Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the January FOMC meeting was to maintain the interest rate unchanged with a 10-2 vote, and Powell avoided political questions, which weakened market perceptions of the Fed's independence [1][15] - The market had already priced in a 30% probability of cumulative rate cuts by April, so the decision and guidance did not significantly impact the market [1][15] - Future focus includes the potential departure of Miran, government shutdown issues, and upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data, which could influence commodity price movements [1][15] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "tug-of-war" between the numerator and denominator in stock and bond pricing, indicating that the relationship between stocks and bonds is not stable and varies with economic conditions [2][16] - When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved corporate earnings, but rising interest rate expectations can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions [2][16] - Different sectors respond differently to economic drivers, with dividend stocks being more sensitive to discount rates, while growth stocks depend on future earnings expectations [2][16] Industry Analysis - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing significant growth driven by rising metal prices, with the global mining machinery market expected to reach approximately $135 billion by 2024 [3][17] - The report highlights that the mining machinery market has a high gross profit margin in the aftermarket, which accounts for about 50% of revenue, and emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure driven by rising metal prices and declining ore grades [3][17] - Investment recommendations include companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][17] Company-Specific Insights - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615) expects a net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131-189%, with Q4 showing a turnaround in profitability [18][19] - Daikin Heavy Industries (002487) anticipates a net profit of 1,050-1,200 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 122-153%, and is transitioning towards a full-service solution provider [20] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is projected to achieve revenue of 94.27 billion HKD for FY26, with a net profit of 8.87 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 50% over three years, supported by strategic store adjustments and product upgrades [21][22] - Xianhui Technology (688155) forecasts a net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, driven by overseas expansion and solid-state battery equipment layout, with a significant increase in profitability expected [23] - Ding Sheng New Materials (603876) anticipates a net profit of 520-550 million yuan for 2025, with a notable increase in profitability driven by rising aluminum prices and improved production efficiency [24]

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20260130 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 上海涉外经济创新高，北证 50 下跌 1.69% 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 相关研究： 《沪深北交易所提高融资保证金最低 比例，北证 50 上涨 0.98%》 2026-01-14 《工信部印发<推动工业互联网平台 高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028 年）>，北证 50 下跌 2.50%》 2026-01-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The mining machinery market has significant potential, with a high-margin aftermarket accounting for 50% of the market. The global mining machinery market size is expected to reach approximately $135 billion in 2024, comparable to the traditional construction machinery market. Key categories include excavators, mining trucks, loaders, bulldozers, rock drills, and grinders, with their respective market shares being approximately 40%, 25%, 15%, 10%, and 5% [1] - Rising metal prices are driving capital expenditures upward, with a lag of about 1-2 years from metal prices to mining investments. By 2026, prices for gold, silver, and copper are expected to reach historical highs, leading to a significant increase in mining capital expenditures. Additionally, declining ore grades are increasing the intensity of capital expenditures, creating a synergistic effect with rising metal prices [2] - Chinese manufacturers are gradually increasing their participation in the global mining market, driven by domestic mining companies expanding overseas. While foreign companies like Caterpillar and Komatsu dominate the market, Chinese brands are making significant advancements in large-tonnage products and are leading in electrification and automation technologies. This positions them favorably in the mid-to-low-end market and allows them to accelerate their presence in the high-end market [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, SANY International, Naipu Mining Machinery, Tongli Co., and Northern Heavy Industries [4]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 明阳智能（601615） 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 同比转正，收购德 华芯片进军国内卫星电源 Tier1【勘误版】 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 28,124 | 27,158 | 41,215 | 38,616 | 43,200 | | 同比（%） | (8.53) | (3.43) | 51.76 | (6.31) | 11.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 376.72 | 346.11 | 897.66 | 2,113.61 | 3,173.78 | | 同比（%） | (89.06) | (8.12) | 159.35 | 135.46 | 50.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 1.40 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 142.69 | 155.31 | 59. ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 明阳智能（601615） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 28,124 | 27,158 | 41,215 | 38,616 | 43,200 | | 同比（%） | (8.53) | (3.43) | 51.76 | (6.31) | 11.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 376.72 | 346.11 | 897.66 | 2,113.61 | 3,173.78 | | 同比（%） | (89.06) | (8.12) | 159.35 | 135.46 | 50.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 1.40 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 142.69 | 155.31 | 59.88 | 25.43 | 16.94 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 执 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | 20.71 | (8.98) | 50.00 | 12.23 | 11.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.43 | 22.44 | 14.96 | 13.33 | 12 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩符合预期，向全 套解决方案服务商进发！ 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,325 | 3,780 | 6,752 | 9,092 | 11,867 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 78.63 | 34.66 | 30.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.87 | 1,125.70 | 1,786.97 | 2,570.93 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 137.55 | 58.74 | 43.87 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.77 | 2.80 | 4.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 94.49 | 84.77 | 35.69 | 22.48 | 15.63 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded market expectations, with a projected net profit of 3.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.93% [8] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the downstream power and energy storage sectors, with a notable increase in overseas orders and revenue [8] - The company is positioned as a leader in module/pack equipment and structural components, which are expected to benefit from the growth in lithium battery and solid-state battery markets [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,448 million yuan in 2023 to 4,370 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 39.95 million yuan in 2023 to 521.29 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 16.27% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.32 yuan in 2023 to 4.12 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 87.09 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,011.31 million yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 275.60 in 2023 to 21.12 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings grow [1][9] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, with overseas orders accounting for 68% of total orders by the end of 2024 [8] - Collaboration with Qingtao Energy for the development of solid-state battery equipment is a key strategic initiative, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [8]

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭亚男 执业证书：S0600523070003 guoyn@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 胡隽颖 大金重工（002487） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩符合预期，向全 套解决方案服务商进发！ 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,325 | 3,780 | 6,752 | 9,092 | 11,867 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 78.63 | 34.66 | 30.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.87 | 1,125.70 | 1,786.97 | 2 ...