盈利预测： EPS 按最新股数进行计算 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 快 手 -W （01024.HK） DAU 超 4 亿，平衡收入增长和利润释放 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 快手发布 24Q3 财 报 ： 24Q3 总 收 入 311 亿 元 人 民 币 ， YoY/QoQ+11%/+1%，符合彭博一致预期（310 亿元）。24Q3NonGAAP 净利润为 39.48 亿元, YoY/QoQ+24%/-16%, vs.一致预期为 39.15 亿元 （超 1%）。24Q3 毛利率为 54.33%,YoY/QoQ+2.6pct/-1.0pct。24Q3 MAU 达到 7.14 亿，YoY/QoQ+4%/+3%。 DAU 达 到 4.08 亿， YoY/QoQ+5%/+3%。三季度单日时长为 132 分钟，YoY/QoQ+2%/+8%。 ⚫ 24Q3 广告稳健增长，电商 GMV 企稳。（1）24Q3 直播收入为 93.38 亿 元，YoY/QoQ-4%/+0%,vs.一致预期为 92.13 亿元，持续优化生态供给。 （2）24Q ...

快手（1024） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|--------------|----------|---------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 11 月 21 日 | | 互联网 | 港元 46.40 | 港元 54.00 | +16.4% | | 3 季度业绩符合预期。快手 2024 年 3 季度总收入 311 亿元（人民币，下 同），同比增 11%，符合我们/市场预期。经调整净利润 39 亿元（同比 +24%），与我们/市场预期基本一致，对应经调整净利率 12.7%，环比降 2.4 个百分点，主要因奥运会内容版权摊销、短剧/电商补贴加大，以及 AI 研发投入增加。 业务概览：1）DAU 突破 4 亿，同比增 5%，总时长同比增 7%。2）电商 GMV 同比增 15%，符合预期，月均动销商家数（同比增 40%+）及月活跃 买家数（MAC 1.33 亿，同比+12%）维持增长趋势。泛货架 GMV 占比提升 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 31.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and adjusted net profit of 3.948 billion RMB, up 24.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Daily Active Users (DAU) surpassed 400 million, with DAU and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reaching 408 million and 714 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 4.3% [2] - The company continues to enhance its AI capabilities, integrating large models for content generation and understanding, which is expected to drive traffic growth and improve monetization efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 127.77 billion RMB, 142.80 billion RMB, and 156.11 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 8x, and 7x [4] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is revised to 17.6 billion RMB, 22 billion RMB, and 26.2 billion RMB respectively, indicating significant growth potential [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 50.58% in 2023, expected to rise to 57.05% by 2026, showcasing improving profitability [14] User Engagement and Advertising Performance - The company achieved a DAU/MAU ratio of 57.1%, indicating strong user engagement, with average daily usage time of 132 minutes, a 2% increase year-on-year [2] - Advertising revenue from external circulation remains robust, with online marketing service revenue growing by 20% to 17.6 billion RMB, driven by sectors such as media, e-commerce, and local services [3] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% to 334.2 billion RMB, supported by a favorable consumption environment and competitive strategies from other platforms [3]

证券研究报告 快手-W (1024 HK) 3Q 业绩符合预期,电商收入增速放缓 华泰研究 季报点评 2024 年 11 月 21 日│中国香港 互联网 快手 3Q 业绩：营收同比增长 11.4%至 311 亿，符合 VA 一致预期 (下同)。 毛利率同比改善 2.6pct 至 54.3%，经调整净利润同比增长 24.4%至 39.5 亿 （基本符合预期）。分业务看，直播、广告、电商收入同比分别变动-3.9%、 20.0%、17.5%。展望 4Q，我们预期总收入同比上涨 10%，广告收入和 GMV 增速同比分别放缓至 15%和 14%，经调整净利润达 48.1 亿。快手电商受益 于国补政策，双十一 GMV 表现较好，但目前市场也在观望 25 年直播电商 增速恢复的可能性。从中长线看，我们预期公司利润仍会持续改善，维持"买 入"评级。 3Q 电商增速放缓，货架电商占比提升 3Q 电商和其他收入同比增速放缓至 17.5%，略低于预期 0.8%。3Q 电商 GMV 同比增长 15.1%（符合预期），泛货架电商占比提升达 27%，短视频 电商同比增长超 40%。双十一期间，内容与泛货架 GMV 均实现同比显著增 长， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [2] Core Insights - Kuaishou achieved a record high in Daily Active Users (DAU) at 408 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 31.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase year-on-year, while Non-IFRS net profit was 3.95 billion yuan, up 24.4% year-on-year [3] - The report highlights strong growth in external advertising, which has become a key driver for revenue, with online marketing revenue increasing by 20% year-on-year to 17.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [3] - The e-commerce segment also showed robust growth, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reaching 334.2 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, and active buyers growing by 12.2% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the projected Non-IFRS net profits are 17.7 billion yuan, 22.6 billion yuan for 2025, and 30.2 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding Non-IFRS PE ratios of 11.86, 9.28, and 6.94 respectively [3][6] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 127.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 151.97 billion yuan by 2026, with a revenue growth rate of 12.1% in 2024 and gradually declining to 9.3% by 2026 [6][9] - The report indicates a significant improvement in profitability, with the return on equity (ROE) projected to rise from 21.53% in 2024 to 24% in 2026 [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, total revenue reached 31.1 billion RMB, growing by 11.4% year-over-year, driven by online marketing services and e-commerce business [12][13] - Adjusted net profit rose by 24.4% year-over-year to 3.9 billion RMB, indicating improved profitability [12][14] - Gross margin increased to 54.3%, up 2.6 percentage points year-over-year [12][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from online marketing services grew by 20% year-over-year to 17.6 billion RMB, representing 56.6% of total revenues [12][13] - E-commerce revenue reached 4.2 billion RMB, up 17.5% from the previous year, driven by increased GMV [12][13] - Live streaming revenue was 9.3 