Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3% to 760 million yuan [5][6] - The new factory's ramp-up is impacting profit margins, with the gross margin declining by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to initial production challenges [6] - The company is expanding its customer base with new clients like Adidas and New Balance, which are expected to drive sales growth and increase average transaction value [6][7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 56.14 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 65.5 billion yuan [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.98 [10] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.13 billion yuan, 4.72 billion yuan, and 5.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [7][10]

Market Outlook - The global athletic shoe market is expected to continue its stable growth over the next 5 to 10 years, driven by consumer demand for comfort and health-oriented lifestyles [2][5] - Emerging markets have significant potential for growth in athletic shoe penetration compared to developed regions like the US and Europe [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant increase in new customer orders, particularly from brands like Adidas and New Balance, contributing to revenue growth [3][6] - The gross margin has seen a decline due to the initial inefficiencies of new factories and the onboarding of new employees, which is expected to improve as operations stabilize [3][9] Production and Capacity - The company is currently in a production peak season with full order books and no significant cancellations reported [5][9] - New factories are being established in Vietnam and Indonesia, with the latter expected to have a capacity of over 60 million pairs annually, starting production in mid-2024 [8] Strategic Partnerships - The company is actively pursuing partnerships with emerging brands and has already begun collaboration with Asics [3][4] - There is a focus on automating production processes to enhance efficiency and reduce reliance on skilled labor [3][7] Risk Management - The company is monitoring the impact of potential tariff changes on its operations in Southeast Asia and has prepared various response strategies [9] - Despite uncertainties in the global trade environment, the company plans to maintain its investment pace in production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has successfully advanced its new brand collaborations, with Q1 2025 revenue growth meeting expectations [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [7] - The company continues to deepen cooperation with new clients and emerging sports brands, with sales of sports shoes reaching 49 million pairs, up 8.24% year-on-year [7] - The company has a strong dividend policy, distributing 2.3 RMB per share (including tax) for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of approximately 70% of net profit [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity to meet downstream demand, with two new shoe factories starting operations in Q1 2025, increasing the workforce to 184,000, a year-on-year increase of 17% [7] - The growth in orders is driven by increased consumer demand in the sports industry and deeper collaborations with brands like Adidas [7] - The company is expected to see a rise in average selling price (ASP) due to structural changes in its client base [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 3.2 billion RMB - 2024: 3.84 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of approximately 21% over the forecast period [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% due to the impact of new factory ramp-up on profitability [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up take effect, with long-term optimism regarding new customer volume and increased market share from existing customers [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, with a volume increase of 8.24% and a price increase of 3.8%. The gross margin was 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points due to initial training periods for new employees at new factories [7][8] - The company plans to accelerate the construction of new factories to meet the growing demand from new customers, with two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan launched in Q1 2025, and further expansions planned in Vietnam and Indonesia [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 times [7][9] Operational Capability - As of Q1 2025, the company had a net operating cash flow of 1.21 billion yuan, with inventory at 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable at 3.31 billion yuan, indicating a stable operational capability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced significant new customer growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.2% to 760 million yuan due to the initial efficiency challenges of new factories [7][8] - The report anticipates improved gross margins in Q2 2025 as scale effects and new factory ramp-up contribute positively. Long-term prospects remain optimistic due to the expansion of new customer orders and increased market share from existing clients [7][8] Financial Summary - Q1 2025 revenue: 5.35 billion yuan (YoY +12.3%) - Q1 2025 net profit: 760 million yuan (YoY -3.2%) - Q1 2025 gross margin: 22.9% (down 5.5 percentage points) - Q1 2025 net profit margin: 14.2% (down 2.3 percentage points) [7][8] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 4.1 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively [7] Operational Insights - Q1 2025 sales volume: 49 million pairs (YoY +8.24%), with an average price of 109 yuan per pair (YoY +3.8%) [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of new factories to meet the rising demand from new clients such as Adidas and New Balance, with plans to open two new factories in Indonesia and Sichuan in Q1 2025 [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company employed 184,000 people, a 17% increase YoY, with expectations of a slowdown in hiring in Q2 2025 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027: 27.66 billion, 31.68 billion, and 36.18 billion yuan respectively [9] - Expected net profit margins for 2025-2027: 14.8%, 15.0%, and 15.2% respectively [9] - P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 16.1, 13.8, and 12.0 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a net profit growth of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [2] - The company is experiencing stable orders with short-term profit margins affected by the ramp-up of new factories, but overall performance is in line with expectations [2] - The company has successfully launched new factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China to meet the growing demand, with two new shoe factories already operational in Q1 2025 [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.90%, down 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories [3] - The company is expected to gradually restore its profitability as new factories improve operational efficiency through optimized training mechanisms and the deployment of smart