国轩高科（002074.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测；（注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 日收盘价） 业绩符合预期，优质客户持续突破 2025 年 04 月 27 日 ➢ 事件。2025 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。24 年公司全年实现营收 353.92 亿元，同比+11.98%；实现归母净利润 12.07 亿元， 同比+28.56%；扣非后归母净利润 2.63 亿元，同比+125.86%。25 年一季度实 现营收 90.55 亿元，同比+20.61%；实现归母净利润 1.01 亿元，同比+45.55%； 扣非后归母净利润 0.15 亿元，同比+37.59%。 ➢ Q4 拆分。营收和净利：公司 2024Q4 营收 102.17 亿元,同比+3.97%，环 比+21.91%；归母净利润为 7.94 亿元，同比+22.72%，环比+463.12%；扣非 后归母净利润为 2.05 亿元，同比+215.38%，环比+2462.50%。毛利率：2024Q4 毛利率为 18.05%，同比+1.28pcts，环比- ...

国轩高科（002074.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 业绩符合预期，优质客户持续突破 2025 年 04 月 27 日 ➢ 事件。2025 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。24 年公司全年实现营收 353.92 亿元，同比+11.98%；实现归母净利润 12.07 亿元， 同比+28.56%；扣非后归母净利润 2.63 亿元，同比+125.86%。25 年一季度实 现营收 90.55 亿元，同比+20.61%；实现归母净利润 1.01 亿元，同比+45.55%； 扣非后归母净利润 0.15 亿元，同比+37.59%。 ➢ Q4 拆分。营收和净利：公司 2024Q4 营收 102.17 亿元,同比+3.97%，环 比+21.91%；归母净利润为 7.94 亿元，同比+22.72%，环比+463.12%；扣非 后归母净利润为 2.05 亿元，同比+215.38%，环比+2462.50%。毛利率：2024Q4 毛利率为 18.05%，同比+1.28pcts，环比-0.28pct。净利率：2024Q4 净利率为 7.30%，同比+1.11pcts，环比+6. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.1% to 40 million yuan [1] - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644 stores. This includes 504 stores from acquisitions and 44 from new brands [2] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from the new Wuhan factory [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to be 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin was 25.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to additional costs from the new factory [3] Store Expansion - The company opened 711 new stores in Q1 2025, achieving a net increase of 501 stores, with a total of 5,644 stores. The closure rate improved compared to the previous quarter [2] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores throughout 2025, with expectations for single-store revenue to recover [4] Revenue Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.85 billion, 2.04 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.6%, 10.2%, and 7.7% [5][4] - The projected net profits for the same years are 260 million, 290 million, and 310 million yuan, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [5][4]

计算机行业动态报告 AI+政务：最具执行力的 AI 应用落地方向 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ AI 为政务办公实现效率提升。政务 IT 涉及大量办公场景（12345 热线、社 保、公积金等等），通过 AI 辅助有望大幅提升办公效率，新点软件承建的智能政 务助手"深小 i"，让公众通过日常对话式提问即可获取精准指引。该系统已整合 企业注册、社会保障、户籍办理等六大民生高频领域的智能化知识库，实际运行 数据显示，该平台在政务服务咨询场景下单次应答准确率达 90%，处理效能显著 优于传统人工模式。 ➢ 投资建议：DeepSeek 出圈引发国内 AI 落地进程加速，而近期深圳推出"AI+ 政务助手"大幅提升政务工作效率，也引起了社会广泛关注。我国政务信息化市 场空间广阔，包含招采、财政、税务、司法等大量专业的垂直领域，同时链接 B 端、C 端用户，AI 赋能带来的提效降本空间较大。同时政务信息化体系建设节奏 大多自上而下推动，在全年拥抱 AI 的浪潮下，AI+政务有望更快速落地。建议关 注：1）AI+政务产业链：新点软件、数字政通、博思软件、税友股份、中科江南、 南威软件；2）政务云与一体机产业链：科大讯飞 ...

有色金属周报 20250426 美对华关税政策缓和，工业金属价格持续反弹 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 本周（04/21-04/25）上证综指下跌 0.07%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.07%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.27%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金上涨 0.60%，COMEX 白银上涨 3.10%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+1.96%、+2.19%、+3.46%、 +1.16%、-0.18%、+1.97%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.90%、-4.66%、-7.83%、-2.68%、-1.01%、-1.40%。 ➢ 工业金属：美对华关税政策缓和，降息预期升温，内需维持强势，工业金属价格持 续反弹。核心观点：宏观层面关税矛盾缓和，美联储降息预期升温；国内旺季叠加贸易 套利反复，工业金属价格持续反弹。铜方面，供应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数报- 42.52 美元/吨，周度环比减少 7.81 美元/吨，海外 Antamina 铜矿事故停产，铜精矿供 应进一步趋紧，冶炼厂亏损加剧。需求端，国内铜线缆企业开工率 91.23%，环比增长 3. ...

