[Table_AuthorInfo] 分析师:李淼 煤电协同业绩稳健，增量转型打造皖北能 源基地 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 12003 | 12845 | 12716 | 12531 | 14735 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | -3.9% | 7.0% | -1.0% | -1.5% | 17.6% | | 净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 2077 | 2109 | 2336 | 2360 | 3114 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | -22.0% | 1.6% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 31.9% | | 全面摊薄 EPS( 元 ) | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.90 ...

证券代码：601918 证券简称：新集能源 中煤新集能源股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-投关-002 投资者关系 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 业绩说明会 活动类别 新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场调研 □电话会议 参与单位名 社会公众股东 称及人员 时间 2024 年 3 月 21 日（星期四）下午 15:00-17:00 现场：上海证券交易所上证路演中心 地点 线上：http://roadshow.sseinfo.com 上市公司接 董事长王志根先生；总会计师王雪萍先生；副总经理徐进先生，独立董事 待人员姓名 黄国良先生；董事会秘书戴斐先生及部分职能部门负责人。 投资者关系活动主要内容摘要 新集能源 2023 年度业绩暨现金分红说明会 2023年，公司生产原煤 2139.99万吨、生产商品煤 1936.91万吨，销售商品煤 1968.61 万吨；2023 年，公司累计发电 104.79 亿度（含瓦斯发电），上网电量 98.95 亿度，其中 利辛电厂发电103.93 亿度，上网售电量98.72 亿度。 2023 年，公司实现营业收入 128.45 亿元，实现利润总额 34. ...

2. 境外资产情况 升和量的合理增长，加大宏观调控力度，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险， 我国经济回升向好，国内生产总值超过 126 万亿元，增长 5.2%，高质量发展扎实推进，现代化产 业体系建设取得重要进展，科技创新实现新的突破，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯 实，民生保障有力有效，全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐。 2024 年，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中全会精神，按照中央经济工作会议部署，经 济增长预期目标为 5%左右，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快 构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，全面深化改革开放，推动高水平科技自立自强，加大宏 观调控力度，统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，统筹新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，统筹高 质量发展和高水平安全，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回 升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，增进民生福祉，保持社会稳定， 以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业。 2.行业竞争格局 从煤炭行业来看，近年来，在应对气候变化和地缘博弈的大背景下，全球能源安全面临持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price suggesting a potential upside of 15% or more relative to the benchmark index within 6 months [13][10] Core Views - The company's coal-power integration strategy has demonstrated resilience, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 12.84 billion, a 7.01% YoY increase, and net profit of RMB 2.109 billion, up 1.57% YoY [8] - The company's coal business achieved revenue of RMB 10.85 billion, up 8.96% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 3.95 billion, a 1.94% increase [28] - The power segment generated revenue of RMB 4.06 billion, down 3.03% YoY, with gross profit of RMB 920 million, a 2.5% decrease [9] Financial Performance - 2023 coal production was 21.4 million tons, down 3.76% YoY, while commercial coal sales reached 19.69 million tons, up 8.7% YoY [9] - The company's comprehensive coal price was RMB 551/ton, up 0.2% YoY, with a cost of RMB 351/ton, up 5% YoY, resulting in a gross margin of RMB 200/ton, down 7.1% [9] - Power generation in 2023 was 10.48 billion kWh, down 2.6% YoY, with an average grid price of RMB 0.4098/kWh, up 0.4% [9] Growth Prospects - The company has a total coal-power installed capacity of 3,290MW, with an equity capacity of 1,732MW, and is constructing the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant with 1,320MW capacity [10] - Future projects include Shangrao, Chuzhou, and Liuan power plants, totaling 7,250MW in planned capacity [10] - The company plans to distribute RMB 389 million in cash dividends for 2023, representing a payout ratio of 18.4% [10] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 12.845 billion in 2023 to RMB 17.001 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.8% [12] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.109 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.082 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.5% [12] - The P/E ratio is forecast to decline from 9.8x in 2023 to 6.7x in 2026, while the P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.5x to 1.0x over the same period [12] Valuation - The company's current market capitalization is RMB 20.698 billion, with a share price of RMB 7.99 as of March 20, 2024 [13] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 6.6x in 2023 to 5.3x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [23]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|------------------------------------| | 投资建议评级标准 | | 评级 \n推荐 | 说明 \n相对基准指数涨幅 15% 以上 | | 以报告发布日后的 12 个月内公司股价（或行业 | | 谨慎推荐 | 相对基准指数涨幅 5%～15% 之间 | | 指数）相对同期基准指数的涨跌幅为基准。其 | 公司评级 | 中性 | 相对基准指数涨幅 -5%～5% 之间 | | 中： A 股以沪深 300 指数为基准；新三板以三 板成指或三板做市指数为基准；港股以恒生指 | | 回避 | 相对基准指数跌幅 5% 以上 | | 数为基准；美股以纳斯达克综合指数或标普 | | 推荐 | 相对基准指数涨幅 5% 以上 | | 500 指数为基准。 | 行业评级 | 中性 | 相对基准指数涨幅-5%～5% ...

