Equity Research Report Wens Foodstuffs (300498 CH) Rise in Meat Pig Selling Price Beat Average; Per-Head Profit Leading Huatai ResearchAnnouncement Comment 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland)Agribusiness Meat pig per-head profit neared RMB600 in July Wens Foodstuffs (Wens) saw sustained rises in pig and broiler output in July, with the selling price of meat pigs at RMB18.95/kg, above the industry average. We estimate its meat pig per-head profit at nearly RMB600. Given a potential contraction in hog supply in ...

证券所究报告 滙氏嚴份 (300498 CH) 南辖青价涨幅超行业,头均盈利优款骚 牟 养 研究소备点评 2024 年８月０7 日 | 中国内地农林牧渔 7 月 內辦头均量利成近 600 元，24H2 辦為承汽有望共振向好 公司 7 月猪、鸡出栏持续增查，肉猪售价 18.95 先/公斤、优千行业予均， 体算肉猪实现头均盈利近 600 元。24H2 生猪供应或持续收缩、美鸡前期产 能去化改美文供应趋紧，歪力季节性消费旺季渐近，下半年猪、鸡亲久有望 共振向好，有望带动公司盈利持续提升。我们预计公司 24/25/26 年归导净 利润分别为 100/134/131 亿元，对应 BVPS 分别为 6.48/8.29/10.16 元，参 考可比公司 Wind 一致预期 2024 年 3.46X PB，考虑到公司成本优势稳固， 维持公司 2024 年 3.94 倍 PB，目标价 25.53 元，维持"买入"详级。 肉兼眷价涨桶超行业，头均量利成近 600 无 7 月公司内猪出栏网比特续增查、售价优于行业予均，我们估算肉猪头均盈 利永近 600 无：肉鸡增查，但价格有所下滑。1）生猪：7 月 销售肉 猪 232 万头（阿比+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable value set at 26.73 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 17 times for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - In July, the company experienced a steady year-on-year growth in pig sales, with an estimated profit of approximately 600 CNY per pig. The company sold 2.3233 million pigs in July, a decrease of 0.39% month-on-month but an increase of 9.02% year-on-year, generating revenue of 5.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51.19% [1][2]. - The average selling price for pigs was 18.95 CNY per kilogram, with an average weight of 121.36 kilograms, reflecting a 1.5% decrease month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to July, the company sold 16.7 million pigs, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.98% [1][2]. - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs, with comprehensive breeding costs dropping to 14.2 CNY per kilogram as of May. The number of breeding sows as of the end of April was 1.57 million, an increase of 20,000 from March [1][2]. - Chicken sales also saw a month-on-month increase in July, with the company selling 9.7 million chickens, a 5.2% increase from the previous month and a 2.77% increase year-on-year, generating revenue of 2.627 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1][2]. - The estimated profit per chicken exceeded 2 CNY, with cumulative chicken sales from January to July totaling 645 million, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report suggests that breeding profits may exceed expectations due to a combination of rising pig prices and declining costs, with the industry benefiting from a widening "scissors gap" between rising prices and falling costs [1][2]. - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.57, 1.91, and 2.55 CNY per share, respectively [1][2].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、2024年7月份鸡产品销售情况 1、温氏食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024年7 月销售肉鸡9,730.23万只（含毛鸡、鲜品和熟食），收入26.27亿元， 毛鸡销售均价13.20元/公斤，环比变动分别为5.20%、0.08%、 -3.51%，同比变动分别为2.77%、0.42%、-1.86%。 温氏食品集团股份有限公司 | 证券代码：300498 | 证券简称：温氏股份 | 公告编号：2024-88 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：123107 | 债券简称：温氏转债 | | 温氏食品集团股份有限公司 2024年7月主产品销售情况简报 | 月份 | | | 肉鸡销量（万只） | | | 销售收入（亿元） | 毛鸡价格（元/公斤） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 当月 | 当年累计 | 当月 | 当年累计 | 当月 | | 2023 | 年 7 | 月 | 9,468.17 | 64, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Insights - The profitability level of the company is recovering, with a strong turnaround in Q2 2024, achieving a net profit of 24.86-27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 228.1-241.0% [3] - The decline in breeding costs for pigs and chickens is significant, leading to improved profit margins [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain high pig prices in the second half of 2024, supported by seasonal demand for chicken [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.5-15.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 126.7-132.0% [3] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 24.86-27.36 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 228.1-241.0% [3] Breeding Operations - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a pig output of 14.3742 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, with an average selling price of 15.32 yuan/kg, up 5.10% [4] - The comprehensive cost of pig breeding decreased from 7.8-7.9 yuan/kg in January 2024 to 7.1 yuan/kg in May 2024, contributing to improved profitability [4] Chicken Operations - The company sold 548 million chickens in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 1.04%, with an average selling price of 13.29 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.51% [5] - The cost of chicken breeding dropped from 6.5 yuan/kg in January 2024 to 6.0 yuan/kg in May 2024, indicating a potential for increased profitability [5][6] Debt and Cash Flow - The company is expected to improve its operating cash flow significantly, with a capital debt ratio of 63.47% as of Q1 2024, which is anticipated to decrease as the company uses surplus cash flow to repay debts [6] Revenue Forecast - The company projects revenues of 1090.78 billion yuan, 1241.02 billion yuan, and 1318.33 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.42, 1.87, and 1.72 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 to 1.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, recovering from a loss of 4.689 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to yield a net profit of 2.486 to 2.736 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.94 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating a significant turnaround [2][3]. - The company has a robust pig farming capacity with approximately 46 million heads of breeding stock and an effective fattening capacity of about 35 million heads, which is expected to support steady growth in output [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.25 to 1.5 billion yuan for H1 2024, a significant improvement from a loss of 4.689 billion yuan in H1 2023 [2]. - For Q2 2024, the expected net profit is between 2.486 and 2.736 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.94 billion yuan in Q2 2023 [2][3]. - The average profit per fattened pig is estimated to be around 220 to 240 yuan, with the total cost of pig farming at approximately 14.5 yuan/kg [2][3]. Production and Cost Management - The company has improved its breeding performance, with the average number of piglets per litter increasing to 11.3 and the survival rate of piglets at about 93% [4]. - The cost of piglets has decreased to around 330 yuan per head, down by 60 yuan from December 2023, which is expected to positively impact future costs of market pigs [4]. - The company has maintained a steady decline in costs for both pig and chicken farming, benefiting from lower feed prices and improved production management [3][4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - In 2023, the company sold 1.183 billion chickens, a year-on-year increase of 9.51%, capturing 9.1% of the national market share for meat chickens [6]. - The company plans to increase chicken sales by 5% to 10% in 2024, indicating a stable growth trajectory [6]. - The company has developed nine approved breeds of yellow feathered chickens, enhancing its competitive edge in the poultry market [6].

