上 市 公 司 传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 27 日 快手-W (01024) ——内容驱动商业生态繁荣，投入 AI 提升平台效率 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 26 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 47.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7086.7 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 65.70/37.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,078.58 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,585.13 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.1064 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -37% -17% 3% 23% HSCEI 快手-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.co ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company shared its development strategy during the 2024 Investor Day, focusing on the synergy between content and commercial ecosystems to drive efficiency and sustainable operations [1] - The report highlights the importance of user-driven commercialization and content collaboration, leveraging AI to reshape the ecosystem [1] - The company aims to balance content distribution mechanisms with user feedback and commercial value to maximize overall returns [1] Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company is projected to be CNY 170.05 billion, CNY 236.02 billion, and CNY 301.92 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from CNY 113.47 billion in 2023 to CNY 126.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [4][6] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 54.0% in 2024 [4][6] Business Segments - In the e-commerce segment, the company reported an 18% year-on-year increase in live broadcast gross profit margin (GPM) for Q2 2024, with GMV growth close to 50% [1] - The number of product categories increased by 30% in Q2 2024, with a 25% rise in the number of new merchants [1] - The local life segment saw a sequential GMV growth of 22% and 30% in Q1 and Q2 of 2024 respectively, with a 278% year-on-year increase in monthly active trading users [1] Valuation - The report applies a PE valuation method, assigning a 14x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 60.89 per share [5][6] - The estimated market value of the company is CNY 2,381 billion, equivalent to HKD 2,640 billion [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Kuaishou Technology Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology's 2024 Investor Day highlighted the company's focus on technology innovation and user demand as the foundation for its growth strategy [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its e-commerce capabilities by improving the visibility of products through video and live streaming, addressing the challenges posed by cautious consumer spending and merchant profitability [5][6] - Kuaishou's international business is seeing steady growth, particularly in Brazil, with a focus on leveraging advanced advertising efficiency and local market opportunities [12] - The local life segment emphasizes user, merchant, and platform value, targeting lower-tier cities for growth [13][14] - Financial highlights include achieving a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong focus on shareholder returns through share buybacks [16] Summary by Sections Company Strategy and Core Business Development - Kuaishou emphasizes a user-oriented content and product ecosystem, with AI enhancements improving user value recognition [3][4] - The platform's user engagement remains strong, with 77% of users interacting with creators and a 7% year-on-year growth in private domain markets [3] E-commerce - The e-commerce strategy focuses on good products and good content, with a current user penetration rate of 19% indicating room for growth [5][6] - Live streaming and short video capabilities are being enhanced to drive consumer purchases, with significant growth in GMV from short videos [8] International Business - The international strategy is centered on Brazil, with a dedicated team and a focus on e-commerce and financial services [12] Local Life - The local life business has evolved through two phases, focusing on user and merchant value, particularly in lower-tier cities [13][14] Financial Highlights - Kuaishou reported a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong cash flow and significant share buyback plans [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 64.86 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has made significant advancements in AI model technology, enhancing content generation, understanding, and recommendation, which is expected to drive platform business growth [3][10]. - Short video advertising revenue has tripled year-on-year in the first half of 2024, contributing positively to the company's overall advertising revenue [4][11]. - The company is focusing on a multi-faceted content ecosystem, including live streaming, short videos, and text, to enhance user engagement and drive e-commerce growth [5][13]. Summary by Sections AI Ecosystem - The company is implementing three strategic directions to enhance AI model development: upgrading content