证券研究报告 印度宣布焦煤为战略性矿产， 看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第4周） 2026年2月1日 行业评级：看好 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月30日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨3.98%，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.9个百分点。全板块整周30只股价上涨，6 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为14.5%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月23日-2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为758万吨，周环比增加0.9%，年同比增加59.6%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周增加1.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少2.7%，无烟煤销量较上周增加0.4%。截至2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为753万吨，周环比增加1.5%，年同比增加 56.5%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2225万吨，周环比减少1.5%，年同比减少25.2%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.0 billion to 8.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66% to 99% [2] - The main reasons for the profit increase include focusing on core business, optimizing order structure, and improving operational efficiency [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to replacement cycles, environmental policies, and capacity constraints, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [4] Financial Summary - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are approximately 7.84 billion, 17.09 billion, and 25.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 117%, 118%, and 48% respectively [6] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with 2025 revenue projected at 156.21 billion yuan, a 99% increase from 2024 [8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.04 yuan in 2025, increasing to 3.37 yuan by 2027 [8]

❑ 高波环境下，市场运行特征体现为配置性价比不足，交易资金主导。 过去一周（2026/01/26~2026/01/30，下同），转债市场在高波环境下运行，运行特 征逐步体现出配置性价比不足、交易资金主导。转债整体走势较弱，转债大盘指 数（-1.09%）表现略优于中盘指数（-2.76%）和小盘指数（-2.79%），低价指数表 现较好（-0.87%），高价转债走势弱（-5.19%）。权益端，前期放量冲高后成交额自 高位回落，市场风险偏好边际降温，量价结构由趋势推动向均衡过渡，配置资金 加仓意愿减弱。在此背景下，转债市场股性扩张动能明显放缓，高波动、高弹性 品种在情绪回落阶段承压更为显著，而具备一定防御属性与估值约束的低价品种 相对占优。在此阶段，转债配置的安全边际有待进一步消化，策略上应以交易思 维应对高波动市场环境，侧重把握波动率与结构分化带来的阶段性机会，同时保 持对估值约束与回撤风险的关注。从当前市场特征看，转债收益来源更多依赖波 动率与结构分化，而非系统性股性扩张，对节奏与仓位管理的要求明显提高。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 66%-99%, with an estimated net profit of 7.0 billion to 8.4 billion yuan [2][3] - The main reasons for the profit increase include a focus on core business, improved order structure, and enhanced operational efficiency [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 156.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 99% increase from the previous year [8] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 7.84 billion, 17.09 billion, and 25.37 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 117%, 118%, and 48% [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 32, 15, and 10 [6]

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company has experienced a turnaround in operations, with significant growth in product and channel expansion since the appointment of the new CEO in December 2025 [1][3] - For FY2026H1, the company reported revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and a 17% increase when adjusted for previous consolidation effects [1][18] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for FY2026H1 reached 4.1 billion yuan, with a 16.4% year-on-year increase after adjusting for previous consolidation effects [1][18] - The company's self-operated products generated a GMV of 2.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth and accounting for 52.8% of total sales, marking it as the core growth driver [1][18] Summary by Sections FY2026H1 Financial Report: Self-Operation as Core Driver, Significant Improvement in Profitability - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was 36.4%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points, primarily due to high-margin self-operated products [2][18] - The non-GAAP net profit for FY2026H1 reached 260 million yuan, with a profit margin of 6.3% compared to 0.0% and 4.5% in FY2025H1 and H2 respectively, indicating continued improvement in profitability [2][18] High-Frequency Updates: Momentum Upward, Frequent Self-Operated Bestsellers - The company has over 800 self-operated products and plans to exceed 1,000 SKUs, entering a rapid iteration testing phase [4][19] - The company has successfully developed popular products such as probiotics and soft candies, with recent launches like dried apples and five-red powder also performing well [4][20] Accelerating Multi-Channel Strategy Implementation, Supporting Brand Momentum - The company is transitioning from a reliance on live-streaming sales to a focus on high-quality products, with significant sales through Douyin and its app [5][19] - The app sales GMV for FY2026H1 reached 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [5][19] New Development Phase Gradually Realized, Growth Accelerated in January 2026 - Estimated GMV for January 2026 exceeded 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 30%, driven by the launch of multiple new product lines and matrix accounts [6][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to accelerate self-operated product and channel expansion, with adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 at 556 million, 669 million, and 800 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 45x, 38x, and 31x [7][19]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 机械设备 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 31 日 SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，商业航天受益全球太空资源竞速 ——商业航天行业点评报告 投资要点 事件：SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，以构建超大规模太空数据中心 SpaceX 于 2026 年 1 月 30 日向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）提交申请，计划发射 并运营一个由至多 100 万颗卫星组成的星座，名为"轨道数据中心系统"（SpaceX Orbital Data Center System）； 该计划旨在构建一个具备超大规模计算能力的太空数据中心，为全球数十亿用户 提供 AI 推理、机器学习和边缘计算等服务。 太空数据中心：AI 算力有望向太空升维 卫星将被部署在 500 公里至 2000 公里高度的不同轨道壳层内，利用太阳能供电， 并通过激光链路与地面及其他卫星高速通信； 太空数据中心可利用太空的低温环境实现自然散热，能有效降低能源和基础设施 成本，满足 AI 算力的快速增长需求。 太空算力 vs 地面数据中心相比（尤其在规模扩大至 GW 级）： 1）成本：利用廉价的太空能源（全天候不间断高强度的光伏 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In December 2025, national general public budget revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.02%[3] - The total revenue for the national general public budget in 2025 was 216,045 billion yuan, a decline of 1.7% from 2024[3] - The expenditure growth rate for the national general public budget in December 2025 was -1.77%, an improvement from -3.7% previously[6] Tax Revenue Insights - In December 2025, tax revenue was 11,549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while the total tax revenue for 2025 grew by 0.8%[3] - Personal income tax showed a significant increase of 11.5% in 2025, indicating strong growth despite overall tax revenue challenges[4] - Non-tax revenue fell by 47.9% in December 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from 2024[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The broad fiscal budget (general public budget + government fund budget) showed a widening deficit, with December revenue growth slowing more than expenditure growth[2] - The first three accounts showed a surplus of 590 billion yuan, mainly driven by a significant increase in central state-owned capital operating budget revenue, which grew by 25.8%[11] - New policy financial tools and special bonds are expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026, particularly in fixed asset investment and consumption[2] Expenditure Focus - Social security and employment expenditures exceeded 100% of the initial budget, while agricultural and forestry expenditures lagged at 86.7%[7] - Total national general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 287,395 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase from 2024[6] - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7%, outpacing local government expenditure growth of 0.2%[6]