证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 家居用品 思摩尔国际(06969) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 菲莫一季报再次印证新型烟草大势，持续布局 ——思摩尔国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：4.23 菲莫国际发布 2025Q1 业绩，IQOS 作为 HNB 市场份额 70%+的领军 产品，从其经营表现感知行业成长，对思摩尔的 HNB 业务潜力具备指导意义。 3）美国 HNB 市场即将打开：美国市场 3 月底在德州试销收到了强烈的市场反 馈，未来几个月进行更多的试点。 4）对 25 年 IQOS 的指引：维持此前 25 全年烟支销量同比增长 10-12%（24 年达 到 1400 亿支、同比+11.6%）的指引，管理层预计今年剩余时间 IQOS 将保持双 位数增长。 5）菲莫 HNB 烟弹 25Q1 在全球市场的份额为 5.7%（同比+0.6pct），在日本市 场达到 32.2%（24Q4 为 30.6%） ❑ 新型口含烟 ZYN 表现亮眼，雾化电子烟开始起量，稳步迈向"无烟气未来" 1）新型口含烟：尼古丁袋 ZYN 在美国 25Q1 出货量 2.02 亿罐（同比+53%）， 在美国以外的国际市场同样取 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 医疗服务 凯莱英(002821) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 新兴业务发力，看好持续性 ——凯莱英 2025Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 15.41 亿元（YOY10.10%）,归母净利润 3.27 亿 （YOY15.83%），扣非净利润 3.05 亿（YOY20.14%）。 从业务拆分看：小分子业务保持稳定发展，收入基本持平。新兴业务收入同比增 长超 80%，公司持续加大市场开拓力度和业务竞争力提升，特别是多肽、寡核苷 酸、ADC 等增量业务，我们仍然看好新兴业务持续发力。 ❑ 盈利能力：新兴业务毛利率显著提升，看好持续性 25Q1 实现毛利率 42.54%（同比-0.98pct），其中小分子业务毛利率 45.17%（同比 -2.17pct），新兴业务毛利率 33.05%（同比+15.75pct，我们认为主要来自于新兴 业务订单持续交付下产能利用率持续提升带来的规模化效应），明显回升。 净利率看 25Q1 净利率 21.06%（同比+1.09pct），其中研发费用率同比-3.15pct， 管理费用率同比-0.41pct，销售费用率同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84.1% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 0.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.11% [1][2] - The demand for optical engines driven by AI is rapidly increasing, leading to significant growth in the global data center and computing network expansion. The market for optical modules related to AI is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end customer needs, with ongoing R&D projects in 1.6T, silicon photonics, and CPO technologies, while optimizing production processes to reduce costs [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.068 billion yuan, 2.922 billion yuan, and 4.016 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 25 for 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 57.22% and a net margin of 41.3% [1][2] - For the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 0.945 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.338 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline due to seasonal factors [2] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly with the upcoming release of 1.6T products [3][4] - The global expansion of data centers and computing networks is expected to drive significant growth in the optical module market [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous product upgrades, leading to improved profitability. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177 million yuan, up 12.21% year-on-year [1] - The "Light Control" series continues to lead sales, with a revenue of approximately 164 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7%. The company has also launched new products to enhance near-sightedness prevention [2] - The company's gross margin has further improved, with a gross margin of 58.56% in 2024, an increase of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2024 was 22.95%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 770 million yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, and a net profit of 47 million yuan, up 11.70% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 58.56%, with a net profit margin of 22.95% [3] Business Segments - The "Light Control" series generated sales of 1.73 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. The lens business revenue was 634 million yuan, up 6.50% year-on-year, and the company’s star products contributed significantly to sales [2] - The company’s domestic business revenue was 741 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, while overseas revenue decreased by 27.8% [2] Product Development - The company has introduced a series of new high-refractive index products and is actively exploring the potential market for smart glasses, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions for smart glasses manufacturers [4][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 857 million yuan, 987 million yuan, and 1.119 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 201 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 271 million yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous product upgrades, leading to improved profitability. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177 million yuan, up 12.21% year-on-year [1] - The "Light Control" series continues to lead sales, with a revenue of approximately 164 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7%. The company has also launched new products to enhance near-sightedness prevention [2] - The company's gross margin has further improved, with a gross margin of 58.56% in 2024, an increase of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2024 was 22.95%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 770 million yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 197 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.63% [1] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 58.56%, with a net profit margin of 22.95% [3] Business Segments - The "Light Control" series generated sales of 173 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. The lens business revenue was 634 million yuan, up 6.50% year-on-year [2] - The company’s domestic business revenue reached 741 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while overseas revenue declined by 27.8% [2] Product Development - The company has introduced a series of new high-refractive index products and is actively exploring the potential market for smart glasses, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions for smart glasses manufacturers [4][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 857 million yuan, 987 million yuan, and 1.119 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 271 million yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84.1% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast median [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 0.