[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/其他专用机械 证券研究报告 骄成超声（688392）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 首次覆盖：业绩拐点持续确认，新兴业务 快速增长 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 525 | 585 | 761 | 1,092 | 1,318 | | (+/-)% | 0.5% | 11.3% | 30.2% | 43.4% | 20.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 67 | 86 | 120 | 206 | 249 | | (+/-)% | -40.0% | 29.0% | 39.7% | 72.0% | 20.8% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.58 | 0.75 | 1.05 | 1.80 | 2.17 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/医疗保健设备与用品 证券研究报告 新产业（300832）公司跟踪报告 公司研究·新产业（300832）2 表1：可比公司估值表 [Table_InvestInfo] 海外业务占比提升，整体稳定增长 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,047 | 3,930 | 4,535 | 5,227 | 6,028 | | (+/-)% | 19.7% | 29.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 15.3% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,328 | 1,654 | 1,828 | 2,155 | 2,479 | | (+/-)% | 36.4% | 24.5% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 15.0% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.69 | 2.10 | 2.33 | 2. ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/信息科技服务 证券研究报告 顶点软件（603383）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 看好后续业绩改善，核心系统再树标杆案 公司研究·顶点软件（603383）2 财务预测表 | 资产负债表（百万元） | 利润表（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 货币资金 | 营业总收入 | 940 | 693 | 744 | 800 | 857 | 744 | 664 | 838 | 1,008 | 1,161 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易性金融资产 | 营业成本 | 150 | 608 | 631 | 654 | 677 | 229 | 219 ...

研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 蒙牛乳业 China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) 供给去化，周期反转 Supply is dwindling and the cycle is about to reverse OPM 提升逐年兑现，重视股东回报。公司盈利能力逐年向好，24 年 /2024H1/2024H2 公司经营利润率同比+1.9/+0.6/+3.3pct，OPM 超预期。公 司于 2022 年-2024 年 OPM 分别提升 34/40/193 基点，持续兑现每年提升 30-50 基点的指引。同时公司注重股东回报，24 年公司将剔除贝拉米相关 减值净影响 39.8 亿、以及现代牧业商誉减值影响 3.5 亿后的利润作为分红 基础，并提升 2024 年分红比例至 45%，同比提升 5pct。公司 2024 年派发 期末股息每股普通股人民币 0.509 元，合计拟派发现金股利约 20 亿元。 24 年资本开支 35.8 亿元，同比-14%。随资本支出减少，我们认为未来派 息率仍存在扩大空间。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 ...

中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology OpenAI 系列追踪 Day2：押注"AI+社交"，构建数据闭环新战场 OpenAI Series Tracking Day2: Betting on 'AI+Social', Building a New sector for Closing the Data Loop 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com wo[Table_Title] Research Report 16 Apr 2025 [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 2025 年 4 月 16 日，根据第一财经报道，OpenAI 正在内测一款类 Twitter 的社交平台原型，意在模仿 xAI 利用社交 平台构建数据闭环。据悉，该平台或将集成 ChatGPT 的多模态能力，支持用户生成与互动内容的沉淀，并形成实时 信息流。 点评： OpenAI 试图通过"AI+社交"构建数据闭环，打造面向大众应用的新型 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 电子 Technology Tableau Next：从传统 BI 到 Agent，重塑数据行业格局 Tableau Next: From Traditional BI to AI Agents, Reshaping the Data Industry Landscape 我们认为，Tableau Next 有望凭借主动洞察数据和企业级工作流整合方面的 AI 优势主导高端市场。虽然 Power BI 在 价格和普及性上占优，Tableau Next 的未来潜力在于其 AI 驱动的创新和 Salesforce 的生态整合，其处理大型数据集和 实时监控的能力将吸引更多高端客户。由于 Tableau Next 的高订阅费可能限制在中小型市场的渗透，Salesforce 需通 过灵活定价或增值服务以应对竞争。Power BI 的持续改进（如 Copilot 的扩展）表明 Microsoft 也在积极推进 BI 领域的 创新，但其重点更偏向于普及化和易用性。Tableau Next 更适合追求尖端 AI 功能和大型数据处理的企 ...

英伟达 H20 出口管制升级：加速国产代替 NVIDIA H20 Export Control Upgrade: Accelerating Domestic Replacement 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com geng[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 英伟达 NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA US) [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 4 月 15 日，英伟达 8-k 披露 (Link)，美国政府于 9 日告知， H20 芯片出口到中国需要许可证，此后又于 14 日告知， 这些规定将无限期实施。通知提及，这一新规将影响该公司共计约 55 亿美元的季度费用，涉及 H20 的库存、采购 承诺和相关储备。美国将 H20 纳入 "非民用超算风险清单"，意味着 AI 芯片管制从高端产品（如 A100、H100）延 伸至定制化中端产品。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting significant growth in cloud business revenue and overall profits [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, significantly boosting profits. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 522 million, 656 million, and 883 million RMB respectively, with EPS expected to be 0.46, 0.57, and 0.77 RMB [4][7]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 8.20 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1%. However, cloud services revenue is expected to grow by 38.1% to 2.76 billion RMB, while enterprise management software revenue is projected to increase by 3.7% to 2.56 billion RMB [8][9]. - The company is focusing on large enterprises and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, having enabled digital transformation for numerous central government-owned enterprises and top companies in China [9][10]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million RMB): 8,294 in 2023, projected to decline to 8,201 in 2024, then increase to 8,586 in 2025, 9,213 in 2026, and 10,291 in 2027 [3][6]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 1,918 in 2023, expected to rise to 2,208 in 2024, 2,447 in 2025, 2,718 in 2026, and 3,190 in 2027 [3][6]. - Gross profit margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2024 to 31.0% in 2027 [6]. - The company plans to continue returning value to shareholders with a proposed dividend of 0.08 HKD per share [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its presence in the large enterprise market and plans to release advanced AI-driven platforms in 2024, enhancing its competitive edge in the ERP sector [9][10]. - The introduction of foundation models is expected to improve the company's smart supply chain products, focusing on various industries such as pharmaceuticals and manufacturing [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, 7.93 billion RMB for 2026, and 9.16 billion RMB for 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The target price has been raised to 17.83 HKD, reflecting a dynamic price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.5x for 2025 [5][9]. - The company is experiencing stable performance with operating net cash flow growing significantly, projected at 0.93 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 42.9% [5][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit is projected to be -0.14 billion RMB, showing a 32.3% improvement [4][5]. - Cloud service revenue is expected to reach 5.11 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue, with a cloud subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% increase [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company's cloud services, particularly the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Xinghan, which achieved a combined revenue of 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, a 32.9% increase [5][9]. AI Integration and Product Development - The company is accelerating the integration of AI with its ERP systems, launching over 20 AI applications and signing contracts with nearly 20 large enterprises. This includes significant advancements in financial management and HR [5][9]. - The AI applications are expected to enhance customer transaction values, with over 7,500 small micro enterprises benefiting from AI-enabled products [5][9].