Group 1 - In January, 11 A-share listed banks were surveyed by 373 institutions, with a total of 49 survey instances, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1] - The surveyed banks include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Suzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Xiamen Bank, Hu Nong Bank, Qing Nong Bank, and Zijin Bank, with six banks experiencing stock price increases, led by Qingdao Bank with over 16% growth [2] - Nanjing Bank was the most favored by institutions, receiving 76 surveys, while Shanghai Bank received 75 surveys, indicating strong interest in their credit issuance during the marketing peak [2] Group 2 - The focus of the credit issuance during the peak marketing season is on corporate credit, with banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025, emphasizing manufacturing, infrastructure, and green transformation projects [2][3] - Shanghai Bank anticipates a continued decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2026, which may lead to a slight decrease in net interest margin due to competitive market factors [4] - Qilu Bank aims to stabilize its net interest margin by optimizing asset management and expanding low-cost deposits while managing liabilities effectively [4] Group 3 - The overall pressure on net interest margin for listed banks is expected to ease in 2026, with a narrowing decline anticipated, supported by improvements in funding costs [5] - Shanghai Bank predicts that bond yields will continue to fluctuate within a range in 2026, with low likelihood of a trend reversal [5] - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investments primarily for allocation, while also employing advanced technologies for trading and risk management [6]

Market Overview - On February 2, the city commercial bank sector declined by 0.3% compared to the previous trading day, with Qilu Bank leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Shanghai Bank (601229) closed at 66.6, up 1.62% with a trading volume of 821,000 shares and a transaction value of 776 million [1] - Beijing Bank (601169) closed at 5.35, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 2.4269 million shares and a transaction value of 1.304 billion [1] - Nanjing Bank (6001009) closed at 10.62, up 0.85% with a trading volume of 844,400 shares and a transaction value of 902 million [1] - Qilu Bank (601665) closed at 5.73, down 1.55% with a trading volume of 715,600 shares and a transaction value of 415 million [2] - Hangzhou Bank (600926) closed at 15.92, down 1.49% with a trading volume of 521,800 shares and a transaction value of 840 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 17.93 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 157.95 million [2] - Major banks like Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank had significant net inflows from institutional investors, with Shanghai Bank receiving 71.52 million, accounting for 9.22% of its total [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a notable outflow from several banks, including Beijing Bank, which saw a retail net outflow of 64.17 million, representing 4.92% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for several listed companies from January 26 to February 1, with notable mentions including Baili Tianheng, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and Great Wall Motors, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market for these stocks [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Baili Tianheng (688506) has a target price increase of 375.97%, with a highest target price set at 1322.00 yuan [2]. - Zexing Pharmaceutical (688266) shows a target price increase of 88.56%, with a highest target price of 166.16 yuan [2]. - Great Wall Motors (601633) has a target price increase of 83.66%, with a highest target price of 38.00 yuan [2]. - Other companies with notable target price increases include Industrial Fulian (601138) at 73.31% and CATL (300750) at 71.71% [2][3]. Broker Recommendations - A total of 265 listed companies received broker recommendations during the period, with Qingdao Bank receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8 [3][4]. - Other companies with multiple recommendations include Xian Dao Intelligent and Wancheng Group, each receiving 5 recommendations [3][4]. Rating Adjustments - Eight companies had their ratings upgraded, including Shanghai Jahwa (600315) from "Hold" to "Buy" and ZTE Corporation (000063) from "Cautious Buy" to "Buy" [5][6]. - Two companies had their ratings downgraded, including Jincheng Shares (603396) from "Buy" to "Hold" and Huasheng Group (603018) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6]. First-Time Coverage - During the same period, 75 instances of first-time coverage were reported, with notable ratings including Shaanxi Tourism (603402) receiving a "Outperform Industry" rating and Bichu Electronics (688188) receiving a "Buy" rating [7].

