Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company faced pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-to-date revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [2][4] - The company is entering a new phase of internationalization through a joint venture with international giants to build a specialized polyethylene integrated project in Fuzhou, expected to enhance its global competitiveness [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a 12.48% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year [2][3] - The company produced 1.38 million tons of polyurethane products in Q3, a 6.12% decrease from the previous quarter, but sales increased by 2.17% to 1.41 million tons [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant increases in raw material prices were noted in Q3 2024, with pure benzene up by 13.06%, propane by 25.16%, and butane by 24.35%, impacting overall net profit [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS is projected to be 6.20 yuan in 2024, 7.34 yuan in 2025, and 8.36 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0, 11.0, and 9.6 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.604 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% year-on-year to 11.093 billion yuan [2] - The revenue growth was driven by increased product output and sales, but the profit decline in Q3 was due to narrowed price spreads and equipment maintenance [2] - Capital expenditures have been consistently high, reaching 43.098 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31.97%, supporting long-term growth [2] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite short-term fluctuations, with projected net profits of 15.267 billion yuan, 18.914 billion yuan, and 22.404 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a decline in net profit due to lower product prices and maintenance shutdowns, with quarterly net profits of 4.157 billion yuan, 4.017 billion yuan, and 2.919 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2] - The company’s capital expenditures have been robust, with a total of 297.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a slight increase of 1.10% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue is 175.361 billion yuan for 2023, increasing to 195.812 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.7% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 15.267 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.2% compared to 2023, but expected to rebound with growth rates of 23.9% and 18.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased production capacity, with significant expansions in its MDI facilities, which are expected to enhance revenue generation in the long term [2] - Despite being in a cyclical industry, the company’s strong capital expenditure and self-sustaining growth model support its long-term investment appeal [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 is under short-term pressure due to falling product prices and maintenance of multiple facilities, but the expansion of MDI capacity is expected to enhance competitiveness in the polyurethane sector [2][9]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production levels following the completion of maintenance on relevant facilities, which should positively impact the polyurethane segment [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 197.41 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. Net profit is expected to decline by 8.7% to CNY 15.35 billion [9]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 147.60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit was CNY 11.09 billion, a decrease of 12.67% [1][9]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was CNY 50.54 billion, up 12.48% year-on-year, but net profit fell 29.41% year-on-year to CNY 2.92 billion [1][9]. Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the production volumes for the polyurethane, petrochemical, and new materials segments were 1.38 million tons, 1.30 million tons, and 450,000 tons, respectively, with significant declines in production due to maintenance [2]. - Sales volumes for the same segments were 1.41 million tons, 1.32 million tons, and 500,000 tons, showing mixed results with a slight increase in polyurethane sales [2]. Price Trends - The average prices for key products in Q3 2024 showed a decline for pure MDI and TDI, while prices for polymer MDI increased slightly due to improved demand in specific markets [3]. - The average price for pure benzene was CNY 8,442 per ton, up 13.06% year-on-year, while other petrochemical products experienced varied price changes [4][3]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 19.30 billion, an increase of 12.65% year-on-year, while investment cash flow was negative at CNY -30.62 billion [7]. - The report highlights a rise in accounts receivable by 28.14% year-on-year, indicating potential liquidity concerns [7]. Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is expanding its MDI capacity with a new project in Fujian, increasing annual capacity to 1.5 million tons, which is expected to strengthen its market position in the polyurethane sector [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% to 2.919 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs [4][6] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, leading to a year-on-year increase in the sales volume of major products. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sales volume of the polyurethane series reached 4.1 million tons, up 14.21% year-on-year [4][5] - New production capacities are being launched, with significant advancements in self-developed POE industrialization and the successful commissioning of a 48,000 tons/year citral facility [5][6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 175.361 billion yuan in 2023 to 241.167 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.9% [7][10] - The net profit is expected to decline to 14.895 billion yuan in 2024 but is projected to recover to 22.250 billion yuan by 2026 [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.74 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.09 yuan in 2026 [6][10] Product Performance - The polyurethane series is expected to generate revenue of 67.386 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 27.69% [8] - The petrochemical series is projected to have a revenue of 23.836 billion yuan in 2023, with a significantly lower gross margin of 3.51% [8] - The fine chemicals and new materials series are anticipated to generate 27.471 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 21.42% [8] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as Hualu Hengsheng and Yangnong Chemical, with an average PE ratio of 14.96 for 2023 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.09 billion yuan [4][5]. - The polyurethane segment showed strong demand in the refrigeration sector, with Q3 sales reaching approximately 18.79 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, despite weak demand in the textile sector [6]. - The petrochemical segment faced pressure from high costs and declining product prices due to falling oil prices, with Q3 revenue of 22.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [7]. - The new materials segment continued to grow, with Q3 production up 15.4% year-on-year, although prices for key products like HDI and IPDI saw declines [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand during the traditional peak season from September to November, supported by supply-side constraints [19][20]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 179.13 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [5][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 4.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 [5][25]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with Q3 operating cash inflow of 9.01 billion yuan, supporting stable operations [11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the MDI market, with expectations of reaching nearly 40% global market share by 2025 due to new capacity expansions [4][20]. - High R&D investment and capital expenditures are expected to support the company's long-term growth and development as a leader in the global chemical industry [23][24].

