Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]

《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

房地产 2026 年 02 月 02 日 恒隆地产 (00101) ——零售快速改善，核心利润稳增、分红表现稳定 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.24 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9080.19 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.76/5.58 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 467.23 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,056.65 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8925 | 上 市 公 司 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 02/03 03/03 04/03 05/03 06/03 07/03 08/03 09/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 01/03 HSCEI 恒隆地产 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 A023 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 春季后续仍是有机会的震荡市 ——申万宏源策略市场点评 20260202 相关研究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 张知来 A0230125070002 zhangzl@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 A 股 策 略 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 春季前期高点的波段定位：1) 小波段维度，前期高点，赚钱效应扩散已趋于充分。部分 热门结构和 A 股本身平均持仓时间创历史新低，过度交易特征客观存在，市场内在稳定 性本就松动。2) 中波段维度，开门红行情本质还是 2025 年结构性行情的拓展和延伸， 仍处于第一阶段上涨行情高位区域。历史规律是，市场可以抢跑产业趋势，演 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected earnings, with significant contributions from its shipbuilding and diesel generator segments, which provide earnings elasticity. The dividend yield is seen as a protective moat for investors [5]. - The shipbuilding segment is expected to benefit from a decline in steel prices, with projected revenue growth of 14% in 2025, followed by a slight decrease in 2026 and a rebound in 2027 [5]. - The diesel generator segment shows strong market competitiveness, with ongoing projects for major clients like China Mobile, indicating robust demand and performance stability [5]. - The company has a diversified business model and a global operational network, which helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and trade policy changes [5]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 and 2026 is approximately 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively, based on a maintained payout ratio of 42% [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to be 117,803 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,355 million yuan, reflecting an 18% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.04 yuan for 2025, with a gradual increase to 1.23 yuan by 2027 [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025 to 7.8% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.9% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 15.5% by 2027, which reflects stable profitability [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The collective failure of traditional quantitative and price factors in 2026 is related to their reverse logic, providing a scenario for the factorization of the industry rotation model with momentum characteristics [2]. - The industry rotation model has long lacked practical use scenarios, but its stability in excess returns meets the requirements of stock - selection factors, laying a foundation for its transformation into a stock - selection factor [2]. - The industry rotation factor has good factor characteristics, with a monthly IC of 5.3% and an ICIR of 0.40, and it can enhance the performance of the traditional multi - factor model [2][30]. - The industry rotation factor conflicts with the industry deviation constraints in the index - enhancement framework, but it still contributes to stock - selection and cannot be replaced by simple industry over - under - weighting or portfolio strategies [2][61]. - Keeping the individual stock deviation constraint at 0.5% while relaxing the industry deviation constraint is currently the best way to use the industry rotation factor [2][62]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Finding a Usage Scenario for the Industry Rotation Model: Starting from the Failure of Quantitative and Price Factors - Since 2026, index - enhancement funds tracking the CSI 500 index and active quantitative funds' quasi - index products have mostly underperformed the CSI 500 index. As of the end of January, all CSI 500 index - enhancement products underperformed the index, with an average underperformance of 3.46%, and active quantitative products underperformed by 1.96% on average [5]. - The main failed factors are quantitative and price factors such as liquidity, reversal, low - volatility, and market value, whose logic is mostly reverse - oriented. In the context of a rapid rise in the index and continuous driving of some popular sectors and themes in January, these factors not only failed but also reversed [7]. - The industry rotation model is a strongly momentum - driven model. The Shenwan Hongyuan Industry Rotation Model emphasizes momentum in its technical, fundamental, and capital aspects, and can complement traditional quantitative and price factors with reverse logic [10]. - The industry rotation model has long lacked practical use scenarios. Its long - only portfolio performance is not outstanding, and its stable excess return relative to the average of all industries has no practical significance for most investors [13][16]. 2. Factorization of the Industry Rotation Model - Transforming the industry model into a stock - selection model is relatively easy. By splicing the scores of each stock's industry in the industry model, a stock - based score can be obtained. However, due to the large number of stocks belonging to the same industry, the factor shows a segmented score characteristic, and orthogonal processing is required [22]. - The monthly IC of the original industry rotation factor has a correlation of over 0.4 with the growth factor. After orthogonalizing the original industry rotation factor against the growth factor, its performance shows good monotonicity, and its cumulative IC and long - short performance are excellent [23][25]. - From 2017 to January 2026, the monthly average IC of the industry rotation factor reached 5.3%, stronger than other traditional factors, and the ICIR was 0.40, ranking third, indicating excellent factor characteristics [30]. 