金融工程专题 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 2026 年 01 月 28 日 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 《遗传算法赋能交易行为因子 —市场微观结构（20）》-2023.8.6 《深度学习赋能交易行为因子 —市场微观结构（24）》-2024.5.24 《深度学习赋能风格轮动与多 策 略 融 合 — 开 源 量 化 评 论 （103）》-2024.12.12 《深度学习赋能技术分析—开 源量化评论（109）》-2025.6.25 深度学习赋能因子挖掘 2.0：综合应用方案 ——市场微观结构系列（32） 魏建榕（分析师） 盛少成（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AWS and Google have initiated a price increase in cloud services, which is expected to be followed by domestic cloud vendors. This price adjustment reflects strong downstream demand for computing power due to rising costs of CPUs and storage, as well as increased computational needs from complex task execution by AI agents [4][7] - The open-source project Clawdbot has gained significant attention in the tech community, indicating a growing demand for general AI agents that can operate continuously and handle complex tasks, thereby increasing the need for computing power [5][7] - Domestic model vendors are actively developing general-purpose AI agents, which is anticipated to lead to breakthroughs in productivity tools and daily life assistance [6][7] Summary by Sections Cloud Pricing Trends - AWS has raised its EC2 machine learning capacity block prices by approximately 15%, with specific instance costs increasing from $34.61 to $39.80 per hour [4] - Google Cloud will adjust its data transmission prices starting May 1, 2026, with North America seeing a price increase from $0.04 to $0.08 per GB [4] AI Agent Development - Clawdbot, created by PSPDFKit founder Peter Steinberger, has received over 65,800 stars on GitHub since its launch in late 2025, showcasing its compatibility with multiple operating systems and productivity tools [5] - Kimi has released the K2.5 model, enhancing its agent capabilities for everyday office software, while Alibaba's Qianwen app has integrated various services to function as an AI shopping assistant [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI infrastructure supply chain, with key recommendations including companies like Deepin Technology, Parallel Technology, Qingyun Technology, and others that are expected to benefit from the rising demand for computing power [7]

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Themes - The market is currently in a major cycle of thematic investment, with significant opportunities emerging in areas like humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, and Hainan Free Trade Port[2] - Thematic investments are expected to become more active in 2026, driven by abundant liquidity and technological breakthroughs in AI[2] - Historical patterns show that thematic investments thrive during periods of weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, often triggered by technological breakthroughs and policy guidance[2][17] Group 2: Selection Criteria for Strong Themes - The strategy for selecting strong themes is summarized as "buy new, not old; buy big, not small," aiming to avoid trapped positions and benefit from high elasticity[3][22] - New themes often lack valuation anchors, allowing for greater price appreciation potential compared to established themes[3][22] - Strong themes should encompass significant narratives and capacity, capable of attracting substantial institutional investment[3][23] Group 3: Five Potential Strong Themes for 2026 - The five potential strong themes for 2026 include AI+ (AI for Science), embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion energy, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces[27] - AI+ is shifting focus from computational power to accelerated application penetration, with significant growth in AI demand observed in both the U.S. and China[28] - Embodied intelligence is seen as a core battleground for future manufacturing, with the U.S. excelling in software and China in hardware[44][45] Group 4: Specific Insights on Key Themes - Nuclear fusion energy is recognized as a strategic priority, with significant advantages over traditional energy sources, including near-infinite fuel supply and alignment with global carbon neutrality goals[4][27] - Quantum technology represents a disruptive technological revolution, with three core pillars: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum measurement, poised to transform existing technologies[5][27] - Brain-computer interfaces are positioned as a national strategic focus, with ongoing breakthroughs expected to drive industry transformation and reshape multiple ecosystems[6][27]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reversing a three-year decline[3] - December 2025 saw a significant profit increase of 18.4% year-on-year, reaching 5.3%[4] - The profit margin improved by 15.5 percentage points compared to previous months, indicating a recovery in profitability[4] Group 2: Revenue and Costs - December 2025 revenue decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, a decline of 3.0 