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 温氏股份 农林牧渔 -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 2023-07 2023-09 2023-12 2024-02 2024-05 2024-07 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价(元) 20.38 总股本/流通股本(亿股)66.53 / 54.38 总市值/流通市值(亿元)1,356 / 1,108 52 周内最高/最低价 22.34 / 16.51 资产负债率(%) 61.4% 市盈率 -21.00 第一大股东 温鹏程 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 温氏股份(300498) 成本降速超预期,Q2 业绩大幅好转 ⚫ 事件: 公司发布 2024 年中期业绩预告,实现归母净利润 12.5-15 亿元, 去年同期为亏损 46.89 亿元。其中二季度单季实现归母净利为 24.86- 27.36 亿元。公司二季度大幅盈利,主因猪价上行及成本快速下降。 ⚫ 点评:猪周期向好,公司降本速度快 生猪:量增价涨成本 ...

温[Ta氏ble股_Sto份ckN(ameRptType] 300498) 公司点评 [Table_Title] Q2 同环比扭亏为盈,畜禽成本稳步回落 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|-----------| | [T投a资ble评_R级an:k] | 买入(维持) | 主要观点: | | 报告日期: | 2024-07-16 | | | [收Ta盘bl价e_(Ba元se)Data] | 20.38 | | | 近12个月最高/最低(元) | 22.39/16.3 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 6,653 | | | 流通股本(百万股) | 5,438 | | | 流通股比例(%) | 81.7 | | | 总市值(亿元) | 1356 | | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1108 | | | [公Ta司ble价_C格ha与rt]沪深300 | 走势比较 | | 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩预告:归母净利润 12.5 亿元-15 亿元,扣 非后归母净利润 13 亿元-15.5 亿元,同比扭亏为盈。分季 ...

证券研究报告 温氏股份 (300498 CH) 猪鸡共振+成本改善,24Q2 强势扭亏 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 25.53 华泰研究 公告点评 2024 年 7 月 16 日│中国内地 农业综合 Q2 强势扭亏,公司养猪头均盈利排名前列 公司发布 24H1 业绩预告,预计 24H1 实现归母净利润 12.5~15.0 亿元,其 中 Q2 预计实现归母净利 24.9~27.4 亿元、同环比扭亏。考虑到公司成本加 速下降,我们上调公司 2024 年盈利预测至 100 亿元,维持 2025、2026 年 盈利预测不变,对应公司 24/25/26 年 BVPS 分别为 6.48/8.29/10.16 元,参 考可比公司 Wind 一致预期 3.55X PB,考虑到公司成本优势稳固,给予公 司 2024 年 3.94 倍 PB,维持"买入"评级。 猪鸡共振+成本改善,Q2 归母净利润同环比扭亏 生猪、黄鸡价格上涨及公司养殖成本稳步拓潜是温氏 24Q2 扭亏、并带动 24H1 整体扭亏的主因。拆分来看,我们估算 Q2 公司养猪盈利约 17~19 亿 元,对应养猪完全成本约 14.2~14.7 元/公 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|养殖业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 温氏股份(300498.SZ) 上半年实现扭亏为盈,畜禽养殖成本下降超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 24 年上半年实现扭亏为盈,业绩表现超出市场预期。公司发布 2024 年上半年业绩预告,上半年公司实现归母净利润 12.5-15.0 亿元,同比 扭亏;扣非后净利润为 13.0-15.5 亿元,同比扭亏。单 2 季度,公司实 现归母净利润 24.9-27.4 亿元,同比扭亏,上半年公司实现扭亏为盈主 要源于 2 季度畜禽价格明显回暖以及养殖成本下降超预期。 ⚫ 生猪:养殖成本下降超预期,母猪产能保持增长。24 年上半年,公司 肉猪出栏量(含毛猪和鲜品)为 1437.4 万头,同比增长 21.96%;销 售均价为 15.32 元/公斤,同比上涨 5.09%;其中单 2 季度,公司出栏 肉猪 719.4 万头,同比增长 16.22%;估算头均利润为 250-280 元/头。 公司养殖生产持续向好,2 季度养殖成本下降超市场预期,根据投资者 关系活动记录表,5 月公司猪苗成本下降至 330 元/头,养殖综合成 ...