❑ 风险提示：人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、快递价格战恶化、重大海上安 全事故、重大自然灾害等。 推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ❑ 物流：本周 TAC 上海出境空运价格指数周环比-3.9%，同比+0.7%。 地缘情绪推升油运运价,三大航发布 2025 年业绩预告 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，地缘情绪推升油运运价；基础设施方面，优选个股布局 红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面，关注 26 年 行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.2 6.1 16.5 相对表现 2.0 -7.3 -6.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—油轮 制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务 量同比增长 13.6%》2026-01-25 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—油运 景气度高涨，国常会研究部署多项促 消费举措》2026-01-18 3、《招商交通运输 ...

Strategy Overview - The core strategy indicates that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a hawkish policy stance, advocating for balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts, which may reverse market expectations for continued liquidity easing and strengthen the dollar, leading to a global tightening of dollar liquidity expectations and asset price reassessment [4][2] - In the short term, after a strong spring rally, the market may enter a rhythm adjustment period due to proactive policy guidance and increased overseas disturbances, presenting rotation opportunities for previously stagnant sectors [4][2] Real Estate Sector: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions, with a settlement area of 814,000 square meters, up 20.8% year-on-year, and a settlement amount of 17.37 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3%, primarily due to a negative investment income of 950 million yuan and an increase in minority shareholder losses [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company’s debt structure improved, with interest-bearing debt down 8.6% year-on-year to 68.2 billion yuan, and the average financing cost decreased by 48 basis points to 2.90% [9] - The company’s sales ranking improved to 15th in the industry, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline [10] Transportation Sector: CITIC Offshore Helicopter - CITIC Offshore Helicopter is a leading player in China's general aviation sector, operating the largest civil helicopter fleet in Asia with 84 advanced model helicopters [13] - The company has a strong revenue stream from offshore oil services, with nearly 70% of its revenue derived from this segment, and maintains a market share of over 60% in the offshore helicopter service market [14] - The general aviation market in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by policy guidance, with the number of general airports reaching 475 and the number of general aviation enterprises reaching 760 by 2024 [14] Transportation Sector: Air China - Air China is the only flag carrier in China, with passenger transport services accounting for nearly 91% of total revenue in 2024 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.14% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 5.11% [16] - The domestic passenger transport volume reached 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [17] Chemical Sector: Zhejiang Longsheng - The company reported a 6.47% year-on-year decline in revenue to 6.505 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 29.80%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [19][20] - The dye business saw a slight revenue decline of 3.17% to 3.632 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.40 percentage points to 34.17% [19] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain stable development amid industry challenges [19] Chemical Sector: Yake Technology - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.37% in the electronic materials segment, with a total revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [24] - The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the LNG and electronic materials sectors, with a focus on semiconductor chemical materials [23] New Energy Sector: Foster - Foster is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials market, maintaining a market share of around 50% [27] - The company is exploring new solutions for space environment applications, leveraging its existing technology in photovoltaic materials [28] Medical Sector: Mindray Medical - The company faced revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with a 23.77% year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue to 8.506 billion yuan [29] - International business revenue increased by 5.39%, accounting for about 50% of total revenue, indicating a growing presence in the global market [30] - The company is focusing on building a digital healthcare ecosystem through the integration of devices, IT, and AI technologies [31] Food and Beverage Sector: Kweichow Moutai - The company is navigating a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than short-term performance metrics [33] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 91.3% [34] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 8.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% [36] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel management services, with a focus on enhancing its operational capabilities [38] Electronics Sector: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company expects a revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from AI computing and the storage industry [39]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 25 年递延所得税资产转回影响，归母净利亏损， 经营端持续改善，看好行业供需格局下龙头弹性 公司公布 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-19 亿，2024 年为-2.37 亿；扣非归母净利-19 至-27 亿，2024 年为-25.40 亿。 2025Q4 归母净利为-31.70 至-37.70 亿，2024Q4 为-15.99 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母 净利为-35.44 至-43.44 亿，2024Q4 为-29.72 亿。 公司归母净利润口径亏损，系公司于资产负债表日对递延所得税资产的账面 价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资产。参考中国东航预告，东航利润 总额实现盈利，但因递延所得税资产转回，增加所得税费用，归母净利润口径 同为负，但经营口径大幅改善。 风险提示：经济大幅下滑、油价大幅上涨、汇率大幅贬值。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- ...

