利润增速保持强劲，资产质量连续七年优化 齐鲁银行(601665) 齐鲁银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 齐鲁银行业务规模保持较快增长，同时主动加强负债成本管控，净息差同比改善， 资产质量持续向好，打开信用成本下行空间，利润增速快于同业。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,952 | 12,496 | 13,125 | 14,259 | 15,809 | | (+/-)% | 8.0% | 4. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest of insurance capital in specific sectors and companies, particularly in regional banks and new productivity sectors, as indicated by their extensive research activities [1][2][3] - Since the beginning of 2026, over 300 A-share listed companies have been researched by insurance companies and asset management firms, with significant participation from 96 insurance companies and 32 asset management companies [2] - Key areas of focus for insurance capital include regional banks such as Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank, as well as sectors like electronic components, semiconductor materials, and devices [2][3] Group 2 - Insurance capital is increasingly favoring high-dividend stocks as a stable source of cash flow, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which drives the demand for equity assets [4] - The strategy of investing in high-dividend stocks is seen as a way to enhance returns and stabilize portfolios, with a focus on long-term holdings and dividend yields [4][5] - The shift towards high-dividend stocks is also a response to new accounting standards that increase profit statement volatility, making these investments more attractive [4] Group 3 - Insurance capital is aligning with the new productivity sector, which relies on technological innovation and strategic emerging industries, requiring long-term and stable capital support [5][6] - Investments are being directed towards technology leaders with clear business models and performance track records, while emerging tech sectors may be approached through industry-themed ETFs or funds to mitigate risks [6] - The focus on AI-driven technology and high-end manufacturing is expected to be central to future technological revolutions, with a commitment to direct investments in companies with strong competitive advantages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector continues to show strong performance, with significant gains in individual bank stocks and a notable increase in the banking ETF, indicating a potential market style shift towards large-cap and quality stocks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 5, the banking sector saw collective gains, with Xiamen Bank hitting a trading limit and reaching its highest price since June 2021 [1]. - Major banks such as Chongqing Bank and Shanghai Bank also experienced significant increases, with gains of nearly 6% and over 4% respectively [1]. - The largest banking ETF (512800) opened high and further surged, closing up 1.67% with a trading volume of 1.071 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase in market activity [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Style Shift - There was a rapid influx of main funds into the banking sector, with a net inflow of 5.502 billion yuan, ranking second among all Shenwan first-level industries [3]. - Institutions suggest that the current strength in the banking sector may indicate a style shift in the market, moving from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from thematic to quality investments [3]. - Historical data shows that the banking sector has a high success rate before the Spring Festival, with an 80% win rate for absolute and excess returns over the past decade [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Banks - As of the 2025 reporting season, 10 listed banks that have disclosed performance reports achieved positive growth in net profit, with 9 of them reporting both revenue and net profit increases [5]. - Despite a challenging environment characterized by declining interest rates and narrowing interest margins, the banking sector is demonstrating stable growth, providing fundamental support for valuation recovery [5]. - The banking ETF (512800) and its linked funds are effective investment tools tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, with the ETF's latest scale exceeding 12.2 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 800 million yuan since 2025 [5].

Group 1: Qilu Bank - Qilu Bank announced a board resolution on February 4, approving the appointment of current president Zhang Hua as Chief Compliance Officer, with a term ending on August 10, 2026 [1][6] - Zhang Hua, born in June 1966, holds a bachelor's and master's degree, and has extensive practical experience in banking, having risen through the ranks at Qilu Bank [1][6] - His career includes key positions such as branch manager and head of credit management, as well as experience in local government financial oversight, enhancing his compliance management expertise [1][6] Group 2: Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank - On January 29, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's board approved the appointment of president Sui Jun as Chief Compliance Officer, with unanimous support from the board [2][7] - Sui Jun, born in December 1968, is a member of the Communist Party and holds a doctoral degree in economics, with a rich background in banking [2][7] - His previous roles include various leadership positions in both Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and China Construction Bank, showcasing his extensive experience in the financial sector [2][7] Group 3: Xiamen Bank - Xiamen Bank announced on January 28 that its board approved the appointment of assistant president and Chief Risk Officer Chen Song as Chief Compliance Officer, pending regulatory approval [3][8] - Chen Song, born in May 1974, has a strong background in risk management and compliance, having held various positions in banking [3][8] - His experience includes roles at Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank, contributing to his qualifications in risk control and compliance management [3][8] Group 4: Pudong Development Bank - On January 24, Pudong Development Bank's board approved the appointment of Cui Bingwen as Chief Risk Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and General Counsel, with a term aligned with the current board [4][8] - Cui Bingwen, born in 1969, holds a doctoral degree and has extensive banking experience, having served in various leadership roles [4][8] - His career includes significant positions at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Pudong Development Bank, enhancing his expertise in legal and compliance matters [4][8]