understanding systems, optimizing recommendation systems with the new ACT model, and improving video generation capabilities [3][10]. - The ACT model is expected to increase daily app usage time by 1 billion minutes due to its efficient processing of user behavior data [10]. Short Video Advertising - In the first half of 2024, short video advertising revenue grew threefold, now accounting for a significant portion of total advertising revenue [4][11]. - The company has over 300 million short videos, with heavy users exceeding 140 million and paying users over 40 million [4]. E-commerce Growth - The company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 593.3 billion in the first half of 2024, growing 21% year-on-year, surpassing the overall domestic e-commerce market growth of 10% [13]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and marketing strategies to drive user purchasing intent and streamline decision-making processes [13]. Local Life Services - The local life business has seen a GMV increase of 296% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, with daily paying users growing by 37% [15]. - The company is collaborating with Meituan to expand its service coverage in smaller cities [15]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 176 billion, RMB 238 billion, and RMB 290 billion, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 127.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.31% [7][23].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 68, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 30.98 billion for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was approximately CNY 4.68 billion, also surpassing expectations, with a notable improvement in profit margins due to a better revenue structure and reduced bandwidth and server costs [1]. - User traffic showed steady growth, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 395 million, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, and average daily usage time per user increasing to 122 minutes, up 4% [2]. - Online marketing revenue grew by 22.1% year-on-year to CNY 17.5 billion, driven by significant growth in external advertising [3]. - The company's e-commerce GMV reached CNY 305.25 billion, growing 15% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed due to macroeconomic factors and increased competition [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 30.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% and an adjusted net profit of CNY 4.68 billion, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The gross margin improved due to a favorable revenue mix and lower costs associated with bandwidth and servers [1]. User Engagement - The average daily active users reached 395 million, with a monthly active user count of 692 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 2.7% respectively [2]. - Total user engagement time increased by 9.5% year-on-year, indicating robust user retention and engagement [2]. Marketing and E-commerce - Online marketing revenue surged by 22.1% year-on-year to CNY 17.5 billion, primarily due to strong growth in external advertising [3]. - E-commerce GMV was CNY 305.25 billion, with a 15% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has moderated due to external competitive pressures [4]. Live Streaming and Overseas Business - Live streaming revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to CNY 9.3 billion, but the number of signed agencies and streamers increased significantly [4]. - Overseas business revenue reached CNY 1.1 billion, marking a 141.4% year-on-year increase, with a focus on ROI-driven growth in key markets [4].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/传媒 证券研究报告 快手-W（1024）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 股票数据 0[9Ta月b0le2_日S收to盘ck价In（fo港] 元） 39.50 52 周股价波动（港元） 39.10-68.65 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 4334/4334 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） 171205/171205 [《Ta快b手le-_WR：e发po展rt进In入fo全] 面盈利时代，持续拓 展 场 景 生 态 建 设 和 深 挖 用 户 多 元 变 现》 国内业务稳步发展，海外业务持续减亏。24H1，公司收入为 603.83 亿元（同 比+14%），期内利润 81 亿元，经调整利润净额 90.67 亿元。其中 24Q2，公 司收入 309.75 亿元（同比+11.6%，环比+5.3%）；毛利率 55.3%（同比+5.1pct， 环比+0.5pct）；销售及营销开支占收比 32.4%（同比+1.3pct），主要是由于推 广活动开支增加；行政开支占收比 2.6%（同比-0.8pct），研发开支占收比 9.1% （同比-2.3pct），主要是由雇员福 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 快手-W（01024.HK）2024Q2 财报点评 推荐（维持） 盈利释放节奏或将持续，AI 矩阵优化经营 目标价：62.12 港元 当前价：39.40 港元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 24Q2 季报，总营收实现 309.75 亿元（yoy+11.6%），毛利率 55.3% （去年同期 50.2%），净利润 39.80 亿元 yoy+168.7%，经调整净利润 46.79 亿 元，yoy+73.7%，创单季历史新高。 评论： ❖ 持续打造精细化运营策略，流量的基本盘稳健。当前短视频用户基数大、渗透 率高，公司继续深化高质量用户增长策略，通过流量分配机制升级和用户洞察 探索，在提升营收的同时也在保护用户体验。24Q2 实现 DAU3.95 亿 （yoy+5.1%），MAU6.92 亿（yoy+2.7%），用户日均使用时长达 122 分钟 （yoy+4.0%），预计 DAU 在年内将突破 4 亿。此外，公司也在提升用户维系 投入的 ROI，实现用户流量端的高质量成长。 ❖ 商业化的两架马车继续拉动收入增速，在市场竞争中保持差异化优势。