智通财经APP获悉，中诚信国际发文称，预计2026年，在地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用走弱、美联储货币政策和财政政策不确定性尚存的背景下，黄金避 险需求对价格的影响更为显著，黄金价格有望进一步上升。黄金企业盈利及获现能力亦将随金价的提升而增强，收并购及探矿增储带来的资金需求及存货 对资金的占用可能进一步推升债务规模，但考虑到黄金金融属性，行业信用风险处于很低水平。 中诚信国际观察到，2025年以来，关税摩擦、美元信用走弱、地缘政治局势紧张等因素令黄金价格持续攀升，年内金价涨幅超60%，此背景下的上游矿山 利润增厚或将使得黄金企业盈利水平进一步提升，且得益于黄金的金融属性，行业经营表现整体向好。黄金行业景气度持续提升，行业内企业扩产项目推 进及资源收并购推升资金需求，总债务规模扩大。但行业内企业在金价高企时持续推进收并购项目，可能加大其财务压力。 中诚信国际预计，在地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用走弱、美联储货币政策和财政政策不确定性尚存的背景下，黄金金融属性将更加凸显，2026年黄金价格 有望进一步上升。在行业利润及经营活动净现金流持续向好的背景下，多数黄金企业实现很好的经营积累，黄金企业偿债能力增强，整体信用水平有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen further declines in prices, but the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts this year are expected to support precious metal prices moving forward [2][3]. Precious Metals - Gold price this week was $4,948.00 per ounce, down $33.85 from January 30, a decrease of -0.68% [2]. - Silver price this week was $74.94 per ounce, down $28.25 from January 30, a decrease of -27.38% [2]. - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed views on the need for interest rate cuts this year, with expectations of multiple cuts [2]. Copper and Aluminum - Demand weakened as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to stable prices for copper and aluminum [4][6]. - LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down $540 from January 30, a decrease of -4.02% [4]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down ¥3,360 from January 30, a decrease of -3.26% [4]. - Domestic aluminum price was ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [5]. Tin - Domestic refined tin price was ¥356,660 per ton, down ¥66,970 from January 30, a decrease of -15.81% [7]. - Inventory levels indicate a tightening supply situation, but short-term demand remains weak [7]. Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price was ¥160,000 per ton, unchanged from January 30 [8]. - Demand feedback is average, and prices are expected to remain stable [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [9]. - Copper industry also maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tight supply [10]. - Aluminum, tin, and antimony industries maintain "recommended" investment ratings based on supply dynamics [11]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...

美银证券发布研报称，重申紫金矿业(02899)为首选股份，维持"买入"评级，予其H股目标价50港元，紫 金矿业A股(601899.SH)目标价45元人民币；认为公司长期产量增长强劲，成本控制严格，且估值合理， 且看好金价及铜价前景。 紫金矿业上调2026至2028年产量指引，预期矿产金产量将于2028年达到130至140吨，原先指引为100至 110吨；2025至2028年间年均复合增长率为13%至16%。同时，公司指引2028年铜产量将达150万至160 万吨，即2025至2028年间的年均复合增长率为11%至14%。公司亦将2028年的锂产量指引上调至27万至 32万吨，原先为25万至30万吨，即2025至2028年间的年复合增长率达121%至134%。 ...