billion RMB, a decline of 3.9% year-over-year, but the decline is narrowing [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average daily active users (DAUs) reached 408 million, a 5.4% increase year-over-year, while monthly active users (MAUs) reached 714 million, up 4.3% [2][3] - Average daily time spent per DAU was 132.2 minutes, with total user time spent increasing by 7.8% [2][3] - E-commerce GMV increased by 15.1% year-over-year to 334.2 billion RMB [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on tech-driven, user-centric strategies to enhance user engagement and retention [2][3] - Continued investment in AI technology is a priority, with AI integrated into content creation and marketing strategies [12][20] - The company aims to expand its e-commerce capabilities by leveraging live streaming and short video content [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of the short video industry, citing strong user engagement and revenue growth [11][20] - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining DAU growth due to increasing market penetration of short videos but remains optimistic about user retention strategies [21][22] - Future growth will focus on enhancing content quality and optimizing algorithms to improve user experience [22][23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately HK$3.98 billion worth of shares, accounting for about 2.1% of total shares outstanding [14][15] - The overseas business saw total revenues of 1.33 billion RMB, growing by 104.1% year-over-year, with a significant reduction in operating losses [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Development of the company's AI - Management discussed the advancements in AI models, particularly the Clean AI 1.5 model, which supports enhanced video capabilities and has seen significant user engagement [16][17] Question: DAU and user time spent trends - Management highlighted the strategies implemented to achieve over 400 million DAUs and emphasized the importance of content quality and algorithm efficiency in maintaining user engagement [21][22] Question: Sustainability of online marketing growth - Management noted that the growth in short play marketing spending has been significant, with expectations for continued growth driven by enhanced user experience and product optimization [23][24]

Revenue Growth - Total revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 11.4% YoY to RMB 31.131 billion, with core business revenue (including online marketing services and e-commerce) growing nearly 20.0% YoY[2][13] - Domestic revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 29.8 billion, a 9.2% YoY increase, while overseas revenue surged 104.1% YoY to RMB 1.331 billion[6][8] - Total revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 11.4% year-over-year to RMB 31.1 billion, driven by growth in online marketing services and e-commerce business[32] - Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 91,514 million, up from RMB 80,909 million in the same period in 2023[94] - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, reached RMB 91,514 million, a 13.1% increase compared to RMB 80,909 million in the same period in 2023[112] Profitability - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 3.948 billion, a 24.4% YoY increase, reflecting improved profitability[2][13] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 rose 41.1% YoY to RMB 3.119 billion, driven by domestic operations[2][6] - Gross profit margin for Q3 2024 improved to 54.3%, up from 51.7% in Q3 2023[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 58.5% YoY to RMB 17.901 billion[4] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 3.3 billion, up from RMB 2.2 billion in Q3 2023[55] - Adjusted net profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 13,015 million, compared to RMB 5,909 million in the same period in 2023[86] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 17,901 million, up from RMB 11,292 million in the same period in 2023[86] - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 50,169 million, compared to RMB 40,099 million in the same period in 2023[94] - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 2.64, up from RMB 0.65 in the same period in 2023[94] - Domestic operating profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 11,994 million, a 67.7% increase from RMB 7,152 million in the same period in 2023[112] - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 2.64, a significant increase from RMB 0.65 in the same period in 2023[118] - Diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 2.58, compared to RMB 0.63 in the same period in 2023[120] User Metrics - Average daily active users (DAUs) reached 407.5 million in Q3 2024, up 5.4% YoY, surpassing the 400 million milestone[11][13] - Average daily active users (DAU) of Kuaishou app reached 408 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and monthly active users (MAU) reached 714 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%[15] - Total user time spent on Kuaishou app increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with daily live streaming and short video views nearing 110 billion[15] - During the 2024 Paris Olympics, Kuaishou's Olympic-related content exposure reached 310.6 billion, with 640 million users watching the Olympics on the platform and 15.9 billion interactions[16] - Daily search volume on Kuaishou exceeded 700 million in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 20.0%, with peak daily searches surpassing 800 million[16] - E-commerce monthly active buyers reached 133 million in Q3 2024, a 12.2% year-over-year increase, driven by diversified marketing strategies[24] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce GMV for Q3 2024 grew to RMB 334.162 billion, a 15.1% YoY increase[11] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.1% year-on-year to RMB 334.2 billion in Q3 2024, with monthly active merchants increasing by over 40.0% year-on-year[21] - Short video e-commerce GMV increased by over 40.