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.11%, and a net profit of 0.338 billion yuan, up 21.07% year-on-year, although there was a slight quarter-on-quarter decline due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday [2] - The demand for optical engines driven by AI is rapidly increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% for the optical module market from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end customer needs, with ongoing R&D projects in 1.6T, silicon photonics, and CPO technologies, while optimizing production processes to reduce costs [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.068 billion yuan, 2.922 billion yuan, and 4.016 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25 for 2025 [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 68%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, reflecting an 84% increase [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 2.90 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25.03 [6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 医疗服务 凯莱英(002821) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 从业务拆分看：小分子业务保持稳定发展，收入基本持平。新兴业务收入同比增 长超 80%，公司持续加大市场开拓力度和业务竞争力提升，特别是多肽、寡核苷 酸、ADC 等增量业务，我们仍然看好新兴业务持续发力。 ❑ 盈利能力：新兴业务毛利率显著提升，看好持续性 25Q1 实现毛利率 42.54%（同比-0.98pct），其中小分子业务毛利率 45.17%（同比 -2.17pct），新兴业务毛利率 33.05%（同比+15.75pct，我们认为主要来自于新兴 业务订单持续交付下产能利用率持续提升带来的规模化效应），明显回升。 净利率看 25Q1 净利率 21.06%（同比+1.09pct），其中研发费用率同比-3.15pct， 管理费用率同比-0.41pct，销售费用率同比-0.33pct，财务费用率同比+2.67pct。我 们认为伴随着新兴业务板块产能利用率提升，公司盈利能力仍有希望逐渐回升。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 我们预计 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 为 2.90、3.45 和 4.19 元，2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 848 million (up 2% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million (up 3% YoY) [1][2] - The film business continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue growth, while the printing business faces pricing pressure due to weak downstream demand [2][3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, ensuring long-term revenue growth [3] - Cost control measures are in place, and a potential improvement in gross margin is expected in Q2 2025 due to declining raw material prices [4] Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 848 million, with the printing business facing a 3% decline in revenue but a 0.5% increase in sales volume [2] - The film business is expected to continue its rapid growth, significantly contributing to revenue in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.30%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points YoY, primarily due to pricing pressure in the printing business and a higher proportion of lower-margin film products [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 62.26% YoY, indicating improved sales collection capabilities [4] Capacity and Investment Summary - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 22,000-ton functional film material expansion project and a 40,000-ton smart printing factory project [3] - The expected return on investment for these projects is 32.7% and 43.59%, with payback periods of approximately 3.15 years and 3.21 years, respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.89 billion, 4.29 billion, and 4.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 508 million, 562 million, and 631 million [5] - The company is considered a high-dividend, stable growth stock with a current PE ratio of 13.77X for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in production and sales, with performance exceeding expectations. In 2024, the total revenue was 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.892 billion yuan, down 30.00% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue increase of 5.86% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 40.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged by 91.47% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 376.02% year-on-year [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Growth - The company has maintained growth in production and sales, with 2024 production reaching 1.8154 million tons, up 10.24% year-on-year, and sales of 1.7414 million tons, up 8.42% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, production was 0.5062 million tons, a 17.72% increase year-on-year, and sales were 0.5283 million tons, a 76.98% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Market Conditions - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the average price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 increasing by 16.07% year-on-year. As of April 23, 2025, the domestic average price of potassium chloride rose by 17.49% from its low point earlier in the year, indicating a potential recovery in industry conditions [2][3]. Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses abundant potassium mineral resources, with a total mineral rights area of 263.3 square kilometers and a potassium ore reserve exceeding 6 billion tons. The tax rate for the company's subsidiary in Laos will be reduced from 35% to 20% from 2024 to 2028, which is expected to lower overall costs [3]. Capacity Expansion and Non-Potassium Business - The company is actively expanding its potassium chloride production capacity, aiming for an annual increase of 1 million tons. The first 1 million tons/year project has already reached production, and additional projects are in progress. The company is also developing non-potassium resources, including a bromine production project that is expected to support its growth in the chemical industry [3][8].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 如何看待下一阶段关税走向 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 美国关税谈判或由高压威胁转为软化和谈，特朗普政府具有急于达成首份关税贸易协 定的内在动机。下一阶段中美贸易摩擦事态升级或达成协议的可能性均较为有限，最 早或于上半年得见和谈信号，2025 年内存在中美达成关税贸易协定的潜在路径。 ❑ 关税谈判或由高压威胁转向软化和谈 近期美国国内两大争端或值得关注，一是纳瓦罗与贝森特之争，对等关税暂停实 施被认为是以贝森特为代表的谈判派的胜利；二是特朗普与鲍威尔之争，特朗普 正面回应并不寻求解除鲍威尔职务，但仍重申对鲍威尔的批评。我们认为上述争 端所传达出的核心思想或是美国在关税政策的高压威胁阶段已逐步过去，国内压 力驱动下美国或将更为迫切地寻求达成关税谈判。一方面对等关税政策对美股市 场造成沉重打击，市场情绪仍较为低迷；另一方面受通胀预期高企、美国政府债 务可持续问题、美债基差交易逆转等因素影响，美债风险仍待解决。近期美股美 债表现承压对美元汇率形成直接压力，加之特朗普关税政策对国际贸易体系的直 接挑战，或进一 ...