证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中免（601888） 2024 年三季报点评：业绩符合预告值，离岛 免税销售继续承压 2024 年 10 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|-------|---------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 54433 | 67540 | 56940 | 63455 | 70541 | | 同比（ % ） | (19.57) | 24.08 | (15.69) | 11.44 | 11.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5030 | 6714 | 5088 | 6021 | 6973 | | 同比（ % ） | (47.89) | 33.46 | (24.22) | 18.35 | 15.80 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.43 | ...

-60% 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 公司点评报告 · 社会服务行业 经营承压,关注市内店落地进展 核心观点 ● 事件:公司发布 2024年三季报,前三季度公司实现营收 430.2 亿元人民币/ 同比-15%, 归母净利 39.2 亿元/同比-25%, 扣非归母净利 38.7 亿元/同比- 25%。 ● 受海南市场表现不佳影响,Q3 营收降幅扩大。公司 Q3 实现营收 117.6 亿 元/同比-22%,降幅较 Q1-Q2 扩大,低于我们预期。其中,我们预计海南渠道 的疲弱仍是营收下滑的主要原因。根据海口海关数据,7-8月海南离岛免税销 售额各降36%、31%,主要因购物人次下降21%、45%。此外,受实物消费偏 弱影响,我们预计 Q3公司其他渠道(机场、口岸、完税电商)销售额同比持 平或略有下降。 ● 受经营杠杆及渠道结构变化影响,毛利率、净利率承压。公司前三季度毛利 率 32.57%/同比+1.0pct,但受需求端不振影响,Q3 公司毛利率录得 32.0%/ 同比-2.5pct。此外,由于公司于海南市场的固定成本占比较高,受销售额下降 影响,净利率明显承压,抵消了机场租金协议调整带来的正面影响, ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|中国中免（601888） 海南市场销售承压，口岸免税大幅增长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月01日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告。2024 年前三季度公司实现营收 430.2 亿元，同比下滑 15.4%， 归母净利润 39.2 亿元，同比下滑 24.7%，扣非归母净利润 38.7 亿元，同比下滑 25.4%。其中， 2024Q3 实现营收 117.6 亿元，同比下滑 21.5%，归母净利润 6.4 亿元，同比下滑 52.5%，扣非 归母净利润为 6.4 亿元，同比下滑 52.5%。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月01日 中国中免(601888) 海南市场销售承压，口岸免税大幅增长 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------| | | ...

中国中免（601888.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 口岸免税恢复良好，离岛免税承压静待修复 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 公司发布24Q3财报。24Q1-Q3，公司实现营收430.21亿元，同比-15.38%， 实现归母净利润 39.19 亿元，同比-24.72%，实现扣非归母净利润 38.73 亿元， 同比-25.4%。其中，24Q3，实现营收 117.56 亿元，同比-21.52%，实现归母净 利润 6.36 亿元，同比-52.53%，实现扣非归母净利润 6.35 亿元，同比-52.49%， 主要是受消费者消费意愿不足及 9 月份台风等因素的影响，公司销售收入下降所 致。 ➢ 24Q3 公司毛利率略降。24Q1-Q3，公司毛利率为 33.12%/yoy+1.37 pct， 公 司 销 售 费 用 率 / 管 理 费 用 率 / 研 发 费 用 率 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 15.8%/3.3%/0.02%/-1.52%，同比各+2.15/+0.27/0/-0.38 pct，综合影响下， 24Q1-Q3，公司归母净利率为 9.11%/y ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 85.2 RMB [2][3] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to weak Hainan duty-free sales, while airport duty-free sales continued to recover [2] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts were revised down to 2.38 RMB (-0.46), 2.84 RMB (-0.36), and 3.26 RMB (-0.32) respectively [2] - Airport and urban duty-free sales are expected to contribute to mid-term performance growth [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 11.756 billion RMB, down 21.52% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 636 million RMB, down 52.53% YoY [2] - Hainan duty-free sales in Q3 2024 dropped 36% YoY, with shopping人次 down 27% and average spending per customer down 12% [2] - Beijing airport duty-free sales grew over 140% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, while Shanghai airport duty-free sales increased nearly 60% [2] Operational Highlights - The company introduced 165 new brands in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic brands accounting for over 40% [2] - Gross margin in Q3 2024 was 32.0%, down 2.4 percentage points YoY, impacted by exchange rates and promotional activities [2] - Urban duty-free policies are being implemented, with related system对接稳步推进, expected to contribute to mid-term业绩增量 [2] Market Data - The stock's 52-week price range is 53.76-96.30 RMB, with a current price of 67.83 RMB [4] - Total market capitalization is 140.331 billion RMB, with 2.069 billion shares outstanding [4] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to be 8.8% in 2024, increasing to 10.8% by 2026 [8] - P/E ratio is forecasted at 28.51 for 2024, decreasing to 20.83 by 2026 [8] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 33.0% in 2024 to 35.3% in 2026 [8]

