Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The report outlines 21 financial support measures to enhance the construction of the "New Corridor" through six core initiatives[8] - The first initiative focuses on improving the financial organization collaboration system to enhance service quality and efficiency[4] - The second initiative aims to build a high-quality capital circulation system to alleviate funding bottlenecks in infrastructure and logistics[4] Group 2: Economic Development Goals - The "New Corridor" is expected to facilitate the formation of a new pattern of opening up, linking land and sea, and promoting mutual assistance between the east and west[8] - It aims to support the western development strategy by transforming the region from an open laggard to a frontier of openness[18] - The corridor integrates various transportation modes, covering 127 countries and regions with 583 ports, enhancing trade connectivity[13] Group 3: Financial Innovations and Reforms - The report emphasizes the need for institutional reforms to optimize the capital settlement system, including simplifying cross-border trade settlement processes[39] - It highlights the construction of digital financial service platforms to support the intelligent transformation of corridor finance[5] - The establishment of a comprehensive financial service platform, "Central Bank West Land-Sea Intelligent Integration," is proposed to enhance financial data sharing and service efficiency[45] Group 4: Risk Management and Challenges - The report identifies risks related to inadequate policy understanding and potential delays in policy implementation[55] - It stresses the importance of cross-province and cross-border financial regulatory cooperation to mitigate financial risks associated with the corridor[52]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2025.12.25） 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-12-25 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美"到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 12 月 25 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为+ 0.86%，收于 1,457.96 点。北证 50 指 数开盘点位为 1,443.89 点，最高点位达 1,466.29 点，最低点位为 1,440.8 ...

ESG 专题报告 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 银河 ESG 评级体系及研究 核心观点 2025 年 12 月 25 日 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 2.【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合策 略新径 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 银河 ESG 评级体系目标是聚焦 ESG 底层数据与股价波动、公司基本面表 现的相关性分析，为市场参与方提供兼具参考价值与实操意义的评级依 据。评级过程严格遵循"自主、公开、完备、可比、时效、风控"六大核心准 则，保障评级规范性与结果公正性。覆盖范围全面囊括全部 A 股上市公司， 并基于投资端需求细分 31 个行业，实现行业内与跨行业的可比分析。指标架 构采用四层穿透式逻辑架构，构建维度间相互支撑、逻辑贯通的指标体系，确 保评级维度的全面性与系统性。评级矩阵由 ESG 专业研究团队与 ...

Group 1: U.S. AI Initiatives - The U.S. government has launched the "U.S. Tech Force" program to mobilize national AI capabilities, involving agencies like OPM, OMB, GSA, and OSTP[7] - The program includes 28 initial private sector partners such as Adobe, Amazon Web Services, and AMD, with plans for further expansion[7] - This initiative reflects a broader trend of nations reorganizing resources as AI evolves from an industrial tool to a foundational national capability[10] Group 2: Global AI Developments - China is focusing on AI, computing power, and data as key components of its "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a consensus on digital economic development[3] - The EU is advancing its AI governance framework, with a focus on enforceable regulations and expanding computational power[20] - Other countries, including South Korea and Japan, are enhancing their AI and semiconductor competitiveness through national capital and institutional tools[22][23] Group 3: AI Governance and Infrastructure - The U.S. is moving towards a unified AI governance framework, with federal oversight of AI regulation marking a new phase in governance[17] - The expansion of AI infrastructure in Europe is characterized by a dual approach of sovereign power and commercial capital[21] - AI safety and data governance are transitioning from principles to actionable tools, indicating a systematic approach to regulation[15]

Economic Overview - GDP is projected to grow from 29.83 trillion to 31.10 trillion from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025[3] - The GDP growth rates for Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 are forecasted at -0.6% and 3.8% respectively, indicating fluctuations in economic performance[3] Sector Performance - The services sector is expected to increase from 20.35 trillion in Q4 2024 to 21.11 trillion in Q3 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% in Q3 2025[3] - The manufacturing sector shows a modest growth from 6.39 trillion to 6.55 trillion, with a growth rate of 3.1% in Q3 2025[3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is projected to rise by 4.3% in Q3 2025, indicating inflationary pressures[3] - Consumer spending is expected to grow steadily, with a forecasted increase of 3.9% in Q3 2025[3] Investment Trends - Business investments are anticipated to recover, with a growth rate of 2.2% in Q3 2025, following a decline in previous quarters[3] - The construction sector is projected to see a growth of 3.7% in Q3 2025, reflecting increased infrastructure spending[3]

