Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, among others [11]. Core Insights - The transition to the "Agent" era is accelerating, with AI agents like Clawdbot and Claude Excel evolving from simple conversational tools to essential productivity tools, significantly increasing demand for cloud computing resources [1][20]. - The AI application landscape is fundamentally shifting from simple interactions to deep integration into work processes, marking a new paradigm where AI becomes a core executor in workflows [2][21]. - The emergence of AI agents is driving a qualitative change in underlying computing power demand, as these agents transition from auxiliary tools to autonomous entities [3][22]. - The competition for computing power is intensifying, with rising cloud service prices and continuous growth in capital expenditures (capex) from cloud providers, highlighting the increasing importance of scarce computing resources [4][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communications, with recommended companies including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [14]. - It also highlights the importance of liquid cooling and edge computing platforms, recommending companies like Yingweike and Meige Intelligent [14]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with optical communications performing particularly well, as evidenced by significant stock price increases for companies like Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang [16][17]. Computing Power Demand - The report emphasizes that the new operational modes of AI agents lead to a dramatic increase in token consumption, necessitating high concurrency and continuous online capabilities from computing services [5][25]. - Major cloud providers like Google Cloud and Amazon AWS have announced price increases for their services, indicating a shift from a long-term trend of decreasing prices [10][23]. Key Companies and Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have shown strong growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang maintaining its leading position in the industry [25]. - The report recommends monitoring the performance of companies involved in the computing power supply chain, including those in optical modules and liquid cooling sectors [25].

Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the express delivery volume growth slowed due to factors like e-commerce tax and "anti-involution" policies, with industry revenue per ticket initially declining before recovering[2] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a business volume growth rate of 8% in 2026, down from 14% in 2025[48] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Three main investment lines for 2026 are identified: overseas expansion, anti-involution, and cyclical recovery[2] - The overseas expansion line is driven by explosive growth in overseas e-commerce GMV, with Jitu Express expected to benefit significantly, achieving a 68% year-on-year growth in Southeast Asia in 2025[19] - The anti-involution line highlights the increasing market share and profitability of leading express companies, with recommendations to focus on Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express[2] Group 3: Key Companies - Jitu Express is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with Southeast Asia revenue increasing by approximately 30% to $1.97 billion in the first half of 2025, and adjusted EBIT growing by 74%[19] - SF Express is expected to benefit from a mild domestic economic recovery, with its business structure adjustments showing positive results, and its valuation at historical lows[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery market is experiencing significant differentiation, with leading companies gaining market share and profitability amid a backdrop of regulatory changes aimed at curbing price wars[41] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like Zhongtong and YTO expected to outperform in terms of growth and profitability due to their superior management capabilities and network resilience[48]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 21.6 trillion, completing 98.3% of the initial budget, while total expenditure was 28.74 trillion, completing 96.8% of the budget, marking the lowest completion rate on record[3] - December 2025 fiscal revenue was 1.55 trillion, down 25% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - December fiscal expenditure was 3.89 trillion, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend for three consecutive months[11] Structural Insights - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local government expenditure, which only grew by 0.2%[3] - The proportion of general fiscal expenditure directed towards people's livelihoods increased to 38%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while infrastructure-related expenditure decreased to 19.5%, down 1.9 percentage points[3] Future Projections - For 2026, it is anticipated that fiscal expansion will remain at a level comparable to 2025, with a focus on "investing in people" and an early release of "national subsidies" to stimulate economic growth[6] - A projected 580 billion in carryover funds from 2025 is expected to supplement the 2026 fiscal budget[2] Tax Revenue Expectations - A rebound in prices, particularly a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), is expected to increase tax revenue by approximately 1.4 percentage points, translating to an additional 2.4 trillion in tax revenue[8] - The PPI is forecasted to improve from -2.6% to -0.4% in 2026, which will positively impact tax bases, especially for value-added tax and corporate income tax[8] Short-term Considerations - Key areas of focus include local government GDP targets, potential carryover funds, and the performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with the average dropping to 227.9 thousand tons, while steel production has seen a minor increase [13]. - Total steel inventory has expanded, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7%, indicating a growing supply in the market [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened slightly, with rebar demand decreasing by 13.4% week-on-week [39]. - Iron ore prices are trending downwards, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, alongside rising port inventories [48]. - The current steel price index has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, reflecting a general weakening in the market [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 227.9 thousand tons, with a slight recovery in steel production [13]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [17]. 2. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with social inventory rising to 890.7 thousand tons [25]. - Rebar social inventory has increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil inventory has decreased by 1.0% [25]. 3. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 1.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 4.9% [49]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has dropped to 67 thousand tons, a decline of 13.4% [41]. 4. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.2 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [58]. - The total port inventory of iron ore has increased by 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus [58]. 5. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased to 121.6, reflecting a 0.2% decline week-on-week [72]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating cost pressures in the industry [74].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 C-REITs 周报——二级渐暖，首批商业不动产 REITs 已申报受理 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 0.47%。截至 1.30，本周（1.23-1.30， 下同）中证 REITs（收盘）指数上涨 0.35%，收于 809.6 点；中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 0.47%，收于 1052.4 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十年 期国债/房地产（（申万）/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路（（指数分别上涨 申万） 0.08%/上涨 2.38%/上涨 0.19%/下跌 2.21%/上涨 5.71%/上涨 0.10%。 本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 4.22%。截至 1.30，本年中证 REITs （收盘）指数涨幅为 3.98%，中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 4.22%。本 年沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产（申万）/恒生地产建筑业/高速 公路（（申万）指数分别上涨 1.65%/上涨 6.85%/上涨 0.66%/上涨 4.30%/ 上涨 14.75%/下跌 1. ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Recent Key Events - Tencent and Baidu announced their Spring Festival red envelope distribution plans, with Tencent distributing 1 billion RMB and Baidu offering 500 million RMB in red envelopes [1][8] - Alibaba launched the Qwen3-Max-Thinking model, which has over 1 trillion parameters and 36 trillion tokens of pre-training data, marking it as their largest and most capable model to date [2][9] - The U.S. and China are actively promoting the development of the autonomous driving industry, with significant policy initiatives and pilot programs being launched [3][10] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index rose from 25,631 points at the end of December 2025 to 27,827 points by January 28, 2026, reflecting an increase of 8.6% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 7.0% during the same period, with significant gains in sectors such as durable consumer goods and semiconductors [15][11] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike, China Qinfa, and Power Development [21] - Pay attention to resource-rich and cost-advantaged non-ferrous metal companies like China Aluminum [21] - Consider internet companies benefiting from AI model iterations and ecosystem improvements, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Kuaishou [21] - Look for undervalued consumer electronics component firms with strong growth potential, such as Q Technology and AAC Technologies [21] - Monitor Robotaxi operators like WeRide and Pony.ai, which are expected to benefit from the high demand for autonomous driving [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike (2423.HK) is positioned as a restructuring force in the brokerage service industry, with significant growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions expected [22] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is set to benefit from improved coal quality and rising coal prices, with a focus on expanding its operations in Indonesia [24][27] - Power Development (1277.HK) is expanding its overseas operations and has secured a partnership for a heavy mineral project, which is expected to significantly boost its profitability [30][31] - China Aluminum (2600.HK) maintains a strong position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a comprehensive industry chain and improved profitability due to rising aluminum prices [34][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the Qwen model and is seeing growth in its cloud services and e-commerce segments [38][39] - Tencent (0700.HK) is launching new AI-driven social features and has reported strong revenue growth, particularly in gaming and advertising [43][44]

- The "Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart" model is constructed based on multi-dimensional indicators including liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flow, technical trends, and crowding sentiment. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1, 1] to assess market conditions [1][6][9] - **Liquidity Factors**: - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Calculated using the average change in central bank monetary policy tool rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor > 0, monetary policy is deemed expansionary; if < 0, it is deemed contractionary. Current score: 1 [12][14] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, calculated as deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smoothed and standardized using z-score. If the factor < -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a 120-day future easing environment, scoring 1; if > 1.5 standard deviations, scoring -1. Current score: 0 [15][16] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Derived from monthly long-term loan data, calculated as the year-on-year change in the past 12 months' increment. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [18][20] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Captures whether credit metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as (new RMB loans - median forecast)/forecast standard deviation. If the factor > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores 1; if < -1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: -1 [22][23] - **Economic Factors**: - **Growth Direction Factor**: Based on PMI data (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and Caixin manufacturing PMI), calculated as the year-on-year change in the 12-month average. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [26][28] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Captures whether growth metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as (PMI - median forecast)/forecast standard deviation. If the factor > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores 1; if < -1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: 1 [29][31] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Calculated as 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-on-year + 0.5 × raw PPI year-on-year. If the factor decreases compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [32][33] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Captures whether inflation metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as the average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations. If the factor < -1.5, it scores 1; if > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: -1 [35][37] - **Valuation Factors**: - **Shiller ERP**: Calculated as 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, standardized using z-score over the past six years. Current score: -0.10 [38][42] - **PB**: Processed as PB × (-1), standardized using z-score over the past six years, truncated at ±1.5 standard deviations. Current score: -0.75 [40][41] - **AIAE**: Represents aggregate investor allocation to equities, calculated as total market cap/(total market cap + total debt), standardized using z-score over the past six years. Current score: -1.00 [43][44] - **Capital Flow Factors**: - **Margin Financing Increment**: Calculated as the difference between 120-day average increment and 240-day average increment of margin financing balance. If the short-term increment exceeds the long-term increment, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [46][48] - **Turnover Trend**: Calculated as log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1. If the maximum distance of 10, 30, and 60 days is positive, it scores 1; if the minimum distance is negative, it scores -1. Current score: 1 [49][50] - **China Sovereign CDS Spread**: Represents overseas investors' pricing of China's economic and sovereign credit risk. If the smoothed 20-day difference of CDS spread < 0, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [52][54] - **Overseas Risk Aversion Index**: Captures overseas market risk preference using Citi RAI Index. If the smoothed 20-day difference < 0, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [55][56] - **Technical Factors**: - **Price Trend**: Calculated as moving average distance (ma120/ma240 - 1). Trend direction scores 1 if > 0, otherwise -1. Trend strength scores 1 if max(20) = max(60), otherwise -1. Comprehensive score = (direction score + strength score)/2. Current score: 1 [57][59] - **New Highs and Lows**: Calculated as the moving average of the difference between new lows and new highs among index constituents over the past year. If the smoothed difference > 0, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [60][62] - **Crowding Sentiment Factors**: - **Option Implied Premium**: Derived from the implied premium of options based on put-call parity. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile > 70%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [64][68] - **Option VIX**: Reflects expected volatility of options. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile > 70%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [65][67] - **Option SKEW**: Reflects expected skewness of options. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile < 30%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [69][70] - **Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation**: Calculated as (convertible bond price/model price - 1), standardized using z-score over the past three years. Higher deviation indicates higher crowding sentiment, scoring lower. Current score: -1 [71][72] - **Factor Testing Results**: - Liquidity factors: Monetary direction (1), Monetary strength (0), Credit direction (1), Credit strength (-1) [12][15][18][22] - Economic factors: Growth direction (-1), Growth strength (1), Inflation direction (-1), Inflation strength (-1) [26][29][32][35] - Valuation factors: Shiller ERP (-0.10), PB (-0.75), AIAE (-1.00) [38][40][43] - Capital flow factors: Margin financing increment (1), Turnover trend (1), China Sovereign CDS spread (1), Overseas risk aversion index (-1) [46][49][52][55] - Technical factors: Price trend (1), New highs and lows (-1) [57][60] - Crowding sentiment factors: Option implied premium (-1), Option VIX (-1), Option SKEW (-1), Convertible bond pricing deviation (-1) [64][65][69][71]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of the Spring Festival peak season for liquor sales, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant improvements in sales and pricing, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and expectations [1][2]. - In the food sector, there is an anticipated boost in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, with specific focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Ancient Well, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from pre-holiday stocking, with companies like Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods positioned to capitalize on the festive demand [2][4]. - Anjuke is focusing on new product launches and expanding into overseas markets, while Qiaqia Foods is set to improve profitability in 2026 due to lower raw material costs [4][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies such as H&H International Holdings and Nongfu Spring highlighted for their potential [1][2]. - The emphasis is placed on the recovery of the restaurant and dairy sectors, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to show positive performance [1][2].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 宏观点评 1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后 事件：2026 年 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%（前值 50.1%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4%（前值 50.2%）；综合 PMI 为 49.8%（前值 50.7%）。 核心观点：1 月制造业 PMI 重回线下，弱于季节性，分项看，供需均 回落、内需和外需回落更多，尤其是新订单指数；服务业、建筑业景气 均超季节性回落，建筑业大降，应主要与冷空气南下影响施工进度，以 及春节假期临近等因素有关。倾向于认为，当前经济仍属于"弱现实"、 实际下行压力仍大，本质还是内需不足、信心偏弱。往后看，2026 年 大方向已定、实现"十五五"良好开局是硬要求，短期紧盯一季度"开 门红"的相关举措。预计 2026 年 GDP 目标可能定为 4.5-5%、仍属偏 高水平，指向政策需要偏积极、偏扩张、偏刺激。短期紧盯 4 大方面： 1）地方两会，目前进程过半，22 地集中在 1 月召开，重点关注各地 GDP 目标（截至 01/28，20 地 GDP 目标加权平均 5%、5 大经济大省 均下 ...