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with live streaming slice contributions significantly increasing[23] - The proportion of general shelf e-commerce GMV in total e-commerce GMV increased to 27.0% in Q3 2024, with daily active merchants and buyers growing by nearly 70.0% and over 60.0% year-over-year, respectively[24] - Small and medium-sized merchants' daily GMV through live streaming increased by over 40.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, supported by the "New Star Plan"[23] Marketing and Advertising - Online marketing service revenue reached RMB 17.6 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%[17] - Short drama marketing consumption increased by over 300% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by the In-Apps Ads (IAA) short drama model[19] - The proportion of fully automated marketing solutions (UAX) in external marketing consumption reached approximately 50.0% in Q3 2024[19] - Online marketing service revenue grew by 20.0% year-over-year to RMB 17.6 billion in Q3 2024, supported by optimized algorithms and increased client spending[33] - Online marketing services revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, grew to RMB 51,799 million, a 23.0% increase from RMB 42,101 million in the same period in 2023[113] - Promotion and marketing expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased to RMB 27,981 million, up 15.1% from RMB 24,316 million in the same period in 2023[114] Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 9.3 billion, with a narrowing year-over-year decline, and the number of signed guilds and hosts increased by over 40.0% and 60.0%, respectively[25] - Live streaming revenue decreased by 3.9% year-over-year to RMB 9.3 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting efforts to build a healthier and more sustainable ecosystem[34] - Live streaming revenue remained stable at RMB 9.3 billion in both Q2 and Q3 2024[61] Costs and Expenses - Sales cost as a percentage of total revenue decreased to 45.7% in Q3 2024 from 48.3% in Q3 2023, with revenue sharing costs and related taxes accounting for 28.5%[37] - Sales cost increased by 5.4% from RMB 13.5 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 14.2 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher revenue-sharing costs, taxes, bandwidth, and server hosting expenses[38] - Gross profit rose by 17.0% from RMB 14.5 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 16.9 billion in Q3 2024, with gross margin improving from 51.7% to 54.3%[40] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 15.9% from RMB 8.9 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 10.4 billion in Q3 2024, accounting for 33.3% of total revenue, up from 32.0%[42] - R&D expenses grew by 4.5% from RMB 3.0 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 3.1 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher employee benefits[44] - Sales costs increased by 2.7% from RMB 13.8 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 14.2 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher revenue-sharing costs and related taxes, as well as increased content costs[65] - Gross profit decreased by 1.3% from RMB 17.1 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 16.9 billion in Q3 2024, with gross margin dropping from 55.3% to 54.3%[67] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 3.2% from RMB 10.0 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 10.4 billion in Q3 2024, accounting for 33.3% of total revenue, up from 32.4% in the previous quarter[69] - R&D expenses increased by 10.5% from RMB 2.8 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 3.1 billion in Q3 2024, mainly due to higher employee benefits and share-based compensation[71] Overseas Operations - Overseas revenue in Q3 2024 reached RMB 1.3 billion, a 104.1% year-over-year increase, with operating losses reduced by 75.9% to RMB 153 million[28] - Overseas operating loss narrowed by 75.9% from RMB 635 million in Q3 2023 to RMB 153 million in Q3 2024, supported by rapid overseas revenue growth[50] - Overseas revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 1,331 million, with a net operating loss of RMB 153 million[109] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 12.5 billion, compared to RMB 11.4 billion as of June 30, 2024[87] - Total available funds, including cash, cash equivalents, fixed deposits, financial assets, and restricted cash, were RMB 86.7 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 77.7 billion as of June 30, 2024[87] - Net cash generated from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 21,147 million, compared to RMB 7,598 million