3. Usage and Comparative Analysis of the Industry Rotation Factor - **Comparison of Four - Factor and Five - Factor Models**: Adding the industry rotation factor to the four - factor equal - weighted model to form a five - factor model can significantly improve the model's performance, especially in recent years, enhancing the model's offensive ability in a bull market and the stability of excess returns [35][38]. - **Factor Equal - Weighting vs. ICIR Weighting**: Changing the factor weighting method from simple equal - weighting to ICIR weighting does not show better results. The five - factor equal - weighted combination with the industry rotation factor performs best in each year and is the only combination with positive excess returns in all years [39]. - **Moving towards the Index - Enhancement Framework: Adding Industry Neutrality and Individual Stock Deviation Constraints**: Adding industry deviation and individual stock constraints to the model makes the industry rotation factor conflict with the industry deviation constraint. Although it can control the maximum drawdown in some years, it also reduces the performance of the five - factor model in terms of returns in some cases. In 2025, the annual excess return becomes negative after adding constraints [41][42]. - **Method of Constraining Industry Deviation Ranking through Industry Scoring**: Using industry scoring to control industry deviation ranking without using the industry rotation factor for stock - selection results in weaker performance compared to the five - factor model with industry and individual stock constraints. This method is not the best option [44]. - **Multi - Strategy Portfolio: Using Industry Rotation as a Satellite Portfolio "Platter"**: Using the industry rotation factor as a separate strategy to form a satellite portfolio and combining it with a four - factor portfolio does not show obvious advantages. The performance of the "platter portfolio" is difficult to outperform, and only the 3:7 ratio combination has a slight competitive edge, but it also shows negative excess returns in January 2026 [50]. - **Current Best Solution: Relaxing Industry Deviation while Maintaining Individual Stock Deviation Constraints**: Keeping the individual stock deviation constraint at 0.5% and relaxing the industry deviation constraint to 4% or 5% can improve the overall excess return of the portfolio, reduce the maximum drawdown of excess returns, and have a negligible impact on tracking error. This is currently the best way to use the industry rotation factor [53][57]. 4. Summary - The industry rotation model has long lacked practical use scenarios, but its stability characteristics provide a basis for its transformation into a stock - selection factor. - The industry rotation factor has good characteristics and can enhance the performance of the traditional multi - factor model, but it conflicts with the industry deviation constraint in the index - enhancement framework. - The industry rotation factor contributes to stock - selection and cannot be replaced by simple strategies. Relaxing the industry deviation constraint while maintaining the individual stock deviation constraint is the best solution [60][61][62].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Tian Shi Li (600535), marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has joined the China Resources Group, initiating a new growth chapter. It has established a business structure that integrates modern traditional Chinese medicine, biological drugs, and chemical drugs, with a focus on prescription drugs and innovation-driven research and development [7][20]. - The report anticipates revenue growth from 85.35 billion yuan in 2025 to 93.70 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 9.90 billion yuan to 13.49 billion yuan during the same period [10]. - The company is well-positioned in the cardiovascular market, with its core product, Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, leading in market share and undergoing further development for new indications [9][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Tian Shi Li has evolved from a single product focus to a diversified portfolio that includes modern traditional Chinese medicine, biological drugs, and chemical drugs, supported by a strong emphasis on innovation and internationalization [18][20]. - The company has undergone significant changes, including a shift in control to China Resources Group, which is expected to enhance its operational capabilities and market reach [39][40]. 2. Product Development and Market Position - The company has a comprehensive product matrix in the cardiovascular field, with key products like Compound Danshen Dripping Pills and Qi Shen Yi Qi Pills, which are undergoing clinical trials for new indications [41][48]. - The cardiovascular traditional Chinese medicine market is substantial, with a projected size of 50.5 billion yuan by 2024, and Tian Shi Li holds a leading position with a market share of 7.5% for its flagship product [46][48]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 85.35 billion, 88.96 billion, and 93.70 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 9.90 billion, 11.95 billion, and 13.49 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [10][29]. - The report estimates a target market capitalization of 28.083 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a 24% upside potential from the current market value [10]. 4. Innovation and R&D - The company is actively pursuing innovation in both traditional and biological drug sectors, with several products in late-stage clinical trials, including those targeting chronic diseases and metabolic disorders [9][11]. - The introduction of new indications for existing products, such as the expansion of Compound Danshen Dripping Pills to include diabetic retinopathy, is expected to drive future growth [50].

