Kuaishou (1024 HK) Shelf-based ecommerce outperformed in 618 During the 618 promotion of 2024, Kuaishou emphasized more on good products at low price, with simpler approach and extended period. Pan shelf-based ecommerce performed well, with orders/paying users +65%/57% YoY. We estimate its GMV share from pan shelf-based ecommerce to be >25%, and 2Q24E ecommerce growth would be intact (forecasting GMV/other services revenue +25%/24% YoY). Despite mixed third party industrial data, we are positive on Kuaishou ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Insights - Kuaishou achieved a revenue of 29.408 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6%, with a net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 0.876 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company's online marketing services revenue reached 16.650 billion yuan, up 27.4% year-on-year, driven by enhanced smart marketing solutions and increased customer engagement [1] - E-commerce revenue surged by 47.6% year-on-year to 4.183 billion yuan, attributed to refined operational strategies and an increase in active paying users and merchants [1] - The average daily active users reached a record high of 394 million, with a daily usage time of 129.5 minutes, indicating strong user engagement [1] - The e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 28.2% year-on-year to 288.1 billion yuan, supported by improved consumer experience and an increase in active merchants [1] Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, Kuaishou's total sales cost was 13.288 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 54.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 3.994 billion yuan, with domestic operations contributing 3.991 billion yuan in profit, a significant increase from 0.963 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 15.179 billion yuan, 19.952 billion yuan, and 25.576 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][5]

[T快ab手le_S -Wtock（Na 1m 0eR 2p 4tT .y Hpe K] ） 公司研究/公司点评 24Q1 利润显著超预期，全年利润预期持续上调 [投Ta资bl评e_级Ra：nk买] 入（维持） 主要观点： 报告日期： 2024-05-30 ⚫ 事件 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 24Q1 财报，24Q1 快手实现营收 294.08 亿元（YoY [收T盘ab价le（_BHasKeDD）at a] 55.60 +16.6%），好于彭博预期的 290.44 亿元（YoY +15.2%）；24Q1 公司经 近12个月最高/最低（HKD） 72.50/38.40 总股本（百万股） 4340 调整归母净利润达43.88亿元，大幅好于彭博预期的31.98亿元。 流通股本（百万股） 3584 其中，24Q1 国内收入为 284.17 亿元（YoY +14.2%），国外收入为 流通股比例（%） 82.59 9.91 亿元（YoY +193.2%）；24Q1 国内经营利润同比提升 314.4%至 总市值（亿元） 2236.66 39.91亿元，国外经营亏损同比收窄67.4%至2.68亿元。 流 通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a target price of HK$72.00, representing a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HK$56.90 [1][3][11]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q1 2024 grew by 17% year-on-year to RMB 29.4 billion, aligning with expectations, while adjusted net profit margin exceeded forecasts at 14.9% [3][4]. - The e-commerce and advertising segments are expected to drive a significant increase in adjusted net profit, projected to grow by 85% year-on-year in 2024 [3][4]. - The company announced a share buyback plan of HK$16 billion over the next three years, aiming to repurchase approximately 2% of its shares annually [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 126.9 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with e-commerce GMV expected to grow by 24% [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is revised upwards to RMB 19.05 billion, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.0%, up from 9.1% in 2023 [4][10]. - The report forecasts EPS of RMB 4.35 for 2024, increasing to RMB 5.54 in 2025 and RMB 7.22 in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.7x for 2024 and 9.2x for 2025 [1][5][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 288 billion in Q1 2024, driven by an increase in monthly active users and a 70% rise in active merchants [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its multi-scenario shopping experience, with shelf e-commerce GMV growing over 50%, now accounting for 25% of total GMV [3][4]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 21% in 2024, supported by strong internal advertising growth and a recovery in external advertising [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 68 HKD, maintaining the rating [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 29.41 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6%. The