证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 机械设备 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 31 日 SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，商业航天受益全球太空资源竞速 ——商业航天行业点评报告 投资要点 事件：SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，以构建超大规模太空数据中心 SpaceX 于 2026 年 1 月 30 日向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）提交申请，计划发射 并运营一个由至多 100 万颗卫星组成的星座，名为"轨道数据中心系统"（SpaceX Orbital Data Center System）； 该计划旨在构建一个具备超大规模计算能力的太空数据中心，为全球数十亿用户 提供 AI 推理、机器学习和边缘计算等服务。 太空数据中心：AI 算力有望向太空升维 卫星将被部署在 500 公里至 2000 公里高度的不同轨道壳层内，利用太阳能供电， 并通过激光链路与地面及其他卫星高速通信； 太空数据中心可利用太空的低温环境实现自然散热，能有效降低能源和基础设施 成本，满足 AI 算力的快速增长需求。 太空算力 vs 地面数据中心相比（尤其在规模扩大至 GW 级）： 1）成本：利用廉价的太空能源（全天候不间断高强度的光伏 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (interest rate risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (interest rate risk increases, net price has room to fall) [65]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (credit risk decreases, net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable, net price has minor fluctuations), and "Reduce" (credit risk increases, net price has room to fall) [66]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond prices relative to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add" (convertible bonds perform better than the index), "Neutral" (convertible bonds perform the same as the index), and "Reduce" (convertible bonds perform worse than the index) [67]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in excess savings from a marginal perspective is more important than the total amount of high - interest time deposits maturing in 2026. The logical chain of "risk aversion - preventive fund demand - excess savings" started in 2022. Excess savings increased by 6.4 trillion and 6.2 trillion in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and decreased by 1.6 trillion and 6 trillion in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In 2026, excess savings are likely to continue to be released, which will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [1][5]. - The change in the Wanquan A Index is basically inversely related to the change in excess savings. When excess savings increase, stock market investment decreases, and the index falls; when excess savings decrease, stock market investment increases, and the index rises [6]. - Paying attention to the trend of excess savings (such as deposit retention, inflow into the stock market, or inflow into bank wealth management) is of great significance for the liability pressure of commercial banks and the marginal capital flow of major asset prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Marginal Thinking is More Important in Studying the Maturity of High - Interest Time Deposits in 2026 - Total thinking focuses on the overall situation of things, while marginal thinking focuses on marginal changes. The current market generally focuses on the total amount of time deposits maturing, ignoring the natural growth of deposits. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual real growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 5.4%, indicating that the time deposits of residents and enterprises may have an average growth rate higher than GDP [12]. - The statement by Deputy Governor Zou Lan at the press conference on January 15, 2026, about the large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits such as three - year and five - year deposits in 2026 has attracted market attention. It can be inferred that the new five - year time deposits in 2021 and the new three - year time deposits in 2023 were relatively large [2][12]. 3.2 The Logical Chain of "Risk Aversion - Preventive Fund Demand - Excess Savings" Started in 2022 - Risk aversion refers to the rational economic agent's perception of the objective economic environment, preventive fund demand comes from the "precautionary motive" in Keynes' theory of money demand, and excess savings are the part of time deposits higher than the natural growth rate in a specific period [3][13]. - The increase in risk aversion leads to an increase in the preventive fund demand of residents and enterprises, which in turn drives up excess savings. This logical chain has been more prominent since 2022. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) can be used to measure risk aversion. Since 2022, the number of months with PMI below 50 has increased significantly compared to before 2022 [4][14]. 3.3 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.3.1 Central Bank Operations - **Short - term liquidity**: The central bank conducts "peak - shaving and valley - filling" operations. In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, the net injection of pledged reverse repurchase was 58.05 billion yuan [17]. - **Medium - and long - term liquidity**: The net injection of MLF in a single month was 70 billion yuan [17]. 3.3.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situation - **Fund supply (lenders)**: The net lending of large - scale banks remains at a seasonal high [21]. - **Fund demand (borrowers)**: The absolute financing balance is high, but the relative leverage ratio is low [32]. 3.3.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - The repurchase interest rate has increased slightly, and the fund sentiment index tightened slightly at the end of the month [44][48]. 3.3.4 Interest Rate Swap The interest rate swap cost has increased slightly, and the spread between CD and IRS has remained low [48]. 3.4 Government Bonds 3.4.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds It will remain at a high level. In the past week, the total net payment was 51.5 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 39.04 billion yuan [50]. 3.4.2 Maturity Structure of Government Bonds - **Treasury bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 33.68%, 1 - 3 years was 30.44%, 3 - 5 years was 9.72%, 5 - 10 years was 22.02%, and more than 10 years was 4.15% [54]. - **Local government bonds**: As of January 30, 2026, the proportion of local government bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year was 0.03%, 1 - 3 years was 1.45%, 3 - 5 years was 2.88%, 5 - 10 years was 41.67%, and more than 10 years was 53.97% [55]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) 3.5.1 Absolute Yield The report provides the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield curve and their changes compared to the previous week [57]. 3.5.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation - **Issuance**: As of January 30, 2026, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 377.1 billion yuan. The issuance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 10%, 42%, 13%, 4%, and 30% respectively [61]. - **Outstanding**: As of January 30, 2026, the total outstanding balance of inter - bank CDs was 1,902.811 billion yuan. The outstanding balance of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs accounted for 1%, 8%, 25%, 17%, and 50% respectively [62]. 3.5.3 Relative Valuation The spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are provided, along with their quantiles since 2020 [64].

