策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.22 2025-04-22 加仓半导体互联网，减仓能源材料 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——25Q1 基金港股持仓点评 本报告导读： 25Q1 公募基金对港股明显增持，持股集中度继续上升，主动偏股型基金港股持仓/ 南向港股持仓略有提升。分行业看，25Q1 公募基金主要加仓港股商贸零售、电子和 传媒，主要减仓港股社服、石油石化和公用事业。 投资要点： 风险提示：部分数据披露不全造成偏误。 登记编号 S0880525040061 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 021-38676666 陈菲(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040127 [Table_Summary] 25Q1 公募基金对港股继续增持，持股集中度继续回升。25Q1 可以 通过港股通投资港股的公募基金发行多于去年四季度。从整体仓位 看，公募基金对港股延续增持，截至 25Q1 主动偏股型基金重仓股 中港股持股市值占比为 19.2%，相较 24Q4 环比上升 4.7 个百分点。 从指 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, assigning a target price of RMB 5.32 based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4][18]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at RMB 179.2 billion, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 75.3% to RMB 9.83 billion [19]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 45.3 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 640 million, reversing a loss from the previous year [19]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in asset and credit impairment in Q4 2024, amounting to RMB 860 million, down RMB 1.09 billion year-on-year [20]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3.57 billion for 2024, representing 36.3% of net profit attributable to shareholders [19]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The financial summary indicates that the company's revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of RMB 180.8 billion, followed by RMB 191.9 billion in 2026 and RMB 192.9 billion in 2027 [3][17]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 6.71 billion in 2025, RMB 7.73 billion in 2026, and RMB 8.32 billion in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2024 [3][17]. - The report notes that the company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.1% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 11.8% by 2027 [3][17]. Operational Highlights - The company is nearing the completion of hydropower projects, with a total capacity of 15.0GW expected by the end of 2024, and additional capacity planned for 2025 and 2026 [21]. - The report indicates that the company's wind and solar power segments experienced a decline in net profit, with projections of RMB 780 million and RMB 600 million respectively for 2024 [21]. - The company plans to invest RMB 28 billion in early-stage and infrastructure projects in 2025, which is a decrease of 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in renewable energy project development [21].

业绩符合预期，产能瓶颈解决在即 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/电子元器件 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table 财务摘要（百万元） _FinanceInfo] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 48,784 | 48,615 | 60,795 | 73,289 | 86,289 | | (+/-)% | 34.4% | -0.3% | 25.1% | 20.6% | 17.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 4,050 | 4,076 | 5,034 | 6,808 | 8,117 | | (+/-)% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 23.5% | 35.2% | 19.2% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.98 | 1.99 | 2.46 | 3.33 | 3.97 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 11.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 15.4% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 12.3 based on a 2025 PE of 35x [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has a standardized scenic area management system and cross-regional replication capability, supported by quality cultural tourism assets from its major shareholder, Xiangyuan Holdings Group [4][9]. - Projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are RMB 372 million, RMB 409 million, and RMB 448 million respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][9]. - The company has overcome the natural resource dependency bottleneck, allowing for a valuation premium [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 72.226 billion in 2023 to RMB 150.668 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 55.8% in 2023 and 74.4% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase significantly from RMB 15.130 billion in 2023 to RMB 37.248 billion in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 571.7% in 2023 [3]. - The company anticipates a revenue of RMB 864 million in 2024, representing a 19.6% increase, with a slight decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 3.1% [10]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is actively exploring a "low-altitude + cultural tourism" model, partnering with leading general aviation companies to innovate in low-altitude tourism operations [12]. - It aims to integrate cultural tourism with technological innovation, establishing demonstration samples in key scenic areas [12]. - The company has a diverse portfolio in tourism assets, including various scenic spots and a strong presence in the animation and digital cultural sectors [7]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, tourism scenic area revenue is expected to reach RMB 545 million, a 39.7% increase, with a gross profit margin of 63.1% [11]. - Revenue from tourism services, including smart cultural tourism and low-altitude tourism, is projected to grow by 768% to RMB 107 million [11]. - The tourism resort business is also expected to see a 50.3% increase in revenue, reaching RMB 57.06 million [11]. Shareholder Structure - The top shareholders include Xiangyuan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. with 36.93% and Zhejiang Xiangyuan Industrial Co., Ltd. with 19.37%, collectively holding 69.8% of the total share capital [8].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/医疗保健提供商与服务 证券研究报告 诺禾致源（688315）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 盈利能力提升、关注国际贸易环境变化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 2,002 | 2,111 | 2,357 | 2,634 | 2,947 | | (+/-)% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.9% | | 净利润（归母） | 178 | 197 | 222 | 248 | 276 | | (+/-)% | 0.5% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.66 | | 净资产收益率(%) ...

