Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a trend of increasing mid-term cash dividends, with several banks announcing significant payouts, indicating a stable earnings outlook and attractiveness for conservative investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Mid-term Dividends - As of January 23, 2025, Huaxia Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank distributed over 3 billion yuan in cash dividends, contributing to a total of 25 A-share listed banks that have completed dividend payouts [1][2]. - A total of 31 A-share listed banks announced mid-term dividends for 2025, with 25 having released their plans and completed payouts. The six major state-owned banks collectively distributed 204.657 billion yuan, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading at 50.396 billion yuan [2]. - China Merchants Bank made its first mid-term dividend distribution of 25.548 billion yuan, with a per-share payout of 1.013 yuan, marking a 35% dividend ratio, the highest among listed banks [2]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The banking sector remains attractive for stable funds due to its high dividend yield and stable earnings expectations, particularly for large banks and quality regional banks [3][4]. - Recent share buybacks by major shareholders and executives in banks like Nanjing Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank indicate confidence in the sector, with Nanjing Bank's major shareholder increasing its stake from 13.02% to 14.02% [3]. - Analysts suggest that the low-risk interest rate environment and the ongoing "asset shortage" make dividend-paying assets appealing, with banks signaling stable earnings growth and improved asset quality [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The banking industry is expected to continue its earnings recovery trend into 2026, with a stabilizing operating environment and potential for net interest margin recovery, which could enhance profitability [4]. - The market may see a divergence in performance, with high-dividend large banks and quality regional banks likely to outperform, while smaller banks may face challenges related to asset quality and profitability [4].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 票 研 究 主动基金环比持平，被动基金增持 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 25Q4 主动基金对银行持仓比例环比持平于 1.9%，被动基金持仓比例环比+1.6pct 至 7.0%，其中宁波银行、兴业银行、中国银行、建设银行等获主动基金增配。 25Q4 基金对银行持仓点评 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年四季度基金重仓持股情况披露（主动基金包括普通股票型、 偏股混合型、灵活配置型，被动基金包括被动指数型、指数增强型）： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或 企稳》20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 127 regional banks in Jiangsu Province, highlighting their asset and liability structures, profitability, and asset quality [6][18] - Jiangsu's regional banks have shown a significant increase in asset growth, with major city commercial banks growing at 19.4%, surpassing the growth of listed city commercial banks at 14.2% [24][26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is projected to reach 48.4% in 2024, reflecting a gradual increase in lending activities [30] - Jiangsu's regional banks exhibit better return on assets (ROA) compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks outperforming by 16 basis points and rural commercial banks by 9 basis points [6][42] - The asset quality of Jiangsu's regional banks is superior to that of listed banks, with lower non-performing loan ratios and higher provision coverage ratios [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is focusing on new industrialization and strategic emerging industries, with significant contributions from cities like Nanjing and Suzhou [13][14] 2. Overview of 127 Regional Banks in Jiangsu - The report categorizes the banks into city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and others, with a total of 127 banks established between 2006 and 2015 [18][20] 3. Asset/Liability Structure - The asset growth of major city commercial banks is accelerating, while rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline in growth rates [24][26] - The loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is expected to increase to 48.4% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more lending [30] 4. Profitability - Jiangsu's regional banks have a higher ROA compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks showing a 16 basis point advantage [6][42] 5. Asset Quality/Capital Levels - Jiangsu's regional banks maintain a lower non-performing loan ratio compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks having a 30 basis point lower ratio [6][42]