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In December 2025, national general public budget revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.02%[3] - The total revenue for the national general public budget in 2025 was 216,045 billion yuan, a decline of 1.7% from 2024[3] - The expenditure growth rate for the national general public budget in December 2025 was -1.77%, an improvement from -3.7% previously[6] Tax Revenue Insights - In December 2025, tax revenue was 11,549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while the total tax revenue for 2025 grew by 0.8%[3] - Personal income tax showed a significant increase of 11.5% in 2025, indicating strong growth despite overall tax revenue challenges[4] - Non-tax revenue fell by 47.9% in December 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from 2024[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The broad fiscal budget (general public budget + government fund budget) showed a widening deficit, with December revenue growth slowing more than expenditure growth[2] - The first three accounts showed a surplus of 590 billion yuan, mainly driven by a significant increase in central state-owned capital operating budget revenue, which grew by 25.8%[11] - New policy financial tools and special bonds are expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026, particularly in fixed asset investment and consumption[2] Expenditure Focus - Social security and employment expenditures exceeded 100% of the initial budget, while agricultural and forestry expenditures lagged at 86.7%[7] - Total national general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 287,395 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase from 2024[6] - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7%, outpacing local government expenditure growth of 0.2%[6]

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on cyclical recovery in sectors like engineering machinery, industrial gases, and shipping[1] - Growth sectors include embodied intelligence, controllable nuclear fusion, photovoltaic equipment, lithium battery equipment, semiconductor equipment, AIDC, and PCB equipment[1] - Optimism towards the U.S. market strategy due to easing trade disputes and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Engineering Machinery Market - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach $213.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030[2] - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 18% in 2025, reaching 118,518 units, while total excavator sales will increase by 17% to 235,257 units[2] - China's leading manufacturers are gaining global market share, with SANY's market value at approximately 10% of Caterpillar's as of January 2026[3] Group 3: Industrial Gases - The industrial gas market is expected to reach ¥1.3 trillion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% over the next four years[19] - The competitive landscape is concentrated, with the top four global industrial gas companies holding a 54% market share[19] - Growth drivers include macroeconomic recovery and increased demand from sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy[19] Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 9% in 2026, reaching $760.7 billion, driven by AI demand[14] - Domestic semiconductor equipment demand is expected to rise due to increased production capacity and a focus on self-sufficiency[14] - Key investment areas include etching and thin-film equipment, as well as the domestic production of photolithography machines[15]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 游戏Ⅱ 四季度迎来产品线收获期，25 年全年利润高增 ——吉比特点评报告 投资要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。2025 年公司预计归母净利润 16.9-18.6 亿元，上年同 期 9.45 亿元，同比增长 79%-97%；扣非归母净利润同比增长 88%-105%。单四 季度来看，预计归母净利润 4.8-6.5 亿元，同比增长 66%-125%，环比变化- 16.2%-13.7%。 宏观经济增速大幅下滑导致游戏消费受损，新游上线进度或质量不及预期，国际 贸易政策变化等。 利润高增主要得益于多款新上线产品 新游表现亮眼验证公司研发与发行实力，存量产品稳健运营提供业绩安全垫。具 体来说，2025 年全年公司成功推出《杖剑传说》《问剑长生》《杖剑传说》《道友 来挖宝》等多款新游戏，它们凭借优质的内容品质及有效的推广策略，快速获得 市场认可，为公司贡献了显著利润增量。特别是《杖剑传说》，上线约一月流水 便达到 4.24 亿元，25Q3 流水 7.42 亿元；根据七麦数据，其 2025 年 12 月仍冲至 App Store 游戏畅销榜前 40 水平。同时，公司存量游戏产品持 ...