研究报告 Research Report 22 Apr 2025 福耀玻璃 Fuyao Glass Industry Group (600660 CH) 2025 年一季报：毛利率环比修复，新产能释放好于预期 25Q1 Review: GP Margin Improved QoQ; New Capacity Ramp-up Beat Expectations [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb55.39 目标价 Rmb62.27 HTI ESG 3.0-2.8-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 A- 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb138.98bn / US$19.04bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$109.02mn 发行股票数目 2 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.20 2025-04-21 全面拆解：各行业面临多少关税 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 登记编号 S0880525040019 本报告导读： 美国设计的三类关税措施一一对应财政增收、制造业回流和国家谈判，"想当然"的 希望制造业回流和债务调整。当前中国未受豁免品类最高受关税加征 145%，达到 了 245%，平均而言税率为 121.5%。往后看，美国自身压力会增大，关税的力度可 能出现调整。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 美国加关税的初衷是"想当然"的促进美国的制造业回流和债务调 整。白宫经济顾问米兰的《全球贸易体系重组指南》里，对"特里 芬悖论"的解释，认为美国提供美元与美债两大储备资产的副作用 是贸易赤字与财政赤字加剧，因而当前使用关税来促进美国的制造 业回流和债务调整，进而改善双赤字问题。 关税的三类措施各有用意 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 刘姜枫(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880123070128 对全 ...

财政节奏：或将加快 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 3 月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济阶段性改善。二季度或主要加快 落实存量政策，后续根据需要或继续加码。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040074 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.19 2025-04-21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 证 券 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 狭义收入：增速边际回升。2025 年一季度，全国一般公共预算收入 同比下降 1.1%，其中 3 月当月同比增速 0.3%，相比 1-2 月的增速边 际回升。3 月的财税收入表现反映经济边际改善，或主要与消费补 贴、地产托底政策有关。进一步看，3 月当月，增值税、消费税、企 业所得税收入增速均边际回升；个人所得税收入同比回落，主因基 础因素的扰动；出口退税增速仍然较高，或受 "抢出口"的影响。 此外，非税收入增速边际回落，但仍对财 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.17 2025-04-21 一季度经济中生产、消费、投资全面改善，政策受益板块表现更加强劲，下阶段预 计积极政策会继续逐步发力稳增长。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040087 "开门红"的经济：结构如何 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 宏 观 研 究 2025 年一季度经济数据点评 证 券 本报告导读： 研 究 报 告 宏 021-38676666 观 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 专 题 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 1. | 一季度"开门红"：多点开花 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 生产：表现强劲 | 3 | | 3. | 消费：政策利好板块增速高 | 5 | | 4. | 投资：基建投资回升 | 7 | 宏观专题 登记编号 S0880525040019 1. 一季度"开门红"：多点开花 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度经济实现"开门红"，GDP 实际同比增长 5.4%，与去 年四季度持平且高于年度增长目标。一方面，促消费、稳地产等政 策叠加春节假 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 21 Apr 2025 阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司（ADNOCDRI UH） 独具特色的钻探与能源服务商，股息有望提升 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_summary] 要闻回顾以及最新动态 近日，海通邀请阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司（优于大市）与中国多家机构投资者进行交流，探讨公司的业务前景。该公司 是一家设于阿布扎比的钻探与能源服务公司，也是阿布扎比国家石油公司唯一的钻探服务提供商。详情见演示文稿及中东 2025 年展望：本十年能源强劲增长的受益者：首次覆盖。公司重点介绍了其独特的商业模式、可持续的高利润率及回报展 望，并再次重申目标，即在 2024 财年至 2028 财年期间，股息的年复合增长率至少达到 10%。阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司 严格的执行纪律巩固了该公司作为全球增长最快的钻井公司和当地整体解决方案提供商的地位，我们继续看好该公司。 点评 阿布扎比国家石油钻井公司的基本情况：阿布扎比国家石油钻井 ...