Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3, while total revenue showed a year-on-year increase [1] - The recovery in air travel demand is expected to continue, with RPK surpassing 2019 levels [2] - The company is facing challenges with revenue per kilometer declining, but cost improvements are anticipated [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 128.2 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.06% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 48.6 billion yuan, a 6.03% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 4.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.31% year-on-year [1] Demand and Capacity - Domestic air travel demand has shown a recovery, with RPK increasing by 34% year-on-year and 22% compared to the same period in 2019 [2] - International RPK growth was particularly strong at 168% year-on-year, indicating robust recovery in overseas routes [2] - The company operated 924 aircraft as of September 2024, an increase of 16 aircraft since the beginning of the year [3] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The revenue per kilometer (RPK) for the first three quarters was 0.48 yuan/ASK, down 0.03 year-on-year, while Q3 RPK was 0.50 yuan/ASK, down 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The cost per kilometer (ASK) for the first three quarters was 0.45 yuan/ASK, up 1.2% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued recovery in civil aviation demand, supported by both domestic and international factors [3] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, with expected figures of 237 million yuan (down 97%), 6.075 billion yuan (down 39%), and 10.184 billion yuan (down 16%) respectively [4] - Despite the challenges, the report maintains a positive outlook on the recovery of the aviation market and the potential for profit improvement under constrained supply conditions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (China National Airlines) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 128.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.06% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.31% to 4.144 billion yuan [2][4] - The report highlights a strong recovery in regional and international flight capacity, reaching over 90% of the levels seen in 2019, although revenue performance remains weak [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's total ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) grew by 12.48% year-on-year, with domestic ASK slightly declining by 0.24% and regional/international ASK increasing by 61.27% [3] - The total RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) increased by 20.74% year-on-year, with domestic RPK growing by 8.12% and regional/international RPK by 71.06% [3] - The overall passenger load factor reached 80.98%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points year-on-year, although it remains 1.15 percentage points lower than in 2019 [3] Cost and Profitability - The operating cost for Q3 2024 was 42.277 billion yuan, up 10.82% year-on-year, but the unit cost per ASK decreased by 1.47% to 0.439 yuan per seat kilometer [4] - The company's gross profit margin was reported at 13.06%, down 3.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a significant reduction in operating costs due to a decline in oil prices, with domestic aviation kerosene prices dropping by 13.3% in October 2024 compared to the average price in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 166.79 billion yuan, 177.55 billion yuan, and 186.33 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.88 billion yuan, 7.67 billion yuan, and 11.94 billion yuan [6][7]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2024年11月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00753 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111) with a target price of 8.45 CNY, representing a 15% upside from the current price of 7.33 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in Q3 2024 profit of 4.7% year-on-year, amounting to 4.14 billion CNY, while revenue increased by 6.0% year-on-year to 48.63 billion CNY [1][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 128.15 billion CNY, up 21.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.36 billion CNY, a significant increase of 72.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report highlights the potential for strong price elasticity in the aviation sector due to supply-demand gaps, especially if oil prices decline [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: - Q3 2024 revenue was 48.63 billion CNY, up 6.0% year-on-year, while profit was 4.14 billion CNY, down 2.3% year-on-year [1][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 128.15 billion CNY, up 21.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 1.36 billion CNY, up 72.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - **Cost and Expenses**: - Q3 2024 operating costs were 42.3 billion CNY, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs estimated at 14.6 billion CNY, down 2.9% year-on-year [1][5]. - The total operating cost for the first three quarters of 2024 was 119.7 billion CNY, up 23.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - **Key Ratios**: - The passenger load factor for Q3 2024 was 81.0%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.01 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 887 [1][7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the aviation sector is a classic cyclical industry, and once demand picks up, the supply growth will lag, leading to significant price increases [1][5]. - The anticipated decline in aviation fuel prices could further enhance profit margins, similar to trends observed in 2014-2015 [1][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2024, but long-term profitability is expected to improve due to operational efficiency and a decrease in oil prices [1][5]. - The recovery in domestic demand has led to a significant increase in passenger load factor, although revenue levels remain under pressure due to excess supply in the industry [1][6]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment and slow recovery in international routes [20][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.1% [1][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 2.3% to 4.14 billion yuan [1][5]. - Passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) grew by 14.4%, 20.7%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][6]. Cost and Efficiency Summary - The company's operating costs for Q3 2024 were 42.