收入拆 分来看：①24Q2 的广告收入达 175.2 亿元（ ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 30,975 million, representing an 11.6% increase from RMB 27,744 million in Q2 2023[8] - Gross profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 17,135 million, with a gross margin of 55.3%, compared to RMB 13,934 million and 50.2% in Q2 2023, marking a 23.0% increase[8] - Operating profit surged to RMB 3,906 million in Q2 2024, a 201.4% increase from RMB 1,296 million in Q2 2023, reflecting improved operational efficiency[8] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 3,980 million, up 168.7% from RMB 1,481 million in Q2 2023, indicating strong profitability growth[8] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 4,679 million, a 73.7% increase from RMB 2,694 million in Q2 2023, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.1%[8] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 60,383 million, a 14.0% increase from RMB 52,961 million in the same period of 2023[9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 12,323 million, reflecting a 95.2% increase from RMB 6,312 million in the first half of 2023[9] User Engagement - Average daily active users (DAUs) increased to 395.3 million, up 5.1% year-on-year[16] - Average monthly active users (MAUs) reached 691.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[16] - The company reported a significant increase in user engagement, with a year-over-year growth of 25% in active users[89] Market Performance - Domestic revenue accounted for RMB 29,896 million in Q2 2024, while overseas revenue was RMB 1,079 million, indicating a strong domestic market performance[11] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[8] - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 30% increase in market share by the end of 2025[91] E-commerce Growth - E-commerce GMV for the first half of 2024 was RMB 593.3 billion, compared to RMB 490.2 billion in the same period last year, marking a significant increase[13] - E-commerce GMV in Q2 2024 reached RMB 305.3 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year growth, with monthly active buyers increasing by 14.1% to 131 million[19] - The company’s short video e-commerce GMV in Q2 2024 grew nearly 70% year-on-year, enhancing the synergy between short videos and live streaming[20] Revenue Streams - Online marketing service revenue grew by 22.1% year-on-year to RMB 17.5 billion in Q2 2024[17] - The gross profit margin improved to over 55% in Q2 2024, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 4.7 billion[15] - Live streaming revenue in Q2 2024 decreased by 6.7% to RMB 9.3 billion, with a focus on refining operational models and enhancing the live streaming ecosystem[21] Operational Efficiency - The company reported a significant increase in operating profit margin, with domestic operating profit margin at 48.3% in Q2 2024 compared to 11.6% overall[11] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 16.3% from RMB 8,636 million in Q2 2023 to RMB 10,040 million in Q2 2024, representing 32.4% of total revenue[32] - R&D expenses decreased by 11.1% from RMB 3,155 million in Q2 2023 to RMB 2,805 million in Q2 2024[32] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents amounted to RMB 11.4 billion, up from RMB 11.0 billion on March 31, 2024[55] - The total available funds as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 77.7 billion, an increase from RMB 63.7 billion on March 31, 2024[55] - The company reported a net financial income of RMB 66 million in Q2 2024, down from RMB 158 million in the same period of 2023[36] Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance code provisions during the reporting period, except for the separation of roles between the Chairman and CEO[96] - The company aims to enhance its corporate governance practices to align with legal and professional standards[96] - The corporate governance committee has confirmed that the company has taken sufficient measures to manage potential conflicts of interest with different voting rights beneficiaries[110] Stock Options and Employee Incentives - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to attract and retain talent, with a maximum issuance of 711,946,697 shares[169] - As of June 30, 2024, there are 43,049,250 unexercised stock options with a weighted average exercise price of HKD 16.27[171] - The company continues to focus on retaining and incentivizing key participants through its stock option plans[77] Future Outlook - The company has set a performance guidance of 20% revenue growth for the next quarter[89] - Future guidance indicates an expected revenue growth of 20% for the next six months, projecting total revenue of RMB 1.8 billion[200] - The management emphasized a commitment to improving ROI, aiming for a return of 15% on new investments[200]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 44.40 | 港元 54.00↓ | +21.6% | 快手 (1024 HK) 2 季度利润超预期，电商 GMV 增速放缓 2 季度利润超预期。快手 2024 年 2 季度总收入 310 亿元（人民币，下 同），同比增 12%，略超市场预期，主要因直播收入降幅低于预期。毛利 率同/环比升 5.1/0.5 个百分点至 55.3%，略好于我们预期的 54.9%。经调整 净利润 47 亿元（同/环比+74%/7%），好于我们/市场预期的 44/43 亿元。 2 季度业务分部概览：1）电商 GMV 同比增 15%，低于我们预期的 19%， 主要受头部主播停播及竞争影响，但月均动销商家数（同比+50%）及月 活跃买家数（MAC 1.31 亿，同比+14.1%，渗透 MAU 18.9%）维持增长趋 势。泛货架 GMV 占比超 25%。2）线上营销收入增 22%，主要受外循环广 告收入加速增长拉动，受益于付费短剧（日均消耗同比 ...