Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 二手房挂牌价回暖 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度：二手房成交同比表现持续强劲 二手房市场成交维持高位震荡，同比表现持续强劲。二手房市场活跃度在经历前两周的连续攀升后回调， 本周（1 月 23-29 日）15 城二手房成交面积录得 235 万平，环比小幅下滑 8%，成交规模仍处于过去四周 214 万-256 万平区间，持平于 12 月周均成交 235 万平，显示二手房市场相对平稳。同比维度上，继上周成交增长 10%并终结连续十四周的下跌态势后，本周因去年同期为春节周的低基数效应，同比大增 150%；剔除春节错 位影响，与 2024 年同期相比亦录得 22%的增长。 新房市场受月末效应提振，创年后新高，但复苏成色仍待观察。本周 38 城新房成交面积录得 225 万平， 环比增长 21%，或主要受月末房企集中冲量效应驱动，绝对量虽创下元旦后新高，但仍明显低于 12 月的 263 万-524 万平。同比维度上，受去年春节低基数影响，本周新房成交录得 51%的 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 当残差<0 时，实际 PB 低于基本面合理值，市场情绪低 迷，风险偏好下降。 ► PB-ROE 残差与可投资区域 A 股市场 PB-ROE 残差与下周指数涨幅总体正相关，并 且有统计显著性。当残差明显超越历史均值时，市场情绪极 度高涨，可配置高仓位；而当残差明显低于历史均值时，市 场存在较强安全边际，下跌空间有限，可配置中高仓位。 我们以残差历史均值±1 倍标准差为界，确定仓位信号。 ► 本周仓位观点 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PB-ROE 模型周度仓位观点 [Table_Summary] ► PB-ROE 模型方法 根据时间序列 PB-ROE 模型计算残差，模型残差是市场 实际估值超出基本面合理估值的部分，即实际估值相对于合 理估值的偏离。 当残差>0 时，实际 PB 高于基本面合理值，市场情绪高 涨，风险偏好提升。 截至 2026/1/30，市场整体 PB-ROE 残差值为 0.18，超过 历史均值+1 倍标准差，当前处于估值扩张并且市场情绪高涨 阶 段 ， 模 型 建 议 本 周 (2026/2/2-2026/2 ...

[Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况： 1 月资金面，两轮波动，中枢平稳 回顾开年以来资金利率走势，月内资金经历两轮波动。第一轮波动于 14 日前 后。随着央行回笼跨年资金，加之 13日买断式逆回购续作时点错位，资金缺口压力 达到阶段性峰值。叠加银行融出下降、北交所密集新股发行等多因素影响，资金利 率于 14 日快速升至 1.49%，R007 亦突破 1.6%。月内第二轮资金波动源于税期与 跨月需求的紧密衔接，二者叠加推升资金价格季节性走升，R001、R007 分别收于 1.51%、1.64%，整体跨月压力不算大。 [Table_Title] 春节前，政府债发行提速 全月来看，资金中枢仍维持平稳，R007 月均值较前月下行 2.2bp 至 1.55%、 DR007 小幅上行 1.8bp 至 1.51%附近。隔夜资金中枢整体较去年 12 月有所上行， R001、DR001 月均值分别环比上行 4.7、5.5bp 至 1.41%、1.34%。 1 月资金面"变中趋稳"的背后，主要得益于供给端的支撑。一方面是央行投放 相对"慷慨"，为资金面宽松奠定基础。1 月国债买卖数据 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PMI 意外回落，什么信号 1 月 31 日， 统计局发布 1 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.3%，前值 50.1%。非制造业 PMI 49.4%，前值 50.2%。重点关注以下四个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，生产和订单是主要拖累。1 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.3%，与去年 11 月的 49.2%接近，表现显著弱于市场预期（彭博预期 50.1%）。组成制造业 PMI的五个分项中，主要是生产、新 订单明显回落，生产回落 1.1 个百分点至 50.6%，新订单回落 1.6 个百分点至 49.2%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.3、 0.5 个百分点。 制造业回落幅度超出季节性。PMI 已通过季调方式部分剔除季节性规律，不过春节早晚对 12 月、1 月到 3 月 PMI 仍会有一定程度影响，难以完全剔除。我们参考春节类似日期的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021（2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 1 月相对前一年 12 月回落 0 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题延续促使全球多数市场震荡较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于一些地区地缘问题的延续未决， 本周全球多数市场震荡。本周美股科技股波动较多。虽然本周 微软出现了较大调整，目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.94，仍然处于高于 35 的区间。费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 47.83，逐步逼近 50 这个区间。纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.66，仍然处于 40 以上的区间。由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠 加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影响，美股科技指数中期仍积蓄 一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率达到 40.81，较长时 间处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普的经济、关税、外交等多方面 政策的不确定性较大，且美股估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、消 费、工业等行业里面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化 的可能性。由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题尚未解决，本周欧洲多数 市场出现了明显震荡。由于欧洲经济偏疲软，欧洲多个重要市 场股指 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 业绩超预期，期待 26 年加速开店 [Table_Title2] 三夫户外(002780) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 002780 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 19.2/8.74 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 24.67 | | 最新收盘价： | 14.92 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 19.49 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 130.65 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2025 业绩预告，归母净利为 4500-6750 万元，同比增长 309-414%，预告中枢净利超市场预期。 分析判断: 我们分析，X 品牌营收持续增长、我们预计超预期主要来自松鼠乐园减亏，我们此前预计亏损 2000 万，上 半年为亏损 420 万元，减亏明显，全年我们预计亏损为几百万元。 