国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——3Q24 三季度业绩点评 业绩低于预期，短期因素影响 青岛啤酒(600600) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 姚世佳 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38676912 | | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yaoshijia@gtjas.com | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520070001 | | ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|青岛啤酒（600600） 三季报点评：吨价降幅放缓，销售费用 增加净利率短期承压 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告，2024Q3 公司实现收入 88.91 亿元，同比-5.28%；归母净利润 13.48 亿元，同比-9.03%；扣非归母净利润 12.60 亿元，同比-7.94%。Q3 吨价降幅环比收窄， 成本红利延续。三季度啤酒需求偏弱，公司加大销售费用投入与市场推广力度，净利率短期承 压。考虑到公司是国产啤酒高端化龙头，吨价提升仍有空间，当前基数逐步转低，且 Q4 成本 红利有望延续，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月30日 青岛啤酒(600600) 三季报点评：吨价降幅放缓，销售费用增加 净利率短期承压 | - ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 29 日 青岛啤酒 (600600) ——外部需求疲软压制 Q3 经营表现 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |--------|------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 29 日 | | | 收盘价（元） | 68.51 | | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 88.02/53.20 | | 市净率 | | 3.3 | | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.92 | | 流通 | A 股市值（百万元） | 48,576 | | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 3,286.41/10,543.33 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | ...

青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 优于大市 第三季度销量同比下滑，盈利能力承压 青岛啤酒公布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 289.59 亿 元，同比-6.52%；实现归母净利润 49.90 亿元，同比+1.67%；实现扣非归母 净利润 46.86 亿元，同比+1.96%。第三季度实现营业总收入 88.91 亿元，同 比-5.28%；实现归母净利润 13.48 亿元，同比-9.03%；实现扣非归母净利润 12.60 亿元，同比-7.94%。 第三季度销量同比仍下滑，主因啤酒消费市场需求低迷。销量方面，第三季度 公司啤酒销量同比-5.11%，主因啤酒消费市场需求低迷。据国家统计局数据， 第三季度全国规模以上企业啤酒产量同比有中单位数下滑。分产品看，青岛 主品牌销量同比-4.15%，其中中高端以上产品销量同比-4.54%；其他品牌销 量受到中低端市场容量收缩、公司主动调整产品结构的影响，同比下滑幅度 更大（-6.34%）。均价方面，第三季度千升酒收入同比-0.18%，反映产品结 构欠佳。但第三季度千升酒收入同比降幅环比第二季度有所收窄。 第三季度增投销售费用，净利率转为同比下行。第三季度毛 ...

2024 年 10 月 29 日 公司研究 Q3 量价降幅收窄，成本延续改善趋势 ——青岛啤酒（600600.SH）2024 年三季报业绩点评 要点 事件：青岛啤酒发布 2024 年三季报，24 年前三季度实现营业收入 289.6 亿元， 同比-6.5%；归母净利润 49.9 亿元，同比+1.7%；扣非归母净利润 46.9 亿元， 同比+2%。其中，24Q3 实现营业收入 88.9 亿元，同比-5.3%；归母净利润 13.5 亿元，同比-9%；扣非归母净利润 12.6 亿元，同比-7.9%。 结构升级韧性仍在，Q3 量价降幅环比收窄。 24Q3 公司收入同比-5.3%，主要受销量拖累。分量价两个维度看，1）量：公司 24Q3 销量为 215.5 万千升，yoy-5.1%；其中中高端以上产品销量同比-4.7%， 销量下滑幅度低于公司整体水平。旺季销量下滑主要系国内啤酒市场消费低迷， 以及今年雨水天气较频繁；分结构看，主要系低端产品销量下滑较多。2）价： 公司 24Q3 吨价为 4126 元/千升，yoy-0.2%。整体来看，24Q3 量价同比降幅均 较 24Q2 收窄（24Q2 销量 yoy-8.0%，吨价 y ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Tsingtao Brewery [1] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 8.89 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.35 billion, down 9.0% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 revenue was RMB 28.96 billion, down 6.5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.69 billion, up 2.0% YoY [1] - The company is actively controlling inventory and preparing for next year, with channel inventory continuing to decline [1] - High-end product sales outperformed overall sales, with Q3 high-end product volume up 4.1% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points YoY to 42.1% in Q3, driven by cost savings [1] - Sales expenses increased due to offline promotions and Olympic advertising, leading to a slight decline in net profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is expected to be RMB 32.125 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.35 billion, up 1.9% YoY [2] - 2025E revenue is forecasted to grow 2.9% YoY to RMB 33.065 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.92 billion, up 13.1% YoY [2] - 2026E revenue is projected to increase 2.8% YoY to RMB 34.004 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.425 billion, up 10.3% YoY [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.6% in 2024E to 44.6% in 2026E [2] - ROE is forecasted to be 19.9% in 2024E, declining to 16.8% in 2026E [2] Operational Highlights - Q3 2024 sales volume decreased by 5.1% YoY, while average selling price (ASP) declined by 0.2% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 sales volume decreased by 7.0% YoY, with ASP increasing by 0.5% YoY [1] - High-end product sales volume in Q1-3 2024 decreased by 6.2% YoY, but still outperformed overall sales [1] - The company's cost savings helped offset increased marketing expenses, supporting profitability [1] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - Current stock price implies a P/E ratio of 21.48x for 2024E, declining to 17.23x by 2026E [2] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 12.44x in 2024E to 8.61x in 2026E [2] - The company's focus on inventory control and cost management is expected to support recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1] - Maintain "Buy" rating based on the company's strategic initiatives and improving profitability outlook [1]

