证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 海底捞（06862.HK） 2024H2 盈利表现超预期，持续注重股东回报 事件：3 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年业绩，2024 年实现收入 427.55 亿元 /同比+3.1%，归母净利润 47.08 亿元/同比+4.6%，核心经营利润 62.30 亿元/同比+18.7%；其中，2024H2 实现收入 212.64 亿元/同比-5.8%，归 母净利润 26.70 亿元/同比+19.1%，核心经营利润 34.31 亿元/同比 +23.9%，盈利表现超预期。分业务来看，2024 年海底捞餐厅经营/外卖业 务 / 调 味 品 及 食 材 产 品 / 其 他 餐 厅 经 营 / 其 他 业 务 分 别 实 现 收 入 403.98/12.54/5.75/4.83/0.28 亿 元 ， 同 比 +2.9%/+20.4%/- 27.1%/+39.6%/+168.3%，新增加盟业务收入 0.17 亿元。其中，海底捞 餐厅经营业务分区域来看，2024 年扣除会员积分计划前一线城市/二线城 市 / 三线及以下城市 / 港澳台地 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 16 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 闭店和投资致亏损，将继续门店调整并聚焦绿色健康战略 事件：公司发布 2024 年度业绩。营业收入 49.21 亿元/同比-4.7%，经调 整净利润-9.19 亿元/去年同期 0.21 亿元。 收入小幅下降，利润率承压，业绩大幅亏损。1）营收小幅下降，主要因 为门店收入承压，及关闭部分经营不善的直营店：2024 年单店日均收入 0.72 万元/同比-29.1%；2024 年末直营门店 1453 家/较 2023 年末净减少 121 家，加盟门店 345 家/较 2023 年末净增加 264 家。2）利润率承压。 2024 年公司经调整净利润率为-18.7%/去年同期为 0.4%。拆分来看，毛 利率/员工成本占比/使用权资产折旧占比/其他租金及相关开支/广告及推 广开支占比 / 其 他 开 支 占 比 分 别 为 63.2%/29.2%/8.4%/5.6%/5.0%/10.1% ，分别同比 -3.9/+2.0/+0.4/- 0.3/+1.8/+5.0pct。3）业绩出现大幅亏损，主因闭店损失和 ...

事件：3 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年业绩，2024 年实现收入 427.55 亿元 /同比+3.1%，归母净利润 47.08 亿元/同比+4.6%，核心经营利润 62.30 亿元/同比+18.7%；其中，2024H2 实现收入 212.64 亿元/同比-5.8%，归 母净利润 26.70 亿元/同比+19.1%，核心经营利润 34.31 亿元/同比 +23.9%，盈利表现超预期。分业务来看，2024 年海底捞餐厅经营/外卖业 务 / 调 味 品 及 食 材 产 品 / 其 他 餐 厅 经 营 / 其 他 业 务 分 别 实 现 收 入 403.98/12.54/5.75/4.83/0.28 亿 元 ， 同 比 +2.9%/+20.4%/- 27.1%/+39.6%/+168.3%，新增加盟业务收入 0.17 亿元。其中，海底捞 餐厅经营业务分区域来看，2024 年扣除会员积分计划前一线城市/二线城 市 / 三线及以下城市 / 港澳台地区的收入分别为 71.57/157.00/161.78/14.46 亿元，同比-0.5%/+0.6%/+6.7%/+5.6%， 收入占比分别为 17.7%/38.8%/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][47] Core Views - The company has accumulated over 200 million paying users through its WeChat mini-program, with a significant focus on improving ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) in 2024, showing a 50% increase compared to 2019 [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism, with domestic travel volume projected to increase by 6.3% during the Qingming holiday and a continued positive trend for the May Day holiday [4][12] - The company's domestic platform booking growth is anticipated to outperform the industry, with outbound travel expected to create a new growth curve [4][25] - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) business profit margin is entering an upward cycle, with a projected profit margin of 26.9% in 2024, indicating room for improvement compared to industry leaders [4][39] Summary by Sections Business Review - The company was formed by the merger of Tongcheng and Elong in March 2018, focusing on differentiated positioning in the market. The strategic shift from user acquisition to ARPU enhancement began in 2023, resulting in a doubling of paying users [3][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.734 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 22% from 2018 to 2024, and an adjusted net profit of 2.785 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.4% during the same period [7][54] Future Outlook - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, benefiting from policies aimed at boosting service consumption. The domestic travel volume during major holidays is projected to account for 35.8% of the annual total, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [4][16] - The company is actively expanding its outbound travel business, with a projected growth of 130% in outbound flight bookings and 110% in hotel bookings by the end of 2024 [4][36] - The OTA business is expected to see profit margins improve, with a focus on optimizing marketing ROI and enhancing user engagement through targeted subsidies [4][39] Financial Projections - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts of 3.30 billion, 3.89 billion, and 4.53 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [5][47] - The overall profitability is expected to support a CAGR of over 17% in adjusted profits over the next three years, with current valuations still considered attractive [5][47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][20] Core Views - For Q1 2025, Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 176.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%. The growth is driven by strong performance in gaming, advertising, and a slight recovery in financial technology [4][7][8] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 56.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. The domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow by 18%, supported by stable performance from established games and the success of new titles [4][12][18] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to reach 31.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by the release of advertising inventory and advancements in advertising technology [4][16] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 55 billion yuan, with a 5% year-on-year increase, primarily from payment services [5][17] Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 176.5 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the previous year. The breakdown includes: - Value-added services: 87.8 billion yuan, up 12% - Online games: 56.1 billion yuan, up 17% - Advertising: 31.3 billion yuan, up 18% - Financial technology and enterprise services: 55 billion yuan, up 5% [9][10][19] Profitability - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 60.9 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 34.5% [5][8][9] Growth Drivers - The growth in gaming is attributed to the solid performance of established titles like "Peacekeeper Elite" and the rising popularity of new games such as "Delta Action," which has surpassed 12 million daily active users [4][18] - Advertising growth is supported by the steady increase in video traffic and the opening of more ad slots, with current ad loading rates at 4% [4][16] - Financial technology growth is linked to the recovery in offline consumption and increased demand for cloud services, with expectations for accelerated growth in Q2 2025 [5][17] Long-term Outlook - The report highlights significant long-term growth potential in areas such as WeChat e-commerce and AI-driven applications, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 251.5 billion, 282.6 billion, and 312.6 billion yuan, respectively [6][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][77]. Core Insights - The company achieved a core net profit growth of 20% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [8]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a core net profit of 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a core net profit margin of 20.6%, up by 0.8 percentage points [8]. - The company focuses on shareholder returns, with a total dividend of 1.536 yuan per share for 2024, which includes a special dividend of 0.614 yuan [8]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's commercial segment revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21% year-on-year, with shopping center revenue at 4.2 billion yuan, up 30% [28]. - The gross margin for the commercial segment was 72.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [28]. - The property management segment generated 10.7 billion yuan in revenue, a 12% increase, with a gross margin of 17.0%, down by 0.5 percentage points [59]. Business Structure - The commercial segment accounted for 37% of total revenue and 67% of gross profit, showing an increase of 2 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous year [8]. - The core business of property services and community value-added services continues to dominate, with a revenue and gross profit share of 92% and 85% respectively [59]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 4.08 billion yuan and 4.56 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.79 yuan and 2.00 yuan [77]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 18.8 and 16.8 respectively [77]. Efficiency and Management - The company improved its management efficiency, with a combined management and sales expense ratio of 7.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The asset turnover rate for 2024 was 60%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted return on equity (ROE) was 22%, up by 2 percentage points [8].

