Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector aim to prevent monopolistic behaviors while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standards [4] - The prices in the industry continue to rise, indicating a recovery, with silicon material prices increasing by 9.83% week-on-week to 59,200 CNY/ton [4] - The commercial space sector is emerging, with plans for deploying solar energy satellites, which could lead to significant advancements in space photovoltaic technology [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to silicon material integration in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on preventing monopolistic practices [4] - Compliance measures are being established to ensure fair competition among industry participants [4] Industry Performance - The prices of N-type silicon wafers and cells have seen increases, with N-type cell prices rising to 0.39 CNY/W and TOPCon module prices reaching 0.7 CNY/W [4] - The industry is expected to turn profitable in 2026 as terminal demand recovers [4] Technological Advancements - The report emphasizes the potential of space photovoltaic technology, which can generate energy continuously and is projected to become commercialized in the next 10-15 years [4] - The focus is on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaics, such as Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 0.22% to close at 1,496.28 points on January 7, 2026, with a trading volume of 275.48 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.09% [1][2] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 47.70 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and STAR Market [1][8] - The sectors with the largest gains include Oil & Petrochemicals (+6.0%), Nonferrous Metals (+5.4%), and Communications (+1.6%), while the sectors with the largest declines include Computers (-2.2%), Defense & Military (-1.8%), and Pharmaceuticals & Biology (-1.5%) [1][2] Trading Performance - On January 7, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 903.09 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 549.77 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume was 10.35 billion shares, indicating a recovery compared to the average daily trading volume of 19.40 billion yuan from the previous week [1][5] Stock Performance - Among the 287 listed companies, 95 saw an increase in stock price, while 187 experienced a decline. The top gainers included Jiaxian Co. (+25.68%), Huitong New Materials (+16.83%), and Jiuling Technology (+8.29%) [1][6] - The largest declines were observed in Jinhao Medical (-14.76%), Tianming Technology (-12.58%), and Guoyuan Technology (-11.59%) [1][7] Valuation Insights - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange companies is 47.70 times, with the highest sector being Nonferrous Metals at 130.5 times, followed by Household Appliances at 90.9 times and Food & Beverage at 82.3 times [1][8] - The P/E ratios for STAR Market and ChiNext are 76.06 times and 45.01 times, respectively, indicating that the North Exchange maintains a higher valuation compared to these markets [1][9] Sector Analysis - The North Exchange shows a mixed performance across various sectors, with significant gains in Oil & Petrochemicals and Nonferrous Metals, while sectors like Computers and Pharmaceuticals are underperforming [1][10] - The distribution of listed companies across sectors indicates a diverse market presence, with a notable concentration in sectors such as Machinery and Chemicals [1][11]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The Ministry of Commerce and 9 other departments issued the "Notice on Implementing Green Consumption Promotion Actions" to enhance the green consumption incentive mechanism and promote widespread green consumption behavior[2] - The notice focuses on three main areas: strengthening the supply of green products, cultivating new growth points for green consumption, and optimizing the green consumption environment[3][4] Group 2: Key Measures - It emphasizes enhancing the supply of green agricultural products, promoting green home appliances, and improving the quality of green services in sectors like dining and accommodation[3] - The notice proposes the establishment of a universal green consumption points system to encourage green purchasing and support public services for points users[4] - It advocates for the development of a green recycling system to reduce single-use plastics and promote the circulation of second-hand goods[4] Group 3: Policy Evolution - The green consumption policy has evolved from focusing on energy-saving appliances and electric vehicles in 2016 to now including green agricultural products and services like green housekeeping and accommodation[5] - The policy mechanism has shifted from "single incentives" to a "systematic collaborative empowerment" approach, integrating incentives, guarantees, and regulations[9] Group 4: Implementation and Risks - The notice aims to cover the entire supply chain, from production to circulation and recycling, ensuring a comprehensive approach to green consumption[9] - Risks include potential underperformance in policy implementation and misunderstandings regarding the policy[10]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.82% to close at 1,493.04 points on January 6, 2026, with a trading volume of 259.89 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.97% [3][4][6] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 47.74 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and STAR Market [3][10] - The sectors that performed well include non-ferrous metals (+11.1%), home appliances (+4.5%), computers (+4.4%), and machinery (+3.0%), while the pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 0.5% [3][4] Trading Performance - On January 6, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 903.76 billion yuan, with 396.77 billion shares listed, of which 253.49 billion shares were tradable [3][4] - The average daily trading volume for the previous week was 194.04 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in trading levels on January 6 [3][4] Stock Performance - Among the 287 listed companies, 264 saw an increase in stock prices, while 21 experienced declines. Notable gainers included Hanxin Technology (+29.99%) and Tianli Composite (+29.99%), while Jin Hao Medical saw a significant drop of 14.57% [3][8][9] - The top ten stocks by market performance on January 6 included Hanxin Technology, Tianli Composite, and Beiyikang, with respective market capitalizations of 30.35 billion yuan, 95.63 billion yuan, and 39.80 billion yuan [8][9] Valuation Analysis - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for companies on