线。 本周上证综指下跌 0.34%，上证 50 下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，中证 500 上涨 1.01%，中证 1000 上涨 0.39%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，北证 50 指数 上涨 2.79%。 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to present new investment opportunities as market styles shift, with a high probability of a resurgence in bank stocks in Q4 2025, particularly favoring quality regional banks and high-dividend large banks [1][2][5] Market Style Shift - The current market exhibits a "technology strong, weight weak" seesaw effect, with the technology sector showing significant volatility and growth, while the banking sector has lagged behind, indicating a potential for recovery [8][10] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio remains at historical lows of 0.6-0.8, contrasting with the high valuations of the technology sector [1][8] Policy Environment - The banking sector benefits from favorable policies, including a significant reduction in deposit rates, which lowers banks' funding costs and supports their interest margins [2][24] - As of September 30, 2025, the dividend yield for bank stocks reached 4.40%, significantly higher than the 2.79% yield of the CSI 300 index, indicating a strong income advantage for investors [2][24] Funding Environment - There is a structural shift in funding flows, with increased allocation of risk-averse and long-term funds towards bank stocks, enhancing their funding advantages [2][26] - The asset quality of banks is steadily improving, with non-performing loan ratios decreasing from 1.59% to 1.49% between Q1 2024 and Q2 2025, and the provision coverage ratio increasing from 204.54% to 211.97% [2][29] Performance Analysis - The banking sector has shown strong performance from the end of 2024 to mid-2025, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 13.10% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the broader market [16][19] - Quality regional banks like Jiangsu Bank have demonstrated significant profit growth, with a 8.84% increase in net profit year-on-year in Q3 2025, highlighting their operational resilience [5][59] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "performance differentiation and valuation rebalancing" pattern, with banks positioned as core investment targets due to their low valuations, improving fundamentals, and attractive dividend yields [74] - Large state-owned banks such as ICBC and CCB are recommended for conservative investors due to their stable high dividends and strong financial positions [63][74] - Regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are also highlighted for their growth potential and solid asset quality, benefiting from regional economic advantages [70][74]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in November 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.0%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, primarily supported by corporate bond issuance, while credit and government bonds showed negative growth [6] - The report highlights a trend of short-term borrowing among enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Data - In November, the total social financing growth rate was 8.5%, with a new social financing addition of 2.49 trillion yuan, up 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate excluding government bonds was 6.0% [6][2] - Corporate bond financing net increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [6][4] 2. Credit and Loan Trends - The report indicates a weak increase in credit, with November's RMB loan growth rate at 6.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New loans for the month totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan [6] - Personal loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 215.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [4][6] 3. Deposit Trends - RMB deposit growth rate in November was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with new deposits amounting to 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [6] - The report notes a slowdown in deposit migration, with corporate deposits increasing by 645.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.7 billion yuan [6][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: identifying banks with potential for performance growth, emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [6]

Core Insights - The banking sector is intensifying its deposit marketing activities as the year-end approaches, with a focus on refined strategies to attract deposits amid declining interest rates and changes in the market [1][4] - Smaller banks are adopting differentiated deposit products with varying minimum deposit thresholds and interest rates, reflecting a more nuanced approach to customer segmentation [1][4] Group 1: Deposit Strategies - Banks are utilizing traditional methods such as raising interest rates, issuing large-denomination certificates of deposit, and offering points for deposits, while also implementing more detailed minimum deposit requirements and conditions for interest rate increases [1][4] - For example, Hangzhou Bank has introduced a tiered deposit product with minimum purchase amounts of 50,000, 200,000, and 500,000 yuan, corresponding to interest rates of 1.65%, 1.75%, and 1.8% respectively [2] - Inner Mongolia Rural Commercial Bank has launched a deposit product with minimum thresholds of 100 yuan and 200,000 yuan, offering varying interest rates based on the type of account [2][3] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall increase in deposit interest rates is more restrained compared to previous years, with most banks raising rates by only 5 to 15 basis points, contrasting with the 30 to 50 basis points seen in prior years [5][6] - The net interest margin pressure is prompting banks to manage deposit costs more effectively, focusing on optimizing the structure of deposits and expanding low-cost core deposits [6][8] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% in Q3, with large banks at 1.31% and rural commercial banks at 1.58%, indicating a stable but low margin environment [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 may see a stabilization and potential recovery of net interest margins, driven by improved costs of interest-bearing liabilities and a more balanced reduction in both asset and liability rates [7][8] - The banking sector is expected to continue refining its marketing strategies to attract deposits, particularly targeting high-net-worth individuals and optimizing customer segmentation to enhance profitability [4][8]