行业月报 ·建筑行业 推动投资止跌回稳,着力稳定房地产市场 核心观点 2025年12月23日 建筑行业 推荐 维持 分析师 龙天光 ☎：021-2025-2646 网：longtianguang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519060004 2025-12-22 相对沪深 300 表现图 -10% -20% 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 推动投资止跌回稳,高质量推进城市更新。1-11月,全国固定资产投资(不 0 含农户）444035 亿元,同比下降 2.6%,增速降幅较 1-10 月扩大 0.9pct。中 央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议提出 2026 年要坚持内 需主导,建设强大国内市场。推动投资止跌回稳,适当增加中央预算内投资规 模,优化实施"两重"项目,优化地方政府专项债券用途管理,继续发挥新型 政策性金融工具作用,有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。我国城 镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期,城市发展正从 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote high-quality urban renewal, with a focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government special bond usage [3][4] - It highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment and real estate sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% in real estate investment and 7.8% in sales area from January to November 2025 [3][48] - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in order volumes and market expectations, with the construction PMI rising to 49.6 in November 2025 [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. New Orders and Market Expectations in the Construction Industry - The construction PMI increased to 49.6 in November, indicating a slight recovery in industry sentiment [6][7] - The new orders index rose to 46.1, reflecting improved market expectations [7] 2. Fixed Asset Investment Growth Slows - Fixed asset investment from January to November 2025 totaled 444,035 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 5.3% [3][16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year [16] 3. Infrastructure Investment Growth Continues to Decline - Broad infrastructure investment growth was recorded at 0.13%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month [27] - Specific sectors like transportation and public facilities saw declines, with water management investment down by 6.3% [31][29] 4. Real Estate Investment and Sales Area Growth Decline - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% [48] - New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and completion rates also fell, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [49][48] 5. Promoting Investment Stabilization - The report suggests that the construction industry is experiencing increased concentration and is currently valued at historical low levels, indicating potential for recovery [3][4] - It recommends focusing on urban renewal, infrastructure projects, and high-dividend stocks as key investment themes [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) - **Model Construction Idea**: QRF is an extension of Random Forest, designed to estimate the full conditional distribution of response variables. It predicts not only the conditional mean but also the quantiles of the distribution, making it suitable for short-term risk control and tail risk identification in volatile markets like technology indices [28][40][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Random Forest generates a collection of decision trees using subsets of data. Each tree predicts the conditional mean of the response variable [36][37] 2. QRF extends this by retaining all observed values in each node, enabling the estimation of conditional quantiles. The conditional distribution is expressed as: $$F(y|X=x)=P(Y\leq y|X=x)=E(1_{[Y\leq y]}|X=x)$$ [40] 3. The prediction for a quantile is calculated as: $$E(1_{\{Y\leq y\}}|X=x)=\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}(x)\,1_{\{Y\leq y\}}=P(Y\leq y|X=x)$$ [41] 4. The process involves selecting dense quantile points, generating trees, calculating weights, and approximating the distribution through quantile interpolation [43] - **Model Evaluation**: QRF effectively captures the short-term distribution of asset returns, especially for tail risks, and provides reliable predictions for risk control and asset selection [28][40][41] 2. Model Name: Fama-French Five-Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates and attributes the returns of risky assets by incorporating five systematic risk dimensions: market, size, value, profitability, and investment factors [44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model extends the CAPM formula: $$E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_1(R_m - R_f) + \beta_2SMB + \beta_3HML + \beta_4RMW + \beta_5CMA$$ [45] 2. Factor definitions: - **MKT**: Market factor, calculated as the weighted average return of all stocks minus the risk-free rate [49] - **SMB**: Size factor, representing the return difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks [49] - **HML**: Value factor, representing the return difference between high book-to-market and low book-to-market stocks [49] - **RMW**: Profitability factor, representing the return difference between high and low profitability stocks [49] - **CMA**: Investment factor, representing the return difference between conservative and aggressive investment firms [49] 3. Weekly factor data is used as input variables for QRF to predict weekly return quantiles of technology indices [52] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive framework for explaining asset returns and serves as a robust input for QRF predictions [44][45][49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. QRF Model - **Annualized Return**: 24.19% (2020-2025), 87.17% (2025) [86] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.16 (2020-2025), 2.91 (2025) [86] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.91 (2020-2025), 8.73 (2025) [86] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -26.70% (2020-2025), -9.99% (2025) [86] - **Cumulative Return**: 245.45% (2020-2025), with an excess return of 156.10% over the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index [86] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Quantile-Based Return Metrics - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantile-based metrics (e.g., 50% and 75% quantiles) represent the central tendency and upper tail of the predicted return distribution [61] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use QRF to predict the 50% and 75% quantiles of the return distribution [61] 2. Calculate the average return as: $$E(X) = \int_{-\infty}^{+\infty} Xf(X)dX$$ where \(f(X)\) is the probability density function [61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC values for these metrics are 0.0642 (50% quantile), 0.0582 (75% quantile), and 0.0719 (average return), indicating predictive effectiveness [62] 2. Factor Name: Risk-Adjusted Return Metrics - **Factor Construction Idea**: These metrics evaluate returns per unit of risk, incorporating Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios [63] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Sharpe Ratio**: $$Sharpe = \frac{E(R) - R_f}{\sigma}$$ 2. **Sortino Ratio**: $$Sortino = \frac{E(R) - R_f}{\sigma_{down}}$$ 3. **Omega Ratio**: $$Omega = \frac{E(R_{up}) \cdot P_{up}}{E(R_{down}) \cdot P_{down}}$$ where \(P_{up}\) and \(P_{down}\) are the probabilities of positive and negative returns, respectively [63] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC values are 0.0616 (Sharpe), 0.0581 (Sortino), and 0.0602 (Omega), confirming their effectiveness [64] 3. Factor Name: Win Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: Win rate measures the probability of achieving positive returns [64] - **Factor Construction Process**: $$WinRate = \frac{\text{Number of positive return samples}}{\text{Total number of samples}}$$ [64] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC value is 0.0586, indicating its predictive validity [64] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Quantile-Based Return Metrics - **50% Quantile IC**: 0.0642 [62] - **75% Quantile IC**: 0.0582 [62] - **Average Return IC**: 0.0719 [62] 2. Risk-Adjusted Return Metrics - **Sharpe Ratio IC**: 0.0616 [64] - **Sortino Ratio IC**: 0.0581 [64] - **Omega Ratio IC**: 0.0602 [64] 3. Win Rate - **Win Rate IC**: 0.0586 [64]