视源股份（002841.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 Q1 收入稳增，毛利率环比企稳 2025 年 04 月 27 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 04 月 23 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季度业绩报告， 2024 年公司实现营收 224.01 亿元，同比增长 11.05%；归母净利润 9.71 亿元，同比下 降 29.13%；扣非归母净利润 8.37 亿元，同比下降 27.94%；拟现金分红总额 4.72 亿元， 分红率达 48.57%，提升 5.7pct。25Q1 营收 50.05 亿元，同比增长 11.35%；归母净利 润 1.62 亿元，同比下降 9.23%；扣非归母净利润为 1.04 亿元，同比下降 26.63%。 分析师 马天诣 执业证书： S0100521100003 邮箱： matianyi@mszq.com 分析师 范宇 执业证书： S0100525030002 邮箱： fanyu@mszq.com 相关研究 ➢ 24 年收入增速稳健，家用控制器及海外业务引领成长。分产品看，24 年 1）智能控 制部件营收达 102.74 亿元，同比增长 20.37%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH) [5] Core Views - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50% for two consecutive years, with a dividend yield of 4.7% based on the closing price on April 25, 2025 [3] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 2.40 billion, 2.78 billion, and 3.15 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.66, 0.77, and 0.87 yuan per share [3][4] - The company has effectively controlled costs in the first quarter of 2025, leading to a year-on-year increase in gross profit despite a decline in revenue [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 25.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.13% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 57.05% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.82 billion yuan, a decline of 5.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 597 million yuan, down 31.18% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced non-recurring gains of 127 million yuan in 2024 and non-recurring losses of 34 million yuan in Q1 2025 [1] Coal Production and Sales - In 2024, coal production and sales were 38.37 million tons and 35.54 million tons respectively, down 16.42% and 13.32% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, coal production increased significantly by 16.85% year-on-year to 9.94 million tons, and sales rose by 5.67% to 8.75 million tons [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 35.96%, an increase of 3.83 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective cost control [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.309 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 1.115 billion yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50.11% [3] - The high dividend payout ratio reflects the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders while pursuing growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 50.39 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 2.777 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 63.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 290 million CNY, up 184.50% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 515 million CNY, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 101 million CNY, reflecting an 89.60% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company has strategically divested its low-margin electronic product processing subsidiary, leading to a notable increase in gross margin, which reached 47.7% in Q1 2025, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively embracing AI technology, launching the "Vision Zero Booster" safety solution, which integrates AI with hardware for comprehensive safety management [3]. - The dual policy drive from domestic and international markets is accelerating the company's global market expansion, particularly in the commercial vehicle safety and information sectors [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of AI technology and its extensive industry experience, with projected net profits of 449 million CNY, 611 million CNY, and 793 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2,777 million CNY, with a projected revenue decrease of 8.7% to 2,536 million CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 3,217 million CNY in 2026 and 4,005 million CNY in 2027 [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 290 million CNY in 2024 to 449 million CNY in 2025, 611 million CNY in 2026, and 793 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.64 CNY in 2024 to 2.53 CNY in 2025, reaching 3.45 CNY in 2026 and 4.47 CNY in 2027 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [8][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows stable operations, with enhanced profitability in the coal business despite a decline in revenue and net profit [3][4][5]. - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy has been integrated into the company's financials, contributing to coal sales volume growth [4][6]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the injection of quality coal assets from the National Energy Group [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The coal production volume was 82.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume dropped by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [5][10]. - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year, with a coal business gross margin of 30.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 55.102 billion yuan in 2025, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.77 yuan [11][12]. - Revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a forecast of 330.7 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [12][14]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total power generation in Q1 2025 was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with a total installed capacity of 47,505 MW [7][10]. - The transportation business saw a decline in volume and profitability, with self-owned railway turnover down 11.6% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is advancing the construction of new coal mines, which are expected to enhance future production capacity [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) [4][7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 23.53% year-on-year to 30.312 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.89% to 2.71 billion yuan [1] - Coal sales volume declined by 8.1% year-on-year, while production increased by 6.3% to 36.8 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal dropped by 24.19% year-on-year to 551.2 yuan per ton, impacting overall profitability [2] - The chemical business showed improvement with a 39.08% increase in gross profit to 1.459 billion yuan, despite a 6.18% decline in selling price [3] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Northwest Mining for 14.066 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 30.312 billion yuan, down 23.53% year-on-year; net profit was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.89% [1] - Coal production increased to 36.8 million tons, while sales volume decreased to 31.43 million tons [2] - The gross profit from coal business fell by 32.77% to 5.937 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 34.27% [2] - Chemical business gross profit rose by 39.08% to 1.459 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.16% [3] - Power generation decreased to 1.793 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 51 million yuan [3] Strategic Developments - The company is acquiring a 51% stake in Northwest Mining, which has a total production capacity of 61.05 million tons per year [4] - This acquisition is a step towards achieving the company's goal of 300 million tons of raw coal production [4] Earnings Forecast - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.618 billion yuan, 11.626 billion yuan, and 12.098 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [4][6]