投资建议 我们分析，展望 26 年，（1）X 品 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 18.24, with a historical average of 28.00[6] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.79, while the CSI 300 is at 13.50[8] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 39.26, indicating a growth-oriented market segment[8] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.47, with a historical maximum of 22.67[57] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.84, reflecting investor interest in tech stocks[62] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.92, indicating lower valuation compared to other indices[62] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.39, with a historical maximum of 41.99[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.76, indicating a high valuation in tech stocks[90] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 28.97, reflecting a stable valuation compared to historical data[94] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[21] - The technology sector, particularly in A-shares, is at historically high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[21] - The consumer sector, including liquor and pharmaceuticals, shows varied PE levels, with liquor at 18.47 and pharmaceuticals at 37.27[30]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 25Q4 迎来业绩改善 [Table_Title2] 兴业科技(002674) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002674 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 18.6/8.05 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 41.32 | | 最新收盘价： | 13.98 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 40.90 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 292.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 25 年业绩预告，归母净利/扣非归母净利为 0.98-1.2/0.93-1.15 亿元，同比下降 31-15%/30- 14%；按中枢测算，略低于我们此前预期，但 25Q4 已迎来显著改善。 分析判断: 根据公司业绩预告，对应 Q4 净利润为 0.58-0.8 亿元，同比增长 81%-150%，处于历史较高水平；我们分析 主要由于：1）主业鞋包袋皮革业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and aerospace sector is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The domestic long-range engine, Changjiang series, has entered a critical certification phase, marking a significant turning point for the large aircraft sector [1] - The demand for civil aircraft remains strong, with Boeing recovering orders while Airbus faces delivery challenges due to engine supply shortages [4][5] - The C919 aircraft has made significant progress in obtaining European airworthiness certification, which is crucial for accessing global markets [6] - The operational performance of the C919 has been validated through extensive market testing, with increasing flight hours and passenger numbers [7][8] - The delivery of C919 aircraft is expected to rise, with supply chain obstacles gradually diminishing [9] Summary by Sections Manufacturing and Development - The Changjiang engine's development is a key focus, with the 2026 work conference emphasizing the importance of commercial power and advanced materials [1] - The C919 has successfully completed various certification processes, including the TC and PC certifications for multiple engine models [3] Demand and Market Dynamics - Airbus has a backlog of 8,665 aircraft orders, with a projected delivery of approximately 820 aircraft by the end of 2025, while Boeing's commercial aircraft orders have shown signs of recovery [4] - Engine supply shortages are a critical bottleneck, causing many new aircraft to be grounded due to the lack of engines [5] Certification and Regulatory Progress - The C919 has received positive evaluations from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), indicating its performance and safety [6] Operational Performance - The C919 has successfully carried over 4 million passengers by the end of 2025, demonstrating its operational reliability and efficiency [7] - Airlines are expanding C919 flight routes, reflecting confidence in the aircraft's performance [8] Delivery and Supply Chain - In 2025, approximately 15 C919 aircraft were delivered, showing an increase from the previous year, although still below initial expectations [9] - The resolution of supply chain issues, particularly regarding engine availability, is crucial for future production increases [9]