——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 春运客流持续增长，油运盈利 Q1 大增 [Table_Industry] 运输 本报告导读： 航空：2025 年主业盈利改善符合预期，春运客流持续增长，旺季表现可期。建议布 局超级周期长逻辑。油运：预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增数倍，期待超级牛市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《公路政策优化可期，公路法修正将是信 号》2026.01.26 运输《春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《全球经济温和复苏，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需 ...

中国国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空近日公布2025年年度业绩预告。报告期内，国 航、东航、南航三大航共减亏32.59亿至45.59亿元。南航和海航预计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利 润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 具体来看，中国国航预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13亿元到 人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27亿元。 中国东航预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。预计2025年度归属于上市 公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约为人民币-27亿元至-33亿元。2025年，中国东航全年完成运输 总周转量279.81亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50亿人次，分别同比增长10.82%和6.68%，利润总额预计为 人民币2亿元至3亿元。 据南方航空公告，预计公司2025年度将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币8.00 亿元到人民币10.00亿元。对于业绩预增的原因，公告称，南方航空积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精 准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成 ...

海航控股：预计归母净利润18亿元至22亿元 中国东航：预计归母净利润亏损13-18亿元 海航控股是25年的盈利王，其在业绩预告中表示，除了及时调整运力配给，持续加强精细化管理，推进 航线网络提质增效外，海南自由贸易港封关运作也带来了积极影响，带动了经营增长。此外，公司大多 数的租赁债务及部分贷款以外币结算（主要为美元），因2025年人民币升值，公司产生汇兑收益。 而南方航空净利润的扭亏则有厦航及货运的加持，四大航中南方航空是唯一物流资产仍在上市公司中 的。南方航空表示，公司积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益 成本管控，狠抓提质增效，经营效益持续改善。 据智通财经从南方航空获悉，截至2025年年底，南航集团新开及复航40余条国内国际航线，国际航线覆 盖全球46个国家和地区。 中国国航、中国东航的业绩预亏均归因于递延所得税资产。 就业绩预告来看，四大航空公司业绩分化明显： 中国国航：预计归母净利润亏损13亿元至19亿元 南方航空：预计归母净利润8亿元至10亿元 中国国航的情况也中国东航大致相同，其在公告中称，2025年公司全力以促生产、强经营、稳增长，经 营效益整体呈现增投增收降 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

另外两家航司的业绩仍处亏损中。其中，中国国航预计2025年实现归母净利润约为-13亿元至-19亿元； 中国东航预计2025年归母净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。 对于亏损的原因，两家航司皆提及，报告期内转回部分前期可抵扣亏损形成的递延所得税资产，增加所 得税费用，导致归母净利润为负值。 其中，南方航空、海航控股预计2025年净利润同比扭亏为盈，中国国航、中国东航仍亏损，亏损规模较 为接近。 南方航空方面，2025年，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润8亿元-10亿元，上年同期为-16.96 亿元。至于盈利的原因，南方航空表示，主要是因为公司积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精准投放运 力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成本管控，狠抓提质增效，经营效益持续改善。 智通财经记者还从南方航空获悉，截至2025年年底，南航集团新开及复航40余条国内国际航线，国际航 线覆盖全球46个国家和地区。 海航控股预计去年实现归母净利润18亿元-22亿元。公司表示，除了及时调整运力配给，持续加强精细 化管理，推进航线网络提质增效外，海南自由贸易港封关运作也带来了积极影响，带动了经营增长。此 外，公司大多数的租赁债务及部分贷款以外币结 ...

1月30日晚间，国航、东航、南航相继发布2025年度业绩预报。报告期内，三大航共减亏32.59亿—45.59亿元。其中，南航预计净利润为8亿—10亿元，同比 扭亏。虽然国航和东航预计仍出现亏损，但整体业绩回暖，东航利润总额实现同比扭亏。2025年，我国民航业延续稳健增长趋势，全行业完成运输总周转量 1640.8亿吨公里、旅客运输量7.7亿人次。三大航通过优化航线网络布局、平衡量价关系稳定收益、加强成本管控等多项举措，持续改善经营效益。 南航实现全年业绩扭亏 三大航的业绩预报显示，2025年南航预计净利润为8亿—10亿元，东航净亏损13亿—18亿元，国航净亏损13亿—19亿元。三大航共减亏32.59亿—45.59亿元。 其中，南航率先冲线，成为三大航中首个实现全年扭亏为盈的航司，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为1.3亿—1.9亿元，也实现了扭亏。 东航归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损为27亿—33亿元，这一数值在2024年为49.83亿元。但东航的业绩预报显示，2025年利润总额预计为2 亿—3亿元，实现扭亏为盈。国航归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损为19亿—27亿元，这一数值在2024年为 ...