Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness in 2025, which is designated as a "transformation year," maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Investment Highlights - The "buy" rating is maintained despite significant pressure on the company's petrochemical business, leading to a downward revision of the 2025-2026 EPS estimates to 4.20, 5.45, and 6.07 yuan respectively (previously 6.00, 7.94, and not available) [2] - The target price is adjusted to 67.70 yuan from 90.76 yuan, based on a 16.12 times PE ratio for 2025 [2] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.49% [2] - Q4 2024 revenue was 34.47 billion yuan, down 19.49% year-on-year and 31.80% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, down 52.83% year-on-year and 33.55% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The decline in Q4 performance was primarily due to impairment losses of 732 million yuan and other expenses of 908 million yuan [2] - The petrochemical segment's profitability remains under pressure, with a full-year gross margin of 3.52% and a significantly lower margin of 2.31% in the second half of 2024 [2] Q1 2025 Performance and Strategic Initiatives - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.70% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.96%, with a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, down 25.87% year-on-year but up 58.89% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company is implementing a series of management changes to foster organizational vitality and expand market boundaries, including changes in mindset, organization, budgeting, and incentive mechanisms [3] - The successful commissioning of multiple facilities at the Wanhua Penglai base has contributed to increased sales volumes, although profits have declined due to falling product prices [3] - The company is focusing on transforming its management thinking from a management-oriented approach to a performance-oriented approach [3] Project Developments - The company has a diverse business portfolio, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials [3] - The second TDI project in Fujian, with a capacity of 330,000 tons/year, is expected to be completed in May 2025, bringing total TDI capacity to 1.44 million tons/year [4] - A 250,000 tons/year LDPE facility in Yantai successfully commenced operations at the beginning of 2025, laying a solid foundation for entering the high-end polyolefin sector [3][4] - The MS and XLPE projects are progressing steadily, with expected completion in 2025 [4]