小鹏汽车（9868.HK）深度报告 小鹏汽车：科技平权 智驾先锋 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 新一轮产品周期强势开启，销量有望大幅回升。小鹏汽车于 2024Q3 推出 A+级智能纯电掀背轿跑 MONA M03，具备 15 万元级市场越级智能座舱与智驾 能力，配备同级别前列续航体验与动感外观设计，销量可持续性增强，帮助公司 率先下探至 10-15 万元主流市场，拉动整体销量；小鹏 P7+于 2024Q4 推出， 作为首款搭载低成本纯视觉智驾方案新车，有望在成本优化与技术创新上领先竞 品；2025 年，公司预计推出多款新车型，进一步丰富产品矩阵，推动经营基本 面改善。看好公司在新产品周期的驱动下，扩充产品矩阵，迎来销量大幅回升。 我们预计公司 2025 年销量有望达到 45 万辆以上，较 2024 年的 19.1 万辆，同 比大幅提升，进入高速增长区间。我们预计，汽车毛利率有望由不足 10%逐步上 移至 10-15%，公司或将于在 2025Q4 实现季度净利润转正。 ➢ 降本增效兑现，成本控制优化。公司持续推进渠道改革，进行直营加盟销售 体系整合、三大车型平台负责人更换、供应链反腐开展、"木星计划"方案 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) [1][28] Core Insights - The core business continues to show strong growth, with operational leverage being released [1] - The report anticipates a revenue of 1,778 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 11% [7][27] - The expected non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 is 617 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [7][27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,243 billion RMB, 7,891 billion RMB, and 8,604 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are 2,554 billion RMB, 2,891 billion RMB, and 3,235 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - The report predicts a non-IFRS EPS of 28 RMB, 31 RMB, and 35 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [27][28] Business Segment Performance Gaming - Expected revenue growth of 18% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 19% and 17% respectively [8][12] - Strong performance from long-standing games during the Spring Festival period [11][12] Marketing Services - Anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in video accounts, mini-programs, and search ads [18][19] - AI continues to enhance marketing services, improving ad targeting and conversion rates [25] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Expected revenue growth of 5% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with improvements in payment services and healthy growth in wealth management and small loans [26] - Cloud business potential is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025 [26] Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target market value of 5.0 trillion RMB (5.4 trillion HKD) for Tencent Holdings, corresponding to a target price of 603 HKD [28][29]

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 汇通达网络（09878.HK）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩短期承压，供应链升级不改长期趋势 目标价：13.3 港元 公司发布 2024 年财报，全年实现营业收入 600.6 亿元，同比减少 27.1%，实现 归母净利润 2.7 亿元，同比减少 39.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 证券分析师：杨澜 邮箱：yanglan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070008 证券分析师：姚婧 邮箱：yaojing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 60,059 | 66,135 | 71,451 | 77,182 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 270 | 349 | 481 | 658 | | 同比增速(%) | -39.8% | 29.5% | 37 ...