production equipment [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.34% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, down 3.25% [2] Operational Analysis - The company sold 49 million pairs of sports shoes in Q1 2025, marking an 8.24% year-on-year increase, with a slight growth in average selling price (ASP) [3] - The company’s gross margin was impacted by new factory ramp-ups, but the net profit margin was 14.26%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market and Client Dynamics - The company is less affected by tariffs due to its Southeast Asian factories using a processing model and local sourcing of over 50% of raw materials in Vietnam [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new client orders, particularly from Adidas, as it continues to expand its customer base despite slower growth from major clients like Nike [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 760 million yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a year-on-year revenue growth of 12% but a decline in net profit by 3% [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.35 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year; net profit was 760 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 750 million yuan, also down 3% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to the ramp-up of new factories, with expectations for improvement in Q2 2025 [1][3] - The company’s net profit margin fell by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in Q1 2025 [1] Sales and Orders - Q1 2025 saw a significant increase in new customer orders, with stable orders from existing clients [2] - The company maintained deep cooperation with major brands like Nike and Adidas, with expectations for a 15%+ revenue growth in 2025 driven by new customer orders [2][4] Capacity Expansion - The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion, with a total capacity of 229 million pairs and a utilization rate of 97% in 2024 [2] - Four new factories were launched in 2024, with two more in Q1 2025, indicating a potential CAGR of 15% in production from 2025 to 2026 [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained high production management efficiency, with a gross margin of 26.8% in 2024, although recent factory openings have temporarily affected margins [3] - Cash flow management appears stable, with inventory increasing by 12.5% year-on-year to 3.67 billion yuan and accounts receivable turnover days increasing by 2 days to 64.7 days [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to continue expanding rapidly in 2025, with net profit projected to grow in the mid-single digits due to ongoing efficiency improvements in new factories [4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.11 billion, 4.76 billion, and 5.49 billion yuan, respectively, with a PE ratio of 16 times for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a net profit growth of 44.23 billion, 50.74 billion, and 57.92 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times respectively [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [2] - The company is experiencing stable orders with short-term profit margins affected by the ramp-up of new factories, but overall performance is in line with expectations [2] - The company is benefiting from a strong customer base, particularly with new clients like Adidas, which is expected to drive growth despite challenges in the broader market [4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.34% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million RMB, down 3.25% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 751 million RMB, also down 3.35% [2] Operational Analysis - The company sold 49 million pairs of sports shoes in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.24% year-on-year, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) contributing to order growth. New customer orders have significantly increased, particularly following the partnership with Adidas that began in Q4 2024 [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.90%, a decrease of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories. The company plans to enhance operational efficiency through training and the deployment of smart production equipment [3] Market and Client Dynamics - The company is minimally affected by tariffs due to its Southeast Asia factories operating under a processing model, with over 50% of raw materials sourced locally in Vietnam. The company’s production capacity is concentrated in Vietnam and Cambodia, which mitigates the impact of tariff increases announced by the U.S. [4] - The growth strategy relies heavily on new clients like Adidas and On, with strong order momentum expected to continue. The company’s customer acquisition capabilities are highlighted as a key strength, allowing it to achieve rapid growth even as major clients like Nike experience slower growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 760 million yuan for Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% in revenue but a slight decline of 3% in net profit [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of over 15% in 2025, driven by new customer orders and an increase in production capacity [2][4]. - The company is currently in a phase of expanding its production capacity, which is anticipated to enhance its international presence and operational efficiency in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.9%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of new factories [1]. - The company’s net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in Q1 2025 [1]. Customer Orders and Market Position - The company has maintained strong relationships with major brands like Nike and Adidas, with expectations of stable orders from existing clients and significant growth from new clients [2]. - The company’s new collaboration with Adidas is expected to contribute to rapid order growth in 2025 [2]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with a total capacity of 229 million pairs and a utilization rate of 97% expected in 2024 [3]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency through training and automation, which is expected to enhance gross margins in the upcoming quarters [3]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of Q1 2025, the company reported a 12.5% increase in inventory year-on-year, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 5.1 days to 74.1 days [4]. - The net operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 1.21 billion yuan, approximately 1.6 times the net profit for the same period [4].

华利集团（300979.SZ） 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 29 年 月 日 新客户订单量 2025Q1 同比显著增长，我们估计老客户订单稳健为主。1）过去公司与 Nike、 Deckers、VF、Puma、On 等核心品牌保持深度合作，2024 年前五大客户销售占比分别为 33%/21%/13%/6%/6%。2）展望 2025 年，考虑客户业务及公司订单合作进度，我们判断 Nike、VF 等客户订单整体以平稳为主，2025 年 On、New Balance、Reebok、Adidas 订单增 速强劲。其中公司新合作客户 Adidas 于 2024 年 9 月开始量产出货、我们判断 2025 合作订 单预计快速放量。综合来看，我们估计新客户订单快速增长有望带动公司 2025 年收入同比 增长 15%+。 未来产能预计加速扩张，增强国际化产能布局。1）2024 年公司总产能/总产量分别 2.29/2.21 亿双，产能利用率 97%。我们判断目前公司产能利用率基本仍处于饱和状态。2）新工厂投 产、次新工厂爬坡推进顺利，短期影响毛利率表现，中长期有望带动规模扩张及业绩释放。 ...