当前价格（元） 75.25 2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杨丽蓉 S0350524090008 yanglr@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 业绩受宏观需求影响，新项目稳步推进 ——万华化学（600309）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 10 月 28 日，万华化学发布 2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度公 司实现营业收入 1476 亿元，同比增长 11.4%；实现归母净利润 111 亿元， 同比减少 12.7%；经营活动现金流净额为 193 亿元，同比增加 13%。毛 利率 15.4%，同比下降 1.4 个 pct，净利率 8.3%，同比下降 2.1 个 pct。 2024 年 Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 505 亿元，同比+12.5%，环比 -0.7%；实现归母净利润为 29.2 亿元，同比-29.4%，环比 ...

万华化学（600309.SH） 化学制品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 31 日 检修叠加成本抬升致业绩短期承压，看好公司长期成长性 ——万华化学 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------- ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 年万华化学三季报点评 沈唯(分析师) 0755-23976795 [table_Authors] shenwei024936@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523080006 本报告导读： 公司三季报业绩低于预期，但考虑到公司竞争优势仍突出且多项目投产在即，维持 "增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。由于公司 Q3 业绩低于预期，下调公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 4.62/6.00/7.94 元（原为 6.27/7.51/8.50 元）。参考可比 公司估值，给予公司 2025 年 15.13 倍 PE，维持目标价为 90.76 元。 公司 Q3 业绩低于预期。公司 2024 年前三季度实现收入 1476 亿元， 同比+11.35%，实现归母净利润 110.93 亿元，同比-12.67%。其中， 公司 2024Q3 单季度实现收入 505.4 亿，同比+12.48%，环比-0.73%； 单季度归母净利润 29.2 亿，同比-29.41%，环比-27.33%。盈利能力 方面，Q3 毛利率 13. ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|万华化学（600309） Q3 业绩承压，新项目稳步推进 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 1476 亿元，同比+11%；归母净利润 110.9 亿元，同比-13%。 其中 2024Q3 实现营业收入 505.4 亿元，同比+12%，环比-1%；归母净利润 29.2 亿元，同比29%，环比-27%。2024 年前三季度公司部分产品价格同比下降，但主要原材料价格持续维持高 位，同时 2024Q3 公司烟台、欧洲主要装置集中检修，导致 Q3 利润同环比下降。短期来看， 检修产能恢复有望带来盈利改善；长期来看，聚氨酯、石化、新材料板块均有诸多储备项目， 2024Q3 末在建工程余额达 697 亿元，未来伴随在建项目逐步落地，有望持续贡献业绩增量。 |分析师及联系人 张玮航 许隽逸 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524060003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月30日 ...

基础化工/化学制品 公 司 研 究 Q3 利润短期承压，看好未来业绩修复和长期成长 万华化学（600309.SH） 2024 年 10 月 30 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 金益腾（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 龚道琳（分析师） | 李思佳（联系人） | | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号： S0790522010001 | 证书编号： S0790123070026 | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 股价走势图 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 万华化学 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《多项目稳步推进，看好公司长期成 长潜力 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.14 《Q1 业绩符合预期 ...