分析师：邱世梁 执业证书号：S1230520050001 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 | 汽车零部件 投资要点 乘用车整椅：设计壁垒高；高端车型利润厚；板块估值提升空间大 ——乘用车整椅行业深度系列报告（一） 汽车零部件 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 研究助理：顾淳晖 guchunhui@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《汽车轻量化浪潮下，以塑代 钢空间广阔》 2025.12.23 2 《 具身智能与新能源车：此 时此刻恰如彼时彼刻》 2025.12.04 3 《新能源应用驱动行业增长， 龙头持续受益国产化、集成化、 高端化产业趋势》 2025.02.21 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/54 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 座椅重要程度高：为安全件、驾乘者接触最久的内饰件，近年配置持续提高 我国 GB&QC/T、美国 FMVSS、欧盟 ECE 均对座椅有安全要求，如我国《GB 15083- 2019》要求整椅需通过座椅靠背及头枕吸能试验、座椅靠背及其调节装置的强度 试验等多项检测 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 | 汽车零部件 汽车零部件 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 乘用车整椅：设计壁垒高；高端车型利润厚；板块估值提升空间大 ——乘用车整椅行业深度系列报告（一） 投资要点 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：邱世梁 执业证书号：S1230520050001 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：顾淳晖 guchunhui@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《汽车轻量化浪潮下，以塑代 钢空间广阔》 2025.12.23 2 《 具身智能与新能源车：此 时此刻恰如彼时彼刻》 2025.12.04 3 《新能源应用驱动行业增长， 龙头持续受益国产化、集成化、 高端化产业趋势》 2025.02.21 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/54 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 座椅重要程度高：为安全件、驾乘者接触最久的内饰件，近年配置持续提高 我国 GB&QC/T、美国 FMVSS、欧盟 ECE 均对座椅有安全要求，如我国《GB 15083- 2019》要求整椅需通过座椅靠背及头枕吸能试验、座椅靠背及其调节装置的强度 试验等多项检测 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate policy before the leadership transition, with the target federal funds rate remaining in the range of 3.50%-3.75%[1] - After the leadership change, the Fed may consider expanding its balance sheet in 2026 due to re-inflation pressures and financial stability concerns[1] - The Fed's optimistic view on unemployment indicates signs of stabilization, while inflation is expected to return to 2% after the tariff base effect subsides[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The December CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.7%, with core CPI also at 2.6%, indicating stable inflation levels[5] - Tariff-sensitive items such as clothing and furniture showed upward trends in CPI, suggesting ongoing inflation transmission from tariffs[5] - The personal consumption expenditure growth rate decreased from 3.56% in December 2024 to 2.55% in November 2025, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The U.S. remains in a liquidity "tight balance" state, with bank reserves at 9.76% of GDP, indicating insufficient reserves[8] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate between 4% and 4.5%, influenced by potential government shutdowns and fiscal policy uncertainties[14] - Risks include unexpected inflation deterioration and liquidity risks exceeding expectations, which could impact market stability[15]

Market Overview - On January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.26%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.08%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.21%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.57%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.58% [3]. - The best-performing sectors on January 28 were non-ferrous metals (+5.92%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.54%), coal (+3.42%), building materials (+2.18%), and steel (+2.16%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.53%), media (-1.77%), national defense and military industry (-1.68%), beauty and personal care (-1.65%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-1.56%) [3]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market on January 28 was 29,922.89 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.427 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3]. Key Insights - The report discusses a strategy focused on Elon Musk's concept stocks and thematic index, highlighting that 2026 is seen as a pivotal year for the commercialization of Musk's technological ventures [4]. - Musk's companies, including Tesla, xAI, SpaceX, and Neuralink, are positioned in six key technology areas: AI, robotics, autonomous driving, commercial space, brain-computer interfaces, and new energy [4]. - The market's perspective is shifting from long-term valuation to actual considerations of order flow, revenue realization, and market penetration for Musk's business landscape [4]. - The investment theme is scored based on eight dimensions, with Musk's concept theme receiving a score of 95, indicating high ratings in all areas except valuation level [4]. - A stock pool of 78 beneficiaries related to AI, robotics, autonomous driving, commercial space, brain-computer interfaces, and new energy has been created, with a back-tested excess return of 127.44% compared to the Wind All A Index from early 2025 to the present, and 157.35% from April 9, 2025, to January 23, 2026 [4].