Group 1 - The core focus of Jiangsu Bank is to enhance consumer spending by providing subsidies and payment discounts in key sectors such as dining, 3C digital products, and home appliances, in anticipation of the upcoming Double Twelve shopping festival [1] - Jiangsu Bank is increasing resource investment in online platforms like Taobao and JD.com to promote "Su Products" and is also organizing exclusive offline activities to drive sales during the Double Twelve period [2] - The bank is collaborating with the provincial commerce department on the "Car Renewal" initiative, offering one-stop car purchasing solutions and exclusive financial products to support consumption upgrades [3] Group 2 - Jiangsu Bank has launched the "Fuel Jiangsu" incentive program in partnership with leading fuel companies, which includes a ticket incentive policy and consumption coupon usage guides to enhance participation and data scale [4] - The bank emphasizes the importance of "promoting consumption" as a key theme for the year, utilizing a combination of financial and non-financial strategies to stimulate domestic demand and support social welfare [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank has demonstrated strong growth in assets, deposits, and loans while maintaining a focus on high-quality development and investor returns through consistent cash dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 4.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.68% [1] - The bank's total deposits amounted to 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.22% compared to the end of the previous year [1] - Total loans stood at 2.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.87% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiangsu Bank reported revenue of 67.183 billion yuan, an increase of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.583 billion yuan, up 8.32% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Investor Relations and Dividends - Jiangsu Bank has maintained a cash dividend payout ratio of 30% of net profit in recent years, with cumulative cash dividends of nearly 50 billion yuan since its listing [2] - The bank plans to increase the frequency of dividends by introducing mid-term dividends in response to policy calls, with specific arrangements to be determined by the board based on profitability and cash flow [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The bank emphasizes project reserves as the foundation for asset allocation, aiming for steady growth in reserves and orderly credit deployment [2] - Jiangsu Bank has established a normalized project reserve mechanism and is currently advancing its project reserves for 2026, aligning with policy directions in key areas [2] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Jiangsu Bank had 159,305 shareholders, an increase of 20,480 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 1.1992 million yuan per shareholder [3] - The participating institution in the recent research, Ruiyuan Fund, focuses on value investment and has seen a 61.37% growth in its fund value over the past year [3]

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

Group 1 - The banking industry in 2026 will face a mixed external environment with strong macroeconomic resilience but insufficient effective demand, leading to continued moderate monetary policy and challenges in asset allocation due to a low interest rate environment [4][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a financial powerhouse, urging banks to leverage their resource endowments and deepen their strategic initiatives over the next five years [4][10][22] - The overall financial performance of listed banks is expected to improve in 2026, driven by the recovery of net interest income and non-interest income, with a projected net profit growth of 2.4% year-on-year [4][27] Group 2 - The net interest margin is expected to narrow by 6 basis points in 2026, with net interest income growth projected to rise to 4% compared to 0.3% in 2025 [4][27] - Non-interest income is anticipated to continue improving due to the recovery of wealth management opportunities and the fading impact of fee reductions from previous years [4][27] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring risks in the retail sector [4][27] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes high dividend yields as a protective measure, with the banking sector's average dividend yield at 3.94%, providing a significant premium over ten-year government bonds [4][27] - Specific banks such as Chengdu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Shanghai Bank are highlighted for their strong regional advantages and potential for continued dividend growth [4][27][34] - The report suggests that the active capital market will provide a potential boost to quality retail banks, enhancing their recovery prospects [4][27]

