行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 究 报 告 锂价：12月，电池级碳酸锂均价9.99万元/吨，环比+15%，同比+30%。 截至2026年1月26日，电池级碳酸锂价格为17.85万元/吨，较年初上涨50%， 较2025年最低点上涨192%。我们判断，当前仍处于下游淡季，锂价或将 维持高位震荡，节后下游进入产销旺季，锂价或重新开启新一轮上涨趋势。 投资建议：当前需求淡季不淡，带动去库，基本面向好驱动锂价持续 上涨至高位震荡，农历春节后下游有望进入旺季，积极备库的背景下供需 将维持紧张格局，锂价有望进一步上涨。建议关注大中、国城、盛新、雅 化、天华、永兴、藏格、天齐、赣锋等。 风险提示 下游需求低于预期；供给端超预期释放产能。 强于大市（维持评级） 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 19 - 23, the market fluctuated upwards, with the All - A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel leading the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks leading the losses [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have also risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - Currently, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Thinking: Geopolitical Disturbance, "Selling US Treasuries" and Gold and Silver - Market performance: From January 19 - 23, the All - A index rose 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, while medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical influence: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues have affected market pricing. The plan to sell US Treasuries by some pension funds has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks. In the A - share market, micro - cap stocks and cyclical styles led the gains, and the space - photovoltaic concept was active [13][14]. 2. Market Observation: Decline in Stock - Bond Yield Difference and Industry Rotation Intensity 2.1 Market Valuation - The stock - bond yield difference dropped to 0.4%, less than +1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 months ahead of the market [22]. 2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share emotion. The industry rotation intensity (MA5) dropped to 34, below the 40 warning level. The small - cap style was dominant, the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market, and the theme heat was mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, selected photovoltaic, and glass fiber (13.1%, 11.8%, 11.6% respectively) [23]. 2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances industries [29]. 2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading amount of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect during the week decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume of the Stock Connect were Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic Technology, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, with their 5 - day gains being - 5.2%, - 3.6%, and - 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 99.8 billion yuan, mainly flowing into the non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking industries. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change in major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, with CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 being more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - biased funds this week was 78.6 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3. Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, accelerating the industrial trend [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space - photovoltaic, opening up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, marking a new step in the AI commercialization process [50]. 4. Industry Allocation - In late January, which is the intensive period for annual report performance pre - disclosures, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. Despite some equity broad - based indices experiencing fluctuations due to ETF fund outflows, convertible bonds showed strong optimism as they were not affected by such factors. Key asset characteristic indicators in the convertible bond market rapidly increased [3][11]. - The short - term overheating indicators have not been triggered yet, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, these indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - The call provision remains the main short - term valuation game point. It has a disturbing impact on the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. Historically, call provisions have generally put pressure on the subsequent trends of convertible bonds [20]. - For the underlying stocks, the call is not just an event - based shock. Converting bonds to stocks for "extending the life" of call - announced convertible bonds does not significantly increase returns. The price recovery of underlying stocks is not a high - probability event after conversion and extended holding [21]. - A set of screening criteria for convertible bond conversion investment to achieve effective "extension of life" has been established. From 2019 to now, convertible bonds meeting these criteria have an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72%. For convertible bonds meeting these criteria, it is recommended to actively convert at a negative premium rate at the end of the bond's life and hold for 10 trading days [24]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Section 1: Is There a "Second Chance" for Convertible Bonds after Forced Redemption? - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. The weighted average price of the entire market's convertible bonds reached 146 yuan, a record high. The number of convertible bond issues with a price > 130 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 20% reached 222, accounting for 58.58% of the entire market. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity between 110 - 130 yuan increased rapidly [11]. - **Overheating Indicators**: The short - term trading signal indicators mainly include the implied 3 - month yield and the moving - average overheating indicator. As of January 23, neither had been triggered, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, overheating indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - **Impact of Call Provisions**: Call provisions are the main short - term valuation game point, disturbing the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return of 441 call - redeemed convertible bonds from the call announcement date to the last trading day was - 4.78%, the median return was - 4.88%, and the positive return probability was only 32.2% [20]. - **Effect of Conversion and Extended Holding**: For underlying stocks, converting call - announced convertible bonds to stocks and extending the holding period does not significantly increase returns. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return during the test period was - 0.50%, the median return was - 1.31%, and the positive return probability was 44.93% [21]. - **Screening Criteria for Conversion Investment**: The screening criteria are: on the trading day before the call announcement, the conversion value is between 120 yuan and 135 yuan; the remaining term of the convertible bond is between 1.5 and 4.5 years; the convertible bond's price change from the call announcement date to the last trading day is between - 5% and 10%. From 2019 to now, 25 convertible bonds meet these criteria, with an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72% [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (January 19 - 23), the market fluctuated upward, with the All A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and CSI 500 led the gains, while CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries and geopolitical risks have led to an influx of funds into gold and silver, and the price of crude oil has also increased due to geopolitical risk premiums [13]. - In the A - share market, after regulatory "cooling" last week, micro - cap stocks and the cyclical style led the gains this week, and commercial aerospace rebounded. The market is pursuing theme elasticity and also exploring low - lying areas. Attention should be paid to sectors with performance fundamentals and those with elasticity [14][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Thinking - Market performance: The All A index rose 1.81% this week. Micro - cap stocks and CSI 500 led the gains, while CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, and medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, while non - bank finance, communication, and banking led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical impact: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues, such as threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries and then reversing the policy, and the plan of some European pension funds to sell US Treasuries, have weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. The price of silver exceeded $100/ounce and gold approached $5000/ounce. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - A - share market characteristics: After regulatory "cooling" last week, micro - cap stocks and the cyclical style led the gains this week, and commercial aerospace rebounded. The market is also exploring low - lying areas, and the space photovoltaic concept is active [14]. 3.2 Market Observation 3.2.1 Market Valuation - The equity - bond yield spread decreased to 0.4%, less than + 1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 month ahead of the market [22]. 3.2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share market emotion. The industry rotation intensity decreased to 34, below the warning value of 40. The small - cap style is dominant, and the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market. The theme heat is mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, photovoltaic selection, and glass fiber [23]. 3.2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the sectors of comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances [29]. 3.2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume were Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and CATL, with 5 - day declines of 5.2%, 3.6%, and 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 9.98 billion yuan, mainly flowing into non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change of major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, and CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 were more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - oriented funds was 7.86 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, which will accelerate the industrial trend. Tesla is already using some Optimus robots in the factory, and it is predicted that they will be able to perform more complex tasks by the end of 2026 [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space photovoltaics. SpaceX and Tesla are working together to increase solar capacity, aiming to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100GW in the next three years, which opens up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, which is an important step in the AI commercialization process. OpenAI has informed more than a dozen advertisers of the plan to launch a chatbot advertising service in early February, with a trial - run advertising expenditure of less than $1 million [50]. 3.4 Industry Allocation - In late January, during the intensive period of annual report performance pre - disclosure, attention should be paid to sectors with performance fundamentals, such as power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain. In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can also be paid to the small - cap style and the "Musk chain" [5][52].

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/19-1/23）市场震荡上行，全 A 收涨 1.81%。从指数情况看， 微盘股、中证 500 领涨，沪深 300、上证 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 先进制造领涨，医药医疗、金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少， 建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁领涨，非银金融、通信、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光伏精选、玻璃纤维。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工多头个股 占比居前，综合、电子、家用电器内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周下降 627 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周下降 202 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为中 际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][67] Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic new energy storage installation exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in commercial aerospace energy systems [2][4] - The lithium battery sector is undergoing regulatory changes, with six departments jointly issuing management measures to standardize competition, including the proposed cancellation of export tax rebates for lithium batteries [2][8] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a strong trend, with space photovoltaic concepts seeing a cumulative increase of 26.48%, indicating a shift in photovoltaic applications from ground to space [3][17][18] - The wind power sector is witnessing positive progress in offshore projects in Hainan and Guangdong, with significant advancements in the construction of the Shagao Desert wind power base [3][30][31] - The nuclear fusion sector is accelerating towards engineering, with the BEST device aiming to light the "first lamp" by 2030, marking a significant step in fusion energy development [3][40][41] - The energy storage sector saw a domestic addition of nearly 190 GWh in 2025, with global household storage shipments increasing by nearly 50% [4][45][47] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The management measures issued by six departments aim to standardize the competition order in the lithium battery industry, with a focus on the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used batteries [8][9] - The market is currently in a policy transition period, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to drop to 44.4% in January [9][10] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to reshape the demand for space photovoltaics, with significant technological advancements anticipated [17][18] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing marginal changes in the supply chain, with fluctuations in prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery cells [19][20][21] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The Hainan Sheneng CZ2 offshore wind project is progressing with cable and construction tenders, expected to commence construction in 2026 [30] - The Gansu 1.9 GW onshore wind project is moving forward with procurement tenders, indicating rapid development in the Shagao Desert wind power base [32] 2.3 Nuclear Fusion Sector - The BEST device is set to accelerate towards engineering, with plans for a fusion city in Hefei, indicating a strong commitment to fusion energy development [40][41] 3. Energy Storage Sector - In 2025, the domestic energy storage market added 66.43 GW/189.48 GWh, with significant growth in new energy storage installations [45][46] - Global household storage shipments reached 35 GWh, with major markets including Germany, the USA, Australia, and Japan [47][48] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The investment in China's power grid construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, focusing on ultra-high voltage, distribution networks, and digital transformation [54][55] - The Gansu Badan Jilin to Sichuan ultra-high voltage direct current project is set to be operational by 2028, highlighting significant infrastructure investments [55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [44]. Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 6029.22 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.32%. The semiconductor materials index rose by 0.14%, while the organic silicon materials index increased by 4.15% [3][10]. - DRAM prices have surged by over 10% due to AI demand, with predictions of a 55-60% increase in contract prices for the first quarter. This trend is driven by strong contract price increases and the growing need for advanced memory products for AI servers [4][25][26]. - Newhan New Materials announced a cash acquisition of 51% of Hai Rui Te Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. for 12.8826 million yuan, enhancing its position in the PEEK resin market [4][29]. Market Overview - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with significant expansion in downstream wafer factories. Companies like Tongcheng New Materials are making strides in import substitution [4][25]. - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to grow as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, positioning the new materials industry for rapid development [4][25]. - The photovoltaic and wind power sectors are thriving under the carbon neutrality initiative, with recommendations to focus on upstream raw material companies like Hosheng Silicon Industry and Lianhong New Technology [4][25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the potential of Novartis' Pluvicto in the nuclear medicine sector, particularly in the context of Radioligand Therapy (RDC), which is expected to drive growth in the nuclear medicine industry [4][15][26] - The report highlights that the nuclear medicine market in China is projected to reach 26 billion yuan by 2030, with significant growth potential driven by policy support and technological advancements [16][20] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, which has a leading integrated drug innovation platform, and ASP Isotopes Inc., which focuses on high-value isotope production [4][32][37] Group 2 - The report provides a market review for the week of January 19-23, 2026, noting that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 0.4%, while the pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 6.5% [3][40] - The report indicates that the top-performing stocks in the pharmaceutical sector during this week included Changyao Holdings (+70.4%) and Hualan Biological Engineering (+32.2%) [5][55] - The report discusses the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with pharmaceutical distribution and retail showing positive trends, while innovative drugs and CXO sectors lagged [5][43][66]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the ability of US debt entities to leverage has significantly weakened, with deteriorating government leverage capacity and rising corporate and household leverage rates that are difficult to sustain [2][8] - It notes that the expansion capacity of US demand and credit is deteriorating, making it challenging for non-US economies to experience significant demand and credit expansion [2][8] - The report suggests that the deterioration of dollar debt expansion capacity may drive a long-term decline in major global high ROE industries [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent rise in overseas commodities and technology stocks is essentially a risk-averse behavior of global financial capital in response to dollar debt issues [2][8] - It states that the deterioration of dollar credit implies chaos in global production, demand, and credit order, leading major global asset classes to gradually enter supply pricing, which may provide valuation premiums for production and non-US credit expansion capabilities [2][8] - The Chinese market is expected to be a slow and steady bull market in the long term, but it will experience significant volatility in the medium term due to the influence of the US [2][8] Group 3 - The report anticipates a style switch in the Chinese market within the next quarter, with assets driven by Chinese pricing expected to enter a long bull market, while US-priced assets may gradually become marginalized [2][8] - It expresses a long-term positive outlook on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [2][8] - In the short term, the report favors sectors such as space AI and domestic computing power [2][8] Group 4 - The report discusses the performance of the US PCE inflation, indicating a moderate inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year for both PCE and core PCE in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [7][11] - It highlights that actual consumption expenditure in the US for November 2025 also showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with core PCE consumption expenditure at the same rate [7][13] - The report notes a weakening in durable goods consumption, while dining and accommodation services showed resilience [7][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, with expectations for recovery driven by improving real estate sentiment and policy expectations [3][5] - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including Gujia Home, Oppein Home, and Sophia, while also suggesting attention to undervalued stocks like Minda Holdings and Zhibang Home [3] - The report anticipates profit growth for Minda Holdings with projected net profits of HKD 2.07 billion, HKD 2.12 billion, and HKD 2.21 billion for FY2026 to FY2028, corresponding to PE ratios of 9X and 8X [3] - For Goodbaby International, projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are HKD 150 million, HKD 344 million, and HKD 385 million, with a current valuation suggesting a potential for recovery [3] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a 14.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales of furniture for 2025, with a 2.2% decline in December [5] - Residential construction area decreased by 20.2% year-on-year for 2025, with a 20.6% decline in December [5] - The report emphasizes the low valuation and institutional holdings in the home furnishing sector, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 23, 2026, prices for various paper products have shown a decline, with white cardboard down by 5 CNY/ton and boxboard down by 52.8 CNY/ton [8] - The report indicates that major paper companies are planning to increase prices by 200 CNY/ton in late February to early March [8] - The report recommends companies with strong domestic production capabilities, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper, for investment [8] Consumer Goods - The report highlights a 9.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales for sports and entertainment products in December [5] - The consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from expanding channels and product price increases, particularly in oral care and medical products [5] - The report suggests investment opportunities in companies like Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, which are expected to perform well in the current market [5]