Group 1: Company Insights - Qilu Bank (601665) is identified as a growth-oriented city commercial bank in Shandong province, with expected continued high profit growth supported by regional expansion and favorable non-performing asset generation [5] - The target price for Qilu Bank is set at 7.47 CNY per share, representing a 33% upside potential based on a 2026 target PB valuation of 0.85x [5] - Revenue projections for Qilu Bank are estimated at 13,019 million CNY, 13,652 million CNY, and 14,494 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 5,708 million CNY, 6,396 million CNY, and 7,144 million CNY [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive parts industry, particularly in passenger car seating, is noted for its high design barriers and substantial profit margins in high-end models, indicating significant valuation upside potential for the sector [3][19] - The report highlights the resilience of Middle Eastern exports, driven by non-oil economic transformation, with strong import growth supported by fiscal and sovereign fund initiatives [10] - The bond market is expected to experience moderate recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in credit varieties, as the market is currently viewed as having limited negative factors [14]

2025年前三季度，本行净息差1.54%，较2024年提升3BP。一是优化资产组合管理，鼓励加大贷款投 放，绿色、科创、制造业等重点领域业务实现较快增长；加强定价精细化管理，着力稳定资产端收益水 平。二是统筹资金来源，完善多元化负债体系，积极拓展低成本存款，有序下调存款利率；充分利用央 行低成本资金，择机吸收市场化资金，持续引导付息负债成本率压降，有效缓冲了资产端收益率下行压 力。 本行持续强化风险前瞻和主动管理，纵深推进信贷结构调整，强化重点业务、重点机构管控，多措并举 拓宽处置渠道，有效提升资产保全质效，资产质量持续优化。截至2025年三季度末，本行不良贷款率 1.09%，较2024年末下降0.10个百分点；拨备覆盖率351.43%，较2024年末提高29.05个百分点。下一 步，本行将统筹抓好业务发展和风险控制，有序推进重点领域风险化解，预计资产质量保持稳中向好的 趋势。 截至2026年1月30日收盘，齐鲁银行（601665）报收于5.82元，较上周的5.54元上涨5.05%。本周，齐鲁 银行1月30日盘中最高价报5.88元。1月26日盘中最低价报5.5元。齐鲁银行当前最新总市值358.15亿元， 在城 ...

银行板块盘中持续走高，青岛银行涨停，消息面上，青岛银行发布2025年度业绩快报，实现归属于母公 司股东净利润51.88亿元，同比增长21.66%。此前已有招商银行、兴业银行、宁波银行等8家上市银行率 先交出2025年度业绩快报，所有银行均实现净利润正增长。 中国银河证券指出，四季度市场风格整体延续上季度，资金对银行板块青睐程度维持在相对低位。但同 时，国有行、股份行持续受关注。近期被动资金流出对银行资金面形成扰动，但在低利率与中长期资金 加速入市的环境下，银行板块高股息、低估值的红利属性仍对险资等长线资金具备持续吸引力，加速估 值定价重构。继续看好银行板块红利价值。 截至2026年1月29日 14:07，中证银行指数(399986)强势上涨1.68%，成分股青岛银行上涨9.94%，渝农商 行上涨3.86%，宁波银行上涨3.70%，齐鲁银行，江苏银行等个股跟涨。银行ETF鹏华(512730)上涨 1.34%，最新价报1.59元。 银行ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证银行指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投 资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 一文纵览全国分省份财政社融特征 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （5）地方债务：2024 年所有省份狭义赤字率平均为 16.4%，广义赤 字率平均为 20.0%，处于 2010 年来偏低水平；债务率平均为 357.0%， 2016 年来持续上行。 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-28 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, active funds did not significantly reduce their holdings in bank stocks, with a stable allocation ratio of 1.86% compared to the previous quarter. This reflects a general decline in market risk appetite. However, it is anticipated that the allocation ratio may decrease further in Q1 2026 due to a significant rebound in risk appetite and the relative underperformance of bank stocks at the beginning of the year [2][6] - The selection of individual stocks has shifted towards a focus on fundamental trends, with Ningbo Bank seeing the most significant increase in allocation due to improved asset quality and performance expectations. The bank has established a turning point in retail asset quality and is expected to lead the sector in performance [7][8] - The report suggests that the core investment strategy for 2026 should prioritize high-performing regional banks, particularly city commercial banks, as they are expected to maintain superior growth rates amid a stable credit structure [9] Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the allocation ratio of active public funds to bank stocks remained stable at 1.86%, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. The allocation ratio is expected to hit a new low in Q1 2026 due to a resurgence in risk appetite and the underperformance of bank stocks [6][8] - City commercial banks experienced a reduction of approximately 1.7 billion in total holdings, but Ningbo Bank was notably increased by 860 million, reflecting a shift towards stocks with improving fundamentals [7][8] Stock Selection Trends - The focus on stock selection has shifted from high dividend yields to fundamental trends, with Ningbo Bank being the most significantly increased stock in Q4 2025. The bank's asset quality indicators have shown continuous improvement, and it is expected to see a growth in performance in 2026 [7][8] - Conversely, stocks like Chengdu Bank have been reduced significantly, reflecting concerns over performance volatility and ongoing adjustments in business structure [7] Market Dynamics - The banking sector has faced downward pressure due to capital outflows from active funds and index funds, leading to undervaluation in bank stocks. The report recommends seizing opportunities in quality city commercial banks at lower price levels [9][33] - The report highlights that the allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on high-quality city commercial banks, as they are expected to outperform in terms of earnings growth amid a stable credit environment [9]