中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 许冬石：中国银河证券宏观分析师、新发展研究院学术委员会执行负责人 路自愿：中国银河证券新发展研究院区域经济研究员 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8357-4134 ：xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 路自愿 ：136-7105-7587 ：luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070001 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 12 月上半月，提示重点关注中央经济工作会议：会议直面困难挑战，明确指 出供强需弱突出。明年宏观政策要求"跨""逆"结合 。货币政策表态更加积 极。同时，会提注重做好统筹内外部均衡 ，在外部压力暂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various economic indicators and market trends during different time intervals, including price changes, industry growth, and investment-related data [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Time Interval Analysis - **Market and Industry Indicators**: During Dec 15 - Dec 19, 2025 (also Dec 21, 2025), there were changes in multiple market and industry indicators such as shipping (BDI), inflation (CPI, PPI), and financial rates (SHIBOR, BPDR, BPGC). For example, the BDI increased by a certain percentage, and CPI and PPI had specific growth rates [1][3] - **Industry and Investment**: Different industries showed distinct trends. The shipping industry had fluctuations in freight rates; the chemical industry had changes in production and sales volumes; and the financial market had adjustments in interest rates and investment yields [1][3] Other Time Interval Analysis - **Long - Term Trends**: Analyses of long - term data from various sources (Wind) showed trends in different economic and market indicators over years, which could help in understanding the overall economic situation and making investment decisions [13][22] - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: Specific industries like shipping, chemical, and finance were analyzed in detail, including factors affecting their performance, such as supply and demand, cost changes, and policy impacts [1][3]