资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出85.76亿元，今日有12个行业主力资金净流入，电力设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.50%，全天净流入资金123.23亿元，其次是有色金属行业， 日涨幅为2.73%，净流入资金为54.32亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有19个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金130.25亿元，其次 是通信行业，净流出资金为69.11亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、公用事业、建筑装饰等行 业。 沪指1月23日上涨0.33%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有23个，涨幅居前的行业为电力设备、有色金 属，涨幅分别为3.50%、2.73%。跌幅居前的行业为通信、银行，跌幅分别为1.52%、0.90%。银行行业 位居今日跌幅榜第二。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600036 | 招商银行 | -0.92 | 0.92 | -90149.12 | | 601166 | 兴业银行 | -1.19 | 0.81 | -26498.17 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Nuon New Power Flexible Allocation Mixed A (320018) reported a profit of 4.9971 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.2548 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 7.26%, and the fund size reached 65.8123 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][14]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the unit net value of the fund was 3.565 yuan. The fund manager, Li Xiaojie, has managed four funds over the past year, all of which have yielded positive returns. The highest growth rate among these funds was 48.16% for Nuon Low Carbon Economy Stock A, while the lowest was 5.05% for Nuon Huili Mixed A [3]. - The fund's net value growth rates over various periods are as follows: 2.18% over the last three months (ranking 1015/1286), 2.83% over the last six months (ranking 1146/1286), 16.89% over the last year (ranking 980/1286), and -15.38% over the last three years (ranking 1190/1286) [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund's Q4 holdings were primarily in dividend-related assets such as banks, oil and petrochemicals, and non-bank financials. The fund reduced its allocation in the banking sector while increasing its positions in non-bank financials and oil and petrochemicals [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last three years was -0.0472, ranking 1192/1275 among comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the last three years was 30.05%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 17.43% [10]. Portfolio Composition - As of December 31, the fund's average stock position over the last three years was 74.15%, compared to the industry average of 72.57%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 79.28% at the end of 2021 and a low of 51.69% by the end of Q3 2022 [13]. - The top ten holdings of the fund as of Q4 2025 included China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Petroleum, Oppein Home, China Shenhua, New China Life Insurance, Sinopec, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Yili Group, and Jiangsu Bank [17].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601229 | 上海银行 | 1 | -2.30 | 1329亿 | -7.43 | | 601128 | 常熟銀行 | | -1.51 | 238亿 | 1.99 | | 601998 | 中信銀行 | 1 | -1.47 | 4107亿 | -4.16 | | 601166 | 兴业银行 | 1 | -1.40 | 4038亿 | -9.40 | | 002142 | 宁波银行 | 1 | -1.39 | 1921亿 | 3.56 | | 601838 | 成都银行 | | -1.26 | 664亿 | -2.85 | | 600000 | 浦发银行 | 1 | -1.13 | 3500亿 | -15.51 | | 600919 | 江苏银行 | 兼 | -1.12 | 1786亿 | -3.44 | | 601398 | 工商银行 | 1 | -1.10 | 25626亿 | -9.33 | | 600926 | 杭州银行 | 张 | -1.04 | ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have been on the rise since 2025, leading to a surge in demand for gold-linked structured deposit products from various banks, with some products offering annualized returns as high as 8% [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - Multiple banks have launched gold-linked structured deposit products, with variations in minimum investment, duration, and yield, resulting in some popular products being sold out [1] - China Bank introduced a product with a minimum investment of 10,000 yuan and a term of 87 days, offering an annualized yield ranging from 0.2% to 5.2% [2] - Other banks, such as the Bank of Communications and Minsheng Bank, have also released competitive products with varying yields and investment thresholds [2] Group 2: Market Trends - As of December 2025, the balance of structured deposits in Chinese banks reached 4.25 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.01%, with unit structured deposits accounting for 69.49% of the total [3] - The trend of companies investing in structured deposits has increased, with numerous A-share companies announcing investments in gold-linked products [3] Group 3: Investment Appeal - The popularity of structured deposits is attributed to their dual advantages of capital protection and higher returns compared to traditional savings, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [4] - The rising gold prices, driven by its safe-haven and anti-inflation properties, have made gold-linked structured deposits attractive for investors seeking to capitalize on market gains [5]

