证券研究报告 | 2025年04月29日 光环新网（300383.SZ） 无评级 数据中心资源丰富；积极拓展智算领域，有望受益 AI 发展 风险提示：AI 发展不及预期、数据中心投入不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 投资建议：预计公司 2025-2027 年收入分别为 74.23/78.55/84.07 亿元，归 母净利润分别为 3.94/4.43/5.16 亿元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 60/54/46X， 对应 EV/EBITDA 分别为 20.2/17.7/15.9X，首次覆盖，推荐关注。 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 通信·通信服务 | 证券分析师：袁文翀 | 证券分析师：徐文辉 | | --- | --- | | 021-60375411 | 021-60375426 | | yuanwenchong@guosen.com.cn | xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523110003 | S0980524030001 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 无评级 | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 13.65 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 24537/24 ...

Group 1: Business Development and Strategy - The company has deployed high-performance intelligent computing centers in Beijing and Tianjin, with plans to complete centers in Changsha and Hangzhou by 2025 to meet the growing demand for AI model computing power [2][3] - The company launched high-performance computing services in August 2023, with a current computing capacity exceeding 4,000P, and aims to enhance its data center infrastructure to support digital economy growth [4] - The company plans to build additional computing centers in Inner Mongolia and Hohhot in 2025, expanding its service offerings in AI model deployment [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.60 RMB per 10 shares, totaling approximately 107.86 million RMB, based on a total share capital of 1,797,592,847 shares [5][10] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 728.12 million RMB, a decrease of 7.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 38.14 million RMB, down 1.68% [8][11] - The company has distributed a total of approximately 287.61 million RMB in dividends over the past three years, representing 75% of its average net profit during that period [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The IDC market in China is experiencing oversupply due to new infrastructure policies, leading to intensified competition [6][7] - The intelligent computing center market size reached 87.9 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 26.8% from 2023 to 2028 [7] - The company faces challenges due to the expiration of specific operational assets related to Amazon cloud services, which impacted profits in Q1 2025 by approximately 63.09 million RMB [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.281 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.31%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 381 million yuan, showing a decline of 1.68% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.832 billion yuan, an increase of 7.41%, but the net profit dropped significantly by 57.82% to 69 million yuan [1] - The company is accelerating its data center business delivery, focusing on high-performance intelligent computing services across various regions in China [1] Data Center Market - The Chinese data center market is projected to reach approximately 277.3 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to grow to 318 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The company has invested in the construction of data center projects in Inner Mongolia and has initiated the construction of the Tianjin Baodi Phase III project [1] - The company has planned a cabinet scale of over 230,000 units nationwide, with more than 59,000 cabinets already in operation [1] Cloud Computing and AI Focus - Amazon Cloud Technology's revenue from cloud computing services increased to 70.07% in 2024, driven by continuous investment and technological upgrades [2] - The company has established a comprehensive localized service system in the Beijing region, launching nearly 500 new features or services [2] - The company is recognized as a top-level consulting partner of Amazon Cloud Technology, holding various certifications to implement automated services based on Amazon's public cloud [2] Future Profit Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 395 million yuan, 432 million yuan, and 494 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 3.45%, 9.38%, and 14.52% [3] - The company's IDC business is steadily expanding, and the AI-driven growth in cloud computing is expected to improve long-term performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is accelerating its data center business delivery and providing high-performance intelligent computing services, with significant investments in various regions including Inner Mongolia and Tianjin [5]. - The cloud computing service revenue is expected to increase, driven by continuous investment and technological upgrades, with a projected revenue share of 70.07% in 2024 [5]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.95 billion, 4.32 billion, and 4.94 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 62.41, 57.06, and 49.82 [5]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 72.81 billion, 76.48 billion, 83.38 billion, and 92.45 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -7.31%, 5.03%, 9.02%, and 10.88% [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 3.81 billion, 3.95 billion, 4.32 billion, and 4.94 billion yuan, with growth rates of -1.68%, 3.45%, 9.38%, and 14.52% [2][7]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to be 16.55%, 16.50%, 16.70%, and 16.90% for the years 2024 to 2027 [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.21, 0.22, 0.24, and 0.27 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027 [2][7]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The PE ratios are forecasted to be 64.56, 62.41, 57.06, and 49.82 for the years 2024 to 2027 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be stable, but the first quarter of 2025 is impacted by the expiration and disposal of Amazon's