证券研究报告 网下博弈加剧，首发估值抬升 ——2026年A股IPO市场1月报 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 任奕璇 A0230525050002 2026.02.02 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 投资提示：沪深新股常态化发行，且审核端提速态势显现、排队项目充裕。1月，新股首发估值明显与二级 市场接轨，一定程度压缩了上市首日涨幅。与此同时，网下博弈加剧，打新产品数进一步增加、入围难度加 大，中签率整体仍处于下行通道。26年1月，2亿元产品网下打新收益接近20万元，收益率约为0.1%。 ◼ IPO常态化，排队耗时较短。26年1月，A股发行新股12只（mom-3只/yoy+4只），合计募资115亿元 （mom-40%/yoy+141%）。其中，沪深两市保持常态化发行，共发行7只新股（mom-6只/yoy持平）， 合计募资97亿元（mom-47%/yoy+110%）。1月，审核注册项目数高企，三大交易所共17个IPO项目上会、 15个项目注册生效，处于25年以来次高水平；沪深首发项目"受理 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous growth potential in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on CXO, innovative drugs, and high-value consumables as key investment areas for 2025 [5][10][11] Performance Forecast - As of February 1, 2025, 261 pharmaceutical companies listed on A-shares have released performance forecasts, with 129 companies expected to be profitable. Among these, 85 companies anticipate profit growth, while 44 expect declines, and 25 are projected to turn losses into profits [6][7] - The report predicts the following profit growth rates for 28 pharmaceutical companies in 2025: - 2 companies with growth rates of 40% or more: SaiFen Technology and JiuZhou Pharmaceutical - 8 companies with growth rates between 20% and 40%: ZuoLi Pharmaceutical, AoRuiTe, HaoYuan Pharmaceutical, BiDe Pharmaceutical, DaSanLin, WoWu Biological, TeBao Biological, and HengRui Pharmaceutical - 10 companies with growth rates between 10% and 20%: BaiYunShan, LingRui Pharmaceutical, KaiLaiYing, PuRuiSi, YaoKang Biological, XiangSheng Medical, KeFu Medical, YiFeng Pharmacy, XinLiTai, and LanXiao Technology - 7 companies with growth rates between 0% and 10%: YunNan BaiYao, WeiEr Pharmaceutical, TongCe Medical, DongFuLong, JingXin Pharmaceutical, EnHua Pharmaceutical, and HuaDong Pharmaceutical - 1 company expected to turn losses into profits: BeiJi ShenZhou-U [7][8] Sector Analysis - The report highlights significant growth in the CXO, innovative drug, and high-value consumables sectors for 2025, driven by favorable conditions in the global innovative drug industry, increased order signing, and rising investment sentiment in both domestic and international pharmaceutical markets [10][11] - The high-value consumables sector benefits from the recovery of domestic surgical demand and improved profit margins following stabilized procurement prices. Some traditional Chinese medicine companies have also exceeded market expectations [10][11] - In contrast, sectors such as IVD, raw materials, vaccines, and blood products are facing performance pressures [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend focusing on the innovative drug and CXO sectors, with specific companies highlighted for attention: - CXO sector: WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, KaiLaiYing, HaoYuan Pharmaceutical, BaiAoSaiTu, Tigermed, NuoSiGe, ZhaoYan Pharmaceutical, YiNuoSi, and PuRuiSi - Innovative drug sector: HengRui Pharmaceutical, BeiJi ShenZhou-U, NuoCheng JianHua, AiDi Pharmaceutical, and WeiXing Biological [5][10]