证券研究报 告 青岛啤酒（600600）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 费投拖累业绩，来年轻装上阵 目标价：90 元 当前价：68.51 元 公司研究 啤酒 2024 年 10 月 29 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for the third quarter was RMB 8.89 billion, a decrease of 5.28% year-over-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was RMB 4.99 billion, an increase of 1.67% year-over-year[4] - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 28,959,288,497, a decrease of 6.52% compared to RMB 30,978,047,855 in the same period of 2023[14] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was RMB 4,989,889,602, an increase of 1.67% compared to RMB 4,907,707,530 in the same period of 2023[15] - Basic earnings per share for the third quarter were RMB 0.989, a decrease of 9.35% year-over-year[2] - Basic earnings per share increased by 1.52% to RMB 3.667 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 3.612 in the same period of 2023[16] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 5,126,263,206, an increase of 2.41% compared to RMB 5,005,455,506 in the same period of 2023[16] Sales Volume and Product Performance - Total product sales volume for the first three quarters was 6.785 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao Beer accounting for 3.835 million kiloliters[4] - Sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 2.779 million kiloliters, with revenue per kiloliter increasing by 0.49% year-over-year[4] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was RMB 6.23 billion, an increase of 22.55% year-over-year[2] - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period were RMB 50.37 billion, an increase of 2.26% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 29.8 billion, an increase of 8.55% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets increased to 503.71 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, compared to 492.56 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11][12] - Monetary funds rose to 21.68 billion yuan, up from 19.28 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Trading financial assets grew to 3.47 billion yuan, compared to 1.92 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Accounts receivable increased to 156.03 million yuan from 100.39 million yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Inventory decreased to 2.03 billion yuan from 3.54 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Total current assets slightly decreased to 291.20 billion yuan from 296.12 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Total non-current assets increased to 212.51 billion yuan from 196.44 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Fixed assets grew to 112.13 billion yuan, up from 111.46 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Intangible assets increased to 26.57 billion yuan from 24.93 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Contract liabilities decreased to 54.44 billion yuan from 76.91 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Total liabilities decreased by 6.2% to RMB 19,698,994,899 as of the end of Q3 2024, compared to RMB 21,001,264,174 at the end of 2023[13] - Undistributed profits increased by 11.12% to RMB 22,595,561,322 as of the end of Q3 2024, compared to RMB 20,334,065,296 at the end of 2023[13] - Sales revenue from goods and services received in cash for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 30.97 billion, a decrease from RMB 32.15 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Total cash inflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 31.93 billion, down from RMB 32.87 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 increased to RMB 6.23 billion, up from RMB 5.08 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash outflows for purchasing goods and accepting services in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased to RMB 13.67 billion from RMB 15.32 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Cash payments for employee compensation in the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 4.19 billion, slightly up from RMB 4.08 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Net cash flow from investing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 7.45 billion, compared to negative RMB 3.50 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash payments for investments in the first three quarters of 2024 increased to RMB 13.09 billion from RMB 12.70 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Net cash flow from financing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 2.86 billion, similar to negative RMB 2.84 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 4.07 billion, compared to negative RMB 1.25 billion in the same period of 2023[19] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 5.22 billion, down from RMB 11.59 billion at the end of the same period in 2023[19] Operating Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 22,850,123,111, a decrease of 8.52% compared to RMB 24,978,263,085 in the same period of 2023[14] - R&D expenses increased by 60.6% to RMB 56,739,137 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 35,319,783 in the same period of 2023[14] - Sales expenses decreased by 1.79% to RMB 3,420,705,236 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 3,483,073,568 in the same period of 2023[14] - Financial income increased by 28.96% to RMB -433,974,719 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB -336,503,057 in the same period of 2023[14] Non-Recurring Items - Non-recurring gains and losses for the first three quarters amounted to RMB 303.7 million, primarily from government subsidies and financial asset gains[5] Return on Equity - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) for the third quarter was 4.63%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points year-over-year[3]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 结构升级韧性仍在，盈利能力稳中有升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | [Table_DataInfo] | 评级： 买入 股票代码： | | 600600 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 91.3/53.94 | | 目标价格： | 总市值(亿) | | 736.12 | | 最新收盘价： | 53.96 | 自由流通市值 (亿) | 382.59 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 709.03 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司24H1营业收入200.68亿元，同比-7.1%，归母净利润36.42亿元，同比+6.3%，扣非归母净利润34.27 亿元，同比+6.15%。据此推算，公司 24Q2 营业收入 99.2 亿元，同比-8.89%，归母净利润 20 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨青岛啤酒（600600.SH） [Table_Title] 青岛啤酒 2024 年中报点评：量价有所承压，成 本红利持续兑现 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 营业总收入 200.68 亿元（同比 -7.06% ）；归母净利润 36.42 亿元（同比 +6.31% ）， | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 相关研究 [Table_Title 青岛啤酒 2024 2] 年中报点评：量价有所承压，成 本红利持续兑现 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2024H1 营业总收入 200.68 亿元（同比-7.06% ...