证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260131 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 11 只，合计发行规模约 115.53 亿元，较上周增加 31.53 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年、5 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、地方国有企业、大型民企、 中央国有企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为安徽省、北 京市、广东省、江苏省、江西省、浙江省；发行债券种类为超短期融资 券、其他金融机构债、企业 ABS、私募公司债、一般公司债、中期票据。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）绿色债券周成交额合计 671 亿元，较上周增 加 36 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 328 亿元、257 亿元和 57 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 81.71%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260131 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）银行间市场及交易所市场无新发行二级资本 债。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）二级资本债周成交量合计约 2994 亿元，较 上周减少 348 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 中行二级资本债 02BC （179.10 亿元）、25 农行二级资本债 04A（BC）（147.41 亿元）和 25 中行二级资本债 03A（BC）（110.91 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为广东省、山东省和山西省，分别约 为 2331 亿元、216 亿元和 140 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 1 月 23 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-1.62BP、-0.15BP、- 1.15BP；7Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周 涨跌幅分别为：3.09B ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to reach a profit turning point, with performance exceeding market expectations. The forecast for 2025 indicates a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected net profit of 137.22 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.67% [1][7] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in membrane shipments, with Q4 2025 expected to exceed 35 billion square meters, representing a year-on-year growth of over 70% [7] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, including lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolyte products, which are positioned to lead in performance metrics within the industry [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 13,602 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 137.22 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 2,536.42 million yuan in 2026 and 3,149.25 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to recover to 0.14 yuan in 2025, with further increases to 2.58 yuan in 2026 and 3.21 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 48.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 47.79 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 348.24 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 18.84 in 2026 and 15.17 in 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 to 420 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 428.4% to 692.6% compared to 2024 [7] - The core business net profit midpoint is projected at 380 million yuan, with significant impacts from share-based payment expenses estimated at 67.5 million yuan [7] - The strong growth in performance is attributed to sustained market demand in the examination training industry, operational reforms, and technological upgrades [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 3,458.98 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.10% [1] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 368.13 million yuan, a significant increase of 594.69% from 2024 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.87 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.90 [1] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on the "Direct Train" flagship product, enhancing operational efficiency through regional reforms and technological advancements [7] - The implementation of an employee stock ownership plan is anticipated to further release profits post-optimization of operations [7] Market Position - As a leading player in the public examination training sector with 20 years of experience, the company is positioned for accelerated growth [7] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 15.21 billion yuan, with a current share price of 77.32 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the large-size silicon carbide and space photovoltaic industrialization [1] - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a projected net profit for 2025 of 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89% [1] - The demand for space and overseas photovoltaic equipment is strong, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [1] - The company has planned a total production capacity of 900,000 silicon carbide substrates, with new applications opening up for 12-inch substrates [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in providing integrated solutions for silicon wafers, advanced packaging, and advanced processes [1] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a current PE of 61, 49, and 40 times [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.983 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 2.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 44.93% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.77 yuan per share [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 61.443 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.52 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the large-size silicon carbide and space photovoltaic industrialization [1] - The company's performance in 2025 is projected to meet expectations, with a forecasted net profit of 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89% [1] - The demand for space and overseas photovoltaic equipment is strong, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [1] - The company has planned a total production capacity of 900,000 silicon carbide substrates, with new applications opening up for 12-inch substrates [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in providing integrated solutions for silicon wafers, advanced packaging, and advanced processes [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.983 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted at 1.007 billion yuan, down from 2.510 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.77 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61.04 based on the current price [1] - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline to 24.79% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 8.36% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience an inflection point in its performance, particularly with the launch of its HVDC business [7] - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.03 to 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60% to 43% [7] - The establishment of the HVDC subsidiary marks the beginning of a second growth curve for the company, with expectations for product launches in early 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,497 million yuan in 2024 to 1,114 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 1,487 million yuan in 2026 and reaching 2,313 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 256 million yuan in 2024 to 129 million yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 233 million yuan in 2026 and 456 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to 3.07 yuan in 2025, before increasing to 5.54 yuan in 2026 and 10.85 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 210.75 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8,862.70 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 68.74 for 2025, decreasing to 19.42 by 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face a performance inflection point with the launch of its HVDC business, which is anticipated to drive significant growth [7] - The company’s 2025 performance is projected to see a decline in net profit, with estimates ranging from 1.03 to 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60% to 43% [7] - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on HVDC technology marks the beginning of a new growth phase for the company, with expectations for product launches in early 2026 [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to decline to 1,114 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 25.59% year-on-year, before rebounding to 1,487 million yuan in 2026 and 2,313 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop to 128.93 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 49.64%, but is projected to recover to 232.90 million yuan in 2026 and 456.31 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 80.64% and 95.92% respectively [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 3.07 yuan in 2025, with a significant increase to 10.85 yuan by 2027 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is reported at 210.75 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8,862.70 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 68.74 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 19.42 by 2027, indicating a potential for value appreciation as the HVDC business matures [1][8]

证券研究报告 乘用车1月月报：内需静待改善，出口韧性较强 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199790 2026年1月30日 核心观点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 ———————————————————————————————— ◼ 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑明显；批发层 面车企主动调节生产/库存节奏，环比下行。2025年12月新能源汽车零售渗透率58.7%，同环比分别+10.9/- 2.5pct。12月乘用车行业渠道去库6.9万辆，其中新能源车去库4.3万辆。12月新能源车格局基本保持稳定，其 中比亚迪市占率25%，环比+0pct；吉利市占率11%，环比-1pct。2026年1月乘用车以旧换新政策落地。 全球化数据跟踪：2025年12月东南亚市场新能源渗透率超预期，比亚迪出口表现超预期 投资建议与风险提示 2 ———————————————————————————————— —————— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the passenger car sector, particularly in the context of the new vehicle replacement policy and the resilience of exports [2][3]. Core Insights - The passenger car industry experienced a significant decline in retail sales in December 2025, with a year-on-year drop of 16% and a total retail volume of 227,000 units. The wholesale volume was 279,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [7][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 58.7% in December 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [10][12]. - The report highlights the stability of the NEV market, with BYD holding a market share of 25% and Geely at 11% in December 2025 [16]. Electric Vehicle Data Tracking - The report indicates that the old-for-new vehicle replacement policy was implemented in January 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand in the passenger car market [2][3]. - In December 2025, the NEV wholesale volume was 156,300 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [12]. - The report notes a significant inventory reduction in the passenger car sector, with a total decrease of 69,000 units in December 2025, including 43,000 units of NEVs [13]. Globalization Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of Chinese car manufacturers in international markets, noting that in December 2025, 641,000 passenger cars were exported, with 245,000 being NEVs, resulting in a penetration rate of 38.2% for NEVs [3][43]. - The report highlights the strong performance of BYD in exports, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the NEV penetration rate exceeded expectations [3][27]. - The market share of Chinese brands in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Europe, showed positive trends, with notable increases in the UK market [38][40].