金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 2025 年 04 月 24 日 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 陈 威（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070027 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 《4 月转债配置：看好平衡低估风格转 债—转债配置月报》-2025.4.21 《筹码结构视角下的动量反转融合— 开源量化评论（108）》-2025.4.17 《农业板块的资金行为监测—金融工 程定期》-2025.4.13 主动权益基金加仓消费板块，固收基金规 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 426 million yuan, up 17.61% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 1.422 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.62%. The net profit for Q4 was 112 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.32% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.75%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.37 yuan per share (tax included) [4][6] - The company is focusing on solidifying its operations in antioxidant agents, lubricant additives, and life sciences while advancing the localization of PI materials, aiming for multi-level high-quality development [4][6] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 was 5.278 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 5.687 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.7%, and for 2025, it is expected to reach 6.259 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.1% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 362 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.0%. The forecast for 2024 is 426 million yuan, up 17.6%, and for 2025, it is projected to be 516 million yuan, representing a growth of 21.0% [6][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 21.2%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected to be 7.3%, up 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] Business Segmentation - In 2024, the company’s revenue from antioxidant agents, light stabilizers, U-pack, and lubricant additives was 1.730 billion yuan, 2.086 billion yuan, 614 million yuan, and 1.063 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.99%, 11.31%, -3.77%, and 15.40% [4][6] - The sales volume for antioxidant agents and lubricant additives was 123,600 tons and 58,300 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.40% and 23.23% [4][6] - The life sciences business generated revenue of 3.63 million yuan, indicating a transition from research and development to dual-track operations involving both R&D and market [4][6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.25 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.6, 10.9, and 9.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 10.4% by 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant cost advantages in breeding, and its high dividend payouts reflect its investment value. The company reported a revenue of 104.92 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.46% [4][5] - The company is expected to navigate through the industry cycle successfully, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and the introduction of a profit forecast for 2027. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.98 billion yuan, 13.26 billion yuan, and 19.36 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 30.18 million pigs, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan per kilogram, up 12.83% [5] - The total breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.4 yuan compared to the previous year, and it further declined to 12.6-12.8 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2025 [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, which, along with share buybacks, totals 2.97 billion yuan, accounting for 32% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 106.71 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, and net profit is expected to be 11.98 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% increase [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.4% in 2024 to 19.3% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 8.8% to 11.2% in the same period [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.80 yuan in 2025, 1.99 yuan in 2026, and 2.91 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.4, 8.5, and 5.8 [7]

| 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 16.33 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 20.75/13.58 | | 总市值(亿元) | 864.11 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 864.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 52.92 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 52.91 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 46.0 | 股价走势图 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） ——公司信息更新报告 基础化工/农化制品 盐湖股份（000792.SZ） Q1 氯化钾价格上行助力业绩高增，五矿增持彰显发 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 盐湖股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q4 业绩超预期，2025Q1 业绩 同比预增，4 万吨锂盐产能将有序释放 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.3.31 金益腾（分析师） 徐正凤（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S079 ...

石油石化/炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346.SH） 炼化景气度回暖，2025Q1 扣非归母净利润环比大增 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.23/12.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.49 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒力石化 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《公司具备盈利韧性，未来关注业绩 弹性和高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.21 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，新材料产能 逐 步 投 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 目前公司已经结束本轮资本开支高峰期，后续经营重心将更加突出精细成本管 控、降低负债和强化分红。进入 202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 426 million yuan, up 17.61% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on strengthening its antioxidant and lubricant additive businesses while advancing the localization of PI materials, aiming for multi-level high-quality development [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.37 yuan per share (tax included) [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.687 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.259 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 516 million yuan in 2025 to 597 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 21.0% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 21.4% in 2025, slightly improving to 21.9% in 2026 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.25 yuan in 2025 to 2.60 yuan in 2026 [6] Business Performance - In 2024, the company's antioxidant, light stabilizer, U-pack, and lubricant additive segments achieved revenues of 1.730 billion, 2.086 billion, 614 million, and 1.063 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.99%, 11.31%, -3.77%, and 15.40% [4] - The sales volume for antioxidant and lubricant additives increased by 6.40% and 23.23% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The company’s subsidiary, Jinzhou Kangtai, achieved a net profit of 44.06 million yuan in 2024, successfully fulfilling its three-year performance commitment [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant advantages in breeding costs and high dividends, highlighting its investment value. The 2024 revenue reached 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.46%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 24.33 billion yuan, an increase of 11.37%, and net profit was 2.00 billion yuan, up 261.92% [4][5] - The company is expected to navigate through the cycle and achieve profitability due to its leading cost control in the industry and the gradual recovery of domestic pig prices [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 30.18 million pigs, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan per kilogram, up 12.83%. For Q1 2025, sales reached 8.59 million pigs, a 19.69% increase [5] - The total breeding cost for pigs in 2024 was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.4 yuan compared to the previous year. In Q1 2025, the cost dropped to 12.6-12.8 yuan per kilogram [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, representing 32% of the net profit [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.98 billion yuan, 13.26 billion yuan, and 19.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.80 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.91 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.4, 8.5, and 5.8 for the respective years [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.145 billion yuan, up 22.52% year-on-year and down 24.80% quarter-on-quarter. The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.248 billion, 5.774 billion, and 6.107 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The company is strengthening its position as a leader in domestic potassium chloride and a low-cost model for lithium carbonate, actively integrating into the China Minmetals system and the Chinese salt lake industry, aiming for high-quality development [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced approximately 964,900 tons of potassium chloride (down 14.1% year-on-year) and sold about 891,100 tons (up 16.1% year-on-year). The average market price for potassium chloride was 2,812 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. The average price for lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year [6][7] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 53.44% and 40.41%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [7] Market Outlook - As of April 23, 2025, the market prices for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were 2,720 yuan/ton and 69,500 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year changes of +20.9% and -38.2%, respectively. The short-term outlook for potassium chloride indicates a loose supply and weak price adjustments, with attention needed on large contract negotiations and summer fertilizer stocking [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.99 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.5, 15.0, and 14.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][8]

石油石化/炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346.SH） 炼化景气度回暖，2025Q1 扣非归母净利润环比大增 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.23/12.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.49 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒力石化 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《公司具备盈利韧性，未来关注业绩 弹性和高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.21 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，新材料产能 逐 步 投 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 《Q1 业绩同环比高增，看好炼化龙头 盈利弹性与远期成长性—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.24 | ...

农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持股占比下降，中宠 股份获逆势增持 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持 2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股环比下降，受中美关税升级催化，2025Q2 农业 板块公募重仓持股或环比提升。2023Q4 以来农业板块公募重仓持股环比持续下 降，2025Q1 农业板块总流通市值降至 12367 亿元，环比-0.40%，占 A 股流通市 值比重降至 1.69%，环比-0.03pct。从公募重仓持股看，2025Q1 农业板块重仓持 股市值占公募股票投资总市值 0.40%（ ...