Economic News - In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, while the purchasing price index fell by 2.5% year-on-year. The average for January to November shows a decline of 2.7% for the producer price index and 3.1% for the purchasing price index compared to the same period last year [1] - The consumer price index for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with an average for January to November remaining flat compared to the previous year [1] - The United Nations reported that global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time in 2025, with a projected growth of approximately 7% compared to last year [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts China's economic growth rate to reach 5% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the management measures for public service platforms in industrial technology, focusing on key industries such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology [1] Company News - Haiguang Information has terminated its plan to merge with Zhongke Shuguang through a share exchange [4] - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [4] - SIRUI announced the termination of its plan to acquire shares of Aola and will resume trading on December 10, 2025 [4] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has launched Qwen Code v0.3.0, enhancing its capabilities for developers [4] - Xiamen Airport is planning to acquire 100% equity of its controlling shareholder's subsidiary, Zhaoxiang Technology, using its own funds [4] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The recent adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aims to enhance their long-term investment management capabilities and support the real economy [5][6] - Specific adjustments include lowering risk factors for certain stock indices and export credit insurance, which is expected to stabilize the capital market and improve the efficiency of insurance fund utilization [7][8] - The regulatory changes are anticipated to benefit major industry players and promote a balanced and healthy development of the equity market [9][10]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Bank, as a nationally significant bank, has launched promotional measures for the "Double Twelve" shopping festival, focusing on innovative approaches, strong investments, and the integration of scenarios, resources, and policies to boost consumption [1][9] - The "Su New Consumption·Warm Winter Shopping Season" and "Double Twelve Shopping Carnival" were officially launched on December 5 at the Suzhou International Expo Center [3] - The event featured a booth by Jiangsu Bank that creatively combined financial characteristics with local culture, generating strong interest among attendees [4] Group 2 - Jiangsu Bank provided 5,000 consumption discount vouchers for use at participating merchants, along with 2,000 digital RMB red envelopes available through a knowledge quiz [6][4] - Exclusive products such as wallet-shaped IP items were introduced, symbolizing prosperity and financial well-being for customers [7] - A promotional activity allowed customers to enjoy coffee from a smart coffee machine for just 0.01 yuan, highlighting the bank's commitment to enhancing consumer experiences [9] Group 3 - Jiangsu Bank's Suzhou branch emphasized the need to meet the upgrading demands of consumer spending by integrating finance with local culture and tourism, creating a comprehensive financial service system [11] - The bank aims to empower consumer spending through tailored credit, payment discounts, and other diverse measures, contributing to local high-quality development [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the adjustment of the interest rate shock scenario by the Basel Committee (BCBS), reducing the parallel upward shift from 250 basis points (BP) to 225 BP, which is expected to improve the ΔEVE (Economic Value of Equity) to Tier 1 Capital ratio for major banks [4][5] - It is estimated that this adjustment could release approximately CNY 1 trillion in capacity for 30-year local government bonds and CNY 1.5 trillion for 15-year bonds [6][8] - The report anticipates that the regulatory requirements for interest rate risk indicators may be relaxed in 2026, potentially alleviating the pressure on banks [7] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Shock Adjustment - The BCBS has revised the interest rate shock scenario, reducing the parallel upward shift from 250 BP to 225 BP, which is expected to enhance the ΔEVE/Tier 1 Capital ratio by 0.92% to 1.57% for major banks [4][12] - Major banks such as ICBC, CCB, ABC, and BOC are projected to see improvements in their ΔEVE ratios, with specific improvements of 1.13%, 1.36%, 1.57%, and 0.92% respectively [5][12] Capacity Release for Local Government Bonds - The adjustment in interest rate shock is expected to release approximately CNY 870 billion for 30-year local government bonds and CNY 1.16 trillion for 15-year bonds [5][14] - If the Ministry of Finance injects capital into ICBC and ABC in 2026, it could further improve their ΔEVE ratios and release additional capacity for local government bonds [6][15] Regulatory Environment - The report suggests that regulatory constraints on banks may be relaxed, with a potential reduction in the required shock levels and a possible easing of the upper limit on risk indicators [7] - The report notes that major banks sold approximately CNY 740 billion in 7-10 year bonds and CNY 850 billion in 20-30 year bonds from January to November 2025, indicating a shift in their bond portfolio strategy [16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a bottom-up approach focusing on large state-owned banks, with specific beneficiaries identified as Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [8] - Core investments are suggested in leading comprehensive banks, with China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank highlighted as key beneficiaries [8]

Core Insights - The awards for financial bond underwriting and market-making have been announced, recognizing various banks and securities firms for their outstanding performance in the industry [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Group 1: Outstanding Underwriters - The title of "Outstanding Underwriter" was awarded to several banks, including CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1][2] - A total of 10 banks were recognized as "Excellent Underwriters," highlighting their contributions to the financial bond market [1] Group 2: Excellent Market Makers - The "Excellent Market Maker" category included firms such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities, showcasing their role in enhancing market liquidity [2][4] - A diverse range of banks, including Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank, were acknowledged for their market-making capabilities [2][4] Group 3: Special Awards - Special awards were given for various categories, including "Debt Sea Rising Award" and "Green Low Carbon Award," recognizing banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China for their innovative approaches [3] - The "Technology Innovation Award" was awarded to banks that demonstrated significant advancements in financial technology [3] Group 4: Individual Recognitions - Individual awards were presented to key personnel from various banks, such as CITIC Bank's Sun Wei and China Everbright Bank's Liu Yan, acknowledging their leadership in driving financial bond initiatives [4][5] - The "Outstanding Underwriting Supervisor" category highlighted individuals from major banks, emphasizing the importance of leadership in underwriting processes [5]