the North Exchange is 47.74 times, with the highest sector being non-ferrous metals at 126.1 times, followed by home appliances at 92.8 times and food and beverage at 81.7 times [3][10] - The valuation of the North Exchange continues to be higher than that of the ChiNext, which has a P/E ratio of 44.85 times [3][10] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed the highest increase in stock prices, reflecting strong market interest and potential growth opportunities [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector, in contrast, faced challenges, as indicated by the decline in stock prices, suggesting potential issues within the industry [3][4][9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [3] - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on fundamental factors tailored to national enterprises, considering both general and industry-specific factors [5][6] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool using the CSI National Enterprise Index (000955.CSI) and stocks listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange for over six months with central or local state-owned enterprise attributes [3] - Classify industries into dividend-oriented and growth-oriented categories based on ZX third-level industry logic [3][4] - Select general factors such as ROE (TTM), operating cash ratio, labor productivity, asset-liability ratio, and dividend yield [5][6] - Incorporate industry-specific factors like ROIC, prepayment growth rate, inventory turnover rate, and capital expenditure/depreciation ratio for different industries [6][8] - Adjust factor weights based on industry characteristics, emphasizing dividend yield for dividend-oriented industries and reducing the weight of asset-liability ratio for growth-oriented industries [9] - Calculate scores using weighted averages of general and industry-specific factors, normalize the scores, and assign weights to stocks based on their scores [11] - Formula for stock weight: $$w_{i}={\frac{s c o r e_{i}^{3}}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}s c o r e_{i}^{3}}}$$ [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively captures the characteristics of national enterprises, balancing dividend stability and growth potential [5][6] Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [19] - **Model Construction Idea**: Focus on technology stocks with high R&D investment and strong growth potential, using fundamental factors to identify stocks in their growth and mature stages [20][23] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool based on SW third-level industries and R&D investment criteria (R&D expenses > 5% of revenue or R&D personnel > 10% of total employees) [19][20] - Exclude stocks in the shock and decline stages based on cash flow lifecycle analysis [22][23] - Select general factors such as profitability, growth ability, technical level, supply chain concentration, and alpha factors [24][28] - Incorporate specific factors for growth and mature stages, such as management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, accounts receivable turnover rate, and PB-ROE [24][28] - Adjust scores using R&D expense multipliers to emphasize high R&D industries [28][29] - Formula for stock weight: $$w e i g h t_{i}={\frac{s c o r e_{i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{50}s c o r e_{i}}}$$ [30] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy highlights technology stocks with strong R&D capabilities and growth potential, effectively capturing industry-specific dynamics [24][28] Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Model Name**: Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy [38] - **Model Construction Idea**: Focus on consumer stocks with direct-to-consumer business models, using fundamental factors to identify stocks with strong growth, profitability, and governance [38][39] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the sample pool based on SW third-level industries, categorizing stocks into daily manufacturing, optional manufacturing, daily services, and optional services [38][39] - Select general factors such as growth-profitability-cash flow composite factor, operating cash flow ratio, ESG management score, and economic sensitivity [40][41] - Incorporate specific factors like market share, R&D expense ratio, accounts receivable turnover rate, and marketing expense ratio [40][41] - Adjust scores using PS (TTM) multipliers to emphasize stocks with lower price-to-sales ratios [46][47] - Formula for stock weight: $$w e l g h t_{i}={\frac{S c o r e_{i}^{a d j}}{\sum_{i=1}^{50}S c o r e_{i}^{a d j}}}$$ [48] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively identifies consumer stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential, balancing profitability and governance [40][41] --- Model Backtesting Results National Enterprise Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 22.93% [12][15] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.85% [15] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0961 [15] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.9963 [15] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -23.01% [15] Technology Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 30.61% [31][34] - **Annualized Volatility**: 27.61% [34] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.1070 [34] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.8962 [34] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -34.16% [34] Consumer Theme Fundamental Factor Stock Selection Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 24.86% [49][52] - **Annualized Volatility**: 22.99% [52] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0825 [52] - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.0197 [52] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -24.38% [52]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.80% to close at 1,466.42 points on January 5, 2026, with a trading volume of 211.38 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.16% [1][2][5] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 46.72 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][8][9] - The most significant sector gains were seen in the oil and petrochemical (+6.0%), pharmaceutical and biological (+4.5%), home appliances (+4.3%), and communications (+3.7%) sectors [1][2] Trading Performance - On January 5, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 884.47 billion yuan, with 396.77 billion shares listed, of which 253.27 billion were tradable [1] - The trading activity showed a recovery compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 194.04 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The highest