operational assets, leading to a decrease in revenue and net profit [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.281 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 381 million yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 69.17 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - In 2024, the IDC and value-added services revenue was 2.089 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.4%, a decline of 1.35 percentage points [2] - The cloud computing and related services revenue was 5.102 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 9%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points [2] IDC and Resource Planning - The company has a rich IDC reserve, with a total planned capacity that is 3.9 times the currently operational capacity [3] - The company is expanding its data center business in key regions and has initiated the construction of the Tianjin Baodi Phase III project [3] Computing Power Leasing - The company has launched high-performance computing services, with a computing power scale exceeding 4000P, and plans to expand further into Hainan and Malaysia [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Due to the impact of Amazon's asset disposal on cloud business, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 367 million yuan, 457 million yuan, and 551 million yuan respectively [5] - The company maintains a strong resource position in core areas and is expected to benefit from increasing AI computing demand, hence the "Accumulate" rating is upheld [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be stable, but the first quarter of 2025 is impacted by the expiration of Amazon's operational assets, leading to a decrease in revenue and net profit [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.281 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 381 million yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 69.17 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to increased supply in data centers leading to lower IDC rental prices and the impact of Amazon's asset disposal [1] Business Performance - In 2024, the IDC and value-added services revenue was 2.089 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.4%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points [2] - The cloud computing and related services revenue was 5.102 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 9%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points [2] IDC and Resource Planning - The company has a rich reserve of IDC resources, with a total planned capacity of 3.9 times the currently operational units [3] - The company is expanding its IDC business in key regions and has initiated the construction of new projects in Tianjin [3] Computing Power Leasing - The company has launched high-performance computing services, with a current scale exceeding 4000P, and plans to expand further into Hainan and Malaysia [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Due to the impact of Amazon's asset disposal on cloud business, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 367 million yuan, 457 million yuan, and 551 million yuan respectively [5] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing demand for AI computing power and improved utilization rates in its IDC business, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.28 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.38 billion yuan, down 1.68% year-on-year [3]. - The IDC business is expanding steadily, with over 23,000 planned cabinets nationwide and more than 59,000 cabinets in operation as of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company is actively pursuing green initiatives, achieving energy savings of approximately 64.8 million KWH in 2024 and installing solar systems with a capacity of nearly 2,500 KW [4]. - The integration of AI is expected to enhance operational efficiency, although the cloud computing business saw a revenue decline of 11.41% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 7.66 billion, 8.23 billion, and 8.90 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 0.42 billion, 0.46 billion, and 0.49 billion yuan [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.38 billion yuan and a decrease in net profit margin [3][11]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.83 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit to 0.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.8% year-on-year decline [3]. IDC Business Expansion - The company is expanding its IDC operations in key regions, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta areas [4]. - The IDC business gross margin was reported at 34.12%, influenced by increased competition and a decline in rental prices [4]. Green Initiatives - The company has implemented energy-saving measures and is developing renewable energy projects, contributing to its commitment to low-carbon operations [4]. AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI technologies to enhance its service offerings, although it faces challenges in cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5]. Future Projections - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow in the coming years, with a projected PE ratio of 57, 52, and 49 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7].

2025 年 4 月 21 日 公司研究 多重优势助力公司成长 ——光环新网（300383.SZ）跟踪报告之二 要点 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业收入 72.81 亿元， 同比下降 7.31%；实现归母净利润 3.81 亿元，同比下降 1.68%。2025 年一季 度，公司实现营业收入 18.32 亿元，同比下降 7.41%；实现归母净利润 0.69 亿 元，同比下降 57.82%。主要原因是受供需失衡影响导致竞争加剧、价格下降。 持续推进互联网数据中心业务。公司在京津冀、长三角及中西部地区开展互联网 数据中心业务，持续为当地客户提供 IDC 及增值服务。2024 年公司进一步拓展 业务半径，在内蒙古地区投资建设和林格尔智算中心项目和呼和浩特算力基地。 2025 年 4 月公司进一步释放在天津宝坻地区的资源储备，正式启动天津宝坻三 期项目建设工作。按照单机柜 4.4KW 统计，公司在全国范围内规划机柜规模已 超过 23 万个，截至 2025 年 4 月已投产机柜超过 5.9 万个。公司积极推进各地 数据中心建设和资源交付进度，持续加大市场营销力度，提升服务品质，截 ...