percentage points from the previous value[4] - The cost structure for every 100 yuan of revenue in December included costs of 83.6 yuan, expenses of 10.7 yuan, and profit contributions from investment income of 5.6 yuan[5] - The "investment income + other income" significantly improved, suggesting a strong performance in the stock market and commodity prices[5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The profit share of the midstream sector rose to 40.7%, while upstream and downstream sectors saw varying performance[6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as integrated circuit manufacturing, showed remarkable growth rates of 172.6% and 128.0% respectively[6] - The profit growth gap between "anti-involution" and "non-anti-involution" industries narrowed to -2.6 percentage points, indicating a convergence in performance[6] Group 4: Inventory and Economic Outlook - The inventory-to-sales ratio increased, indicating a need for further domestic demand policies to stimulate the economy[7] - Overall, the industrial profit trend suggests a positive outlook for early 2026, supported by anticipated policy measures and a favorable base effect[7] - Risks include potential policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-elasticity player in the egg cycle, with growth driven by international expansion and lysozyme projects [2] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 80 million to 92 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.44% to 101.75% [2] - The report highlights the successful launch of the Sichuan Oufu processing base, which enhances the company's supply chain capabilities and product gross margins due to declining raw egg prices [3] - The international egg price surge in 2025 presents an opportunity for the company to expand its overseas market presence, with successful exports of its lysozyme project contributing to new profit growth [4] Financial Summary - The company expects revenue to grow from 906 million yuan in 2024 to 1.131 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 84 million yuan, up from 46 million yuan in 2024, indicating an 84.3% year-on-year growth [6] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 16.6% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025, while net margin is projected to rise from 5.0% to 7.4% [6][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.22 yuan in 2024 to 0.41 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 49.3 to 26.7 [6]

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -26% 0% 26% 53% 79% 106% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《重视 AI 云 IAAS 稀缺性：AIDC 及 算力租赁—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 《重视边际变化：卫星和国产 AI 链— 行业周报》-2026.1.25 《重视硅光和 CPO 链投资机会—行业 点评报告》-2026.1.21 重视通信涨价方向：AI 云 IAAS 和光纤 ——行业点评报告 蒋颖（分析师） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 亚马逊 AWS 宣布涨价，AI 云基础设施稀缺性或日益凸显 2026 年 1 月 23 日，全球云计算巨头亚马逊云科技宣布对其面向大模型训练的 EC2 机器学习容量块实施约 15%的价格上调，这是 AWS 长达约二十年首次打破。 "只降不涨"的定价传统。机器学习容量块是 AWS 为应对高性能 GPU 等稀缺 计算资源供需失衡所推出的定制化服务模式，用户可提前预订指定型号的 GPU 实例，确保 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The commercial vehicle industry is experiencing a robust recovery driven by domestic demand policies and a significant increase in heavy truck sales, with wholesale sales expected to exceed 1.144 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 27% [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has reached a historical high, with sales in 2025 reaching 231,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 182% [4]. - The heavy truck export market is thriving, with exports reaching approximately 330,000 units in 2025, marking a record high and indicating a shift towards direct investment and localized operations in overseas markets [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the domestic heavy truck wholesale sales reached 819,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.4% [3]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has expanded to include vehicles meeting National IV standards and below, boosting domestic demand [3]. Segment Analysis - The new energy heavy truck segment has seen explosive growth, with a monthly penetration rate exceeding 38% in December 2025 [4]. - Natural gas heavy trucks have also shown steady demand, with a significant recovery in the second half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 138% in October [4]. Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group maintained its position as the industry leader with annual sales of 305,000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 26.7% [5]. - Foton Motor achieved a remarkable year-on-year growth of 102.7%, with annual sales reaching 142,000 units, marking a doubling in sales [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies as beneficiaries of the industry's recovery, including China National Heavy Duty Truck A+H, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, and others [6].

