证券研究报告|港股公司点评研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 17 日 [Table_Title] Q1 主品牌中单位数增长，索康尼超 40% [Table_Title2] 特步国际(1368.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1368 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 7.13/4.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.71 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,774.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告 2025Q1 运营数据：Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长，折扣为七到七五折，渠道库存为约四 个月，25Q1 索康尼零售销售实现约 40%同比增长。 分析判断: 25Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长（1）分渠道来看，25Q1 零售流水中单位数增长，增速环比较 24Q4 高单位数增长有所下降；（2）从 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, driven by higher sales prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with average selling prices of 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, marking year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend payout ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025, up from a previous target of 13.91 HKD [5][8]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·消费者主要零售商(HS) H&H 国际控股（01112.HK） 严冬历尽春雷动，三驾齐驱旭日升 2025 年 04 月 16 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14,009 | 13,052 | 14,082 | 15,074 | 16,163 | | 同比(%) | 9.23 | (6.84) | 7.90 | 7.04 | 7.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 581.85 | (53.72) | 520.67 | 623.61 | 693.84 | | 同比(%) | (4.89) | (109.23) | 1,069.21 | 19.77 | 11.26 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.90 | (0.08) | 0.81 | 0.97 | 1.07 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.78 | (105.96) | 10.93 | 9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is robust, with revenue and adjusted profit both increasing by over 30% [1] - The company is actively expanding its operations both domestically and internationally, with a focus on enhancing its medical resources and integrating AI into its services [2][7] - The company has a strong growth outlook, with projected revenue growth of 29% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.022 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and adjusted profit of 400 million RMB, up 31% [1][8] - The company maintained a gross margin of 30.1% and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% in 2024 [6][8] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.19 million RMB for the year, representing 38.7% of its net profit [1] User Engagement and Expansion - In 2024, the number of treatment visits increased by 26%, with an average spending per visit rising by 3% [2] - The company expanded its domestic presence to 78 institutions, with plans to add 15-20 more locations in 2025 [2][3] - The company has established partnerships with over 20 universities and hospitals, enhancing its medical expertise [2] AI Integration and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its medical services, aiming to digitize the experience of traditional Chinese medicine [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 38.89 billion RMB in 2025, 49.50 billion RMB in 2026, and 62.17 billion RMB in 2027 [7][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure by increasing self-paid services and expanding its product offerings [2][7]

2025 年 4 月 16 日 公司研究 羊奶粉海外市场表现亮眼，24 年利润同比改善 ——澳优（1717.HK）2024 年年报业绩点评 要点 事件：公司 24 年实现营业收入 74 亿元，同比+0.3%；归母净利润 2.4 亿元，同 比+35.3%。其中，24H2 实现营业收入 37.2 亿元，同比-3.8%；归母净利润 0.9 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 资料来源：Wind，光大证券研究所预测，股价时间为 2025-04-16 （注：汇率为 1 港币=0.93 元人民币，23-27 年股本数 分别为 17.80/17.80/17.79/17.79/17.79 亿股） 增持（维持） 当前价：1.96 港元 作者 佳贝艾特海外营收强劲增长，牛奶粉仍有承压。1）分产品看，2024 年公司牛奶 粉/羊奶粉/其他产品/营养品分别实现收入 21.07/36.99/12.92/3.05 亿元，分别 同比-17.8%/+12.7%/+3.2%/+7.1%。①牛奶粉：2024 年牛奶粉收入同比下滑主 要系出生率下滑背景下，市场需求减少；以及公司对海普诺凯采取了严格的渠道 管理措施，使其短期承压。②羊奶粉：2024 年羊奶粉在中 ...

研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 蒙牛乳业 China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) 供给去化，周期反转 Supply is dwindling and the cycle is about to reverse OPM 提升逐年兑现，重视股东回报。公司盈利能力逐年向好，24 年 /2024H1/2024H2 公司经营利润率同比+1.9/+0.6/+3.3pct，OPM 超预期。公 司于 2022 年-2024 年 OPM 分别提升 34/40/193 基点，持续兑现每年提升 30-50 基点的指引。同时公司注重股东回报，24 年公司将剔除贝拉米相关 减值净影响 39.8 亿、以及现代牧业商誉减值影响 3.5 亿后的利润作为分红 基础，并提升 2024 年分红比例至 45%，同比提升 5pct。公司 2024 年派发 期末股息每股普通股人民币 0.509 元，合计拟派发现金股利约 20 亿元。 24 年资本开支 35.8 亿元，同比-14%。随资本支出减少，我们认为未来派 息率仍存在扩大空间。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 ...