Group 1 - The Inclusive Finance Prosperity Index reached 49.48 points in December 2025, an increase of 0.12 points from November and 0.61 points higher than the same period last year, indicating a steady growth in credit scale and effective financial support for small and micro enterprises [1] - The financing prosperity index was 54.82 points in December, a slight decrease of 0.01 points from November, with credit costs remaining at historical lows and a significant trend of optimizing credit structure [1] - The operational prosperity index was 48.44 points in December, an increase of 0.16 points from November, with manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI all entering the expansion zone, enhancing the operational vitality of market entities [1] Group 2 - In December, six industries showed an increase in operational prosperity index while three experienced a decline, with strong demand for meat and fresh agricultural products boosting the agricultural and transportation sectors [2] - Seasonal demand for community services, maintenance, and housekeeping services increased, further enhancing the vitality of the social service industry [2] - The Inclusive Finance Prosperity Index is jointly launched by the China Economic Information Agency, China Banking Association, China Construction Bank, and China Small and Medium Enterprises Association, with participation from several banks and operated by the Xinhua Index Research Institute [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% on January 22, with 22 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were building materials and defense, with increases of 4.09% and 3.23% respectively. The banking sector was among the top decliners, down by 0.43% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 21.612 billion yuan across the two markets. However, 12 sectors saw net inflows, with the telecommunications sector leading at a net inflow of 8.019 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.83%. The defense sector also performed well, with a net inflow of 5.713 billion yuan and a daily increase of 3.23% [1] - Conversely, 19 sectors experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net outflow of 13.206 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with a net outflow of 7.206 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals [1] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector saw a decline of 0.43% with a net outflow of 545 million yuan. Out of 42 stocks in this sector, 26 rose while 14 fell. Notably, 25 stocks had net inflows, with Jiangsu Bank leading at a net inflow of 224 million yuan, followed by Bank of Communications and Minsheng Bank with inflows of 152 million yuan and 98.929 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included China Merchants Bank, Huaxia Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, with outflows of 743 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 156 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the performance of key banking stocks based on their net capital flow and daily change: | Stock Code | Stock Name | Daily Change (%) | Turnover Rate (%) | Net Capital Flow (10,000 yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600036 | China Merchants Bank | -1.02 | 0.91 | -7426.622 | | 600015 | Huaxia Bank | -0.92 | 0.82 | -1836.242 | | 600000 | Shanghai Pudong Development Bank | -1.02 | 0.46 | -1555.792 | | 601939 | China Construction Bank | -1.92 | 1.44 | -1473.762 | | 601988 | Bank of China | -0.56 | 0.12 | -1247.776 | | 601288 | Agricultural Bank of China | -2.16 | 0.15 | -504.228 | | 601166 | Industrial Bank | -1.33 | 0.69 | -398.051 | | 601998 | CITIC Bank | -1.58 | 0.17 | -213.897 | | 002936 | Zhengzhou Bank | 0.53 | 1.30 | -147.699 | | 601665 | Qilu Bank | 1.65 | 0.89 | -144.610 | | 601577 | Changsha Bank | 0.75 | 0.32 | -122.400 | | 601187 | Xiamen Bank | -1.40 | 0.49 | -100.037 | | 603323 | Suning Bank | 1.01 | 1.52 | -89.489 | | 002839 | Zhangjiagang Bank | 0.90 | 1.07 | -67.650 | | 002958 | Qingnong Commercial Bank | 0.97 | 0.86 | -54.434 | | 601963 | Chongqing Bank | 0.10 | 0.48 | -44.601 | | 601997 | Guiyang Bank | 0.35 | 0.71 | -9.478 | | 600928 | Xi'an Bank | 0.82 | 0.49 | 47.776 | | 601860 | Zijin Bank | 0.73 | 1.18 | 49.415 | [2][3]

Group 1 - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.8% on January 22, with Qingdao Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Key individual stock performances in the city commercial bank sector included Qingdao Bank at 4.41 with a rise of 2.80%, and Ningbo Bank at 29.50 with a rise of 2.15% [1] Group 2 - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 396 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Qingdao Bank was 712,800 shares, with a transaction value of 312 million yuan [1][2] - The main fund inflow for Jiangsu Bank was 202 million yuan, representing 13.49% of its total trading volume [3]