Macro Economic Overview - The transaction volume and price of second-hand houses have both increased, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [6][29] - Construction activity has shown seasonal improvement, with cement dispatch rates and grinding machine operation rates higher than the same period in 2025 [3][4] - Industrial production has shown mixed results, with strong performance in chemicals and automotive steel tires, while coking has lagged [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The allocation ratio for food and beverage stocks has decreased to a new low of 6.1% in Q4 2025, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a continued reduction in holdings by active equity funds [10][12] - The white liquor sector has seen a decrease in fund allocation, with the proportion of white liquor holdings falling from 3.2% in Q3 2025 to 2.9% in Q4 2025 [11] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in Q1 2026 due to the upcoming Spring Festival, which will drive demand for inventory replenishment [13][15] Communication Industry - The announcement by Amazon AWS to raise prices for machine learning capacity blocks by approximately 15% highlights the increasing scarcity of AI cloud infrastructure [19][22] - The investment of $2 billion by NVIDIA in CoreWeave underscores the strong demand for AI computing resources [20][22] - The release of Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking model indicates the growing capabilities of domestic AI models, which may significantly boost demand for AI cloud infrastructure [21][22] Coal Mining Industry - Coal prices have improved in Q4 2025, with thermal coal prices averaging 824.9 RMB/ton, up 8% quarter-on-quarter, and coking coal prices averaging 1725.7 RMB/ton, up 10% [23][24] - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound as supply-side policies restrict production and demand increases during the heating season [25][26] Real Estate and Construction Industry - Public funds have reduced their allocation to the real estate sector to 0.43% in Q4 2025, the lowest since 2021, reflecting a cautious outlook on the sector [27][28] - Recent policy changes, including tax reductions on second-hand housing and relaxed purchase restrictions, indicate a supportive stance towards stabilizing the real estate market [30][29] Company-Specific Insights - IFBH has initiated systematic adjustments in product, management, and channel areas, leading to improved fundamentals and a maintained "buy" rating [30][31] - Ximai Foods is expected to see profit elasticity due to strong market demand during the Spring Festival and declining raw material costs, with a projected net profit increase of 31.5% in 2025 [35][38] - Jinchuang Group is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the rail transit sector, with expected net profits of 6.02 billion RMB in 2025 [40][42]

Group 1: Industry Perspective on Institutional Research - The research highlights an increase in institutional research activity in the automotive, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors [3][4][12] - Weekly data shows a slight decline in total research counts across the A-share market, but the numbers are higher than the same period in 2025, indicating ongoing low research enthusiasm [13][20] - Monthly data for December 2025 indicates a decrease in total research counts compared to December 2024, with a total of 1,661 instances of research conducted [20][23] Group 2: Individual Stock Perspective on Institutional Research - Companies such as Taili Technology, Jiemai Technology, and Tianlu Technology received significant market attention, with high research counts in the past week [28][30] - In the last month, companies like Taihe New Materials, Huichuan Technology, and Chaojie Co., Ltd. also garnered considerable interest from institutional investors [33][34] - Taihe New Materials, positioned in the high-end chemical industry, has been frequently researched, with five instances of institutional research last week, focusing on its applications in commercial aerospace and computing centers [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of valuation and fundamentals, presenting significant layout value. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery trend. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is becoming clearer, signaling a potential bottoming out of industry demand. The current valuation and policy bottom are resonating, gradually releasing pessimistic expectations and providing a safety margin for investment [7][35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with resilient demand for consumer goods and a continuous upward trend in the snack sector. The mismatch in the timing of the Spring Festival is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of stocking demand. The sector is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q1 2026 [7][35] Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.1%, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025. The allocation ratio for active equity funds was 4.0%, slightly down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating a continued reduction in food and beverage allocations by active equity funds [4][13] - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q4 2025, with a general trend of reduced allocation to food and beverage companies. Notably, companies like Yurun Agriculture, Yili, and West Wheat Food saw an increase in market value held by funds, while companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai experienced significant decreases [6][29][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: first, consider companies like Shede Liquor that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess high elasticity; second, allocate to industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong performance stability and risk resistance. The Spring Festival stocking is expected to be a core catalyst for the sector's performance [7][34] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in three sub-sectors: raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the catering supply chain. Companies such as Wei Long, Gan Yuan Food, Yan Jin Pu Zi, West Wheat Food, and Yili are identified as key investment targets, with beneficiaries including Yurun Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, Anjixin Food, and Guoquan [7][38]