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Qingdao Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingdao Bank (002948) closed at 4.61, up 2.22% with a trading volume of 820,200 shares and a transaction value of 376 million [1] - Ningbo Bank (002142) closed at 30.55, up 0.86% with a trading volume of 507,200 shares and a transaction value of 1545 million [1] - Hangzhou Bank (600926) closed at 15.69, up 0.71% with a trading volume of 837,900 shares and a transaction value of 1323 million [1] - Qilu Bank (601665) closed at 5.59, up 0.54% with a trading volume of 649,200 shares and a transaction value of 363 million [1] - Chongqing Bank (601963) closed at 10.36, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 91,200 shares and a transaction value of 94.52 million [1] - Shanghai Bank (601229) closed at 9.27, up 0.11% with a trading volume of 635,000 shares and a transaction value of 593 million [1] - Other banks such as Changsha Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Suzhou Bank showed minimal changes in their stock prices [1] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 404 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 4.15 billion [2] - The main funds' net inflow and outflow for individual banks varied, with Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank showing significant inflows [3] - Retail investors showed notable outflows in several banks, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The banking sector continues to adjust, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, primarily due to significant net outflows from broad-based ETF index funds [2][6] - Despite the short-term pressures, the fundamental outlook for quality bank stocks is stable, and their valuations are considered oversold, indicating a potential buying opportunity [6][20] - Recommended banks include quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong regions, such as Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 2.7%, with excess returns of -2.0% and -2.3% compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices respectively [6][20] - Significant net outflows from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs amounted to 238 billion and 36.1 billion respectively, indicating a worsening trend in fund outflows [6][20] Individual Bank Performance - Some smaller banks, like Qingdao Bank, showed positive performance due to favorable fundamental expectations, while larger state-owned banks lagged [2][6] - Eight banks reported Q4 earnings, with most showing revenue growth exceeding expectations, driven by stabilized net interest margins and increased interest income [8] Market Trends - There is a growing interest in the recovery potential of oversold bank stocks, as evidenced by a slight net inflow into bank-related index funds after a period of outflows [26] - The average turnover rate for bank stocks has increased, but the transaction volume share for various bank types, excluding joint-stock banks, has decreased [45][49] Convertible Bonds - The space for strong redemption of convertible bonds in the banking sector has expanded, with current stock prices approaching redemption thresholds [43] - Notable banks for potential convertible bond trading opportunities include Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which have stable performance expectations [43]