12月12日江苏银行大宗交易一览 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为51.26亿元，近5日增加1.76亿元，增幅为3.56%。 据天眼查APP显示，江苏银行股份有限公司成立于2007年01月22日，注册资本1835132.4463万人民币。 （数据宝） （原标题：江苏银行大宗交易成交543.92万元） 江苏银行12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量52.35万股，成交金额543.92万元，大宗交易成交 价为10.39元。该笔交易的买方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为机构专用。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，江苏银行今日收盘价为10.39元，下跌0.19%，日换手率为1.08%，成交额为 20.66亿元，全天主力资金净流出2.70亿元，近5日该股累计下跌1.14%，近5日资金合计净流出3.01亿 元。 | 成交量 （万股） | 成交金额 （万元） | 成交价格 （元） | 相对当日 收盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （%） | | | | 52.35 | 543.92 | 10.39 | ...

| | | | | | | 机构专用 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-12-12 | 江苏银行 | 证券代码 --------- 600919 | 成交价(元) 成交盒额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 10.39 543.92 | 52.35 | 国泰海通运营股份 | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 180 | 12月12日，江苏银行大宗交易成交52.35万股，成交额543.92万元，占当日总成交额的0.26%，成交价 10.39元，较市场收盘价10.39元持平。 ...

Core Points - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.23% on December 12, with Hangzhou Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258.33, up 0.84% [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Hangzhou Bank closed at 15.12, down 0.92% with a trading volume of 543,600 shares and a transaction value of 824 million yuan [2] - Qilu Bank closed at 5.63, down 0.71% with a trading volume of 1,165,000 shares and a transaction value of 657 million yuan [2] - Qingdao Bank closed at 4.58, down 0.65% with a trading volume of 370,100 shares and a transaction value of 169 million yuan [2] - Chongqing Bank closed at 10.84, down 0.64% with a trading volume of 118,200 shares and a transaction value of 129 million yuan [2] - Chengdu Bank closed at 16.35, down 0.49% with a trading volume of 390,900 shares and a transaction value of 642 million yuan [2] - Lanzhou Bank closed at 2.32, down 0.43% with a trading volume of 529,700 shares and a transaction value of 123 million yuan [2] - Xiamen Bank closed at 7.56, down 0.26% with a trading volume of 358,000 shares and a transaction value of 270 million yuan [2] - Ningbo Bank closed at 27.72, down 0.25% with a trading volume of 215,400 shares and a transaction value of 596 million yuan [2] - Changsha Bank closed at 9.48, down 0.21% with a trading volume of 321,800 shares and a transaction value of 306 million yuan [2] - Jiangsu Bank closed at 10.39, down 0.19% with a trading volume of 1,989,400 shares and a transaction value of 2.066 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 9.0898 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 230 million yuan [4] - Speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 2.21 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Bank is actively promoting dining consumption in response to the provincial government's call, integrating financial services into the dining scene through various initiatives aimed at stimulating consumer spending and supporting social welfare [1][2][5] Group 1: Consumer Initiatives - Jiangsu Bank has launched the "I am Chef" series, providing a one-stop service for over 22 million customers through its app, which includes food exploration, activity live streaming, and dining discounts [2][3] - The bank is offering exclusive financial products for food enthusiasts, including a special credit card that provides over 600 yuan in dining vouchers, enhancing the value of consumer spending [2][3] - During the "919" Wealth Festival, the bank organized a "9.9 yuan" dining promotion in collaboration with well-known brands, providing tangible discounts to consumers [3][4] Group 2: Merchant Support - Jiangsu Bank supports restaurant businesses with a combination of funding, credit support, and wealth planning services, including special loans and subsidies for dining merchants [2][4] - The bank is leveraging its resources to attract customers to dining establishments, aiming to create a new wave of dining consumption [2][4] - The bank has developed a "Su Products" shopping cart on its mobile banking app to connect B-end merchants with C-end consumers, promoting local products nationwide [4][5] Group 3: Event-Driven Promotions - Jiangsu Bank has organized various themed food festivals throughout the year, such as "Lobster Festival" and "Hot Pot Festival," to continuously provide consumers with dining discounts [3][4] - The bank is also participating in major consumer events like "Double Twelve," focusing on key consumption areas such as dining and electronics, to enhance market vitality [3][4] Group 4: Financial Technology Integration - Jiangsu Bank is enhancing its subsidy application platform to facilitate consumer access to policy benefits, demonstrating a commitment to financial inclusivity [4][6] - The bank is promoting digital RMB settlements to improve payment efficiency and security for merchants, addressing potential pain points in transaction processes [4][6]