adjusted net profit was approximately 4.39 billion HKD, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates, indicating a trend towards profit release [1]. - The company has shown strong growth in its core business, with a notable improvement in cost efficiency, leading to a significant reduction in sales expense ratio by 2.7 percentage points to 31.9% [1]. - User engagement metrics are positive, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 390 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and average daily usage time per user at 129.5 minutes, up 2.1% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing revenue for Q1 2024 was 16.65 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, driven by strong growth in both internal and external advertising [3]. - Other service revenues, including e-commerce, grew by 47.6% to 4.18 billion HKD, with e-commerce GMV reaching 288.07 billion HKD, a 28.2% increase year-on-year [4]. - Live streaming revenue was 8.58 billion HKD, showing a decline of 8% year-on-year, but the number of signed agencies and streamers increased by 50% [5]. International Business - The company's overseas business generated revenue of 0.991 billion HKD, marking a year-on-year growth of 193.2%, with a significant increase in marketing revenue [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of 80 HKD, corresponding to a 15x P/E for 2025 estimates [2][7]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q1 2024 reached 29.4 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 17%. The breakdown includes advertising revenue of 16.7 billion CNY (up 27%), live streaming revenue of 8.6 billion CNY (down 8%), and e-commerce revenue of 4.2 billion CNY (up 48%) [1][2]. - The company's Q1 gross margin improved to 54.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-over-year. Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 4.39 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.9%, up 14.7 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. - Daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) for Q1 were 394 million and 697 million, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 5.2% and 6.6% [1]. Revenue Breakdown E-commerce - Q1 e-commerce GMV reached 288.1 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 28%. The average monthly number of buyers was 126 million, up 22.4% year-over-year. The number of active merchants increased by over 70% year-over-year [1][2]. - The share of general merchandise in total GMV was 25% in Q1, with a 98% year-over-year increase in order volume during the New Year Festival [1]. Advertising - Q1 advertising revenue grew by 27% year-over-year, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue. The number of active marketing clients increased by 90% year-over-year [1][2]. - The average advertising revenue per DAU rose by 21% to 42.3 CNY [1]. Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue faced a decline due to ongoing content ecosystem governance, with expectations for continued pressure on growth in the short term [2]. AI and Innovation - Kuaishou is leveraging AI to enhance its business, with significant improvements in smart marketing solutions and user engagement through AI-driven interactions [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are estimated at 125.8 billion CNY for 2024, 141.7 billion CNY for 2025, and 155.7 billion CNY for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10%, respectively [2][5][6]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 17 billion CNY in 2024, 21.8 billion CNY in 2025, and 28.3 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 65%, 29%, and 30% [2][5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 reached 29.4 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. The adjusted profit margin grew by 15 percentage points, with a gross margin of 54.8%, up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to optimized revenue sharing in live streaming and reduced bandwidth and server costs [1][7] - The company has announced a share buyback plan of 16 billion HKD over the next three years, which reflects confidence in its business outlook [2][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was 4.39 billion HKD, with an adjusted profit margin of 14.9%, marking a 15% increase year-on-year and a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][7] Revenue