average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios among sectors on the North Exchange were in non-ferrous metals (108.9), home appliances (82.5), and communications (80.1) [1][8] - The majority of industries on the North Exchange experienced gains, with notable declines in the automotive (-0.9%) and transportation (-0.3%) sectors [1][2] Stock Performance - Among the top gainers, Beiyikang (29.98%), Kaide Quartz (22.36%), and Jinhao Medical (20.03%) led the market [1][6] - Conversely, Tianming Technology (-15.03%), Jiaxian Co. (-10.33%), and Lifang Holdings (-8.46%) were the largest decliners [1][7] Valuation Trends - The North Exchange's overall valuation has shown an increase, with the P/E ratio at 46.72 times, indicating a higher valuation compared to the ChiNext (44.40 times) [1][9] - The valuation trends indicate a consistent premium of the North Exchange over the ChiNext, reflecting investor confidence in the listed companies [1][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) has shown a total return of -2% for the latest month, with a relative total return of -5%, a maximum gain of 1%, and a maximum loss of -3% as of December 30, 2025 [3][6] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy (CSI 300) has reported a total return of -5% for the latest month, with a relative total return of -8%, a maximum gain of 0.16%, and a maximum loss of -5% as of December 30, 2025 [6][9] - The overall market performance in December showed a decline in both pure ESG strategies and ESG & central state-owned enterprise strategies, while the pure central state-owned enterprise strategy yielded positive returns [10][11] Group 2 - The cumulative return rates as of December 29, 2025, are as follows: ESG & central state-owned enterprises at 88.80%, central state-owned enterprises at 74.30%, ESG at 100.13%, and the entire A-share market at 31.52% [10][11] - The monthly performance for December indicates a decline of -2.20% for ESG & central state-owned enterprises, a slight increase of 0.27% for central state-owned enterprises, and a minor decline of -0.11% for the ESG sector [10][11] - The number and issuance of ESG funds have decreased during the month [10] Group 3 - Valuation metrics show that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the entire A-share market is at 22.28, while the P/E ratios for central state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises are at 10.07 and 10.41, respectively [15][16] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 18,724 billion yuan, while central state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises had trading volumes of 591 billion yuan and 919 billion yuan, respectively [15][16] Group 4 - The national carbon market has seen a decrease in trading volume, with the closing price for carbon emission allowances at 72.87 yuan per ton, up from 59.65 yuan per ton previously [21][23] - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances in December was 46.2182 million tons, down from 47.7532 million tons [21][23]

Core Insights - The ESG strategies experienced a slight pullback this week, with the ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) declining by 1.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.59%, resulting in an excess return of -0.45% [1][4] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy also saw a decline of 0.82%, again underperforming the CSI 300 benchmark, leading to an excess return of -0.23% [1][8] ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, evaluates the incremental risk information provided by ESG factors and incorporates Markowitz portfolio theory [1][4] - Performance metrics as of December 31, 2025: - Total return for the last month: -3% - Relative total return: -4% - Maximum gain: 1% - Maximum loss: -3% - Sharpe ratio: -6.52 [1][7] ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, derived from the report published on February 28, 2025, also assesses the incremental risk information from ESG sentiment while applying Markowitz portfolio theory [1][8] - Performance metrics as of December 31, 2025: - Total return for the last month: -4% - Relative total return: -6% - Maximum gain: 0.2% - Maximum loss: -4% - Sharpe ratio: -8.78 [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the service consumption sector, particularly in light of the government's efforts to stimulate consumer spending through various holidays and subsidies [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in service consumption during the New Year holiday, with a total of 590 million people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The introduction of a large-scale subsidy program for replacing old appliances is expected to boost consumer spending, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan (approximately 9.1 billion USD) for 2026 [4]. - Midea's decision to raise air conditioner prices is seen as a strategic move to counteract intense competition in the industry, with price increases of 2% and 4% planned for early January [4]. Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The report notes that during the New Year holiday, railway passenger volume is projected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is expected to account for 540 million people, up 15.5% [2]. - The recovery in travel is anticipated to drive growth in the cultural tourism, hotel, and restaurant sectors, making service consumption a key driver of domestic demand recovery [2]. Domestic and International Tourism - The report indicates a substantial increase in inbound tourism, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday rising by 110% year-on-year [3]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou remain popular among international tourists, while smaller cities like Dali and Xishuangbanna have seen a threefold increase in inbound visitors [3]. Government Subsidies and Industry Response - The government has initiated a subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which is expected to support consumer demand during peak seasons like the New Year and Spring Festival [4]. - Midea's price adjustments are viewed as a necessary step to improve the competitive landscape of the air conditioning industry, which has faced rising costs due to increased copper prices [4].

策略研究 · 策略周报 元旦假期事件梳理及 A 股展望 2026 年 1 月 4 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 相关研究 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投资 的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政治局会议对投资的启示 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，公募基金三季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，2025 年 11 月投资组合报告："十五五" 新蓝图与市场新机遇 2025-10-29，变局蕴机遇，驶向新蓝海——《"十五 五"规划建议》解码 A 股投资全景图 2025-10- ...