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while unit ASK operating costs decreased by 1.5% to 0.44 yuan [1][6]. - The average price of aviation kerosene decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, contributing to lower unit costs [1][6]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 550 million yuan, 5.26 billion yuan, and 8.39 billion yuan, respectively, with significant downward adjustments of -94%, -61%, and -47% [20][21]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as the aviation market stabilizes and demand increases [18][20]. Valuation Comparison - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be in the range of 10 to 15 times, comparable to peers in the industry [18][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation (601111) is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that China National Aviation's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The report notes strong operational data during the peak travel season, with significant recovery in both domestic and international travel demand [2] - The report adjusts the 2024 domestic ticket price growth forecast to -13% and the international recovery rate to 100%, reflecting slower-than-expected recovery in international routes and low ticket prices [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 48.63 billion yuan, up 6.03% year-on-year, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 1.362 billion yuan, a 72.1% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The estimated passenger kilometer yield for Q3 was 0.62 yuan, a 0.33 yuan increase compared to 2019, but a 12.18% decrease compared to 2023 [2] - Q3 operating costs were 42.277 billion yuan, with a unit cost of 0.44 yuan, reflecting a 14.15% increase compared to 2019 [2] Operational Data - In Q3 2024, the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 30.17% compared to 2019, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 28.35% [2] - Domestic ASK recovered to 157% of the 2019 level, while domestic RPK reached 154.4% [2] - International ASK and RPK showed significant recovery, with ASK at 92.02% and RPK at 89.29% of the 2019 levels, marking increases of 166% and 177.08% year-on-year, respectively [2] Fleet and Market Data - As of Q3 2024, the total fleet size of China National Aviation reached 924 aircraft, a 36% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The market capitalization of the circulating A-shares is 85.307 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.33 yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with a projected net profit of 5.81 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 10.46 billion yuan in 2023 [7][11] - The passenger transport volume for the first three quarters of 2024 shows significant recovery, with domestic, international, and regional passenger numbers reaching 101.75 million, 12.05 million, and 3.54 million respectively, marking increases of 147.78%, 93.48%, and 83.27% compared to 2019 [2] - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.50% [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is 6.56%, showing improvement compared to 2019 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 141.1 billion yuan in 2023, 165.54 billion yuan in 2024, 181.94 billion yuan in 2025, and 195.90 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 166.74%, 17.32%, 9.91%, and 7.68% respectively [7][11] - The net profit forecast indicates a turnaround with expected figures of 5.81 billion yuan in 2024, 48.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 67.05 billion yuan in 2026 [7][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2024, 0.30 yuan in 2025, and 0.41 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 204.48X, 24.66X, and 17.71X [7][11] Operational Insights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates a fleet of 924 aircraft, with ongoing optimization of its fleet structure [2] - The company has introduced 12 new aircraft and retired 3 during 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China National Aviation (601111) [4] Core Views - The Q3 earnings of China National Aviation significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong profitability and effective revenue management strategies [2][3] - The company is advised to adopt a contrarian investment strategy during the off-peak season in Q4 [2][3] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 41 billion yuan, which is a substantial improvement compared to the same period in 2023 and 2019, exceeding market expectations [3] - The total net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 14 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in previous years [3] Operational Metrics - The company’s available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by approximately 13% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery in operational capacity [3] - The passenger load factor rose by over 5 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, reflecting a more aggressive revenue management approach compared to competitors [3] Market Outlook - The demand for air travel continues to grow, with excess capacity being gradually absorbed, and a positive trend in supply-demand recovery is anticipated [3] - The international flight capacity is expected to improve, particularly with the recent lifting of restrictions on Chinese airlines by Canada, which may accelerate recovery on North American routes [3] Long-term Value Proposition - The company’s high-quality route network and customer base are expected to enhance long-term profitability, with a projected net profit of 8 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 150 billion yuan by 2026 [3] - The strategic acquisition of Shandong Airlines has positioned the company favorably in terms of fleet size and operational efficiency [3] Target Price - The target price for the stock is maintained at 13.52 yuan, with the current market price at 7.33 yuan [4]

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 中国国航 (601111.SH) 买入(维持评级) 业绩 2024 年 10 月 30 日，中国国航发布 2024 年前三季度报告。2024 年前三季度公司营业收入为 1281.5 亿元，同比增长 21.5%；归母 净利润为 13.6 亿元，同比增长 72%。其中 Q3 公司实现营业收入 486.3 亿元，同比增长 6.0%；实现归母净利润 41.4 亿元，同比下 降 2.3%。 经营分析 Q3 出行需求旺盛，量增推动收入增长。2024Q3 公司营业收入同比 增长 4.6%，主要系旺季量增影响。Q3 公司收入客公里同比增长 21%，其中国内线增长 8%，国际线增长 77%，地区线增长 28%。2024Q3 公司单位 RPK 营业成本同比下降 12%，主要系 2023Q3 旺季票价基 数较高，以及 2024Q3 淡季需求较弱。量增对冲价跌影响，公司仍 取得了单季度营收的增长。 费用率同比改善，盈利能力同比下滑。2024Q3 受周转提升影响， 公司单位 ASK 营业成本为 0.44 元，同比下降 1%。2024Q3 受票价 下降影响，公司毛利率为 13.1%，同比下降 3.8pct ...

证券代码：601111 股票简称：中国国航 公告编号：2024-044 中国国际航空股份有限公司 第六届监事会第十九次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 中国国际航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届监事会第十九次会 议（以下简称"本次会议"）的通知于 2024 年 10 月 23 日以电子邮件的方式发 出。本次会议于 2024 年 10 月 30 日以书面议案方式召开。本次会议应出席监事 5 人，实际出席监事 5 人。本次会议的召集和召开符合《公司法》等相关法律、 行政法规、规章、规范性文件及公司章程的规定，合法、有效。 二、监事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过了如下议案： （一）关于 2024 年第三季度报告的议案 表决情况：赞成 5 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票，表决结果：通过。 审议通过公司 2024 年第三季度报告，详情请见公司同日披露的《中国国际 航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告》。 （二）关于公司与中国航空集团有限公司及其下属企业持续性关联（连） ...