Group 1: Project Delivery and Development - The Tianjin Baodi project is expected to complete its first and second phases by mid-2025, with revenue generation starting thereafter [1][2] - The company has acquired 368 acres of industrial land in Tianjin Baodi for the third phase, which has received energy consumption indicators and will be developed based on market demand [2][3] - The overall planning for the Tianjin Phase III project is 140 MW, while the Inner Mongolia and Hohhot projects are planned for 63 MW and 100 MW respectively [4][5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Pricing - The current market supply-demand relationship shows no significant changes, with considerable price pressure [3][4] - Demand primarily comes from leading internet companies and cloud service providers, with competitive pressure leading to lower prices [4] - The rental price for computing power has decreased by 30-40% compared to the same period last year [5] Group 3: Energy Efficiency and Sustainability - The company is focusing on green energy requirements for data centers, utilizing solar systems in various locations to meet these demands [5] - The average energy utilization efficiency and renewable energy utilization rates are being improved in response to national policies promoting low-carbon development [2][3] Group 4: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company's cloud computing business is expected to be impacted by the disposal of assets related to Amazon, with an estimated profit reduction of approximately 100 million due to this [4] - The subsidiary Kexin Shencai reported losses due to client strategy adjustments leading to decreased revenue [4]

Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a slight decline in revenue, with total operating income of 7,281,210,349.39 yuan, down 7.31% from 2023's 7,855,463,201.81 yuan, indicating pressure in core business areas and a need for structural optimization [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.68% to 381,444,821.85 yuan from 387,958,854.70 yuan in 2023, highlighting the need for improved profitability despite a small decline [3] - The company's net profit after excluding non-recurring items fell by 7.43% to 346,380,452.97 yuan, indicating significant challenges in core business profitability [4] - Basic earnings per share decreased by 4.55% to 0.21 yuan from 0.22 yuan in 2023, reflecting reduced shareholder returns [5] - The diluted earnings per share also declined, further emphasizing the need to enhance core competitiveness [6] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 7.58% to 40,563,140.37 yuan, indicating greater investment in market expansion to address competition [7] - Management expenses grew slightly by 2.78% to 270,973,314.82 yuan, suggesting stable operational management costs [8] - Financial expenses saw a significant decrease of 61.65% to 83,464,811.80 yuan, primarily due to the repayment of all dollar loans, alleviating debt pressure [9] - R&D expenses rose by 14.98% to 293,242,271.43 yuan, reflecting a commitment to technological innovation [10] Cash Flow Insights - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 19.3% to 1,311,614,092.43 yuan, indicating weakened cash generation capabilities [13] - The net cash flow from investing activities was negative at -2,384,425,402.17 yuan, a substantial decline due to increased investment in data center construction and intelligent computing projects [14] - The net cash flow from financing activities turned positive at 335,559,543.52 yuan, a recovery from -1,531,964,553.36 yuan in 2023, due to successful fundraising efforts [15] R&D and Personnel Analysis - The number of R&D personnel decreased to 309 from 381, with a reduction in master's degree holders, which may impact innovation capabilities [11] - R&D investment as a percentage of operating income increased to 4.03% from 3.25%, focusing on energy efficiency and intelligent operations in core business areas [12] Risk Factors - The company faces risks related to scale expansion, including increased operational costs and management complexity [16] - Financing risks are present due to rising bank loan amounts, increasing overall financing costs [17] - Compliance risks arise from stricter national energy-saving policies, which could affect project delivery [19] - Operational cost risks are heightened by rising costs associated with energy-saving initiatives and insufficient capacity release [20] - Industry competition risks are exacerbated by oversupply in the IDC market, leading to price wars [21] - Accounts receivable risks are increasing, with a 4.68% rise in accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets [22] - Potential goodwill impairment risks exist due to market competition and operational performance of acquired entities [23] Management Compensation - The chairman received a pre-tax compensation of 1.488 million yuan, linked to company performance [24] - The general manager's pre-tax compensation was 1.5025 million yuan, aimed at incentivizing business development [25] - Vice presidents received varying compensation based on their roles and contributions, ranging from 805,100 to 1,186,800 yuan [26] - The financial director received 1.0068 million yuan, ensuring financial stability for the company [27] Conclusion and Outlook - The company faces challenges in revenue and net profit, with significant declines in cash flow from operations [28] - There are various risks related to scale expansion, financing, and compliance that need to be managed effectively for sustainable growth [28]