in the same period in 2023[89] - Net cash used in investing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 29,133 million, primarily due to investments in fixed deposits, property, equipment, and intangible assets[91] - Net cash generated from financing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 7,598 million, mainly from borrowings and notes issuance[92] - Net cash from operating activities was RMB 21,147 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 11,876 million for the same period in 2023[102] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 29,133 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 14,662 million for the same period in 2023[102] - Net cash from financing activities was RMB 7,598 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 675 million for the same period in 2023[102] Investments and Assets - Investments in financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss totaled RMB 20,711 million as of September 30, 2024, a significant increase from RMB 5,245 million as of December 31, 2023[123] - Total assets increased to RMB 132,095 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 106,296 million as of December 31, 2023[98] - Non-current assets rose to RMB 70,465 million as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 45,935 million as of December 31, 2023[98] - Current assets slightly increased to RMB 61,630 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 60,361 million as of December 31, 2023[98] - Total equity increased to RMB 58,353 million as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 49,074 million as of December 31, 2023[100] - Total liabilities rose to RMB 73,742 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 57,222 million as of December 31, 2023[100] Share Repurchases and Corporate Governance - The company repurchased a total of 51,070,000 Class B shares at a total cost of HKD 2,131,261,837.49 during the period from July to November 2024[128] - The highest price paid per share was HKD 54.95 in October 2024, while the lowest price was HKD 37.70 in August 2024[128] - A total of 56,742,800 Class B shares repurchased from June to October 2024 were canceled, reducing the number of issued Class B shares by 56,742,800[128] - Reach Best Developments Limited converted 9,813,662 Class A shares to Class B shares on a one-to-one basis to maintain the voting rights ratio[128] - The company has complied with all applicable code provisions of the Corporate Governance Code, except for the separation of Chairman and CEO roles[131] - The company's unaudited interim financial information for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, was prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards[132] - No other significant events affecting the group occurred after September 30, 2024, up to the date of the announcement[133] Definitions and Organizational Structure - GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) refers to the total value of all products and services transacted on the company's platform or redirected to partner platforms, excluding single transactions over RMB 100,000 and a series of transactions by a single buyer exceeding RMB 1,000,000 in a day unless settled[142] - The company's monthly active users (MAU) are calculated as the number of unique user accounts that access the application at least once per calendar month, excluding fraudulent accounts[142] - The company's organizational outline, adopted and effective on June 13, 2024, is subject to amendments[144] - Paying users are defined as user accounts that have purchased specific services at least once during a specific period[144] - The company's shares include Class A and Class B shares as per the context[144] - The company's subsidiaries are defined in accordance with the "Company Ordinance"[144] - The company's treasury shares are defined in accordance with the listing rules[144] - The company's ROI (Return on Investment) is a key metric for evaluating investment performance[144] - The company's platform includes the main station, the speed version, and the concept version of the mobile application[142] - The company's concept version of the mobile application was launched in November 2018 to explore different user needs and preferences[142]

买入（维持） 股价（2024年10月15日） 47.45 港元 目标价格 60.47 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 63.45/37.55 港元 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） 431,585/356,986 H 股市值（百万港币） 204,787 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒 报告发布日期 2024 年 10 月 16 日 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -9.96 24.38 -0.84 -25.16 相对表现% -7.05 7.4 -13.62 -39.22 恒生指数% -2.91 16.98 12.78 14.06 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 快手 3Q24 前瞻：流量端稳健增长，内容 和商业化均衡发展 核心观点 ⚫ 整合内容与商业资源、奥运转播效应助推平台 DAU 和时长预计环 ...

买入（维持） 股价（2024年10月15日） 47.45 港元 目标价格 60.47 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 63.45/37.55 港元 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） 431,585/356,986 H 股市值（百万港币） 204,787 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒 报告发布日期 2024 年 10 月 16 日 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -9.96 24.38 -0.84 -25.16 相对表现% -7.05 7.4 -13.62 -39.22 恒生指数% -2.91 16.98 12.78 14.06 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 快手 3Q24 前瞻：流量端稳健增长，内容 和商业化均衡发展 核心观点 ⚫ 整合内容与商业资源、奥运转播效应助推平台 DAU 和时长预计环 ...