详解齐鲁银行 2025 业绩快报： 业绩优异持续，资产质量持续优化 城商行Ⅱ Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn | | 11 | 发 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 十 17 | 1 | 18 | 907 2 | | 总股本(百万股) | 6,153.84 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 6,153.84 | | 市价(元) | 5.76 | | 市值(百万元) | 35,446.13 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 35,446.13 | 1、《详解齐鲁银行 2025 年三季报： 垫持续增厚》2025-11-01 2025-08-31 2025-07-07 | | | | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

详解齐鲁银行 2025 业绩快报： 业绩优异持续，资产质量持续优化 城商行Ⅱ Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn 1、《详解齐鲁银行 2025 年三季报： 垫持续增厚》2025-11-01 2025-08-31 2025-07-07 | | | | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 11,940 | 12,487 | 13,121 | 13,725 | 14,383 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 增长率 yoy% | 8.04% | 4.57% | 5.08% | 4.60% | 4.79% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a collective rise, with all 42 stocks showing positive performance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector index rebounded from a low of 6627.36 points on January 29 to close at 6904.39 points, indicating a clear recovery trend [1] - Qingdao Bank led the sector with a 23.88% increase, followed by Ningbo Bank at 15.81%, and several other banks showing gains exceeding 8% [1] Group 2: Factors Driving the Rise - Multiple factors contributed to the rise in bank stocks, including positive earnings forecasts for 2025, stable revenue and net profit growth, and improving asset quality [2] - The banking sector is expected to continue the "early investment, early returns" strategy in 2026, with projected new credit accounting for 62%-65% of the annual total in the first quarter [2] - A shift in market sentiment from growth to value has led to a flow of funds back into undervalued banking stocks, which are seen as defensive investments [2]

业务规模方面，报告期末，齐鲁银行资产总额8043.81亿元，较上年末增加1148.42亿元，增长16.65%； 贷款总额3828.34亿元，较上年末增加456.92亿元，增长13.55%；存款总额4895.31亿元，较上年末增加 499.89亿元，增长11.37%。 2月4日，齐鲁银行发布2025年业绩快报。2025年，该行实现营业收入131.35亿元，同比增长5.12%；其 中净息差1.53%，同比提高2BP，量价齐升带动利息净收入实现105.19亿元，同比增长16.48%；归属于 上市公司股东的净利润57.13亿元，同比增长14.58%。 资产质量方面，截至报告期末，齐鲁银行不良贷款率1.05%，较上年末下降0.14个百分点；拨备覆盖率 355.91%，较上年末提高33.53个百分点，主要资产质量指标连续七年保持优化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced significant gains on February 5, with multiple banks reaching new highs and notable percentage increases in their stock prices [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Bank's stock price reached 7.93, marking a 9.99% increase, the highest since June 2021 [2]. - Chongqing Bank's stock rose to 11.00, reflecting a 6.80% increase [2]. - Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank saw increases of over 4%, with prices at 9.78 and 11.23 respectively [2]. - Other banks such as Yuzhong Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank also experienced gains, with increases of 3.62% and 3.25% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant gains in bank stocks, with notable increases in share prices for several banks, indicating positive market sentiment towards the banking sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Bank experienced a maximum increase of 9.99%, reaching a total market capitalization of 20.9 billion [2]. - Chongqing Bank rose by 7.18%, with a market value of 38.4 billion [2]. - Shanghai Bank's shares increased by 4.38%, bringing its market capitalization to 139 billion [2]. - Nanjing Bank saw a rise of 3.90%, with a total market value of 138.5 billion [2]. - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank increased by 3.31%, with a market capitalization of 74.5 billion [2]. - Ningbo Bank's shares rose by 3.25%, reaching a market value of 216.1 billion [2]. - Qilu Bank increased by 2.95%, with a market capitalization of 36.5 billion [2]. - Hangzhou Bank's shares rose by 2.91%, bringing its market value to 120.4 billion [2]. - Jiangsu Bank saw an increase of 2.36%, with a total market capitalization of 191.2 billion [2]. - Changsha Bank's shares rose by 2.38%, with a market value of 39.8 billion [2]. - Zhangjiagang Bank increased by 2.19%, reaching a market capitalization of 1.14 billion [2]. - Chengdu Bank's shares rose by 2.05%, with a total market value of 69.5 billion [2]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Xiamen Bank has a year-to-date increase of 8.04% [2]. - Chongqing Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.56% [2]. - Shanghai Bank has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.17% [2]. - Nanjing Bank's year-to-date performance is down by 2.01% [2]. - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank has a year-to-date increase of 4.89% [2]. - Ningbo Bank has the highest year-to-date increase at 16.52% [2]. - Qilu Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.31% [2]. - Hangzhou Bank has a year-to-date increase of 8.70% [2]. - Jiangsu Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.41% [2]. - Changsha Bank has a year-to-date increase of 2.06% [2]. - Zhangjiagang Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 1.97% [2]. - Chengdu Bank has a year-to-date increase of 1.67% [2].