| 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量 | 持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 烟台国丰投资控股集团有限公司 | 677,764,654 | 21.59% | | 2 | 烟台中诚投资股份有限公司 | 330,379,594 | 10.52% | | 3 | 宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司 | 301,808,357 | 9.61% | | 4 | Prime Partner International Limited | 172,993,229 | 5.51% | | 5 | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 135,419,392 | 4.31% | | 6 | 中国证券金融股份有限公司 | 73,348,508 | 2.34% | | 7 | 中国工商银行－上证 50 交易型开放式指数证 券投资基金 | 37,155,124 | 1.18% | | 8 | 中国工商银行股份有限公司－华泰柏瑞沪深 300 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 33,963,787 | 1.08% | | 9 | 中国建设银行股份有限公司－易方达沪深 300 交易型开放式指数发起式证券投资基金 ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 3.83% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.49% to 13.03 billion yuan [7] - The polyurethane segment achieved a revenue of 75.84 billion yuan, up 12.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.15% [8] - The petrochemical segment generated a revenue of 72.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.60%, with a gross margin of 3.52% [9] - The company expects continued growth in production and sales in the polyurethane sector, supported by new projects coming online in 2025 and 2026 [12] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.36 billion yuan, 16.50 billion yuan, and 17.37 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.02, 10.46, and 9.94 [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.70% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 25.87% year-on-year [7] - The company faced challenges in Q4 2024, with a revenue drop of 19.49% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 52.83% [7] Production and Sales - The total production and sales of polyurethane products reached 5.8 million tons and 5.64 million tons respectively, showing an increase of 810,000 tons and 750,000 tons year-on-year [8] - The petrochemical segment's production and sales were 5.44 million tons and 5.47 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 690,000 tons and 750,000 tons [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to complete the construction of a new TDI project in Fujian by May 2025, which will add 330,000 tons of annual capacity [8] - The company plans to introduce a strategic investor with rich LPG resources to ensure a stable supply of raw materials [9]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 3.83% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.49% to 13.03 billion yuan [7] - The polyurethane segment achieved a revenue of 75.84 billion yuan, up 12.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.15% [8] - The petrochemical segment generated a revenue of 72.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.60%, with a gross margin of 3.52% [9] - The company expects continued growth in production and sales in the polyurethane sector, supported by new projects coming online in 2025 and 2026 [12] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.36 billion yuan, 16.50 billion yuan, and 17.37 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.02, 10.46, and 9.94 [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.70% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 25.87% year-on-year [7] - The company faced significant impairment losses and non-current asset write-offs, impacting overall profitability [8] Production and Sales - The company’s production and sales volumes for polyurethane and petrochemical segments showed steady growth, with total production volumes of 580,000 tons and 544,000 tons respectively in 2024 [8][9] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 33,000-ton TDI project expected to be operational in May 2025 [8][12] Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the polyurethane and new materials sectors will continue to grow, driven by new capacity and favorable market conditions [12] - The company is also exploring strategic partnerships to ensure stable supply of raw materials [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline in performance are the significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, as well as in the petrochemical sector with MTBE and PVC. Although raw materials like pure benzene and LPG also saw price declines, the extent was smaller, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin. In Q4 2024, there was a significant improvement in the market conditions for MDI and other products, resulting in a quarterly increase in gross margin, but substantial asset impairment provisions and asset write-offs negatively affected net profit [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its sales price, sales volume, and raw material price assumptions based on macroeconomic changes. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 4.37 yuan and 5.23 yuan respectively (previously 5.91 yuan and 6.83 yuan), with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.40 yuan. The comparable company PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15 times, and due to the company's long-term ROE and historical growth being more prominent, a 15% valuation premium is applied, resulting in a target price of 74.29 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Key Financial Information - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 182.07 billion yuan, 210.05 billion yuan, 224.90 billion yuan, and 234.10 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.8%, 15.4%, 7.1%, and 4.1% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 16.82 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.03 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 13.73 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 16.43 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.09 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2025, before recovering to 17.9% by 2027 [8]. Market Performance - The company's absolute performance over the past week, month, three months, and year has been -8.65%, -19.84%, -19.85%, and -35.27% respectively. In comparison, the relative performance has been -9.24%, -13.97%, -18.81%, and -40.95% against the CSI 300 index [2]. Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - The capital expenditure intensity has decreased, with a fixed asset increase of 20 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The construction in progress has decreased from a peak of 69.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024 to 47.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in capital expenditure intensity [10]. - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly due to changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty, leading to further declines in oil prices and prices of most bulk chemical products. The impact of the Sino-US trade dispute may affect raw materials like ethane and LPG, although the company has long-term strategic partners in the Middle East to mitigate some of these pressures [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical's financial performance has declined significantly, with both revenue and net profit decreasing in 2025 Q1 compared to the previous year, primarily due to falling product prices and reduced gross margins [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wanhua Chemical reported revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while net profit was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.49% [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a more severe decline, with revenue of 34.5 billion yuan, down 19.49% year-on-year and 31.8% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, down 52.8% year-on-year [3]. - For 2025 Q1, the company achieved revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.70% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, down 25.87% [5]. Product Pricing and Market Conditions - The average prices for Wanhua's key products in 2024 were as follows: pure MDI at 19,037.45 yuan/ton (down 5.28%), polymer MDI at 17,297.21 yuan/ton (up 8.18%), and TDI at 14,452.49 yuan/ton (down 20.09%) [3]. - The decline in TDI prices is attributed to an oversupply situation, while the polymer MDI market showed a balanced supply-demand dynamic [4][5]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, Wanhua Chemical had cash and cash equivalents of 22.68 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings and current liabilities totaling 46.74 billion yuan, indicating significant short-term debt pressure [2][8]. - The company's financial expenses reached 2.09 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 16% of net profit, due to increased interest-bearing debt [8]. Dividend and Share Buyback - Wanhua Chemical plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 2.29 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.18 billion yuan compared to 2023 [6]. - The company’s chairman proposed a share buyback of 300 to 500 million yuan to enhance shareholder confidence and optimize capital structure [6]. Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - Wanhua Chemical continues to expand its production capacity, with MDI and TDI capacities expected to reach 4.5 million tons and 1.44 million tons, respectively, after ongoing projects are completed [7][8]. - The company faces challenges with rising debt levels and potential asset impairment risks, as indicated by a significant increase in asset impairment losses in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 74.29 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion CNY, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion CNY, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion CNY, down 25.9% year-on-year. The decline is primarily due to significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, while raw material prices like pure benzene and LPG fell less sharply, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported the following financial metrics: - 2023 Revenue: 175.36 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.9% - 2024 Revenue: 182.07 billion CNY, with a growth of 3.8% - 2025 Estimated Revenue: 210.05 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.4% - 2024 Net Profit: 13.03 billion CNY, down 22.5% - 2025 Estimated Net Profit: 13.73 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.3% - 2025 Estimated EPS: 4.37 CNY [8][6] Market Conditions and Strategic Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure intensity, with fixed assets increasing by 20 billion CNY in 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The second phase of the ethylene project is expected to impact profits mainly in Q2 [10] - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly from changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty and raw material prices. Despite having long-term strategic partners in the Middle East, short-term cost pressures are anticipated [10]

聚氨酯 万华化学（600309.SH） 买入-B(维持) | 收盘价（元）： | 54.99 | | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | 100.40/54.56 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | 31.40/31.40 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | 1,726.55 | | 总市值（亿）： | 1,726.55 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.98 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.98 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 34.23 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 3.14 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | 技改扩能产销同比增长，成本控制能力与产品竞争力提升 2025 年 4 月 18 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 资料来源：最闻 市场数据：2025 年 4 月 18 日 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 王金源 邮箱：wangjinyuan@sxzq.com 4 月 14 日，公司发布《202 ...

聚氨酯 万华化学（600309.SH） 买入-B(维持) | 收盘价（元）： | 54.99 | | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | 100.40/54.56 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | 31.40/31.40 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | 1,726.55 | | 总市值（亿）： | 1,726.55 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.98 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.98 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 34.23 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 3.14 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | 李旋坤 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 王金源 邮箱：wangjinyuan@sxzq.com 技改扩能产销同比增长，成本控制能力与产品竞争力提升 2025 年 4 月 18 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 4 月 14 日，公司发布《2024 年年度报告》与《2025 年一季度报告》，20 ...

(%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (20.6) (20.7) (18.3) (36.4) 相对上证综指 (21.0) (16.5) (19.5) (45.3) (35%) (25%) (15%) (6%) 4% 14% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 万华化学 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 3,139.75 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 3,139.75 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 173,784.98 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 1,553.52 | | 主要股东 | | | 烟台国丰投资控股集团有限公司 | 21.59% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 16 日收市价为标准 600309.SH 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 18 日 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 55.35 板块评级:强于大市 ...