and Profitability - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 113.47 billion HKD in 2023 to 162.79 billion HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% [3][14] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 10.27 billion HKD in 2023 to 30.99 billion HKD in 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [3][14] - The company’s EBIT margin is forecasted to improve from 2% in 2023 to 16.1% by 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3][14] User Engagement and Traffic - The total monthly active users (MAU) reached 702 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. Daily active users (DAU) stood at 391 million, up 4% year-on-year [9][10] - The average daily usage time per user was 129.5 minutes, which is a 2% increase compared to the previous year [9] Business Segments - E-commerce revenue for Q1 2024 was 4.2 billion HKD, showing a year-on-year increase of 48%. The gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 288.1 billion HKD, up 28% year-on-year [10][11] - Advertising revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to 16.7 billion HKD, with significant growth in internal advertising consumption [11] - Live streaming revenue, however, saw a decline of 8% year-on-year, with expectations of a further decrease in the upcoming quarters due to base effect considerations [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 73.82 HKD per share, based on a PE valuation of 17x for the year 2024 [3][5][10]. Core Insights - User growth remains healthy with 1Q24 DAU increasing by 5.2% year-over-year to 394 million and MAU up by 6.6% to 697 million. Average daily usage time per user is 129.5 minutes, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [1]. - Advertising revenue in 1Q24 grew by 27.4% year-over-year to 16.7 billion CNY, with active marketing clients increasing by 90%. The internal advertising cycle continues to grow rapidly, benefiting from algorithm optimization [1]. - E-commerce GMV in 1Q24 rose by 28.2% year-over-year to 288.1 billion CNY, with monthly active paying users increasing by 22.4% to 126 million [1]. - Live streaming revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year to 8.6 billion CNY, aligning with expectations due to ecosystem governance [1]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q24 reached 4.4 billion CNY, exceeding expectations, with a gross margin of 54.8% [1][2]. Summary by Sections User Metrics - 1Q24 DAU: 394 million (+5.2% YoY) - 1Q24 MAU: 697 million (+6.6% YoY) - Average daily usage time: 129.5 minutes (+2.1% YoY) [1]. Advertising Performance - 1Q24 advertising revenue: 16.7 billion CNY (+27.4% YoY) - Advertising as a percentage of total revenue: 56.6% - Active marketing clients: +90% YoY [1]. E-commerce Insights - 1Q24 GMV: 288.1 billion CNY (+28.2% YoY) - Monthly active paying users: 126 million (+22.4% YoY) - Monthly active merchants: +70% YoY [1]. Live Streaming - 1Q24 live streaming revenue: 8.6 billion CNY (-8% YoY) - Expected 2Q24 decline: 18% [1]. Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for 1Q24: 4.4 billion CNY - Gross margin: 54.8% (+8.4 percentage points YoY) - Sales expenses: 9.4 billion CNY, with a sales expense ratio decrease of 2.7 percentage points YoY [1][2].

华福证券 视频媒体 2024年05月24日 公 司 快手 （ ） -W 01024.HK 买入（维持评级） 研 究 经调整利润净额超预期，回购计划或彰显对未来 当前价格： 56.65港元 发展的信心 基本数据 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 4,339.59/3,583.83 事件： 流通市值(百万港元) 203,023.72 每股净资产(港元) 13.28 资产负债率(%) 50.53  公司发布2024Q1 业绩。2024Q1公司实现收入294.08 亿，同比增长 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 72.50/38.40 16.6%，其中国内收入284.17亿元，同比增长yoy+14.22%，海外收入9.91 一年内股价相对走势 亿元，同比增长193.20%；调整后利润净额43.88亿元，同比增长10347.6%。 公  公司发布股份回购计划。公司将于未来36个月内回购价值不超过160 司 亿港元的B类普通股，直到2027年将举行的股东周年大会结束为止。该计 财 划将于2024年6月13日起生效。 报 投资要点： 点 评  毛利率显著提升，或由于业务结构变化以及技术提升 团队成员 公司24Q1毛利率为54.8 ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 传媒 2024年05月26日 快 手-W（01024.HK）2024Q1财报点评 推 荐 （维持） 盈利表现亮眼；广告+电商双轮协同下，商业 目标价：71.15港元 化变现效率再提升 当前价：56.65港元 事项： 华创证券研究所  5月22日，快手发布截至2024年3月31日为止的一季报。财报显示，快手 证券分析师：刘欣 Q1的总收入为 294亿元，同比增长 16.6%，高于市场预期的 290亿元。按国 际会计准则的净利润为41亿元，同比扭亏；调整后净利润为44亿元，远超市 电话：010-63214660 场预期的32亿元，创单季历史新高。 邮箱：liuxin3@hcyjs.com 评论： 执业编号：S0360521010001  亮眼业绩答卷：流量端稳增、盈利大幅超预期。对短视频平台而言，流量和用 联系人：郭子萱 户粘性是大厦的根基。快手Q1的流量端：DAU达3.94亿（yoy+5.2%），MAU 邮箱： guozixuan@hcyjs.com 达 6.97 亿（yoy+6.6%），用户日均使用时长达 129.5 分钟（yoy+2.1%）； DAU/MAU为56.5%（ ...