公司亮点 公司目前是全球最大的纵向一体化针织成衣制造商之一，主要客 户为耐克、优衣库、阿迪等全球服装巨头。公司拥有穿越周期的 高盈利能力主要得益于几大优势。1）ODM 强研发能力。公司通过 较强研发能力研发出了 Flyknit 等多种高性能、环保型面料，深 度绑定核心客户。2）一体化生产提升效率。公司面料织造、染整、 印绣花及裁缝集中在同一工业区内进行，并且深度推进数字化改 造，提升供货效率、产品质量、面料利用率。3）多元海外工厂布 局。公司目前中国/越南/柬埔寨产能占比分别为 47%/27%/26%，海 外产能布局享有税收及劳动力成本优势。公司凭借多元优势在生 产端拥有较强的规模效应，盈利水平领跑行业。 投资逻辑： 关税层面：我们认为公司整体风险可控，相较行业其他公司拥有 比较优势。1）公司凭借多元产能与全球大客户开展合作，目前出 口美国比例仅为 16%，我们测算此次加征关税若传递到终端对公司 整体订单影响或小于 3%。2）此次关税风波并不会影响公司东南亚 产能的劳动力和生产效率优势。同时我们预计此次关税风波会带 来行业的冲击与洗牌，或加速行业小微企业的出局，公司无论从 资金还是从盈利能力方面都具备更强的抗 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with a strong client base including Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas. Its high profitability is attributed to several advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory locations [2][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, leading to improved order conditions. The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a significant portion of its production in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, accounting for 47%, 27%, and 26% of capacity respectively [2][55]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.79%, and a net profit of RMB 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15][25]. Investment Logic - The company has a manageable risk profile compared to its peers, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S. The potential impact of tariffs is estimated to be less than 3% on overall orders [3][63]. - The recent tariff situation is expected to accelerate the exit of smaller competitors, allowing the company to capture additional market share due to its stronger financial and operational resilience [3][64]. Short-term Orders - The company is optimistic about order improvements from its four major clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive trends. Adidas is expected to recover its brand strength, which will benefit the company [4][11]. - The long-term market share is projected to increase as major clients reduce their supplier base, enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.39, RMB 4.91, and RMB 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE of 11 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation opportunity [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target price set at HKD 65.17 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting significant growth in cloud business revenue and overall profits [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, significantly boosting profits. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 522 million, 656 million, and 883 million RMB respectively, with EPS expected to be 0.46, 0.57, and 0.77 RMB [4][7]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 8.20 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1%. However, cloud services revenue is expected to grow by 38.1% to 2.76 billion RMB, while enterprise management software revenue is projected to increase by 3.7% to 2.56 billion RMB [8][9]. - The company is focusing on large enterprises and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, having enabled digital transformation for numerous central government-owned enterprises and top companies in China [9][10]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million RMB): 8,294 in 2023, projected to decline to 8,201 in 2024, then increase to 8,586 in 2025, 9,213 in 2026, and 10,291 in 2027 [3][6]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 1,918 in 2023, expected to rise to 2,208 in 2024, 2,447 in 2025, 2,718 in 2026, and 3,190 in 2027 [3][6]. - Gross profit margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2024 to 31.0% in 2027 [6]. - The company plans to continue returning value to shareholders with a proposed dividend of 0.08 HKD per share [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its presence in the large enterprise market and plans to release advanced AI-driven platforms in 2024, enhancing its competitive edge in the ERP sector [9][10]. - The introduction of foundation models is expected to improve the company's smart supply chain products, focusing on various industries such as pharmaceuticals and manufacturing [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, 7.93 billion RMB for 2026, and 9.16 billion RMB for 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The target price has been raised to 17.83 HKD, reflecting a dynamic price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.5x for 2025 [5][9]. - The company is experiencing stable performance with operating net cash flow growing significantly, projected at 0.93 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 42.9% [5][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit is projected to be -0.14 billion RMB, showing a 32.3% improvement [4][5]. - Cloud service revenue is expected to reach 5.11 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue, with a cloud subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% increase [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company's cloud services, particularly the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Xinghan, which achieved a combined revenue of 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, a 32.9% increase [5][9]. AI Integration and Product Development - The company is accelerating the integration of AI with its ERP systems, launching over 20 AI applications and signing contracts with nearly 20 large enterprises. This includes significant advancements in financial management and HR [5][9]. - The AI applications are expected to enhance customer transaction values, with over 7,500 small micro enterprises benefiting from AI-enabled products [5][9].