紫金矿业上调2026至2028年产量指引，预期矿产金产量将于2028年达到130至140吨，原先指引为100至 110吨；2025至2028年间年均复合增长率为13%至16%。同时，公司指引2028年铜产量将达150万至160 万吨，即2025至2028年间的年均复合增长率为11%至14%。公司亦将2028年的锂产量指引上调至27万至 32万吨，原先为25万至30万吨，即2025至2028年间的年复合增长率达121%至134%。 美银证券发布研报称，重申紫金矿业（601899）(02899)为首选股份，维持"买入"评级，予其H股目标价 50港元，紫金矿业A股(601899.SH)目标价45元人民币；认为公司长期产量增长强劲，成本控制严格，且 估值合理，且看好金价及铜价前景。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a current opening price of 0.948 yuan and a 0.00% change [1] - The major holdings of the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which opened up by 0.91%, and other companies like China Aluminum and Shandong Gold, which also showed positive movements [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, and since its establishment on January 26, 2026, it has recorded a return of -5.23% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed list of the opening price changes for various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among the holdings [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Commodity Price Surge**: Commodity prices have increased significantly and are stabilizing at higher levels, impacting various sectors in China positively and negatively [1][11]. Positive Impacts - **Basic Materials Sector**: Beneficiaries include aluminum, copper, and lithium suppliers, with companies like Chalco, Hongqiao, and Zijin Mining receiving Buy ratings [2][1]. - **Gold Jewelry Sector**: Gold jewelers are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with brands in the high-end segment likely to gain market share [72][73]. - **CCL Players**: Companies in the copper-clad laminate (CCL) sector may see gross margin expansion due to rising copper prices [1][6]. Negative Impacts - **Automakers**: Mass-market battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are projected to face cost increases of Rmb6,565 and Rmb4,310 per vehicle, respectively, due to raw material price hikes [3][23]. - **Battery Industry**: Tier-2 battery makers are under pressure from rising raw material costs, while CATL is better positioned due to its bargaining power [4][27]. - **Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Solar Equipment**: Companies like Sungrow and Trina Solar are vulnerable to margin cuts due to increased costs of silver and copper [5][45]. - **Industrial & Robotics Firms**: Companies such as Johnson Electric and Hongfa Technology may experience earnings pressure from rising copper and silver costs [6][51]. - **Home Appliances**: Producers like Gree and Midea are facing margin reductions due to increased copper costs in air conditioning units [66][67]. - **Technology Sector**: Xiaomi is expected to see pressure on smartphone margins due to high memory costs, which account for 10-20% of the bill of materials [7][81]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Basic Materials**: The demand for aluminum and copper is driven by infrastructure development and the growth of AI, data centers, and electric vehicles [2]. - **Automotive Sector**: BYD and Geely are better positioned to absorb cost increases compared to smaller players like Xpeng and GAC [3][24]. - **Battery Makers**: Rising lithium prices have increased LFP battery cell costs by Rmb80/kWh, with significant pressure on margins expected [27][29]. - **ESS and Grid Equipment**: Pinggao is identified as the most vulnerable to commodity price increases, with a significant portion of its profits derived from gas-insulated switchgears [41][42]. - **Industrial Sector**: KBL is expected to benefit from the copper upcycle, with projected earnings growth significantly outpacing competitors [55][56]. Additional Considerations - **Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the PRC stock market in 2026 is optimistic, particularly for sectors like technology, healthcare, and basic materials [13]. - **Insurance Sector**: Gold price increases could benefit insurers participating in gold investment pilots, although current investments remain cautious [101]. Conclusion The report highlights the mixed impact of rising commodity prices across various sectors in China, with certain companies positioned to benefit while others face significant challenges. The insights provided can guide investment decisions in the context of the evolving market landscape.

Production targets (see details in Exhibit 1 ) To be top 3 gold and copper miner by 2030: Zijin was the fourth-largest listed copper miner and fifth-largest listed gold miner globally in 2025, and it plans to become a top 3 miner of these two metals. | M Zijin Mining Group Asia Pacific New 3-year plan announced: strong volume growth for copper, gold and lithium | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rachel.Zhang@morganstanley.com Chris Jiang Equity Analyst Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com Hannah Yang, CFA Equity Analy ...

Flash | 08 Feb 2026 22:24:14 ET │ 12 pages Zijin Mining (2899.HK) Three-Year Production Plan (2026-28) Unveiled, Maintain Top Pick CITI'S TAKE Zijin Mining announced its three-year production plan (2026-28) and outline of objectives through 2035 on 9 Feb. For 2026E, the production guidance for mined copper/gold/lithium/zinc/silver/moly is 1.20mnt/105t/120kt/400kt/520t/15kt, +10%/+17%/+380%/flat/+19%/+36% YoY, respectively. For 2028E, the production target for mined copper/gold/lithium/zinc/silver/moly is 1. ...