> 开源证券 煤炭/煤炭开采 2024 年 03 月 21 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-----------| | 日期 | 2024/3/20 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 7.99 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 8.39/4.04 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 206.98 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 206.98 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 25.91 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 25.91 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 119.28 | 全年业绩稳健，煤电一体化成长空间大 新集能源（601918.SH） 投资评级：增持（维持） -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 新集能源 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《煤质提升致售价上涨，煤电一体化 构建盈利稳定—公司三季报点评报 告》-2023.10.23 《Q2 量价齐升&热值提升，煤电一体 化构建盈利稳定—公司中报点评报 告》-2023.8.28 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of March 21, 2024 [15][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 12.84 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its high long-term contract coal ratio and improved coal quality, which mitigates the impact of market coal price fluctuations [5][19]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in power generation capacity, with a projected output of 11.5 billion kWh in 2024, reflecting a commitment to expanding its integrated coal and power operations [7][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 16.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year [3][20]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [4]. Coal Business - The company produced 19.37 million tons of commercial coal in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with sales reaching 19.69 million tons, up 8.7% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling price of coal remained stable at 585 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year increase despite a general market price decline [5]. - The total cost per ton of coal rose to 308 yuan, a 12.1% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor and electricity costs [5]. Power Generation Business - The company generated 10.39 billion kWh of electricity in 2023, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.4109 yuan per kWh, down 0.3% year-on-year [7]. - The report projects a significant increase in power generation capacity, with plans for new power plants that will enhance the company's self-sufficiency in coal supply [19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 12% year-on-year growth, with EPS projected to rise to 0.91 yuan [20]. - The anticipated increase in integrated operations and stable coal quality is expected to enhance profitability and reduce earnings volatility [19].

国投证券研究中心 林祎楠 联系人 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450122070049 linyn@essence.com.cn 朱心怡 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450523060001 zhuxy@essence.com.cn 朱昕怡 联系人 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450122100043 zhuxy1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 煤电联营，稳中求进 2024-01-22 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报/新集能源 度上降低了电厂的用煤成本。结合已披露的火电板块毛利水平及 火电发电量计算，公司 2023 年度电毛利实现 0.0890 元/千瓦时。 加快推进火电项目进度，装后机成长空间可观。公司有 4 个在 建及筹建火电项目，据年报中提到的 2024 年经营计划，公司将加 快推进火电项目进度，确保板集电厂二期 2024 年达标投产；上 饶电厂、滁州电厂一季度正式开工建设，六安电厂上半年正式开 工建设。上饶、滁州以及六安项目按火电建设周期计算，有望于 2026 年实现并网。 投资建议：买入-A ...

分析师： 刘贵军 煤电一体化继续推进，业绩稳健助力估值提升。根据公司发展战略，公 司将继续建设新型煤电一体化基地。目前正在筹备建设上饶电厂、滁州电厂、 六安电厂，煤炭消耗量约占公司产量 40%左右，煤电一体化的协同优势继续 发挥。同时，板集煤矿开工，未来煤炭产能和电力装机同步提升，将进一步 提高公司的盈利能力和抗风险能力，在央企市值管理纳入考核背景下，公司 估值或将进一步提高。 财务数据与估值： 会计年度 2022A 2023A 2024E 2026E 会计年度 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 流动资产 3317 3137 3834 7207 营业收入 12003 12845 13100 13548 14040 现金 1406 1635 1883 5133 营业成本 6913 7750 7947 8273 8634 应收票据及应收账款 1169 859 1210 1287 营业税金及附加 419 421 443 451 471 预付账款 39 28 41 43 营业费用 59 58 62 63 66 存货 344 298 360 390 管理费用 790 779 828 839 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinji Energy (601918 SH) [4][10] Core Views - Xinji Energy achieved steady growth in 2023 with a 7 01% YoY increase in revenue and 1 57% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [13] - The company's power business showed stable profitability with a 22 8% gross margin in 2023, up 0 12 percentage points YoY [1] - Coal business faced cost pressures but achieved a 90 5% coal washing rate, the highest in six years [3] - Future growth is expected from the company's power projects under construction, with a total installed capacity of 5960MW and equity capacity of 3874MW [14] Financial Performance Power Business - In 2023, Xinji Energy generated 103 93 billion kWh of electricity, a 2 67% YoY decrease, with 98 72 billion kWh sold to the grid, down 2 78% YoY [1] - The average selling price of electricity was 0 4109 yuan/kWh, up 0 65% YoY, while the cost per kWh decreased by 0 41% to 0 3172 yuan/kWh [1] - The gross profit per kWh increased by 4 42% to 0 0937 yuan/kWh [1] Coal Business - In 2023, the company produced 21 40 million tons of raw coal, down 3 76% YoY, and sold 19 69 million tons of commercial coal, up 8 70% YoY [3] - The average selling price of commercial coal was 446 4 yuan/ton, up 3 39% YoY, while the cost per ton increased by 15 50% to 234 6 yuan/ton [3] - The gross profit per ton of commercial coal decreased by 7 36% to 211 8 yuan/ton [3] Future Outlook - The company's coal-power synergy is expected to deepen, with self-produced coal covering 52%, 85%, and 100% of power plant coal consumption in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow to 2 44 billion yuan in 2024, 2 63 billion yuan in 2025, and 3 15 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - The PE ratio is projected to be 8 5x, 7 9x, and 6 6x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin was 39 7% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 18 7% and ROE of 15 6% [6] - EPS is expected to increase from 0 81 yuan in 2023 to 1 22 yuan in 2026 [6] - Operating cash flow per share is projected to grow from 1 47 yuan in 2023 to 3 14 yuan in 2026 [6]