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月01日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit [1]. - The company is increasing marketing investments and enhancing its tourism retail format, particularly in the duty-free sector [2][3]. - Despite a challenging consumption environment, the company is focusing on expanding its marketing and discount efforts, which has led to a decrease in gross margin [2]. - The company is exploring new retail models, including partnerships with domestic brands for overseas sales and the establishment of exclusive stores in key tourist areas [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 43.021 billion yuan, down 15.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.72% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 32.0%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 18.4%, 4.0%, and 0.1%, respectively, with year-on-year increases [2]. Market Expansion - The company is deepening its focus on the tourism retail sector and enhancing the role of duty-paid consumption [3]. - A new exclusive store for a domestic liquor brand opened in Sanya, indicating the company's strategy to innovate within the duty-free market [3]. - The company is also expanding its overseas channels, such as opening a duty-free store in Tokyo [3]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 6.69 billion yuan, 7.66 billion yuan, and 8.76 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.23 yuan, 3.70 yuan, and 4.23 yuan [4].

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临 2024-035 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十八次会议（现场结合通讯方式） 决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十八次 会议于 2024 年 10 月 16 日以电子邮件方式发出通知，于 2024 年 10 月 30 日在公司 会议室以现场结合通讯方式召开。本次会议应参加表决董事 8 人：范云军、刘昆、 常筑军、王月浩、王轩、葛明、王瑛、王强。会议由董事长范云军主持，公司部分 监事和高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召开符合《公司法》等法律、行政法 规、部门规章、规范性文件以及《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事认真讨论，会议审议通过了以下议案： 提交董事会审议前，该议案已经公司审计与风险管理委员会全票审议通过。 表决结果：同意 8 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票，该议案获得通过。 特此公告。 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 ...

中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、 主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|----------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][4]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance due to ongoing pressure in the Hainan duty-free market, with a 22% year-on-year decrease in revenue for Q3 2024 and a 52% drop in net profit [3][4]. - Despite the current challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by the company's core competitive advantages in scale, brand, and operational management. A recovery in consumer demand is anticipated as the economic environment improves [4]. - The company is expected to see a rebound in net profit, projected at 5 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.2 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 29, 25, and 23 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 43.021 billion, down 15.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.92 billion, down 24.70% year-on-year. The gross margin for the main business was 32.57%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 11.756 billion, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 638 million, also down 52% year-on-year [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The Hainan duty-free market continues to face challenges, with sales in July and August 2024 showing declines of 35.9% and 33.1% year-on-year, respectively. The number of shoppers has also decreased significantly [4]. - Conversely, airport duty-free sales have shown significant recovery, with sales at Beijing airports increasing over 140% year-on-year and Shanghai airports nearly 60% [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its product matrix and optimizing its product structure, particularly increasing the proportion of domestic brands, which has positively impacted sales and consumer recognition [4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming closure of Hainan, which is expected to improve market sentiment and performance in the long term [4].